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EURUSD: Bears focus on 1.0800 and US Inflation cluesEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in eight weeks as traders await September's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, especially after the previous day’s FOMC Minutes drowned the Euro pair. Bears keep the driver’s seat Apart from the US Dollar’s run-up post-Fed Minutes, the EURUSD pair’s confirmation of “Double Tops” bearish chart formation and a clear break of a 15-week-old rising support line add strength to the downside bias. It’s worth noting, however, that the oversold RSI (14) line and sluggish MACD signals challenge intraday sellers, along with the pre-data consolidation. Key technical levels to watch The 50% Fibonacci level from the EURUSD’s June to September rise, around 1.0940, limits immediate downside. The next significant support is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.0870, known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio.” If the price breaks below 1.0870, it could lead to a drop toward the bearish target from the "Double Tops" pattern, around 1.0800. On the upside, the EURUSD recovery is unlikely unless it surpasses the 1.1010 level. The previous support line, now acting as resistance, is near 1.1000. In a case where the Euro buyers manage to stay onboard past 1.1010, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the double tops, respectively near 1.1085 and 1.1200, will be on their radars. Further downside expected While an oversold RSI and potentially softening US inflation data may pose challenges for US Dollar bulls, EURUSD bears remain encouraged. The confirmation of a bearish chart formation, combined with the European Central Bank's (ECB) more dovish stance compared to the Federal Reserve (Fed), keeps the sellers optimistic about further declines.
by MTradingGlobal
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GBPUSD: Focus on 50-SMA, key horizontal support and Fed MinutesGBPUSD struggles to hold onto early gains after bouncing off a three-month support level. As bearish momentum builds, traders closely watch for insights from the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Multiple catalysts favoring Cable sellers The Pound Sterling is finding it hard to sustain a rebound from the 12-week-old support zone. Bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14) add to the negative sentiment. Additionally, last week's confirmation of a bearish rising wedge pattern enhances the resolve of GBPUSD sellers, pointing to continued downward pressure. Key technical levels to watch While sellers currently dominate the GBPUSD market, the 50-day SMA around 1.3085 poses an immediate challenge to further declines, with crucial support around 1.3060-1.3040 just below. If these levels break, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.2935 and 1.2780 could test sellers before directing them to the bearish pattern’s theoretical target of 1.2450. A corrective bounce for GBPUSD seems unlikely to gain credence unless it breaks above the wedge's lower line near 1.3280. That said, the immediate resistance levels are at 1.3100 and 1.3200. If the price holds above 1.3280, bulls may aim for a yearly high of approximately 1.3435 and the wedge's upper line around 1.3510. Bears to dominate Considering the bearish technical signals and the potential for the US Dollar to consolidate its previous monthly losses—supported by positive economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve bias—the GBPUSD pair is likely to decline further. This outlook holds unless today’s Fed Minutes and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data underperform, which could dampen the US Dollar's strength.
by MTradingGlobal
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USDJPY: Sellers pay attention to 146.40, Fed Minutes and US CPIEarly Tuesday, USDJPY remains weak after retreating from a seven-week high. The pair defends the previous day’s pullback from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as traders await key events this week, including the US Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Bulls remain in the driver’s seat Despite the pre-data consolidation and retreat from the 100-EMA, USDJPY's stronghold above the 50-EMA, bullish MACD signals, and a positive RSI (14) suggest an overall upside bias. Important technical levels to watch USDJPY faces immediate downside support in the 147.35-20 range, but the key level to watch is the 50-EMA near 146.40. A break below this could lead to a quick drop to 145.00 and the late September low around 141.65. The 140.45-20 area and the psychological level at 140.00 may pose strong resistance for sellers. On the upside, a break above the 100-EMA around 148.75 won’t be enough for buyers to regain control, as resistance from the 200-EMA and mid-August high near 149.40 will be crucial. If USDJPY stays above 149.40, the 150.00 mark and early 2024 high near 150.90 will be key targets for bulls. Data/events are the key USDJPY's technical outlook is bullish, supported by a hawkish Fed stance following recent comments from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell and the US employment report. However, growing concerns about the Bank of Japan, potential softness in US inflation data, and Powell's challenges in maintaining a hawkish tone could attract sellers to the Yen pair.
by MTradingGlobal
Bitcoin: BTCUSD extends recovery from 200-SMA to trim lossesBitcoin (BTCUSD) rises to a week’s high, continuing its rebound from the 200-SMA and breaking through the 100-bar simple moving average (SMA). BTCUSD bulls aim for a new three-month high! Along with a solid bounce from the 200-SMA, a positive RSI (14) and bullish MACD signals support BTCUSD’s push past the 100-SMA. This indicates potential for more gains, even though the RSI is nearing overbought territory, suggesting limited upward movement soon. Key technical levels to watch… With Bitcoin’s strong recovery from the 200-SMA and a successful run-up beyond the 100-SMA, buyers are ready to challenge a six-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $64,700. However, they may face hurdles at the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement of July-August downside near $65,700 and an upward trendline from late August around $66,900 afterward. On the downside, the 100-SMA around $63,300 is holding BTCUSD up, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support is near $62,200. That said, another key support is found at the 200-day moving average of around $60,700, with the psychological level of $60,000 serving as buyers' last line of defense. Recovery remains preferable… With Bitcoin bouncing back from key moving averages and a potential pullback in the US Dollar due to upcoming US inflation data and FOMC minutes, BTCUSD looks set for further upside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MTradingGlobal
1
USDJPY: "Death Cross" makes sellers optimisticUSDJPY ends a four-day decline and rebounds from its lowest point in a month as traders start the US inflation week with mixed feelings, especially after a disappointing employment report on Friday. Sellers are in control Despite the brief pause to recover from an ascending support line from late December 2023, the "Death Cross" on the moving averages and a possible bearish cross on the MACD suggest that sellers remain dominant. Technical levels to watch Given that the RSI is nearly oversold and the market is adjusting its previous movements, USDJPY might continue its recent recovery towards a resistance zone from a month ago, around 143.45-60. After that, a downward-sloping resistance line from early August, near 146.60, will challenge buyers before they can take full control. If they succeed, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from July 2023 to 2024, around 149.60, and the 200-SMA level at 151.05 could attract more buying interest. On the other hand, sellers might look for a daily close below a long-term rising support line, around 141.90. They should also watch for the late 2023 low around 140.25 and the 140.00 level, which could provide additional support before aiming for the mid-2023 low of 137.25. What next? The USDJPY pair might see a rebound as the market consolidates before the important US inflation data is released on Thursday. However, the bearish trend will continue unless the price stays below the 200-SMA.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers stay optimistic around mid-$2,400s within triangleGold has ended a two-day drop by bouncing off its 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) within a symmetrical triangle pattern that's been forming for seven weeks. This bounce supports the idea that the Fed might cut rates, together with the positive MACD signals and the trend-favorable RSI line. The key levels to watch are the triangle's range of $2,475 to $2,393 and the 50-day EMA support at $2,391. If gold moves past $2,475, it could test an upward resistance line from early April, reaching around $2,498. After that, $2,500 will be an additional hurdle for the metal before potentially rising to $2,522 and $2,562, which are based on 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions of gold's moves from March to July. If gold falls below $2,391, it might drop to the late July low of about $2,353 and then to $2,350. There's also a strong support region between $2,293 and $2,285 from late April to June, which if broken, could push gold towards $2,200. Overall, gold is performing well due to positive technical indicators and concerns about possible US Fed rate cuts, supported by recent US inflation data.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY eyes another bear run, focus on Japan GDP, US inflationEarly Monday, the USDJPY has risen slightly above 147.00 after its first weekly gain in six weeks. This increase follows a rebound from a seven-month low. The rise is supported by a recovery in the RSI and positive signals from the MACD. However, the pair’s failure to defend a week-long bullish trend channel and its continued trading below the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) still keeps bears hopeful. Additionally, a downward trend line from early July suggests that sellers still control the market. The USDJPY is likely to stay under pressure unless it can rise above a resistance line near 150.80. Currently, the 50-EMA and the lower end of the rising channel, around 147.85-90, are key levels to watch. The 150.00 level may offer additional resistance, and if the pair can surpass 150.80, it might target around 155.50. On the downside, immediate support levels to watch are 145.50 and 143.30. If the price falls further, the monthly low near 141.70 and the psychological level of 140.00 could come into play. If the USDJPY drops below 140.00, it might test the mid-2023 low around 137.25. While technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for USDJPY, traders should be cautious due to upcoming economic data releases, including Japan’s Q2 GDP and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls run out of steam near 1.3000, UK inflation eyedGBPUSD seesaws at the highest level in a year ahead of the UK’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June. In doing so, the Cable pair justifies the overbought RSI (14) line as buyers struggle around a one-year-old horizontal resistance zone, close to 1.2995-3000. It’s worth noting, however, that the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from July 2023, now support around 1.2840, keeps the bulls hopeful. Even if the pair drops beneath the 1.2840 resistance-turned-support, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2627 will be the last defense of the bulls. It should be observed that the 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the quote’s July-October 2023 downturn, respectively near 1.2910 and 1.2720, are additional downside filters to watch during the bear run. Alternatively, GBPUSD bulls need validation from the upbeat UK inflation clues and the 1.2995-3000 upside hurdle to keep the reins. Following that, the Pound Sterling could rise toward the previous yearly high of 1.3142. However, the 1.3100 threshold may act as an intermediate halt during the rise. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3142, the late 2021 swing low of around 1.3150-55 and the 1.3200 round figure can test the bulls before directing them toward the January 2022 low of near 1.3355. Overall, GBPUSD appears overdue for a pullback but the bullish trend could remain intact.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers need validation from $2,387-93 hurdle & US inflationGold price rises for the third consecutive day while paring weekly loss ahead of the key US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. In doing so, the precious metal justifies the bullish crossover of the 100-SMA to the 200-SMA and the firmer RSI (14) line. However, a month-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding $2,387-93 joins the sluggish MACD signals to challenge the bullion buyers. Should the quote stay firmer past $2,393, its run-up toward the $2,400 threshold and then to a 13-week-long horizontal resistance area near $2,431-34 will be quick. It’s worth mentioning that the XAUUSD’s successful rise past $2,434 won’t hesitate to renew the all-time high, currently marked in May at around $2,450. Meanwhile, a pullback in the Gold price highlights a fortnight-long rising support line, close to $2,365 at the latest. Following that, the 100-SMA and the 200-SMA will test the XAUUSD sellers around $2,342 and $2,337 respectively. In a case where the precious metal remains bearish past $2,337, traders can aim for $2,318 before jostling with an ascending support line from early April surrounding $2,298. If the bullion price holds onto the downward trajectory below $2,298, the $2,265 will act as the final defense of the buyers. Overall, Gold price remains in the bullish trajectory ahead of important data and hence softer/mixed prints of the US CPI can allow the buyers to cross the immediate upside hurdle.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
RBNZ’s dovish halt, downbeat China CPI weigh on NZDUSD Early Wednesday, NZDUSD prints the biggest daily fall in a fortnight on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) dovish halt, as well as a softer print of China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. That said, the RBNZ matched market expectations for holding the benchmark rate unchanged but showed readiness to welcome easy monetary policy if inflation slows further. On the other hand, China's CPI dropped to -0.2% MoM and 0.2% YoY in June versus -0.1% and 0.4% market expectations, from -0.1% and 0.3% in that order. With this, NZDUSD drops more than 0.50% on a day as sellers attack the 200-SMA support of 0.6076. Adjacent to that is strong technical support comprising the 100-SMA and an 11-week-old rising support line, close to 0.6065 by the press time. In a case where the Kiwi pair prints a daily closing beneath 0.6065, a slew of peaks and troughs surrounding 0.6040-35 will test the sellers before directing them to the 0.6000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, an impending bull cross on the MACD and downbeat RSI joins the key supports to signal the NZDUSD pair’s corrective bounce, which in turn highlights a three-week-long horizontal resistance area near 0.6150-55. Should the Kiwi pair manage to cross the immediate upside hurdle, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the quote’s fall from December 2023 to April 2024, near 0.6175, will precede a six-month-old horizontal resistance zone around 0.6215-22 to act as the final defenses of the bears. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to witness a corrective bounce but the recovery remains doubtful below 0.6222.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls attack six-week-old on strong Australian InflationAUDUSD jumps nearly 50 pips after Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose the most in six months early Wednesday, up 4.0% MoM versus 3.8% expected and 3.6% prior. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-May, close to 0.6680 by the press time, joins sluggish MACD signals and unimpressive RSI conditions to challenge the Aussie pair buyers. Even if the quote manages to cross the 0.6680, a 5.5-month-long falling resistance line surrounding the 0.6710 and 0.6730 mark will be the final defenses of the bears before giving control to the bulls targeting the 0.6800 threshold and the late 2023 peak of 0.6870. Conversely, the weekly low of near 0.6625 will challenge the AUDUSD sellers during the pair’s fresh fall. Following that, the 100 and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) might act as tough supports near 0.6590 while the monthly low of around 0.6575 acts as an additional downside filter. Should the quote remain bearish past 0.6575, the previous monthly low of 0.6465 and 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of October-December 2023 upside, near 0.6400, could lure the Aussie pair sellers. Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s further upside appears difficult unless providing a daily closing beyond 0.6730.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD stays on bear’s radar ahead of UK inflation, BoEGBPUSD stays defensive after recovering from a one-month low in the last two days. That said, the Cable pair’s latest inaction could be linked to the trader’s cautious mood ahead of the UK’s top-tier data/events, namely Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Announcements. However, the quote’s sustained trading beneath a nine-week-old ascending trend channel and a convergence of the 50 and 100-bar Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) keep the Pound Sterling sellers hopeful. Even if the pair manage to cross the aforementioned EMA confluence of around 1.2725-30 and also trade successfully beyond the stated channel’s bottom line, close to 1.2765 at the latest, a three-week-old ascending resistance line surrounding 1.2885 will challenge the upside momentum. On the flip side, a fortnight-long horizontal support region surrounding 1.2640 and the 1.2600 threshold restricts short-term declines of the GBPUSD pair. Following that, the previous monthly low of nearly 1.2445 and the yearly bottom marked in April around 1.2300 may entertain the Pound Sterling sellers. In a case where the Cable pair remains bearish past 1.2300, it becomes vulnerable to slump toward the late 2023 low of near 1.2035 and then to the 1.2000 psychological magnet. To sum up, the GBPUSD pair’s latest rebound appears elusive as it keeps the previous week’s downside break of technical supports, now resistances. Also favoring the pair sellers is an absence of oversold RSI and likely downbeat UK catalysts.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD traders should focus on 1.0790, US inflation and FedEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in six weeks as the pair traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Also important are the final readings of Germany’s inflation data for May and speeches from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials. In doing so, the Euro pair keeps the week-start fall beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a one-month-old ascending support line, a part of the short-term bullish triangle. Not only the downside break of the key SMA and rejection of the bullish chart pattern but the bearish MACD signals and an absence of the oversold RSI (14) also keep the pair sellers hopeful. The same highlights February’s low of around 1.0695 as immediate support to watch during the quote’s fresh downside. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line from October 2023 near 1.0650 will act as the final defense of the buyers. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 1.0650, it becomes vulnerable to refresh the yearly low, currently around the 1.0600 threshold. On the contrary, softer US inflation and the Fed’s inability to convince the policy hawks despite avoiding the looming rate cut can trigger the EURUSD pair’s recovery. In that case, a convergence of the 200-SMA and support-turned-resistance line around 1.0790 will be in the spotlight. Should the Euro buyers manage to provide a daily closing beyond the 1.0790 hurdle, as well as cross the 1.0800 round figure, the 50% Fibonacci ratio of its July-October 2023 decline, around 1.0865, and then to a five-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0915, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that the buyers will face heavy resistance past 1.0915 as the aforementioned triangle’s top line of 1.0920 will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio near 1.0960 and an 11-month-old falling trend line surrounding 1.1010 to restrict the further upside. Overall, EURUSD remains on the bear’s radar beneath 1.1010 while 1.0790 acts as an immediate key upside hurdle.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD fades bounce off 200-SMA as EU/US inflation clues loomEURUSD marked the biggest daily gain in a week the previous day while bouncing off the 200-SMA as the Eurozone data came in overall positive while the US statistics mostly disappointed. Also allowing the Euro pair to rebound from the key SMA level is the consolidation ahead of today’s first readings of the EU inflation data and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, also known as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. That said, the quote’s inability to defend the previous day’s rebound joins the bearish MACD signals and unimpressive RSI conditions to lure the bears. However, a daily closing beneath the 200-SMA support of 1.0787 becomes necessary for the seller’s return. It’s worth noting that a five-month-old resistance-turned-support line near 1.0790 and an upward-sloping trend line stretched from mid-April, close to 1.0750, act as additional downside filters. Should the pair sellers keep control past 1.0750, February’s low of 1.0694 and the yearly bottom marked in April around 1.0600 will be in the spotlight. Alternatively, the EURUSD pair’s recovery remains elusive beneath a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 1.0885 at the latest. That said, the 1.0900 threshold also stands tall to test the Euro bulls before directing them toward March’s peak of near 1.0980 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Furthermore, the quote’s successful trading beyond the 1.1000 mark allows the bulls to challenge the late 2023 top surrounding 1.1140, as well as the previous yearly peak of 1.1275. To sum up, the EURUSD pair remains weak within a short-term trading range ahead of the key EU/US data.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD seesaws within rising wedge despite upbeat Australia CPIAUDUSD makes rounds to mid-0.6600s early Wednesday despite witnessing better-than-forecast Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Australia. In doing so, the Aussie pair flirts with a horizontal support zone comprising multiple levels marked since early January, close to 0.6645-40. The pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the bearish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line. However, the sellers need validation from a nine-week-old rising wedge bearish chart formation between 0.6610 and 0.6720 to retake control. Even so, a convergence of the 100-SMA and the 50-SMA, near 0.6560, will be a tough nut to crack for the bears. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s rebound from the aforementioned support zone surrounding 0.6645-40 could quickly reclaim the 0.6700 round figure ahead of challenging the bearish chart pattern by poking the 0.6720 upside hurdle. If the quote remains firmer past 0.6720, it will also portray a bullish crossover among the moving averages and suggest further advances. That said, the 0.6800 round figure might test the Aussie pair’s upside past 0.6720 before directing it to the late 2023 peak around 0.6870. Overall, a lack of conviction in the upbeat Aussie inflation signals and downbeat oscillators keep AUDUSD sellers hopeful within a bearish chart pattern. However, the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY retreats within rising wedge on US holidayUSDJPY snaps a three-day winning streak early Monday even as markets lack momentum amid holidays in the US and the UK. In doing so, the Yen pair pares the previous weekly gains as mixed concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next move join a cautious mood ahead of this week’s key inflation clues from Japan and the US. It should be observed that the USDJPY pair’s latest pullback takes place from the resistance line of a three-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. The retreat also gained support from the RSI (14) line’s fall from the overbought territory and the bearish MACD signals, which in turn suggests a continuation of the quote’s latest declines toward the 156.00 threshold. However, a convergence of the stated wedge’s bottom line and the 200-SMA, near the 155.25-15 region, closely followed by the 155.00 round figure, will be strong support for the bears to conquer before taking control. Should the pair remain weak past 155.00, a five-week-old rising support line near 152.6 and the monthly low of near 151.85 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s fresh recovery needs a clear rejection of the rising wedge bearish chart pattern by crossing the 157.30 immediate hurdle. Even so, the monthly high near 158.00, the 160.00 threshold, and the recent peak of near 160.20, as well as the year 1990 top surrounding 160.40, will offer intermediate halts during the quote’s further run-up. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness a pullback in prices but the downside remains elusive beyond 155.00.
by MTradingGlobal
100-SMA tests EURUSD bulls ahead of EU GDP, US CPIEURUSD rises to the highest level in five weeks, up for the third consecutive day, as traders await the second reading of the Eurozone Q1 GDP and the US headline inflation number, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the previous day’s successful clearance of the 200-SMA hurdle, backed by the upside RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals. However, the 100-SMA and a downward-sloping resistance line from late December 2023, close to 1.0825 and 1.0835 respectively, challenge the pair buyers. Following that, the quote’s gradual run-up toward the highs marked in April and March, around 1.0885 and 1.0985 in that order, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that a slew of hurdles near the 1.1000 threshold will challenge the pair’s upside past 1.0985, if not then bulls can aim for a late 2023 high of around 1.1140. On the contrary, a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December 2023 upside, near 1.0795-90, restricts the short-term downside of the EURUSD pair. Following that, a late April swing high of near 1.0750 and a one-month-old rising support line surrounding 1.0715 will stop the Euro bears from taking control. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained weakness past 1.0715 needs validation from the 1.0700 threshold before challenging the yearly low of 1.0600. To sum up, the EURUSD pair is in the uptrend and hence capable of crossing the immediate resistances. However, the surprise element of the US inflation data and little room toward the north require buyers to be cautious.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY pokes key resistance, US inflation, Japan's GDP eyedUSDJPY jostles with a fortnight-old horizontal resistance as buyers turn cautious ahead of this week’s US inflation and the first readings of Japan’s Q1 2024 GDP. In doing so, the Yen pair struggles to extend the previous week’s recovery from the 50-SMA. That said, the near-50 RSI levels join the receding strength of the bearish MACD signals to suggest a continuation of the quote’s latest rebound within the bullish trend channel comprising levels marked since late 2023. It’s worth noting, however, that a clear upside break of the immediate 155.20-156.00 resistance zone becomes necessary for the bulls to retake control. In that case, the upper line of the previously stated bullish channel, close to 159.00 by the press time, will precede the 160.00 psychological magnet and the year 1990’s peak of 160.40 to lure the buyers. Meanwhile, softer US inflation and upbeat Japan growth numbers could trigger the USDJPY pair’s retreat toward the mid-April swing highs around 154.80. However, the 50-SMA and the aforementioned bullish channel’s bottom line, respectively near 152.50 and 152.00, could challenge the Yen pair sellers afterward. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 152.00, the 150.00 threshold will act as the final defense of the buyers. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains bullish, despite the latest inaction, but the upside room remains limited.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD approaches 200-SMA hurdle on strong Australia inflationAUDUSD rises to the highest level in a week, up for the third consecutive day, as Australia Inflation numbers for March defend hawkish bias about the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and underpin the Australian Dollar (AUD) strength. However, the overbought RSI could join the 200-SMA hurdle of 0.6535 to cap short-term upside of the Aussie pair. Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 0.6615 by the press time, will precede a 15-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6640-45 to challenge the buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6645, the previous monthly high of near 0.6670 will act as the final defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s downturn from December 2023, close to 0.6480, put a short-term floor under the AUDUSD prices. Also acting as an immediate downside support is a one-week-long rising support line near 0.6460. It should be noted that February’s bottom of 0.6440 will act as an intermediate halt during the quote’s weakness past 0.6460 before targeting the yearly low marked the last week around 0.6360. Overall, AUDUSD justifies upbeat Australia inflation but the pair’s further upside appears challenging.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD hovers at five-month low, UK Inflation, BoE’s Bailey eyedGBPUSD traders lick their wounds at the lowest level in five months early Wednesday as the monthly UK inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey loom. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, the oversold RSI (14) also challenges the Pound Sterling sellers at a multi-day bottom. With this, the corrective bounce can aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Cable’s run-up from September 2023 to March 2024, close to 1.2465, if backed by upbeat UK data and hawkish comments from BoE’s Bailey. It’s worth noting, however, that an ascending resistance line from early December, previous support around 1.2545, will precede the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2565 to test the buyers afterward. Above all, a convergence of the 50-EMA and a five-week-old downward-sloping trend line, near 1.2625 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls before retaking control. On the contrary, downbeat UK inflation clues and BoE Governor Bailey’s failure to convince policy hawks could join the bearish MACD signals to exert downside pressure on the GBPUSD pair. In that case, a horizontal area comprising lows marked in November 2023, close to 1.2370-75, will lure the Pound Sterling bears. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and October 2023 peak, respectively near 1.2365 and 1.2330, could test the sellers. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.2330, the odds of witnessing a southward trajectory toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and then to the previous yearly low, near 1.2220 and 1.2035 in that order, can’t be ruled out. Overall, GBPUSD bears appear running out of steam but the road toward the north appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
RSI divergence prods gold bulls, US inflation, Fed Minutes eyedGold price makes rounds to the record top early Wednesday as market players await the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, a bearish RSI divergence on the four-hour chart also challenges the XAUUSD buyers. That said, the lower low in the RSI (14) line contrasts with the higher high in the bullion prices to portray the bearish divergence and tease the sellers. However, a week-long bullish trend channel, currently between $2,314 and $2,375, restricts the precious metal’s short-term moves. Even if the prices drop beneath the $2,314 support, the bears need validation from the $2,300 threshold and convergence of the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a 1.5-month-old rising trend line, close to $2,245-42, to retake control. Meanwhile, a fresh upside in the Gold price could aim for the stated bullish channel’s top line, around $2,375 at the latest. Following that, the 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s February-March moves, near $2,398, will precede the $2,400 threshold to lure the XAUUSD buyers. It’s worth noting that the precious metal’s advances past $2,400 won’t hesitate to aim for the $2,500 psychological magnet. Overall, the Gold buyers are running out of steam ahead of this week’s top-tier data/events.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY eases from key resistance, focus on US, Japan inflationUSDJPY remains pressured towards 151.00 while keeping the previous day’s U-turn from a five-month-old horizontal resistance zone amid Monday’s sluggish Asian session. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies the RSI (14) line’s divergence with the latest high in prices. However, the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s successful trading above the resistance-turned-support line stretched from mid-November 2023, close to 150.30 by the press time, challenge the pair sellers. Even if the quote drops below 150.30, the 150.00 psychological magnet and January’s high of 148.80 will test the bears before directing them toward the 200-SMA support of 146.70. On the contrary, the USDJPY pair buyers need to provide a daily closing beyond the multiple tops marked since October 2023 near the 151.90-70 region to retake control. Even so, the year 2022 peak of around 151.95 and the 152.00 threshold will challenge the Yen pair buyers before directing prices toward the tops marked in 1990 around 155.80 and 160.40. In doing so, the quote will also need to jostle with the 160.00 round figure. Apart from the multiple hurdles toward the north, the US Core PCE Price Index and Japan’s Tokyo CPI also act as the key challenges for the pair buyers to tackle to keep the reins. Overall, the USDJPY buyers need strong catalysts to defend the latest run-up.
by MTradingGlobal