Get started

CPI

GBPUSD buyers struggle on UK employment, US inflation dayDespite rising in the last four consecutive days, the GBPUSD bulls take a breather ahead of the key UK jobs report and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. That said, the three-week-old descending resistance-turned-support-line, around 1.2140 at the latest, restricts the immediate downside of the Cable pair. Following that, the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2100 precedes the one-week-old ascending trend line and the 100-SMA, respectively near 1.2040 and 1.2000, to challenge probe the Cable pair sellers. Should the quote remains bearish past 1.2000, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since February 17, between 1.1915 and 1.1925, could try to prod the Cable bears. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the GBPUSD pair’s January-March fall, around 1.2200, caps the immediate upside around 1.2100. Following that, a run-up towards the mid-February swing high of around 1.2270 appears safe to expect. It should be noted that the quote’s run-up beyond 1.2270 will be crucial to watch as it holds the key to the pair’s run-up toward the previous monthly peak of 1.2400. Overall, the pre-data anxiety joins nearly overbought RSI conditions to probe GBPUSD buyers. However, the bullish MACD signals and hopes for further US Dollar weakness keep the bulls hopeful.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebound appears shallow ahead of important EU, US dataBe it sustained trading below the 3.5-month-old ascending trend line or the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, the EURUSD pair has it all to lure bears as first readings of Eurozone Q4 GDP and US CPI for January loom. Even so, the pair’s latest run-up beyond the 50-DMA hurdle seems to challenge the bears. That said, the quote’s fresh selling should wait for a clear downside break of the 50-DMA support of 1.0700 to aim for the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 1.0530. However, the previous monthly low near 1.0400 and the 100-DMA level surrounding 1.0370 could act as the last defense of the bears afterward. Alternatively, the late 2022 peak around 1.0740 and the support-turned-resistance line from November, close to 1.0950, could probe the EURUSD buyers in case the data favors Euro buyers and the US Dollar sellers. It’s worth observing that the 1.1000 round figure and the current monthly high of 1.1033 are likely to act as additional upside filters during the pair’s run-up beyond 1.0950. Overall, EURUSD is on the bear’s radar as traders await important catalysts. It should be observed, however, that the volatility around the scheduled events is likely to be high and hence traders should wait for markets to stabilize after the data before taking any major positions.
by MTradingGlobal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 12 JAN 2023 ExpiryWell for starters - yesterday's bullish call didnt go that well. NSE:BANKNIFTY ended 0.21% lower. Luckily its only down 37 odd pts because at 13.35 we were 595pts ~ 1.41% from the HOD. If you had read by bullish call before that - you would have thought i am crazy. From an expiry trading perspective today proved to be an ideal day for traders both bulls & bears, thats because we had 2 swings today. Bears till 13.30 and Bulls in the last 1hr. But i think more traders would have lost money today, thats because by the trend set in the day - no one would have anticipated the recovery in the last 1 hr. So ATM option writers of call options would have hit into stop losses. Also there is an equal probability that buyers of PE option 42000 to 41500 would have lost much more - like i did. Anyways its not our cup of tea to tame the beast bank nifty is - we just need to survive to fight another day! I guess i should start trading US markets as my predictions are more accurate there, well it could also be because i dont have skin in the game there as i paper trade there. And here in India - since i deploy funds, my emotional aspect also comes into play ! --- US CPI data has come at 6.5%, last year it had increased 7.5%  Lets say the inflation value is say 1000 in Jan 2021, then by Jan 2022 it became 1075 and in Jan 2023 it became 1144.87 - i dont understand why people feel inflation is cooling down. Or is my math wrong? SP:SPX --- Looking at the bank nifty components, you would believe that we fell only 37pts today NSE:HDFCBANK was the only bank that fought for the bulls - up 0.53% NSE:ICICIBANK was the major contributor that helped BN cut its losses last 2hr. because it moved up 8pts ~ 1% NSE:SBIN was showing trend continuation pattern from yesterday, but the reversal from 13.45 helped it cut the losses to only 0.3% NSE:AXISBANK also had the last 2 hr recovery, but its pattern is still bearish. NSE:KOTAKBANK had some deep cuts earlier in the day, was down 1.84% by 11am a near vertical drop. Although there was some stability afterwards the chart pattern is still bearish. NSE:INDUSINDBK was just continuing from yesterday's trend. Prefer to say that volatility was relatively lower for this bank today comparing peers. --- 15mts chart may prompt most analysts to go bearish, but for me i would like to see the support level taken out first before going short. 1hr chart looks more bearish than 15mts thats because of the prior day's fall creating the illusion of fall. Until 41620 stays intact - its still not safe to go short.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Gold’s rebound remains unconvincing below $1,692A two-month-old previous resistance line defends gold buyers as they seek clarity ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Also keeping the metal bulls hopeful is the 50-SMA’s piercing of the 200-SMA from below, known as the bull cross or golden cross. It’s worth noting, however, that the recovery remains elusive unless the bullion stays successfully beyond the aforementioned SMA convergence near $1,690-92. Following that, a run-up toward the monthly high near $1,730 appears imminent. Even so, the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the quote’s August-September downside, respectively near $1,735 and $1,767, will be in the spotlight. Alternatively, a downside break of the $1660 support confluence, including the resistance-turned-support line and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, could convince gold sellers. In that case, the $1,640 and the yearly low of $1,614 might entertain the bears on their way to the $1,600 threshold. If the metal prices remain weak past $1,600, the April 2020 low near $1,570 should become the yearly bottom. Overall, gold is teasing the buyers but confirmation is necessary from both, the US inflation data and technical details.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls struggle to retake control ahead of US inflationOn Monday, EURUSD rose past 200-SMA for the first time in a month and formed a bullish channel. However, the following pullback from 1.0197 flirts with the stated channel’s lower line near 1.0130. Following that, the 1.0100 threshold comprising the 200-SMA, could test the pair bears ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August. Hence, a recovery towards 1.0200 can’t be ruled out. However, the aforementioned channel’s top and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of August-September downside, respectively around 1.0225 and 1.0265, could challenge the pair’s further advances, if not, then a run-up towards the previous monthly peak surrounding 1.0370 could appear on the chart. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 1.0100 key SMA level could quickly drag EURUSD prices towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the stated moves, close to 1.0055. Following that, the 1.0000 parity level and the 0.9910 may entertain the bears before redirecting them to the yearly low marked in the last week around 0.9860. Overall, EURUSD regains its place on the buyer’s radar but the uptrend remains doubtful as strong US inflation may recall the US dollar bulls.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD needs to cross 1.0360 hurdle to convince buyersUS inflation allowed EURUSD to extend the three-day uptrend towards refreshing the monthly peak, by also piercing a downward sloping resistance line from late March. However, a horizontal area comprising the 50-DMA and lows marked during May and June, around 1.0345-60, appeared a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Hence, a daily closing beyond 1.0360 becomes necessary for the pair to remain firmer. Following that, a run-up towards the 100-DMA and the late June swing high, respectively near 1.0540 and 1.0620, seems imminent. Alternatively, pullback moves remain unimpressive beyond late July’s peak surrounding 1.0275-80. Also acting as a downside filter is an ascending support line from July 14, close to 1.0180. In a case where EURUSD remains bearish past 1.0180, the south-run could extend towards 1.0100 and the 1.0000 parity level before challenging the yearly low near 0.9950. That said, EURUSD buyers have higher odds of return as the technical breakout gains support from the MACD and RSI, not to forget the softer US CPI. However, the confirmation is pending and much needed.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers brace for $1,840 ahead of US CPIGold remains firmer around one-month high, staying successfully above the $1,787-88 confluence comprising the 50-DMA and a five-month-old descending trend line. The same joined firmer RSI and bullish MACD signals to keep buyers hopeful of further upside. However, the $1,800 threshold could challenge the upside momentum before directing the bulls towards the convergence of the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA near $1,840. Following that, a north-run towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-July downturn, near $1,877, can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, pullback moves remain elusive until the quote stays beyond $1,787, a break of which could direct the gold prices towards the previous weekly low near $1,754. In a case where gold bears keep reins past $1,754, the odds of witnessing a south-run towards $1,740 and $1,710 can’t be ruled out. If at all the bullion fails to improve from $1,710, the $1,700 round figure could act as the last defense of gold buyers ahead of highlighting the yearly low of $1,680 to the traders. Overall, gold signaled further upside ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July. However, the outcome of the inflation report is awaited for clear directions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD remains vulnerable to more downside ahead of Canada CPINot only a downside break of the monthly bullish channel but sustained trading beneath the 100-SMA also keeps USDCAD sellers hopeful ahead of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. Adding strength to the bearish bias is the downward sloping RSI (14) since the last week. That said, the 1.2800 appears immediate support for the quote ahead of directing it towards the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2720. Any further downside, however, hinges on the pair’s ability to conquer the 1.2660-65 horizontal area comprising the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of April-May upside, as well as mid-April tops. Meanwhile, the 100-SMA level near 1.2875 limits the USDCAD pair’s immediate recovery moves before highlighting the lower line of the aforementioned channel, previous support around 1.2930. In a case where the pair rises past 1.2930, the weekly high of 1.2981 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet could test the buyers prior to highlighting the north-run towards the monthly peak close to 1.3075. Overall, USDCAD has already flashed bearish confirmation on the chart but today’s data also needs to back the move.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bears need validation from $1,835 to take controlGold’s failure to rebound from $1,850 joins bearish MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful as markets await the key US inflation numbers. However, a convergence of an ascending support line from August 2021 and 200-DMA appears a tough nut to crack for bearish as RSI nears the oversold territory. It should be noted, however, that a clear downside past $1,835 will make the metal vulnerable to drop towards the yearly low surrounding $1,780. During the fall, the $1,800 threshold may act as an intermediate halt. On the contrary, recovery moves may again aim to cross an 11-week-long horizontal hurdle of around $1,890. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of August 2021 to March 2022 upside, near $1,916, will be on the gold bull’s radar. In a case where gold prices remain solid past $1,916, an upward trajectory towards $1,980 can’t be ruled out. Overall, gold approaches crucial support ahead of the all-important US CPI and a strong reading will suggest escalating price pressure, which in turn could solidify the USD while likely negatively affecting the quote.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
1
AUDUSD stays on the way to sub-0.7000 region despite recent bounAUDUSD rebounds from a two-month low, also snapping a four-day downtrend, by cheering a strong quarterly inflation data at home. The recovery moves could also be linked to the oversold RSI and a U-turn from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January-April upside. However, the Aussie remains below the key moving averages and the Fibo levels and the MACD signals are firmly bearish, which in turn suggests that the bears aren’t out of the woods. Hence, fresh selling pressure can’t be ruled out with the first support around 0.7110, comprising 78.6% Fibo. Following that, 0.7050 and the 0.7000 psychological magnet can lure the sellers ahead of directing them to the yearly low surrounding 0.6965. Meanwhile, further recovery hinges on the pair’s ability to close beyond the previous month’s low surrounding 0.7165. Should the AUDUSD bulls manage to cross the 0.7165 hurdle, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-DMA, respectively around 0.7230 and 0.7290, will be on their radar. Even so, the 50-DMA and the support-turned-resistance line from January, close to 0.7355 and 0.7385 in that order, will test the pair buyers before giving them control. Other than the technicals, the market’s risk-off mood and firmer USD also challenge the AUDUSD buyers.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears eye 1.0800 ahead of US inflationEURUSD fades Friday’s rebound ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. Steady RSI and bearish MACD signals also support the bearish bias. That said, the 1.0845-35 region offers immediate support to the currency major ahead of directing it to the latest multi-month low surrounding the 1.0800 threshold. In a case where EURUSD bears remain dominant past 1.0800, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of February-March moves, near 1.0755, will be in focus. On the flip side, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo.) and 21-DMA, respectively around 1.0970 and 1.0990, restrict the short-term recovery of the EURUSD pair. However, bulls remain cautious until the quote stays below the 50-DMA level of 1.1125. Also acting as an upside filter is the previous month’s peak around 1.1185. It’s worth noting that the pair’s successful trading above 1.1185 enables the buyers to retake control. Overall, US inflation data is likely to exert downside pressure on the EURUSD prices.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls eye 200-SMA ahead of UK CPIGBPUSD’s sustained break of the one-month-old horizontal resistance, near 1.3265-70, keeps buyers hopeful ahead of the UK CPI data for February. That said, a run-up towards the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.3370 becomes imminent due to the breakout and firmer MACD signals even as RSI tests the bulls. Following that, the monthly peak of 1.3436 will challenge the cable’s advances afterward. Alternatively, pullback moves can aim for the 100-SMA retest, around 1.3185 by the press time, a break of which will direct GBPUSD sellers toward an ascending support line from March 15, close to 1.3130 at the latest. Should the quote drop below 1.3130, the 50-SMA level surrounding 1.3100 will question the bears before directing them to the monthly low near the 1.3000 psychological magnet. It’s worth noting that the RSI approaches overbought territory but the UK inflation data is more likely to reinforce the Bank of England’s (BOE) rate-hike concerns, which in turn keep buyers hopeful in absence of any negative surprises.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD pulls back from 200-SMA ahead of US inflation dataEURUSD defies a three-day recovery ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on early Wednesday. The major currency pair’s weakness could also be linked to the failures to cross the 200-SMA, bearish MACD signals and RSI retreat. Hence, the quote is likely to decline further towards monthly horizontal support near 1.1525-32. However, the yearly low around 1.1510 and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the September 14 to October 28 moves, near 1.1490, also joined by the March 2020 bottom, could challenge the pair bears afterward. Meanwhile, recovery moves will be challenged by a convergence of the 200-SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of September-October fall, around 1.1610. Following that, a downward sloping resistance line from September 03, around 1.1645 and late October’s swing high around 1.1695 will lure the EURUSD bulls. Should the pair buyers manage to cross the 1.1700 hurdle, backed by softer US inflation numbers, the quote may not hesitate to challenge the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1760.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls step back from 100-DMA on softer UK CPIWith downbeat UK inflation figures pouring cold water on the face of BOE hawks, GBPUSD eases from 100-DMA, consolidating the previous day’s gains below 1.3800. For now, the 1.3700 mark, comprising multiple levels marked since late September, question the pair’s further weakness. Also acting as a downside filter is the ascending support line from September 30, near 1.3660. In a case where the cable prices drop below 1.3660, July’s low close to 1.3570 will gain the market’s attention. Meanwhile, recovery moves not only need to cross the 100-DMA immediate hurdle surrounding 1.3805. The reason is the 200-DMA and a descending resistance line from July 30, respectively near 1.3845 and 1.3860. During the quote’s rise past 1.3860, tops marked during July and late June, around 1.3985 and 1.4005 in that order, will be crucial before calling the GBPUSD bulls.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD eyes 1.1790 break to keep controls on US inflation dayEURUSD struggles to keep rebound from monthly low ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August. Given the latest chatters over Fed tapering before the next week’s FOMC, today’s US inflation data becomes crucial for the markets. Ahead of the data, the US dollar slips and prints mild gains on the face of the EURUSD. However, failures to cross the 1.1910 horizontal resistance and sluggish oscillators keep sellers hopeful. It should be noted, though, that the 50-DMA and 20-DMA, respectively around 1.1795 and 1.1790, restrict the quote’s short-term downside ahead of July’s low near 1.1790. If US inflation data rejects tapering concerns with a downbeat figure, the EURUSD prices may recover from the key moving averages. With this, the latest swing high around 1.1850 may offer an intermediate halt before highlighting the 1.1910 horizontal area, comprising multiple tops marked since June 30. In a case where the EURUSD bulls manage to keep reins past 1.1910, odds of its rally towards May’s bottom near 1.1985 and the 1.2000 psychological magnet should return to the charts.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Gold stays pressured below $1900 as traders await ECB, US CPIGold prices remain on the back foot amid anxious hours of early Thursday as markets wait for the ECB and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Although the ECB is less likely to become a major catalyst, the anticipated optimism of the bloc’s policymakers could offer intermediate bounce to gold prices. However, a stronger-than-expected beat of the US inflation data won’t be taken lightly and can drag the yellow metal on release. It should, however, be noted that ascending support line from mid-May and late April, respectively around $1,879 and $1,871, could probe sellers whereas 200-SMA near $1,848 and May 10 top close to $1,845 adds to the downside filters. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the monthly resistance line, close to $1,900, will aim for the recent high of $1,917. In a case where the gold buyers keep reins past $1,917, October 2020 levels near $1,933 should offer an intermediate halt during the rally targeting the yearly peak of $1,960. To sum up, today is a test for the gold buyers who seemed to have tired of late.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
GBP climbs on strong job data, CPI nextThe British pound touched a 3-month high earlier on Tuesday, when GBP/USD reached a high of 1.4220. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.4200, up 0.49% on the day. The pound received a lift from positive UK employment numbers, which were released earlier in the day. The unemployment rate for March dipped to 4.8%, down from 4.9% and a 6-month low. The number of unemployed persons in April fell by 15.1 thousand, outperforming the consensus of a rise of 25.6 thousand. This figure was all the more impressive given the recent lockdown. Wage growth slowed to 4.0%, down from 4.5%, but investors didn't let this get in the way of positive sentiment towards the pound, which pushed into 1.42-territory. The surge in consumer inflation sent the dollar higher last week and has led to speculation that the Fed may have to reexamine its ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Fed member Robert Kaplan broke ranks with Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this month and urged the Fed to start to discuss tapering its USD120 billion per month in asset purchases sooner rather than later. Still, the Fed line remains that any inflation surge is temporary and there are no plans to taper QE anytime soon. The Fed has long held that it would allow inflation to temporarily run above its target of 2 per cent. The key question is whether the April CPI numbers are a one-time blip or has inflation risen to a sustainable higher level. The market reaction to the CPI report was sharp, with equities falling and the US dollar gaining strength. Another release which points to higher inflation would again raise speculation that the Fed may have to tighten policy. This would be bullish for the US dollar. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.4180, followed by resistance at 1.4262. There are support lines at 1.4003 and 1.3908.
by OANDA
Australian dollar dips as inflation missesThe Australian dollar is down slightly in the Wednesday session. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7747, down 0.27% on the day. Australian CPI posted a gain of 0.6% in the first quarter of the year, down from 0.9% in Q4 of 2020. The read was certainly respectable, but underperformed, as the estimate stood at 0.9%. Trimmed CPI, which excludes the most volatile items, dropped from 0.4% to 0.3% and missed the forecast of 0.5%. The weak readings have sent the Australian dollar lower. The lower than expected inflation numbers will lessen any pressure that was on the RBA to tighten policy due to stronger economic conditions. Australia has extricated itself in admirable fashion from the downturn due to Covid, although the vaccine rollout has been sluggish. The RBA has been cautious and says that it does not expect GDP or employment to reach pre-pandemic levels until later in the year. Once the economy reaches that level, there is a good chance that the RBA could tighten policy, such as easing QE, as we saw with the Bank of Canada earlier this month. What can we expect from the FOMC meeting later today (18:00 GMT)? Expectations for a dramatic announcement are low, as the Fed does not appear in any hurry to tighten policy, even with a rapidly improving US economy. The market seems to have bought into the Fed's message that even though inflationary pressures are growing, QE will not be reduced for a while yet. In follow-up comments to today's meeting, Fed Chair Powell is likely to wax positive about the economy but simultaneously state that the economy is still in recovery mood and needs the Fed to keep its foot on the pedal. Unless the Fed surprises with a more hawkish rate statement than expected, it should be "business as usual" after the meeting, which means that the US dollar could find itself under pressure from the major currencies. On the upside, 0.7813 has some breathing room in resistance as AUD has lost ground. Above, there is resistance at 0.7887. On the downside, there are support levels at 0.7688 and 0.7627
by OANDA
Australian dollar dips, CPI nextThe Australian dollar has reversed directions on Tuesday and recorded slight gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7781, down 0.22% on the day. Australian CPI showed a strong gain of 0.9% in the fourth quarter, and an identical gain is projected for the first quarter of the year. The economy is performing well, boosted by stronger demand for Australian commodities and ultra-low interest rates. Unemployment has been falling, undeterred by the end of the JobKeeper employment programme at the end of March. Not surprisingly, inflation is also showing strength, reflective of the positive economic conditions. Consumers are again spending, as Retail Sales rebounded in March with a gain of 1.4%, after a decline of 0.8% beforehand. This beat the forecast of 1.0%. The economy continues to grow after being reopened, and consumer spending is expected to be a key driver in the economic recovery. The RBA is projecting that GDP and employment will reach pre-pandemic levels later in 2021, which is 6-12 months faster than the central bank had expected. In addition to stronger domestic demand, Australia stands to benefit from a more robust global economy, which will translate into stronger demand for Australian exports. This bodes well for the Australian dollar, which has a tight correlation with commodity prices. Despite the rosy economic picture, the RBA remains cautious and has not given any indication that it plans to raise interest rates or even taper its QE programme. At its last meeting, the bank noted that inflation remains low and below the central bank's target, which is between 2-3 per cent. The bank added that although the employment picture has improved, unemployment still remains too high for its liking. AUD/USD is putting strong resistance at 0.7813. Above, there is resistance at 0.7887. On the downside, there is support at 0.7688, followed by support at 0.7627
by OANDA