Crude
HPCL and WTI CRUDE correlation?[/Hi,
Today i would like to present the Point and figure method analysis of correlation between WTI Crude price and stock price of Oil Marketing Companies like HPCL.(HINDPETRO:NSE) The WTI crude corrected 2.38% yesterday. Let us see how the HPCL chart is postioned.The Crude price is a significant influence on balance of payments for India as the Crude is the highetst import biller. And if WTI corrects and sustains below $ 60, that will be a great sign for Indaian economy and stock markets.
The HPCL charts analysis is based on YTD data. And charts used for analysis are logarithmic scaled 1% X 3 Daily High Low chart and Daily High-Low 2% X 3 chart. The WTI Crude Oil chart is constructed with YTD data but the chart is Daily High-Low 2% X 2 chart. The HPCL last traded at 283.90(NSE) and WTI is trading at $ 67.04.
Let us have a look at the WTI Crude chart.
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i63.tinypic.com
The WTI is in an Uptrend and the Bullish support line is breached once. But the trend lines on 2 box reversal chart are different than application of the trend lines on 3Box reversal chart. As of now the WTI is in sideways mode. The SELL signal level is 66.44 ( marked with Arrow ‘A’ on the chart)on the downside and 72.03 on the upside. The WTI Crude trend may change to down if it breaks the low of 62.53 marked as on the chart. The WTI breached and genrerated SELL signal yesterday(yesterday's low is $66.32).
Please note the Critical Price Point @ 60.05 is marked as on the chart and note down the monthly marking on the chart during the first quarter of the 2018. Please try to correlate the timing and CPP on HPCL charts with WTI chart.
Looks like if WTI sustains above the CPP that will be a problem for the OMC like HPCL due to subsidy burden.
Let us have a look at the HPCL Daily 1% X 3 High-Low chart.
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The chart is showing the price action history for the past two months. The quadruple bottom break down at 301.25 is marked as , the bearish resistance line is marked as , the trend changing point at 289.45 is marked as . The formation (Triple top break out followed by a double top break out) is called Bullish Catapult, which is a reversal signal. The Alert level 272 on the chart is marked as . The Bullish support line is marked with Arrow . The stock tested the yesterday marked with on the chart. Let us see how it will react to the WTI fall today. We can correlate the sideways action on WTI after making a high of $75 and the action here in HPCL stock.
Let us have a look at the Daily 2% X 3 High-Low chart.
i64.tinypic.com
The bearish resistance line is marked as , the Ascending Triple top break out shaded in yellow is marked with and the Trend changing point @ 298 is marked as . Please try to correlate the Critical Price Point on this chart and the WTI chart.
Now the HPCL charts are showing signs of Bias change, can we say WTI will fall from this levels and the bias changes from Up to Down?!
Keep watching the Alert levels marked on both the charts.
Good day
Crude Oil seems to be heading towards $82 by mid 2018NYMEX:CL1! Monthly Chart: ABCD Pattern on process. (D wave in making). T arget is $72 by mid June 2018. Also it is in safe buy zone = above $50. ( Trading above 0.618 of Fibo retrace of B to C wave). below $41 pattern gets nulled. Do Not to trade.
WTI CRUDE OIL (WEEKLY)Chart Advise has been recommending in its advisory for a a CRUDE OIL buy and the view has been fantastic. The steady upward traction seen on the charts since the past few days once again reiterates the point that the prices always speaks ahead of the move. I have found Pitchfork to be quite an important weapon against the trend. It has helped me several times to forecast in the right direction. We had mentioned in the GAME CHANGERS(Money Control) newsletter about the CRUDEOIL reaching 3350 on MCX and on the Dollar terms around 53. The potential looks to be much more as the possibility of heading towards 56 is on the cards .
The Weekly chart looks ominous and the potential is gaining momentum as the positive DI lines are beginning to head higher. The strong trended action to the upside will now be able to stretch further an reach towards the upper channel. Positive vibes continue to flow and the steady higher lows continue to indicate a run to the upside.Look to initiate long at current levels or on dips towards 50 as possibility of heading upwards is very much on the cards.
Crude OilLet It Break decisively.
Till then you can take advantages of intra-day short ranges.
But do that with strict risk management.
Finally the pattern at present looks Bullish, BUT it can go either way.
Because on the flip side of it - COT reports are Bearish, open interest is at record high and Commercials are record short(more than they were at 2014 drop from $108).
I personally will like to side by COT reports.
Lets SEE!!!
USOIL Breakout Strong Resistance - LongUSOIL looking out to break the strong resistance of 51.65 level. Once if the price break the 51.65 level the further uptrend may come upto 61.15 level.
It's a short term recommendation.
Trade:
Buy above = 51.70
Target 1 = 56.60
Target 2 = 61.05
Stop Loss = 45.00
Total Reward Points = 9.35
Risk Points = 6.7