Q&A_ Is market waiting for a deep correction? My view.Definition:
India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY Index Option prices. From the best bid-ask prices of NIFTY Options contracts, a volatility figure (%) is calculated which indicates the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days.
Here you can see the weekly chart of India Vix. You must have noticed that whenever the Vix touches 10% levels, it bounces off. This has been happening since 2014. So, Vix generally means "expected market volatility (or say movement) over the next 30 calendar days". Nifty is wandering around 16000 levels and 15500 levels since June. It means buyers are not interested to buy. They must be booking the profits.
So, if the market has to move up, then "Vix must fall below 10% levels". But "we have a very strong support at 10% levels". Of course it may go little below 10% levels (like it did on 19 Jun 2017 to 8.75%). But the point here is if the market has to move up, then Vix must fall. Hence I am expecting a deep correction. This is not supported on charts only, but as well as fundamentals aspects (like Nifty moving above 28 PE), share prices are really expensive, euphoria, new trading accounts opened and enjoying the bull market, etc.
Exception: The strong bullishness in S&P 500 (or say US markets), can easily affect the Indian markets. If there is "euphoria" on US markets, it's everywhere. Hence Nifty can move even higher.
Conclusion: I am not saying to just go short (or sell off your shares), if you're an trader, good. But if you are an investor, just think and analyze more. Of course there are stocks that are undervalued, you can invest a little there. But, the blue-chip stocks, I won't advice it for investing now.
You get best prices when "there is fear, there is an uncertainty, there's a panic". Always saving your money for that time (for investing) is crucial.
Disclaimer: The information and analysis I've provided is of my own, please do your thorough analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing. The investing in securities markets are subject to market risks. I am not a SEBI registered investment advisor. Thankyou for reading and I wish you a happy investing.
