SIYSIL: A Strong Demand Zone Setup with High Reward Potential!When it comes to technical analysis, understanding demand zones can give traders an edge in identifying potential reversal points. Demand zones represent the footprints of institutional players who significantly influence the market. These zones indicate unfilled buy orders, and when the price revisits these areas, institutions tend to buy again, leading to a reversal.
Let's dive into SIYSIL's price action and explore its technical structure!
🌟 Weekly Chart Analysis
SIYSIL is currently displaying a highly structured setup. If we analyze the weekly chart , we can clearly see a well-defined Rally-Base-Rally (RBR) Demand Zone . The strength of this demand zone is reinforced by the fact that it broke a previous significant resistance level and formed an all-time high .
📊 Daily Chart Confirmation
Upon shifting to the daily chart , the same demand zone is clearly visible. A strong follow-through from this zone has resulted in a powerful imbalance, further validating the structure.
Moreover, there are currently no nearby supply zones that could act as resistance, making this demand zone even more significant.
💡 Observations
Act of Polarity: The concept of polarity further strengthens this structure— the previous resistance level has now turned into support , aligning perfectly with the demand zone.
Market Conditions: While this setup appears strong, it's essential to consider the current weakness in the overall market . Even well-defined structures can face challenges in uncertain conditions, so risk management is crucial.
📈 Final Thoughts
SIYSIL presents a structured demand zone setup with multiple confirmations on both the weekly and daily charts. The alignment of the demand zone with previous resistance-turned-support adds a strong layer of confluence.
Lastly, thank you for your support. Feel free to ask if you have questions.
🚀 "A successful trader is not the one who never loses but the one who learns to manage losses."
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purposes and is not intended as a trading or investment recommendation. I am not a SEBI-registered analyst.
Demandandsupplyzones
Options Trading Strategies on Budget Day 2025A Comprehensive Guide on Nifty, Niftybank, and Sensex Options
Introduction
Trading options on Union Budget day can be an exhilarating yet challenging endeavour. The Indian stock market sees significant volatility on this day, influenced by the budget announcements made by the Finance Minister. This guide will provide insights into trading options on the three major indices in the Indian markets: Nifty, Nifty Bank, and Sensex. We will also analyse the past data of these indices on budget days and examine how India VIX have fluctuated during these days. Based on this data we will deploy 4 delta neutral strategies and see how these strategies have performed on the budget days for all the 3 indices. The basic idea of this study is to find out the optimal strategy that can be deployed on budget day. Also please note since Sensex is a new instrument for weekly options data for the strategies is only available for 2024
Understanding the Major Indices
• Nifty: The Nifty 50 index, representing 50 of the largest companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).
• Niftybank: The Nifty Bank index, comprising the most liquid and large capitalized Indian banking stocks.
• Sensex: The Sensex or BSE 30 index, representing 30 of the largest and most actively traded stocks on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
Historical Performance on Union Budget Days
To make informed trading decisions, it is essential to analyse how these indices have performed on budget days over the past decade. The following tables provide detailed data on the indices' performance, including values for Open, High, Low, Close, and percentage changes from Open to Close and High to Low. Additionally, the tables include India VIX movement throughout the day.
Analysing Implied Volatility and India VIX
On Union Budget day, implied volatility and the India VIX are crucial indicators to watch. Typically, an IV crush occurs post the Finance Minister's speech, leading to a significant drop in volatility. This section will explore these trends based on historical data and provide insights into how traders can capitalize on these movements.
PS: The IV considered here will be the ATM Straddle IV
Options Trading Strategies
Although multiple options strategies can be deployed on budget day we are going to consider deploying a Directional and a Non-Directional Straddle with protective hedges. We will compare the strategies to see which strategy has given the best back testing performance and we will compare the performance of these strategies for all indices Nifty, Bank Nifty and Sensex.
Short Straddles using Wait & Trade
A conventional short straddle involves selling an ATM call and an ATM put option. However instead of entering both the legs at once we are going to perform a wait and trade directional straddle. This means that we will enter the call leg or the put leg only when the premium falls below 5%. We will take the reference time of entry as 9:20 am and exit time for the strategy will be 3:25 pm. We will check the reference price of both the calls and put options at 9:20 am for the ATM Straddle strike price. Let us say the Nifty on budget day is trading at 22500 then we will check the premium of the 22500 CE and 22500 PE and note down these prices. Let us say both are trading close Rs 100 each then we will enter only when the price of those options goes below Rs 95 implying that there is some direction in the market. So we will enter only that leg and avoid executing the other leg. If the market takes a direction we are bound to profit from the leg that has been executed. If the market moves up first and then down then it is likely that both the legs will get executed. The stop loss on the individual legs will be 70% each. One can execute this simple strategy via an algo execution platform.
Pros: This strategy profits from the decrease in implied volatility and can be profitable if the market remains sideways or directional.
Cons: This strategy will tend to loose money in a V-shape or U-shape market since there is a possibility of both stop losses triggering.
Iron Butterfly
An Iron Butterfly strategy involves selling an ATM straddle and buying protective wings (an OTM call and an OTM put) to limit risk. The offset units will be purely selected on the basis of the breakeven points of the straddle to keep it simple. This strategy is limited risk limited reward strategy. We will execute this strategy on all indices at 9:20 am and exit at 3:25 pm on all budget days.
Pros: On budget days the usual tendency of the market is to make some extreme movements but tend to close flat or closer to the open. If on the budget day the market tends to behave in this manner then the strategy turns out to be a high profitable strategy.
Cons: On budget day if the market becomes extremely directional then this strategy will end in a limited loss
Back tested Results
The back tested performance of short straddles and Iron Butterfly on Nifty, Nifty Bank, and Sensex indices are summarized in the following tables. These tables will help traders understand the potential profitability and risks associated with each strategy. For some strategies there is lack of back tested data available, so it is denoted as NA in the column of the strategy name
Note: All the strategies deployed as a part of this exercise are time based straddles. To optimize the performance of these strategies one can look at ATM straddle charts and can add some technical indicators such as super trend, vwap or moving averages to plan precision entries and exits for these strategies. The usage of these will definitely help increase the probability of the trade.
Please find the link below for your reference with all the data
Historical Data Indices.xlsx
The software used for backtesting the strategies in StockMock.
Conclusion
Budget week brings volatility; traders should employ delta neutral strategies to benefit from price fluctuations and implied volatility changes
Some of the key highlights of all budget days:
1. Budget week is highly volatile, with significant price movements expected.
2. Historical analysis shows an average 2-2.5% movement from high to low on budget days.
3. Implied volatility typically decreases around 11 AM on budget day.
4. Delta neutral strategies are recommended for traders lacking directional clarity.
5. Various strategies like straddles, strangles, and iron condors can be employed.
6. One should use algo platforms to automate executions since markets will tend to move very fast and in such situations, execution becomes extremely critical
7. Also do your own study by backtesting, forward testing and only then deploy your strategy in the live market
Hope you found the above article useful in helping you to prepare yourself in advance for Budget Day. All the best!
A BUY SetupsAsian Paints Hits Monthly DZ
with Nominal risk of 3%
Plan a BUY trade from here for Minimum target of 9%
Always use proper risk management by assessing your financial goals and personal risk tolerance, ensuring you never risk more than you can afford to lose. Set a proper stop loss before entering any trade to minimize potential losses if the market moves against you, and stick to it without letting emotions interfere. Take full responsibility for your trading decisions, learning from mistakes to improve over time. Plan every trade carefully with clear entry, exit, and risk management strategies, as consistency and discipline are key to long-term success.
HOW-TO: Use Demand and Supply Zones Pro [Afnan] As Screener In this video, I walks you through an exciting update to the Demand and Supply Zones Pro Indicator—integration with TradingView’s Pine Screener. This powerful tool allows traders to scan stocks based on demand and supply zones, helping to streamline your trading process and increase your efficiency.
Key Highlights:
Learn how to set up the Pine Screener for scanning stocks from your watchlist based on demand and supply zones.
A step-by-step guide to creating and using a Nifty 200 Watchlist.
Setting up Demand and Supply Zones Pro with custom timeframe and alert configurations.
How the screener analyzes stocks, focusing on demand and supply zone proximity and key price levels.
Understanding the columns in the Pine Screener and how to interpret them for your trades.
This screener is available exclusively to Premium and higher TradingView plans, so ensure your account is upgraded to take advantage of this feature.
GHCL Analysis: Supply & Demand Zones Strategy with Breakouts In this video, we analyze the NSE:GHCL chart using the Demand and Supply Zones Lite Indicator.
Watch as I explain how to:
Identify Stage 1, Stage 2 , and consolidation phases.
Spot breakouts and understand the concept of a flush .
Use demand zones nested inside resistance-turned-support areas to plan high-probability trades.
This video is perfect for anyone looking to improve their technical analysis skills and learn how to trade using demand and supply zones.
Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions."
IT SECTOR OVERVIEW: Super Bullish!Observation & Overview:
1. The IT Index was beaten down in late 2022.
2. After 2023 it formed a bottom and prices started gaining strength.
3. 2024 price started forming Higher Highs & Higher Lows, touched the previous 2022 ATH and currently, taking support from the 50% of the swing and also bouncing from a D tf demand.
4. It is acting as a major support zone and good weekly candle rejection can be noticed.
5. Signs of buyers getting dominant and it should break the ATH soon.
6. I'm expecting a minimum 15% ROI from this sector turnaround.
7. Hopefully, with sector rotation this sector is going to gain momentum eventually.
- Stay tuned for further insights, updates and trade safely!
- If you liked the analysis, don't forget to leave a comment and boost the post. Happy trading!
Disclaimer: This is NOT a buy/sell recommendation. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Please, do your due diligence before investing.
Thanks & Regards,
Anubrata Ray
SYNGENE: A Confluence of Demand Zones Worth Watching
Understanding the market moves through the lens of demand and supply zones can give traders a critical edge. I’ve been looking at SynGene International ( NSE:SYNGENE ), and I think it’s at a super interesting level right now. Let me break it down for you in a simple way!
📈 Why SynGene Looks Promising Right Now
Triple Timeframe Demand Zone Confluence : NSE:SYNGENE is trading in demand zones across the 75-minute, 125-minute, and daily timeframes. This rare alignment of zones suggests that "smart money" may be active here. Demand zones represent areas where unfilled buy orders are likely to exist, making this confluence a highly positive factor for demand-supply zone traders.
Absence of Supply Zones : No supply zones are visible on the current timeframes or even on the weekly chart. This indicates that price movement may face minimal resistance ahead. The absence of supply zones on the higher timeframe (weekly) places the stock in a "wholesale area" as per Curve (location) analysis.
Quality Demand Zone : The demand zones currently in play were instrumental in driving the price to an all-time high in the past. These zones follow-through candles broken multiple tested resistance levels, demonstrating their strength.
Act of Polarity : While the price is not precisely in the demand zone right now, it is trading at a level that previously acted as resistance. This "act of polarity" (where resistance becomes support) adds another layer of technical validity to this setup.
Uptrend on Higher Timeframe : The higher timeframe trend for SynGene remains upward, aligning well with the idea of buying on demand zones.
🎯 Key Trading Considerations
- Entry Strategy : Look for entry opportunities near the demand zone, ensuring your stop-loss (SL) is placed below the distal line of the demand zone with a buffer.
- Risk Management : Aim for a minimum 1:2 risk-reward ratio for your first target. If the price moves further upward, consider trailing your stop-loss to capture extended rallies.
- Safety is Key : While the setup is promising, remember that no setup is foolproof. Discipline with stop-losses.
Lastly, thank you for your support. Feel free to ask if you have any questions.
📢 Disclaimer : This analysis is purely for educational purposes and is not intended as a trading or investment recommendation. Please note, I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. Always consult with a financial professional before making trading or investment decisions.
Nifty50 & Nifty500 Hits Critical Demand Zone: Ready for Bounce?Indian stock market has been in a downward for over a month, Let’s dive into the technical setups and explore potential scenarios.
🔥 Demand Zone Insight: Drop-Base-Rally (DBR) at Play
On Friday, Nifty 50 entered a demand zone, specifically a Drop-Base-Rally (DBR) zone — an area often indicating unfilled orders from institutional buyers. In strong markets, simply entering the zone could signal a buying opportunity. However, since the broader trend has been downward, it’s more prudent to look for confirmation.
Today, Nifty 50 delivered that confirmation entry by forming a bullish candle within this demand zone, suggesting that the price may now have the support it needs to reverse direction. This type of entry confirms that buyers are stepping in, providing traders a more reliable basis to consider potential setups.
📊 Nifty 500: Inside Bar as Additional Confirmation
For traders who prefer further confirmation, the Nifty 500 presents an interesting setup. After hitting a key support level last Friday, the index printed a bearish candle (-1.27%) followed by a small, 0.67% bullish candle today — a formation known as an inside bar .
🛠️ Trading the Inside Bar: Breakout Signals
An inside bar indicates price consolidation and often precedes a breakout. By waiting for this breakout, traders can add another layer of confirmation before entering.
Bullish Breakout : A price rise above today’s high could signal a potential reversal and strengthen bullish momentum.
Bearish Continuation : If the price falls below today’s low, we may see the downtrend continue.
⚠️ Final Thoughts 📉
Nifty 50’s demand zone and today’s bullish candle hint at an early sign of a potential reversal. However, with the daily trend still pointing downward, a more cautious approach may be wise. Waiting for additional confirmation through an inside bar breakout in Nifty 500 could provide stronger validation. If tomorrow Nifty 500 breaks above today’s high, this would confirm the inside bar breakout, offering a clearer reversal signal and a green light to plan buy entries in selected stocks based on your setups. Conversely, if Nifty 500 breaks below today’s low, it may indicate a continuation of the downtrend.
Lastly, Thank you for your support, your likes & comments.
"Successful trading is the art of waiting for the perfect moment." 📈
This analysis is purely for educational purposes and is not intended as a trading or investment recommendation. Please note, I am not a SEBI-registered analyst.
Kopran Basic Demand Supply in Price Action with Waves.Kopran if we observe price action we can see basic demand supply theory on charts
In Feb 2024 it reached 292 levels & with good supply it pull backed towards 200 levels in march.
Again in April it tried to reclaim 292 levels but with more supply it rolled back to 200 levels.
In Aug 2024 it managed to absorb all supply & trade above 292 levels then every pull back towards 292 became demand zone it happened in 1st week of Sept now we are at same pattern in first week of Oct.
Its looks like Wave 4 pullback which is 50% retracement of wave 3 rise so idealy wave 5 can take price 400 levels confirmation will be trade above 310.
SUMICHEM - Taking support at weekly zone, identified on DailySUMICHEM - Taking support at weekly zone, identified on Daily on 29-09-2024
Stock has given an explosive candle earlier showing good break above weekly supply zone. Now came down to retest the same zone so it can be a good opportunity to add with minimum margin of safety.
Important levels and SL mentioned on the chart
Unlocking Options Trading : The Power of Demand and Supply Part1The Indian options market has experienced a remarkable growth of nearly 8 times since the pre-COVID era. This surge in volume and transactions has created new opportunities for retail traders and investors. While the NSE initially traded only Nifty and Bank Nifty, it now offers a wider range of indices like Midcap Nifty, Nifty Financial Services, Sensex, and Bankex. Despite increased participation, liquidity remains a concern for some instruments.
This article explores how the Demand and Supply strategy can be applied to options trading. I have been personally trading demand and supply strategy for over 13 years and have seen the power of this strategy working for any asset class for that matter be it the Indian markets or even the Global markets. Now the question arises can we use the Demand and Supply strategy for trading options and the plain simple answer is “Absolutely Yes!!”.
Today I am going to show how we can combine demand and supply and Options together to gain a superlative edge. Let us basically talk first about what is a demand zone? A demand zone is an area on the price chart where price has significantly moved to the upside creating a footprint of “Strong Buyers” and a supply zone is an area on the price chart where price has moved down significantly creating a footprint of “Strong Sellers”. As you can see in the above chart I have plotted the demand zone(Green) and supply zone(Red). These are the areas on the price chart where one can expect the price to turn.
Now if one want to switch gears and trade options what are the options that are available for a trader.
a. Upside Movement( Demand Zone)
b. Sideways Movement ( Middle of Demand & Supply)
c. Downside Movement( Supply Zone)
So the trader first needs to identify where the price is in context of the Demand and Supply zones. If the price is closer to Demand one can plan a bullish trade, if price is closer to supply zone one can plan a bearish trade and if prices are in the middle one can plan a sideways trade. As per the above example price is closer to a supply zone on the BNF so it will be more prudent for the trader to setup a trade in Options with a bearish perspective based on the demand and supply strategy.
In the world of options there are 2 types :
1. Call Options
2. Put Options
Buying Calls gives the right to buy and buying puts give the right to sell however one can even sell options and when one does that he has the obligation to sell in case of calls and obligation to buy in the case of puts
For an absolute layman this makes the process of understanding options a lot harder than what options actually are so we are going to breakdown these 4 positions and corelate these 4 positions with demand and supply. As an options trader one can create 4 positions.
1. Buy Call
2. Buy Put
3. Sell Call
4. Sell Put
We are going to break down these 4 positions into simple mathematical signs to arrive at a decision that out of the above 4 options strategies which is to be implemented in Demand Zone and which one is to be implemented in a Supply Zone. Let us break down these 4 positions as follows :
Buy --> “+”
Calls-->“+”
Sell --> “-“
Puts -->”-“
1. Buy Calls => + * + = +
Since the outcome is positive, we always implement a positive position at a Demand Zone therefore Buy Call as a strategy should be implemented only at Demand and cannot be implemented at Supply
2. Buy Puts ==> + * - = -
Since the outcome is negative, we always implement a negative position at a Supply Zone therefore Buy Put as a strategy should be implemented only at Supply and cannot be implemented at a Demand Zone
3. Sell Calls --> - * + = -
Since the outcome is negative, we always implement a negative position at a Supply Zone therefore Sell Call as a strategy should be implemented only at Supply and cannot be implemented at a Demand Zone
4. Sell Puts --> - * - = -
Since the outcome is positive, we always implement a positive position at a Demand Zone therefore Sell Put as a strategy should be implemented only at Demand and cannot be implemented at Supply
Thus by using simple mathematical signs we have made a complex understanding easy to follow where now a demand and supply trader knows and understand that which are the two strategies he can implement at a Demand Zone and which are the two strategies that can be implemented at a Supply Zone
Based on these calculations, we can determine the appropriate options strategies for different price levels:
• Demand Zone: Buy Call or Sell Put
• Supply Zone: Buy Put or Sell Call
I hope you found the previous explanation clear. Now that you understand how to connect demand and supply with options, let's discuss how to determine whether to buy or sell options. Is the Demand and Supply strategy enough or are there other factors to consider?". We will talk about that in Part 2 of Unlocking Options Trading : The Power of Demand and Supply Strategy
IZMO : Breakout CandidateSwing Setup
IZMO : Risky Trade but worth it
>> Huge TWS Visible on the Left Side
>> Price currently near Bottom of TWS, Spike Expected
>> W pattern also visible which can breakout
>> Inside Bar forming at the Bottom of W pattern
>> Highlighted supply zone : Almost 12% till there
>> If Breaks Supply zone, Another 12% on cards
>> Trendline Breakout also coinciding with W pattern Breakout
>> SL u can consider 380 levels
Risky Trade but so much Learnings, Chart filled with lot of concepts....which is actually lot of confirmations
Totally Worth Trading this setup with low Risk
Swing Traders can lock 10% profit & keep trailing
Please give a Boost or comment if u r Liking the analysis & Learning from it. Keep showing ur Love by following
Disclaimer : This is not a Trade Recommendations & Charts/ stocks Mentioned are for Learning/Educational Purpose. Do your Own Analysis before Taking positions.
TIPS INDUSTRIES - RRR Looks Attractive!Overview & Observation:
1. Rejection from demand zone.
2. EMA trend confirmation.
3. RSI strength and momentum confirmations.
Trade Plan:
1. RRR is good (1:5)
2. ENTRY= CMP
3. SL = 10-12%
4. TARGET = 50%++
- Stay tuned for further insights, updates and trade safely!
- If you liked the analysis, don't forget to leave a comment and boost the post. Happy trading!
Disclaimer: This is NOT a buy/sell recommendation. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Please, do your due diligence before investing.
Thanks & Regards,
Anubrata Ray
ASTER DM HEALTHCARE - Swing Trade Analysis - 23rd June #stocksASTER DM HEALTHCARE (1W TF) - Swing Trade Analysis given on 23rd June, 2024
Pattern: BACK AT WEEKLY SUPPORT ZONE
- 8 Weeks Consolidation at Weekly Support Zone - Done ✓
- Strong Weekly Volume Buildup at Support Zone - Done ✓
- Demand Zone Consolidation & Retest - In Progress
* Disclaimer
ADANI ENERGY SOLUTIONS - Swing Trade Analysis - 30th July #stockADANI ENERGY SOLUTIONS (1W TF) - Swing Trade Analysis given on 30th July, 2024
Pattern: RECTANGLE BOX SETUP
- Weekly Resistance Breakout Initiated - Done ✓
- Weekly Volume Buildup at Resistance - Done ✓
- Demand Zone Retest & Consolidation (for a small SL and a better RR) - In Progress
* Disclaimer
NETWORK18 MEDIA - Swing Trade Analysis - 28th July #stocksNETWORK18 MEDIA (1D TF) - Swing Trade Analysis given on 28h July, 2024
Pattern: FALLING WEDGE BREAKOUT
- Weekly Resistance Trendline Breakout - Done ✓
- Weekly Support Consolidation with Volumes buildup - Done ✓
- Strong Pullback from Weekly Support Level - Done ✓
- Demand Zone retest for a Small SL and a better RR - In Progress
* Disclaimer
7"NYKKA" FSN ECOMMERSE VENTURES LTD 28 WEEKS BREAKOUT WITH 1. NYKKA given a breakout in 135 days (28 Weeks) high and packed with the volume of 53.22M, And NYKAA' s last 30days average volume is 7.33M.
2. It was Created a range contraction between 139.8 to 195.50 (55.70 points, 39.84%), After this breakout this range might expand up to 111.4 points. In price levels the expansion will be leads to 306.9 levels.
3. Based on the Historical price action from 11th April 2022 to as of now there is no potential supply zones in Higher Timeframe like Weekly & Monthly between 294.15
4. Based on these analysis we can expect a Midterm price momentum in NYKKA up to 294.15 (94.12 Points, 47.05%) from CMP 200.03
5. In case if price comes down side for a retracement 172 to 178 area will act as a reversal zone because of Demand zone, Parallel EMA's and 0.618 Golden Ratio in of 139.8 to 195.5
CONCLUTION
Buy Trade Aggressive Entry CMP
Conservative Reversal Entry 178, If Price Come
Stoploss 170
Possible Target in Mid-term 294 (Weekly Supply Zone)
TRIDENT LTD. - Swing Trade Analysis - 30th July #stocksTRIDENT LTD (1W TF) - Swing Trade Analysis given on 30th July, 2024
Pattern: RECTANGLE BOX BREAKOUT
- Weekly Resistance Breakout Initiated - Done ✓
- Weekly Volume Buildup at Resistance - Done ✓
- Demand Zone Retest & Consolidation (for a small SL and a better RR) - In Progress
* Disclaimer
ADANI GREEN - Swing Trade Analysis - 26th July #stocksADANI GREEN (1W TF) - Swing Trade Analysis given on 26th July, 2024
Pattern: FALLING WEDGE BREAKOUT
- Weekly Resistance Trendline Breakout - Done ✓
- Strong Pullback from Weekly Support Level - Done ✓
- Demand Zone retest for a Small SL and a better RR - In Progress
* Disclaimer
#ADANIGREEN #niftyenergy