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10th Nov ’23 - PostMortem Nifty50 - Diwali Buyers are here ?Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my neutral stance but wish to go short if 19310 gets broken. Somehow I feel the chances of a fall have a higher probability than a rise. If we are breaking 19446 tomorrow, then I would like to wait till 19562 gets broken to change my stance to bullish.” If you watched the opening 45 minutes today, you would have believed that the chances of breaking 19310 were pretty high. The intraday low was 19329, just 19pts away from our go-bearish target. The main reason we had a weak opening would be attributed to the weak handover from US markets yesterday. SPX closed at -0.8% yesterday. Our markets had other plans today, the LOD was hit in the opening candle itself and then we started climbing. We climbed all the way up to 19446 resistance level and got timed out. So what was this outperformance all about? I guess people are ready to empty their DIWALI wallets to buy new stocks. Except for the first candle, all other candles were in green and somehow gave the impression of strength. It really takes so much power to rally right from the support zone to the resistance zone, so what Nifty50 did today was amazing. For monday, I wish to continue with the neutral stance - but a slight bias to the bullish side after seeing today’s momentum. The first level to watch will be 19562 on the upside and 19310 downside. We have a Muhurat Trading session at 6pm on Sunday 12th November as part of Diwali festival. Usually, people buy stocks for the long term on this special occasion. By default it is a bullish activity because more people come with the intention to buy - but I personally have no bias as I dont buy stocks when its overvalued. All these days, I was looking at how overvalued our stock indices were compared to global peers when Karachi100 got my attention. The chart below will amaze and amuse you. From June 2022, Karachi100 is up 37.87% compared to Nifty +3.48%.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Reliance & Metals drag Nifty below 17900NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 02-11-21 Here is wishing you and your families Happy Festivities! In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17970.90 H 18012.25 L 17847.60 C 17888.95 EOD - -40.7 points / -0.23% India VIX = 17.06 / -1.04% SGX Nifty 02-11-21 @ 1840h = +19 points FII DII = Not yet updated. It is likely to be negative from FII side. The 1355h candle was from their side is what I read. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a decent gap up and immediately shot up to 18000+ and then fell 100+ points and breached 17900 and then recovered and then again fell and yet again recovered mildly to hit 17940. Thereafter it again fell more than 75 points and breached 17850 on the downside and in the last 90 minutes struggled to close above 17900 even on a 5-minute candle. It was evident that the sentiment was not going to allow Nifty to close above 17900. Nifty has thus made higher highs and higher lows. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 27 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 50 Net = -23 POSITIVES Nifty hit a high above 18000. Bank Nifty is for now looking better placed than Nifty. It also went past 40000 during the day. NEGATIVES The inability of Nifty to hold on to the opening gains indicates that there is weakness in-store and unless that excess supply is taken out, Nifty is likely to keep facing this kind of behavior. Reliance is dragging Nifty and even the private banks have shown some weakness which impacted Nifty during the day. India Vix indicates that it is down but the volatility in Nifty was intense and the moves were fast and very choppy even within a narrow range. For over 90 minutes Nifty made several attempts to breach past 17900+ levels but it could not manage to close above the line except for 1 candle where it tested the previous close. TRADING RANGE FOR 03 November 2021 Nifty Support 17600-17700 Nifty resistance 17900-17950-18000-18100 Bank Nifty Support 39000-200 Bank Nifty Resistance 40000-40200-40400 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Nifty was managed in such a way that it would end below 17900 - maybe this was to deflate 17900 CE premium or to simply let the call writers exit their positions intraday in gain. Nifty has developed this not-so-good tendency to get sold off at the opening high and never retest during the day. Previous Close level has never be so very well resisted as Nifty has been doing recently as if this is a bearish market. What do you feel about this? Here is the video link -- Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 02-11--21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT