10th Nov ’23 - PostMortem Nifty50 - Diwali Buyers are here ?

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my neutral stance but wish to go short if 19310 gets broken. Somehow I feel the chances of a fall have a higher probability than a rise. If we are breaking 19446 tomorrow, then I would like to wait till 19562 gets broken to change my stance to bullish.”

If you watched the opening 45 minutes today, you would have believed that the chances of breaking 19310 were pretty high. The intraday low was 19329, just 19pts away from our go-bearish target. The main reason we had a weak opening would be attributed to the weak handover from US markets yesterday. SPX closed at -0.8% yesterday.
Our markets had other plans today, the LOD was hit in the opening candle itself and then we started climbing. We climbed all the way up to 19446 resistance level and got timed out. So what was this outperformance all about? I guess people are ready to empty their DIWALI wallets to buy new stocks.

Except for the first candle, all other candles were in green and somehow gave the impression of strength. It really takes so much power to rally right from the support zone to the resistance zone, so what Nifty50 did today was amazing. For monday, I wish to continue with the neutral stance - but a slight bias to the bullish side after seeing today’s momentum. The first level to watch will be 19562 on the upside and 19310 downside.

We have a Muhurat Trading session at 6pm on Sunday 12th November as part of Diwali festival. Usually, people buy stocks for the long term on this special occasion. By default it is a bullish activity because more people come with the intention to buy - but I personally have no bias as I dont buy stocks when its overvalued. All these days, I was looking at how overvalued our stock indices were compared to global peers when Karachi100 got my attention. The chart below will amaze and amuse you. From June 2022, Karachi100 is up 37.87% compared to Nifty +3.48%.


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