11th Nov ’23 Nifty PostMortem - US CPI spoils the play totally
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “Since its a holiday tomorrow, the view for Wednesday could be a bit complicated. Ideally, I wish to maintain the neutral stance as nothing has changed but how SPX behaves today and tomorrow also has to be considered.”
It indeed became pretty complicated today, we directly jumped from below the resistance point to well over the support point i.e. below 19446 to above 19562. The gap-up was almost 212pts ~ 1.09%, the reason - Lesser than expected US CPI (Inflation data). In fact, the US CPI was only 10 basis points below the expectation, but it gave a feeling of “no more rate hikes” by FED. SPX ended yesterday with a gain of 1.91% and for the first time, I regret having a holiday in between.
When there is news, technical analysis will go for a spin and if you have a holiday in between - it will be a tailspin. I had to change my stance from neutral to bullish in the opening minutes itself as it went above the resistance of 19562. Even though we had a tail in the opening 5mts candle, it ended up holding its ground. Nifty picked up some more strength as time passed by and we closed toward the high point of the day.
On the 1hr chart, the next target to break will be 19776 which is just 100pts away. Something that is easily possible if SPX holds its ground today. Since most of the market participants are long-only, any upsurge will sweep in more market participants. To change my stance back to neutral, Nifty has to fall below 19562 and stay down tomorrow.
Recap from yesterday: “Since its a holiday tomorrow, the view for Wednesday could be a bit complicated. Ideally, I wish to maintain the neutral stance as nothing has changed but how SPX behaves today and tomorrow also has to be considered.”
It indeed became pretty complicated today, we directly jumped from below the resistance point to well over the support point i.e. below 19446 to above 19562. The gap-up was almost 212pts ~ 1.09%, the reason - Lesser than expected US CPI (Inflation data). In fact, the US CPI was only 10 basis points below the expectation, but it gave a feeling of “no more rate hikes” by FED. SPX ended yesterday with a gain of 1.91% and for the first time, I regret having a holiday in between.
When there is news, technical analysis will go for a spin and if you have a holiday in between - it will be a tailspin. I had to change my stance from neutral to bullish in the opening minutes itself as it went above the resistance of 19562. Even though we had a tail in the opening 5mts candle, it ended up holding its ground. Nifty picked up some more strength as time passed by and we closed toward the high point of the day.
On the 1hr chart, the next target to break will be 19776 which is just 100pts away. Something that is easily possible if SPX holds its ground today. Since most of the market participants are long-only, any upsurge will sweep in more market participants. To change my stance back to neutral, Nifty has to fall below 19562 and stay down tomorrow.
