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GBPUSD: Testing key support as Cable traders await major UK dataGBPUSD pokes a three-month support region as pressure builds ahead of the UK employment and inflation data, as well as the US Retail Sales, set to release this week. Pound Sterling bears flex muscles Despite several technical levels testing the GBPUSD sellers, a potential bear cross between the 100-bar and 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) keeps the bears optimistic. The weakening bullish momentum in the MACD and a steady RSI support the downside outlook. Additionally, a sustained break below an ascending support line from early August, now acting as resistance, favors the bears. Key technical levels to watch The GBPUSD pair is currently held up by a three-month support zone around 1.3040-30, just above the psychological level of 1.3000. If it drops below 1.3000, a quick decline to the late July swing high around 1.2940 and then to early August peaks near 1.2870-60 could follow. In a case where the Pound Sterling remains bearish past 1.2860, it becomes vulnerable to slump toward August’s bottom of near 1.2665. On the flip side, GBPUSD recovery remains elusive below the 100 and 200 EMAs, currently near 1.3145 and 1.3150. A seven-week horizontal resistance zone near 1.3230-40 and a previous support line around 1.3330 also pose challenges for Cable buyers. If bulls can push past 1.3330, a rally toward the last monthly high near 1.3435 is possible. Sellers stay in control While robust technical support is challenging GBP/USD sellers, a dovish outlook for the Bank of England and anticipated weak UK data, alongside rising hawkish sentiment from the Fed, may keep bears in control. Upcoming data could create some volatility, but the bearish sentiment remains strong.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold: Bulls seek $2,647 breakout and US data validationGold prices continue to recover after the US inflation data, despite staying within a two-week bearish trend. Early Friday, buyers look forward to the first readings of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Inflation Expectations for October, along with the September Producer Price Index (PPI). Bulls brace for fresh record high Whether it's the US Dollar's muted reaction to better-than-forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI), optimism around potential stimulus from China, or expectations of softer US data, gold prices aim for a fresh all-time high. Technically, the recent breakout above the 100-SMA, bullish MACD signals, and a positive RSI (14) reinforce the upward momentum. Technical levels to watch Among the key technical levels, $2,647 gains immediate attention as it comprises the top of the bearish channel, a break of which will defy the fortnight-long bearish chart pattern. Following that, the precious metal’s quick jump toward the all-time high surrounding $2,685 can’t be ruled out. Moreover, a clear breakout past $2,685 would signal strong momentum for gold buyers, potentially paving the way for a rise beyond the $2,700 mark. On the downside, the 100-SMA at $2,636 provides immediate support for gold prices, alongside an upward-sloping trend line from early August near the $2,600 mark. If XAUUSD falls below $2,600, the focus will shift to the bottom of the bearish channel and the 200-SMA, which are near $2,595 and $2,580, respectively. Notably, if prices break below $2,580, gold could enter a short-term bearish trend, potentially targeting the $2,540-$2,530 range. Upside looks promising With expectations of lower Fed rates and potential softness in upcoming US data, combined with bullish technical indicators, gold prices seem poised for upward movement. This bullish outlook could change only if the US statistics challenge the likelihood of two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would negatively impact the US Dollar—an outcome that appears unlikely.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD: Bears focus on 1.0800 and US Inflation cluesEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in eight weeks as traders await September's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, especially after the previous day’s FOMC Minutes drowned the Euro pair. Bears keep the driver’s seat Apart from the US Dollar’s run-up post-Fed Minutes, the EURUSD pair’s confirmation of “Double Tops” bearish chart formation and a clear break of a 15-week-old rising support line add strength to the downside bias. It’s worth noting, however, that the oversold RSI (14) line and sluggish MACD signals challenge intraday sellers, along with the pre-data consolidation. Key technical levels to watch The 50% Fibonacci level from the EURUSD’s June to September rise, around 1.0940, limits immediate downside. The next significant support is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.0870, known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio.” If the price breaks below 1.0870, it could lead to a drop toward the bearish target from the "Double Tops" pattern, around 1.0800. On the upside, the EURUSD recovery is unlikely unless it surpasses the 1.1010 level. The previous support line, now acting as resistance, is near 1.1000. In a case where the Euro buyers manage to stay onboard past 1.1010, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the double tops, respectively near 1.1085 and 1.1200, will be on their radars. Further downside expected While an oversold RSI and potentially softening US inflation data may pose challenges for US Dollar bulls, EURUSD bears remain encouraged. The confirmation of a bearish chart formation, combined with the European Central Bank's (ECB) more dovish stance compared to the Federal Reserve (Fed), keeps the sellers optimistic about further declines.
by MTradingGlobal
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USDJPY: Sellers pay attention to 146.40, Fed Minutes and US CPIEarly Tuesday, USDJPY remains weak after retreating from a seven-week high. The pair defends the previous day’s pullback from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as traders await key events this week, including the US Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Bulls remain in the driver’s seat Despite the pre-data consolidation and retreat from the 100-EMA, USDJPY's stronghold above the 50-EMA, bullish MACD signals, and a positive RSI (14) suggest an overall upside bias. Important technical levels to watch USDJPY faces immediate downside support in the 147.35-20 range, but the key level to watch is the 50-EMA near 146.40. A break below this could lead to a quick drop to 145.00 and the late September low around 141.65. The 140.45-20 area and the psychological level at 140.00 may pose strong resistance for sellers. On the upside, a break above the 100-EMA around 148.75 won’t be enough for buyers to regain control, as resistance from the 200-EMA and mid-August high near 149.40 will be crucial. If USDJPY stays above 149.40, the 150.00 mark and early 2024 high near 150.90 will be key targets for bulls. Data/events are the key USDJPY's technical outlook is bullish, supported by a hawkish Fed stance following recent comments from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell and the US employment report. However, growing concerns about the Bank of Japan, potential softness in US inflation data, and Powell's challenges in maintaining a hawkish tone could attract sellers to the Yen pair.
by MTradingGlobal
Bitcoin: BTCUSD extends recovery from 200-SMA to trim lossesBitcoin (BTCUSD) rises to a week’s high, continuing its rebound from the 200-SMA and breaking through the 100-bar simple moving average (SMA). BTCUSD bulls aim for a new three-month high! Along with a solid bounce from the 200-SMA, a positive RSI (14) and bullish MACD signals support BTCUSD’s push past the 100-SMA. This indicates potential for more gains, even though the RSI is nearing overbought territory, suggesting limited upward movement soon. Key technical levels to watch… With Bitcoin’s strong recovery from the 200-SMA and a successful run-up beyond the 100-SMA, buyers are ready to challenge a six-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $64,700. However, they may face hurdles at the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement of July-August downside near $65,700 and an upward trendline from late August around $66,900 afterward. On the downside, the 100-SMA around $63,300 is holding BTCUSD up, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support is near $62,200. That said, another key support is found at the 200-day moving average of around $60,700, with the psychological level of $60,000 serving as buyers' last line of defense. Recovery remains preferable… With Bitcoin bouncing back from key moving averages and a potential pullback in the US Dollar due to upcoming US inflation data and FOMC minutes, BTCUSD looks set for further upside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MTradingGlobal
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Gold approaches key upside hurdle ahead of US PCE InflationAfter hitting an all-time high, gold prices are losing momentum as buyers await the US September Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation. Bulls may slow down, but are still in the game On Thursday, FOMC Chair Jerome Powell's reluctance to discuss monetary policy joined the market’s dovish bets on the US central bank to propel the Gold price, especially amid the rush for a haven amid uncertain markets. Technically, the bullish MACD signals add strength to the upside bias for the precious metal. However, the overbought RSI (14) and nearness to an upward-sloping resistance line from December 2023, close to $2,695 at the latest, challenge the bullion’s further advances. Technical levels to watch With the overbought RSI indicating a $2,695 hurdle for gold buyers, the $2,700 level serves as an additional barrier to monitor for better trading opportunities. Beyond that, a potential surge toward the 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of February-June moves, near $2,757, can’t be ruled out. Gold sellers should watch for a clear break below the four-month resistance line at $2,620. If this occurs, the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci Extension levels around $2,578 and $2,522 could draw in bears. Key targets below $2,522 include $2,467 and $2,399. That said, a break below the convergence of the 200-SMA and a year-long support line at $2,288 could signal a trend change for traders. What next? A positive surprise from the US Core PCE Price Index could spark the anticipated pullback in gold prices. However, the dovish Fed stance and strong technical support may prevent XAUUSD bears from gaining control.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Bitcoin: BTCUSD pierces 200-SMA, but buyers face challengesBitcoin (BTC) has climbed to its highest level in a month, crossing the important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) early Monday. This rise continues a two-week upward trend, supported by a weaker US Dollar. However, traders are feeling cautious as they prepare for a big week ahead, which includes the preliminary PMIs for September, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Bulls gain acceptance Despite hesitance due to upcoming data, Bitcoin buyers are gaining confidence after crossing the key moving average. Positive MACD signals, a strong RSI, and a successful rebound from a two-week rising support line are pushing back against bearish sentiment for the cryptocurrency pair. Key technical levels to watch As Bitcoin buyers gain strength, they must overcome a horizontal resistance zone around $65,100–$65,400. If they succeed, the next challenge will be a downward trend line from mid-March, currently near $68,500, before they can aim for the yearly high of about $73,800. Notably, the $70,000 and $72,000 levels will serve as additional hurdles. Conversely, sellers need to break below the 200-day moving average at around $63,900 to take control. However, they will face challenges at the rising support line near $61,000 and the psychological level of $60,000. If they manage to push lower, they might target $57,000 initially, followed by a monthly low of around $52,550. Poised for short-term strength With strong technical signals and a generally weaker US Dollar boosting trader confidence, Bitcoin (BTC) prices are expected to stay solid in the short term. However, a series of resistance levels may challenge the bulls along the way.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD: Bears Eye 1.0980 as ECB Interest Rate Decision LoomsEURUSD prints its first daily gain in five days as traders recover from a month-long low, preparing for the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming policy announcements. Despite the recent slowing of US inflation and speculation about possible significant rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve in late 2024, the Euro bulls remain cautious due to the ECB's dovish stance and economic concerns in the Eurozone. EURUSD sellers keep control Even though the Euro is recovering before the key event, the overall bearish outlook for the pair remains intact. It continues to show weakness with the 20-EMA breakdown early in the week, bearish MACD signals, and a steady RSI (14) line. Key technical levels to watch Among the key technical levels, sellers are particularly focused on the convergence of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a previous resistance line around 1.0980. Following that, an ascending support line from late June near 1.0900 is also important to monitor. If the price remains below 1.0900, it could drop further to the previous monthly low around 1.0790. On the other hand, for EURUSD buyers to regain control, they need to see the price break above the 21-day EMA at around 1.1050 and a falling resistance line at about 1.1070. Additionally, a hawkish rate cut from the ECB would support this move. If the price manages to rise past 1.1070, it could test the monthly high of 1.1155 and the yearly peak around 1.1200. Downside bias gains acceptance Looking ahead, there's uncertainty about the ECB’s upcoming rate decision. Some traders anticipate a 0.50% cut, while most expect a smaller 0.25% reduction. If the ECB surprises the market with a more aggressive or unexpected rate move, it could lead to significant volatility. Therefore, EURUSD traders should hold off on new trades until the ECB's decision is announced. They should set a stop-loss to manage their risk if they are currently holding short positions.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: "Death Cross" makes sellers optimisticUSDJPY ends a four-day decline and rebounds from its lowest point in a month as traders start the US inflation week with mixed feelings, especially after a disappointing employment report on Friday. Sellers are in control Despite the brief pause to recover from an ascending support line from late December 2023, the "Death Cross" on the moving averages and a possible bearish cross on the MACD suggest that sellers remain dominant. Technical levels to watch Given that the RSI is nearly oversold and the market is adjusting its previous movements, USDJPY might continue its recent recovery towards a resistance zone from a month ago, around 143.45-60. After that, a downward-sloping resistance line from early August, near 146.60, will challenge buyers before they can take full control. If they succeed, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from July 2023 to 2024, around 149.60, and the 200-SMA level at 151.05 could attract more buying interest. On the other hand, sellers might look for a daily close below a long-term rising support line, around 141.90. They should also watch for the late 2023 low around 140.25 and the 140.00 level, which could provide additional support before aiming for the mid-2023 low of 137.25. What next? The USDJPY pair might see a rebound as the market consolidates before the important US inflation data is released on Thursday. However, the bearish trend will continue unless the price stays below the 200-SMA.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold: Buyers await triangle breakout, Fed inflationGold prices are currently stable within a triangle pattern that's been forming for a week. Traders are waiting for the US Core PCE Price Index data for August, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Gold prices have been fluctuating around last week’s record high, and technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest mixed signals. Buyers are optimistic… Even though gold doesn’t have strong upward momentum right now, last week’s rebound from a key support level, combined with weak US data and a dovish Fed outlook, keeps buyers hopeful. Uncertainty about the global economy and central banks cutting rates also supports this optimism. Key technical levels to watch… Gold’s movement is currently limited between $2,530 and $2,504. If it breaks above $2,530 and stays above the recent peak of $2,532, it could move towards $2,600. The triangle pattern suggests an intermediate target of around $2,590. Meanwhile, a downside break of the stated triangle’s bottom line, close to $2,504, will need validation from the $2,500 psychological magnet and the previous resistance line stretched from mid-July, now support around $2,472, to convince Gold sellers. Even so, a two-month-old ascending trend line surrounding $2,427 will act as the final defense of the buyers. What next? Gold is on a positive path and could reach new highs, especially amid the dovish Fed outlook. Even if the upcoming US inflation data is strong, it might only cause a short-term dip, which could be a new buying opportunity.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD: Rising wedge signals bullish exhaustion, focus on dataEURUSD pares its biggest daily loss in 11 weeks early Thursday. In doing so, it's bouncing back from a key support level and the 50-Exponential Moving Average (EMA). EURUSD bulls take a breather… This rebound suggests that the Euro might be running out of steam before important economic data is released. Among them, the first reading of Germany’s inflation for August and the US Q2 GDP’s revision gain the attention of intraday traders. That said, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators suggest a potential bullish trend, but confirmation is needed. Key technical levels to watch… The EURUSD buyers need validation from a one-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.1150 and the US/German data to keep the reins. Following that, the yearly high marked earlier in the week around 1.1200 will lure the Euro bulls. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.1200, the aforementioned wedge’s top line of near 1.1250 and the previous yearly top of 1.1275 will act as the final defenses of the sellers. On the contrary, EURUSD sellers must wait for a clear downside break of 1.1100 to confirm the bearish chart formation and aim for further declines. In that case, a convergence of the 200-EMA and an ascending trend line from early June, the previous resistance near 1.0980, will be in the spotlight. Should the pair remain bearish past 1.0980, the odds of witnessing further downward trajectory toward the rising wedge’s theoretical target of 1.0680 can’t be ruled out. What next? In summary, the EURUSD is currently on a positive track, but further gains may depend on upcoming economic data and potential pullbacks.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Off 13-month-old support during short-term downtrendUSDJPY has bounced back from a key support level that’s been in place for 13 months but remains in a short-term downtrend. The pair faces resistance from this old support line, now turned resistance, and the 21-day moving average (SMA). USDJPY recovery appears unreal… Although USDJPY is recovering from significant trendline support of around 143.70, indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest a strong bullish trend may not be likely. Additionally, market uncertainty before upcoming Japanese economic data and the US Core PCE Price Index (a key inflation measure) adds to the uncertainty. Key technical levels to watch… USDJPY pair’s recovery appears less convincing unless it crosses the 200-SMA hurdle of 151.20. That said, the 21-SMA and the multi-month-old previous support line, respectively near 146.40 and 149.80, quickly followed by the 150.00 threshold, will challenge the buyers before giving them control. On the contrary, a daily closing beneath the 143.70 trend line support will direct the USDJPY bears toward the late 2023 bottom surrounding 140.45 and the 140.00 psychological magnet. In a case where the prices remain bearish past 140.00, an area comprising levels marked since March 2023, close to 137.90-70, will be the last defense of the buyers. What next? USDJPY is at a critical support level. A short-term bounce is possible, but the chance of further declines is higher unless the pair breaks through the 151.20 resistance.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD hovers at 29-month high on UK Bank HolidayGBPUSD licks its wounds at the highest level since March 2022 as the overbought RSI line jostles with an upside break of the ascending resistance line, now support around 1.3060. This breakout, along with strong MACD signals and a weaker US Dollar, could push the pair towards the 1.3440 level, where it meets the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from May 2021 to September 2022. However, reaching the 1.3620 resistance level might be challenging for buyers. On the flip side, the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line puts a floor under the GBPUSD prices around 1.3060. That said, the 1.3000 psychological magnet also acts as a short-term support for the Cable pair traders to watch. In a case where the Pound Sterling bears keep the reins past 1.3000, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, also known as the Golden Fibonacci Ratio, near 1.2780, quickly followed by the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) surrounding 1.2730, will act as the final defenses of the buyers. Overall, GBPUSD is gearing up to test a long-term resistance line. With the UK on holiday and a cautious market awaiting US inflation data, the pair might pause its advance early this week.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers stay optimistic around mid-$2,400s within triangleGold has ended a two-day drop by bouncing off its 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) within a symmetrical triangle pattern that's been forming for seven weeks. This bounce supports the idea that the Fed might cut rates, together with the positive MACD signals and the trend-favorable RSI line. The key levels to watch are the triangle's range of $2,475 to $2,393 and the 50-day EMA support at $2,391. If gold moves past $2,475, it could test an upward resistance line from early April, reaching around $2,498. After that, $2,500 will be an additional hurdle for the metal before potentially rising to $2,522 and $2,562, which are based on 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions of gold's moves from March to July. If gold falls below $2,391, it might drop to the late July low of about $2,353 and then to $2,350. There's also a strong support region between $2,293 and $2,285 from late April to June, which if broken, could push gold towards $2,200. Overall, gold is performing well due to positive technical indicators and concerns about possible US Fed rate cuts, supported by recent US inflation data.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY eyes another bear run, focus on Japan GDP, US inflationEarly Monday, the USDJPY has risen slightly above 147.00 after its first weekly gain in six weeks. This increase follows a rebound from a seven-month low. The rise is supported by a recovery in the RSI and positive signals from the MACD. However, the pair’s failure to defend a week-long bullish trend channel and its continued trading below the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) still keeps bears hopeful. Additionally, a downward trend line from early July suggests that sellers still control the market. The USDJPY is likely to stay under pressure unless it can rise above a resistance line near 150.80. Currently, the 50-EMA and the lower end of the rising channel, around 147.85-90, are key levels to watch. The 150.00 level may offer additional resistance, and if the pair can surpass 150.80, it might target around 155.50. On the downside, immediate support levels to watch are 145.50 and 143.30. If the price falls further, the monthly low near 141.70 and the psychological level of 140.00 could come into play. If the USDJPY drops below 140.00, it might test the mid-2023 low around 137.25. While technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for USDJPY, traders should be cautious due to upcoming economic data releases, including Japan’s Q2 GDP and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
by MTradingGlobal
Gold price rebounds from 50-SMA ahead of Fed inflationGold consolidates weekly loss while posting a corrective bounce from the lowest level in 13 days as traders await the US Core PCE Price Index for June, also known as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. In doing so, the precious metal takes a U-turn from the 50-SMA but stays on the way to posting a second consecutive weekly loss after refreshing the all-time high during mid-July. Despite the latest rebound in prices, the commodity’s sustained trading below a month-old rising support line, now resistance near $2,428, joins the bearish MACD signals and steady RSI (14) line to keep the sellers hopeful. However, a clear downside break of the 50-SMA level of $2,359 becomes necessary to recall the bullion sellers. Following that, the 100-SMA level of $2,324 and an upward-sloping support line from early May, near the $2,300 threshold, appear as some of the last defenses of the buyers. It’s worth observing that lows marked in May and June around $2,285 and $2,277 will act as additional downside filters for the metal traders to watch during its declines past $2,300. Meanwhile, the 21-SMA level of $2,388 and the $2,400 threshold guard the immediate upside of the Gold price ahead of the support-turned-resistance line surrounding $2,428. Following that, May’s high of $2,450 and the latest peak surrounding $2,484 could entertain the XAUUSD bulls. However, an upward-sloping trend line resistance from early April, near $2,490 as we write, quickly followed by the $2,500 round figure, appear tough nuts to crack for the bullion buyers. To sum up, Gold is likely to remain pressured within a trading range established since April. However, the trend line breakdown can join upbeat Fed inflation to please short-term sellers.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls run out of steam near 1.3000, UK inflation eyedGBPUSD seesaws at the highest level in a year ahead of the UK’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June. In doing so, the Cable pair justifies the overbought RSI (14) line as buyers struggle around a one-year-old horizontal resistance zone, close to 1.2995-3000. It’s worth noting, however, that the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from July 2023, now support around 1.2840, keeps the bulls hopeful. Even if the pair drops beneath the 1.2840 resistance-turned-support, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2627 will be the last defense of the bulls. It should be observed that the 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the quote’s July-October 2023 downturn, respectively near 1.2910 and 1.2720, are additional downside filters to watch during the bear run. Alternatively, GBPUSD bulls need validation from the upbeat UK inflation clues and the 1.2995-3000 upside hurdle to keep the reins. Following that, the Pound Sterling could rise toward the previous yearly high of 1.3142. However, the 1.3100 threshold may act as an intermediate halt during the rise. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3142, the late 2021 swing low of around 1.3150-55 and the 1.3200 round figure can test the bulls before directing them toward the January 2022 low of near 1.3355. Overall, GBPUSD appears overdue for a pullback but the bullish trend could remain intact.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers need validation from $2,387-93 hurdle & US inflationGold price rises for the third consecutive day while paring weekly loss ahead of the key US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. In doing so, the precious metal justifies the bullish crossover of the 100-SMA to the 200-SMA and the firmer RSI (14) line. However, a month-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding $2,387-93 joins the sluggish MACD signals to challenge the bullion buyers. Should the quote stay firmer past $2,393, its run-up toward the $2,400 threshold and then to a 13-week-long horizontal resistance area near $2,431-34 will be quick. It’s worth mentioning that the XAUUSD’s successful rise past $2,434 won’t hesitate to renew the all-time high, currently marked in May at around $2,450. Meanwhile, a pullback in the Gold price highlights a fortnight-long rising support line, close to $2,365 at the latest. Following that, the 100-SMA and the 200-SMA will test the XAUUSD sellers around $2,342 and $2,337 respectively. In a case where the precious metal remains bearish past $2,337, traders can aim for $2,318 before jostling with an ascending support line from early April surrounding $2,298. If the bullion price holds onto the downward trajectory below $2,298, the $2,265 will act as the final defense of the buyers. Overall, Gold price remains in the bullish trajectory ahead of important data and hence softer/mixed prints of the US CPI can allow the buyers to cross the immediate upside hurdle.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Crude Oil retreats from 11-week high as eventful week beginsWTI Crude Oil remains pressured after reversing from an 11-week high the previous day, especially when the US Dollar posts a corrective bounce ahead of this week’s top-tier data/events. The black gold’s retreat also highlights the importance of the support-turned-resistance line stretched from mid-December 2023 and a downward-sloping trend line from late September last year. It’s worth noting that the RSI’s pullback from the overbought territory and the receding bullish bias of the MACD signals also favor the energy benchmark’s latest consolidation. With this, the quote will likely extend the latest fall toward testing the 10-SMA support of $82.50. However, the 50% Fibonacci ratio of the commodity’s late 2023 fall and the 100-SMA, respectively near $81.40 and $80.40, quickly followed by the $80.00 psychological magnet, will challenge the Oil bears afterward. In a case where the prices remain weak past $80.00, an area comprising tops marked from mid-November 2023 to January 2024 near $79.70-25, will be the last defense of the buyers before giving control to the bears. Meanwhile, a downward-sloping resistance line from September 2023, close to $84.10 at the latest, guards the immediate upside of the black gold. Following that, the previous support line from late 2023 will test the oil buyers near $84.70. It’s worth noting, however, that a 9.5-month-old falling resistance line surrounding $86.50 appears a tough nut to crack for the commodity buyers, a break of which will allow them to challenge the yearly high of $87.60. Overall, Crude Oil is likely to witness further consolidation in prices as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s bi-annual Testimony and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) loom.
TVC:USOIL
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD drops within a symmetrical triangle after RBA MinutesAUDUSD extends the week-start losses toward 0.6600 as Minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting fail to inspire the bulls despite pushing back the odds of rate cuts, especially backed by the recent upbeat Australian inflation clues. It’s worth noting, however, that the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a fortnight-old rising support line, respectively near 0.6645 and 0.6630, restrict the short-term downside of the Aussie pair within a two-month-old symmetrical triangle formation, currently between 0.6700 and 0.6585. Given the normal RSI conditions and the sluggish MACD signals, the quote is likely to remain chopped within the stated triangle. Even so, increasing odds of the US Dollar’s run-up on hawkish Fed Minutes and the upbeat US jobs report keep the sellers hopeful. That said, a clear downside break of 0.6585 makes the pair vulnerable to slump toward a 2.5-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 0.6455-65. On the contrary, AUDUSD buyers need validation from the downbeat US data/events, as well as the previously stated triangle’s top-line surrounding the 0.6700 threshold, to retake control. In that case, the yearly high marked in May around 0.6715 acts as an extra filter toward the north before fuelling the Aussie prices toward the late 2023 peak of around 0.6870. It should be observed that the 0.6800 round figure and the mid-2023 tops near 0.6900 will also challenge the quote’s advances ahead of highlighting the 0.7000 psychological magnet. Overall, the AUDUSD pair is likely to remain depressed within a short-term triangle formation ahead of the key US data/events.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY grinds within a fortnight-old bullish channelUSDJPY stays mildly bid around 161.00 early Monday as traders await the key US data/events scheduled for release during the week. In doing so, the Yen pair defends the previous three-week uptrend while approaching the highest level since 1986, marked the last week, by being within a fortnight-long bullish trend channel. It’s worth noting, however, that the nearly overbought RSI conditions and the sluggish MACD signals could join the market’s cautious mood and recently firmer Japan data to challenge the buyers around the multi-year high. The latest peak of nearly 161.30 appears an immediate upside hurdle to watch during further advances. Following that, the aforementioned rising trend channel’s top line surrounding 161.60 may test the bulls targeting the late 1986 high of 164.50. Conversely, a convergence of the bullish channel’s bottom line and the year 1990’s high, close to 160.40, appears a tough nut to crack for the USDJPY bears. Even if the Yen pair sellers manage to conquer the 160.40 hurdle, April’s peak of 160.20 and the 160.00 psychological magnet will challenge the sellers before giving them control. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 160.00, the 1.5-month-old resistance-turned-support and the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 159.60 and 158.75, will be the last defense of the buyers. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains within a bullish trajectory but the buyers are likely to have a long and bumpy road ahead.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD approaches multi-month-old support ahead of Fed inflationEURUSD struggles to defend the first weekly gain in four as sellers appear more inclined to revisit an upward-sloping support line from early October 2023. That said, the Euro pair’s failure to keep Thursday’s rebound from the stated support line joins the bearish MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core PCE Price Index. However, a daily closing beneath the aforementioned key technical support surrounding 1.0665 becomes necessary for the bears to tighten their grip. Following that, the quote becomes vulnerable to slump toward the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600. In a case where the downbeat RSI conditions and the stated 1.0600 support fail to stop the sellers, the prices could well aim for the year 2023 to bottom close to 1.0450. Meanwhile, EURUSD recovery remains elusive unless it stays beneath a convergence of the 200 and 100 SMAs, close to 1.0790 by the press time. That said, the 1.0750 and the 1.0800 thresholds are extra upside filters to watch during the quote’s fresh rise in case of the downside US data. It’s worth noting that the Euro pair’s successful run-up beyond 1.0800 will enable buyers to aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of late 2023 fall, around 1.0865, but a descending trend line from early January 2024, close to 1.0900, will challenge the upside afterward. Even if the quote manages to remain firmer past 1.0900, an 11-month-long falling resistance line near 1.0990 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet will be tough nuts to crack for the bulls. Overall, EURUSD bears keep the reins ahead of the key US data but the quote’s further downside hinges on the strong US inflation clues and a clear break of the 1.0665 support.
by MTradingGlobal
Oversold RSI, $2,293 key support challenge Gold sellersGold price remains pressured at the lowest level in a fortnight while justifying the previous day’s downside break of a three-week-old rising support line, now immediate resistance. It’s worth noting, however, that the cautious mood ahead of this week’s key US data/events joins the oversold RSI conditions and an upward-sloping support trend line from early April to challenge bears around $2,2932 of late. Among the key data/events, the US Durable Goods Orders, a debate between the US Presidential Candidate Joe Biden and Donald Trump, as well as the US Core PCE Price Index, also known as the Fed’s preferred inflation, will gain major attention. It should be observed that the XAUUSD’s sustained trading beneath the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and bearish MACD signals join the aforementioned trend line break to help the sellers break the $2,293 key support. That said, the monthly low of around $2,286, May’s bottom surrounding $2,277 and early April swing lows around $2,267 are additional downside filters to watch during the bullion’s weakness past $2,293. Following that, the 76.8% Fibonacci ratio of the precious metal’s March-May run-up, near $2,210 will act as the final defense of the buyers before directing prices toward March’s monthly low of near $2,146. Meanwhile, the Gold price recovery needs validation from the catalysts weighing on the US Dollar. Also challenging the XAUUSD bulls is a convergence of the 50-EMA and a three-week-old previous support line, close to $2,324 by the press time. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past $2,324, a descending resistance line from June 07 surrounding $2,364 and the monthly high of near $2,387 will be on the buyer’s radar. Above all, a horizontal area comprising tops marked since April 12, near $2,432-35, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. To sum up, Gold price is likely to stay depressed but the further downside needs support from fundamentals to favour the bears.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal