9th Nov ’23 - Nifty PostMortem - The opening candle surprises...
Nifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has risen 260pts ~ 1.36% and has crossed 2 important resistance levels. The bullish momentum has stalled a little bit from 6th of Nov. If further trades happen toward the downside, then the current level will act as a lower high.
Nifty Today Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “In line with yesterday’s research, I have changed my stance from bullish to neutral. To go long not only Nifty has to break through the 19446 barrier but trade above 19561 levels. Whereas to go short, a break below 19310 would be enough.”
The opening 5mts candle surprises again, it tells me there is some seller who wishes to push the market down very seriously but not getting enough participants. So the first candle is in deep RED and then we recover that dip till noon.
Nifty was unable to break through the 19446 resistance twice today - which shows the lack of momentum for the bulls. Even though I changed my stance to neutral, it did not help me win money in today’s expiry. Primarily because the options premiums were too low that I did not feel selling too close to the money. Secondly, the bearish move came very late in the day that it did not really help my long PUT position. I took long PUT to counterbalance the long CALL when we were bullish. Against the long PUT, I shorted OTM PUTS to offset the premium paid. Net result - no win, no loss.
On the 1hr TF, it seems like we are making an interim top as multiple attempts to break through @ 19446 have failed. For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my neutral stance but wish to go short if 19310 gets broken. Somehow I feel the chances of a fall have a higher probability than a rise. If we are breaking 19446 tomorrow, then I would like to wait till 19562 gets broken to change my stance to bullish.
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has risen 260pts ~ 1.36% and has crossed 2 important resistance levels. The bullish momentum has stalled a little bit from 6th of Nov. If further trades happen toward the downside, then the current level will act as a lower high.
Nifty Today Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “In line with yesterday’s research, I have changed my stance from bullish to neutral. To go long not only Nifty has to break through the 19446 barrier but trade above 19561 levels. Whereas to go short, a break below 19310 would be enough.”
The opening 5mts candle surprises again, it tells me there is some seller who wishes to push the market down very seriously but not getting enough participants. So the first candle is in deep RED and then we recover that dip till noon.
Nifty was unable to break through the 19446 resistance twice today - which shows the lack of momentum for the bulls. Even though I changed my stance to neutral, it did not help me win money in today’s expiry. Primarily because the options premiums were too low that I did not feel selling too close to the money. Secondly, the bearish move came very late in the day that it did not really help my long PUT position. I took long PUT to counterbalance the long CALL when we were bullish. Against the long PUT, I shorted OTM PUTS to offset the premium paid. Net result - no win, no loss.
On the 1hr TF, it seems like we are making an interim top as multiple attempts to break through @ 19446 have failed. For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my neutral stance but wish to go short if 19310 gets broken. Somehow I feel the chances of a fall have a higher probability than a rise. If we are breaking 19446 tomorrow, then I would like to wait till 19562 gets broken to change my stance to bullish.
