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Dowjones

Historical Impact of Fed Interest Rates on Dow JonesThe current market cycle looks eerily similar to the 2005 - 2010 era. Dow started going up after the last rate hike in expectation of a rate cut and eventually peaked around the time the cut started i.e. Sep 2007. Very similar behaviour is evident in current cycle where market has been rising since the last rate hike. If the Fed cut is expected in June 2024, then there is still some upmove left, but we are close to the top. P.S.: 1: Numbers mentioned are the rates after the said action. 2: Similar price action was developing in 2015-2020 period, however, it can't be considered as a valid reference on account of COVID crash.
TVC:DJI
by pankajarora232
5
US 30/ Dow Jones 1D Trade Setup - The US Index is currently trading on its All-Time High - From a Trade Perspective, I would like to wait and watch out what the FED delivers in the FOMC statement - The rate-cut bets are now fading away and making it look tough for traders that the FED will cut rates - Inflation is currently sitting at 3.4% - Cutting rates fundamentally doesn't look feasible as long as the FED doesn't achieve its target of 2%. We can see a mid-cool-off when FED achieves 2.5% once cut and maybe aggressive hikes post that along with some pause - From a Trading Perspective, I would like to wait for a liquidity grab and then execute orders depending on the price action - The inefficiencies currently look a little untapped, once the price taps it, I will start looking for longs - DOL on this still needs to be tapped before you look for long - Shorts on a scalp basis are preferable but don't swing short in a bull market
SKILLING:US30Short
by VKtradesimbalance
Q&A_ Is Dow Jones and global markets ready for a freefall_ 2?Namaste! I have been pessimistic about the bull market since Oct 2022 when Dow Jones fell into bear market for the first-time (i.e. closed below 20% levels from all time highs). S&P500 has been closing below 20% bear market level in June 2022, Sep 2022 and Dec 2022 respectively. (Please read earlier article of the same name which I posted on 7 Nov 2022). There are mainly 3 reasons I strongly think that market have a pending correction of more than 30% from all time highs. 1. Fastest bear market recovery since decades: You know, bull markets and bear markets have some unique behavior which they follow very often. Bulls move price very slowly upwards. but bears move prices very very fast on the downside. What do you think, about this quick recovery of the bear market (year 2020 recovery). This isn't a behavior of the bull. Well this has happened mainly due to following reasons:- A. Lowering interest rates near zero by the US Fed to stimulate the economy, again. B. They deposited dollars directly into the pockets of it's citizens. Money had to go somewhere. So, it (money) went in "spending" (resulting in profits numbers for corporations), "investments" (real estate, various assets and stock markets), etc. "Spending" fueled demand in the economy, creating the inflation (which is highest since decades) in many countries. C. They printed around 33% dollars by issuing government bonds to US Fed (a way of introducing more dollars into the economy). D. Most of this money doesn’t exactly go into circulation within the public and remains electronic. The US government technically owns these assets(stocks, etc)/treasuries and they can always sell them back to the banks when the current prices match those of pre-March 2020. Hence, the money was created as a way of making a buffer that allows the economy to absorb losses while it recovers (source: mediumdotcom). The US government will eventually sell stocks in it's portfolio and other assets to the banks, investors, which will lead to Dow Jones falling. 2. Breakout in the interest rate cycle of US Federal Reserve rates (refer "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate"). Interest rate has been kept "close to zero" since the sub-prime loan mortgage crisis in the year 2008-09. If the dollar in the market is very easily accessible due to very low interest rates (like borrowing from banks to buy a car, home, spend on unnecessary things, etc), it stimulates the economy by increasing demand . It's a good step for the growth of Economy, BUT it creates inflation (sometimes out of control, sooner or later), since everybody is demanding the limited goods or services by borrowing from the banks. Central banks come here, and increase the interest rates. Now, since the interest rate is higher, people will have to cut the spending (mortgage loan payments, credit payments, etc) and immediately stop borrowing more. The inflation is around 4 decades high in US, and couple of decades high in UK, India, Etc. To counter this, central banks will keep increasing interest rates to withdraw "easy dollars" from the market. Concluding, US Fed interest rate above 5.5% may cause the next bear market. 3. Double-top pattern (in the making):- The black horizontal line indicates a 20% (bear market) level. As you can see in the charts, it has created a bull flag pattern. Breakout above the pattern can take the index to 36450 or test the all time highs. The market need some levels (or history) to take the next decision. Market will form a double top pattern before falling. Every trader whether retail or institutional, is a human. So, we need some levels (based on history and facts) to guide us for the future step. That's why Double top or double bottom pattern works so nicely. What can happen next? Well, the market can breakout of the bull flag (& symmetrical triangle) pattern to reach 36450 levels. The person (traders as well as investors) who were in a hindsight because of no visible top, will try to book profits/exit the market near that level. Concluding, Dow Jones is in a medium term uptrend till that level. Disclaimer: The above article is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Please do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing or trading. The sailing in the markets without knowledge and risk apatite could be hazardous for who don't know swimming or without life jackets.
TVC:DJI
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
2
Q&A_ Is Dow Jones and global markets ready for a freefall?Namaste! US Markets substantially affect global market and their indices. There are two main indices which I track most often. DJI (Dow Jones) and SPX (S&P 500). I expect it to be in a downfall in the coming weeks/months. I follow a rule of thumb for a reversal (respecting support or resistance) is that it must close below low of the resistance testing candle within the next 3 candles. My understanding says, "there is a >60% probability of prices moving in the candles closing direction if the prices consolidate". Consolidation can happen near the resistance levels. So, it means there is a <40% probability of reversing (respecting resistance) if the prices consolidate. The logic is very simple. If the sellers were powerful enough, the price will fall quickly, whereas consolidation indicates their unwillingness to sell or more buying pressure than selling at the level. So, the 02 Nov candle closed below the level, hence the selling pressure is strong here meaning more probably price will fall. It is my opinion because I said this happens 60% of the time. This could be that 40% when I am wrong. Disclaimer: The above written article is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Please do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing or trading.
TVC:DJIShort
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
2
US 30 - At Crucial levelThe index has been traveling in a rising channel formation for the last year. This time it reaches the top edge of the channel. If doesn't sustain the above, a downward journey is possible. We just see our risk-reward. Keeping a stop-loss of around 36400 on a closing basis for two days. or according to one's risk management. target seems 35700 or more. The setup fails if sustained above the channel. This is only for learning and sharing purposes, not trading advice in any form. All the best.
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by anandlive
3
3rd Nov ’23 - The gap-up gave the trend change indication NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The levels have not changed from yesterday, the first resistance is at 19226 and the 2nd one is at 19310. I am staying neutral till 19226 is not taken out, seems like it could be even done in the forenoon session.” The gap-up took out my resistance of 19226 and was forced to go long. I was eagerly waiting for the 19310 to get broken so that the bullish momentum was done and cemented. This did not happen as Nifty was out of steam by 11.00. The 14.30 to 14.50 price action looked scary though, assuming the FIIs would have offloaded their selling positions in this window. On the 1hr TF, Nifty has made an odd-looking W pattern, technically its a bullish sign but we need confirmation of the same by taking out the 19310 resistance soon. These bullish price moves could be highly shortlived as well because its just a reaction of market participants to the FED’s announcement yesterday. Just for reference, I have pasted the SPX chart herewith. Could this relief rally be just another lower high in the making? When the global macros are that bad and the earnings are weak, there is every possibility for the bear run to continue. So if you are a bull, enjoy till it lasts.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram