Dxyindex
U.S.Dollar Index possible Elliott wave counts of DXYHello Friends,
Here we have shared possible Elliott wave counts plotted on chart of U.S. Dollar Index - DXY on daily time frame, which clearly indicates that after top of September 2022 we are in corrective phase as per Elliott wave structures, and as per wave counts we can see that we had completed wave ((3)) and now possibly we are in second half of wave ((4)) in which we had completed wave (A)-(B) and currently we are unfolding wave (C), in wave (C) we should have five subdivisions and we had completed wave 1 and now we are in wave 2 which is contra trend, we are assuming again a reversal signals to start again journey towards south direction as a wave 3-4-& 5, to complete wave (C) of bigger degree wave ((4)).
Overall it's looking very good candidate to go short on rise along with invalidation levels of 105.883, because as per wave principles wave 2 will never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
My studies are for educational purpose only, Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing, I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Thanks 💕
Price below mass psychological cloud level (Bearish Bias on daily)
Daily MACD positive, but below resistance and zero line
Weekly MACD negative
Monthly MACD negative
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However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
IS DOLLAR (DXY) ABOUT TO CRASH?? | WEEKLY DOLLAR UPDATE DXY or the Dollar Index, the index to measure the strength of Dollar is considered to be the king of all charts, as most of the financial instruments are very much correlated to the DXY.
Not just forex markets but stocks, cryptos and even commodities are correlated to the Dollar.
If DXY Falls-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD rises. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD falls.
Similarly, If DXY Rises-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD falls. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD rises.
So it becomes very important for any trader either Technical, Or Fundamental to keep a close eye on the DXY.
If DXY is in uptrend, the above mentioned instruments may be in downtrend. Conversely, if DXY is in downtrend, others may be in uptrend.
This is a general observation and not an exact rule to be followed. Exceptions are always there as Financial Markets are impacted by a number of factors.
I will be posting a detailed post about why DXY is so important for any trader, so keep following.
BELOW IS THE ANALYSIS
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Weekly support range= 101.6-100.8
On WEEKLY TIMEFRAME ,price is sitting at support area. Untill and unless the support is not broken, there are chances that price might reverse and bounce from support.
However, if weekly price closes below the support, that can lead to a further long term downtrend in Dollar.
Also, price action is forming a HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. Once, weekly candle closes below the support range, the pattern is completed and activated. That may signify a long term downtrend in Dollar which means long term uptrend in STOCKS, CRYPTOS , PRECIOUS METALS, and some FOREXpairs.
However, further confirmations are also required and just one weekly candle closing below the support is not enough.
DAILY ANALYSIS
The price is making continuous LOWER HIGHS to the support signifying that any bounce from the support is not strong enough and is hence rejected by sellers.
Lower highs into the support area is considered to be Bearish and increases the probability of breakdown of support.
However, since the price is sitting at the confluence of Daily plus Weekly support, a daily close would not be sufficient and a weekly close is required.
On the flip side, we cannot ignore that price is at Support and may bounce from here as well. If price bounces and make a HIGHER HIGH, then chances of breakdown of support will get drastically low and infact a new uptrend may begin in DXY or the Dollar index (but after some further confirmations)
CONCLUSION
1. If Daily plus weekly candle closes below 100.8- BEARISH
2. If Daily candle closes above 102.5, that would mark a Higher High and an uptrend may begin- BULLISH
3. As long as price is trading between 100.8-102.5- SIDEWAYS/NEUTRAL
Let me know in the comments section if you want me to analyse any other financial instrument.
WARNING:-
ALWAYS FOLLOW RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING WHILE TAKING ANY TRADE
Bear flag in XAUUSD (gold)As we can clearly see a bear flag pattern in 2 hr time frame .Here we will get the good trade in the terms of risk and reward in both the directions just after the breakout or Breakdown of the consolidation phase in either direction. I am more confident towards the shorting side as compared to the long side just because of the short term negative sentiments of the market.
Manage proper risk reward/position size
Happy learning...
DXY MACRO ANALYSIS dxy monthly and weekly looks bearish, indicating an end to a 16 months up-trending chart. This could mean a great year for cryptocurrency and /usd pairs ( posted a swing gu chart analysis earlier )
i'll be taking most trades in confluence with my macro bias for dxy hence mostly playing longs on crypto and /usd pairs in forex from now unless my idea (as pictured) gets invalidated.
2023 will be a great year inshallah!
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) at crucial point. What's the next move ?The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The USDX was established by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1973 after the dissolution of the Bretton Woods Agreement. It is now maintained by ICE Data Indices, a subsidiary of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
The index is currently calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of six foreign currencies, which include the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Canadian dollar (CAD), British pound (GBP), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF).
The Dollar index also impacts the inflationary trend in India. Though the Indian Rupee is not included in the index, changes in the dollar's index relative to other currencies have an impact on the Indian economy. An increase in the Dollar index makes the dollar strong and depreciates the value of the INR.
A weakened rupee makes imports costlier and impacts India Inc.’s profitability due to increased production costs. Increased costs lead to inflation, and the prices of goods and services rise, much to the detriment of consumers. Thus, the overall GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is impacted and suffers a slowdown when the dollar strengthens.
* 15 Year cycle is progressing.
* Trading withing rising channel.
* Arc 1 breakout around July, 2014.
* Arc 2 breakout around March, 2022.
* Trading near it's resistance (Resistance 5).
DXYDXY ANALYSIS
It has retracted to its Fibonnacci Level 0.5 (106.17) where it actes as a support and bounced back to its 0.382 (106.84) level which acted as resistance for now.
Further drop is expected to 0.618(105.5) level before another pull up towards 1.618 (112.5 ) LEVELS
THIS IS JUST A VIEW. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE DOING TRADE WITH PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT.
Dollar Index Chart over H4 Chart.US Dollar Index in 20-year peaks
The index extends the optimism seen at the beginning of the week and trade beyond the 108.00 mark for the first time since October 2002, always underpinned by the unabated sell-off in the euro.
The move higher in the dollar comes on the back of diminishing US yields, as recession concerns seem to prompt investors to seek shelter in the safe haven universe for the time being.
Friday’s release of the June Payrolls, however, appear to have mitigated part of those worries and now favour the continuation of the current pace of the Fed’s normalization process.
Speaking about recession fears, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow sees the economy contracting 1.2% in the April-June period (from a 1.9% contraction recorded previously).