IS DOLLAR (DXY) ABOUT TO CRASH?? | WEEKLY DOLLAR UPDATE
DXY or the Dollar Index, the index to measure the strength of Dollar is considered to be the king of all charts, as most of the financial instruments are very much correlated to the DXY.
Not just forex markets but stocks, cryptos and even commodities are correlated to the Dollar.
If DXY Falls-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD rises. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD falls.
Similarly, If DXY Rises-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD falls. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD rises.
So it becomes very important for any trader either Technical, Or Fundamental to keep a close eye on the DXY.
If DXY is in uptrend, the above mentioned instruments may be in downtrend. Conversely, if DXY is in downtrend, others may be in uptrend.
This is a general observation and not an exact rule to be followed. Exceptions are always there as Financial Markets are impacted by a number of factors.
I will be posting a detailed post about why DXY is so important for any trader, so keep following.
BELOW IS THE ANALYSIS
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Weekly support range= 101.6-100.8
On WEEKLY TIMEFRAME ,price is sitting at support area. Untill and unless the support is not broken, there are chances that price might reverse and bounce from support.
However, if weekly price closes below the support, that can lead to a further long term downtrend in Dollar.
Also, price action is forming a HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. Once, weekly candle closes below the support range, the pattern is completed and activated. That may signify a long term downtrend in Dollar which means long term uptrend in STOCKS, CRYPTOS , PRECIOUS METALS, and some FOREXpairs.
However, further confirmations are also required and just one weekly candle closing below the support is not enough.
DAILY ANALYSIS
The price is making continuous LOWER HIGHS to the support signifying that any bounce from the support is not strong enough and is hence rejected by sellers.
Lower highs into the support area is considered to be Bearish and increases the probability of breakdown of support.
However, since the price is sitting at the confluence of Daily plus Weekly support, a daily close would not be sufficient and a weekly close is required.
On the flip side, we cannot ignore that price is at Support and may bounce from here as well. If price bounces and make a HIGHER HIGH, then chances of breakdown of support will get drastically low and infact a new uptrend may begin in DXY or the Dollar index (but after some further confirmations)
CONCLUSION
1. If Daily plus weekly candle closes below 100.8- BEARISH
2. If Daily candle closes above 102.5, that would mark a Higher High and an uptrend may begin- BULLISH
3. As long as price is trading between 100.8-102.5- SIDEWAYS/NEUTRAL
Let me know in the comments section if you want me to analyse any other financial instrument.
WARNING:-
ALWAYS FOLLOW RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING WHILE TAKING ANY TRADE
Not just forex markets but stocks, cryptos and even commodities are correlated to the Dollar.
If DXY Falls-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD rises. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD falls.
Similarly, If DXY Rises-> Cryptos, Stocks, Commodities and some Forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD falls. However, pairs like USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD rises.
So it becomes very important for any trader either Technical, Or Fundamental to keep a close eye on the DXY.
If DXY is in uptrend, the above mentioned instruments may be in downtrend. Conversely, if DXY is in downtrend, others may be in uptrend.
This is a general observation and not an exact rule to be followed. Exceptions are always there as Financial Markets are impacted by a number of factors.
I will be posting a detailed post about why DXY is so important for any trader, so keep following.
BELOW IS THE ANALYSIS
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Weekly support range= 101.6-100.8
On WEEKLY TIMEFRAME ,price is sitting at support area. Untill and unless the support is not broken, there are chances that price might reverse and bounce from support.
However, if weekly price closes below the support, that can lead to a further long term downtrend in Dollar.
Also, price action is forming a HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. Once, weekly candle closes below the support range, the pattern is completed and activated. That may signify a long term downtrend in Dollar which means long term uptrend in STOCKS, CRYPTOS , PRECIOUS METALS, and some FOREXpairs.
However, further confirmations are also required and just one weekly candle closing below the support is not enough.
DAILY ANALYSIS
The price is making continuous LOWER HIGHS to the support signifying that any bounce from the support is not strong enough and is hence rejected by sellers.
Lower highs into the support area is considered to be Bearish and increases the probability of breakdown of support.
However, since the price is sitting at the confluence of Daily plus Weekly support, a daily close would not be sufficient and a weekly close is required.
On the flip side, we cannot ignore that price is at Support and may bounce from here as well. If price bounces and make a HIGHER HIGH, then chances of breakdown of support will get drastically low and infact a new uptrend may begin in DXY or the Dollar index (but after some further confirmations)
CONCLUSION
1. If Daily plus weekly candle closes below 100.8- BEARISH
2. If Daily candle closes above 102.5, that would mark a Higher High and an uptrend may begin- BULLISH
3. As long as price is trading between 100.8-102.5- SIDEWAYS/NEUTRAL
Let me know in the comments section if you want me to analyse any other financial instrument.
WARNING:-
ALWAYS FOLLOW RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING WHILE TAKING ANY TRADE