Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis - Bear Market Since making a panic bottom in March 2020, Indian Markets, along with rest of the globe, have rallied in an impulsive fashion. The entire up move can be plotted as a five wave impulsive structure. The wave counts here also coincide with the prevailing social mood and the level of broader participation which has progressively increased with every successive up move. Markets are nothing but reflection of the social mood in price and the wave analysis captures this behavioral aspect of financial markets. Nifty found a strong resistance at the Fibonacci level of 161.8% inverse retracement of the immediately preceding fall. Generally, this Fibonacci level is where we see major reversal but nonetheless markets overshot this level. Since Feb. 2021, various inter market divergences started developing specifically with respect to other emerging markets, dollar, Gold etc. We at Milestone believe this entire rise from March 2020 bottom is complete and we are now entering a correction that we expect to be at least 50% retracement of the whole rise. We have been warning of an imminent fall in the markets since 4th of August to our students at Milestone. We have witnessed that bear trend in Midcaps and Smallcaps which represent the broad market health but it was just a matter of time before we witnessed the same in the Largecaps and the the benchmark indices. Be prepared for what is coming.
Economic Cycles
Hind Copper AnalysisCovid has induced an long term commodity inflation cycle.
First there was a Huge inflation in Steel Prices, then - Copper, Rubber, now in Textile too(partly due to flood in Indonesia & nearby countries).
Hence, to encash such cycles one should have caught such cycles during the starting. Else may get trapped in highest levels.
Additionally, Copper price can further rise in upcoming next 2-3 months due to fresh lock-downs in many part of China (because of Delta variant spread).
But before investing in such stock, One must be mindful that it is already 5-6x from the march bottom & the cyclical nature of the stock too.
Having understood the risk, One can enter in Hind Copper once the triangle broke & does the retest. or even the safest bet is weekly closing above 170 level.
Disclosure: I would not invest in this at these levels due to high downside risk from here.
(already invested in 39-40 levels. for me its just hold now)
SPARC - Monthly chart BreakoutThis is for education purpose. Invest only after taking advice from your investment manager.
SPARC has broken multi monthly box trap net and in recent breakout in 2021 shows that it has potential to hit 292.
Please do let me know if there are any suggestions or questions. Will be happy to read comments
PDS Multinational educational viewPDSMFL consolidating in parallel range of 900 to 1050, the stock rallied strongly post last consolidation. I assume the stock to be positional pick for medium term, as i am a learner and posted this for educational purpose,please correct and guide me if i have missed anything , so everyone could learn.
A Red Candle will confirm the downtrend for NIFTYAfter one indecisive candle, there are two red candles has shown for NIFTY, one more RED candle comes today, than it will confirm downtrend for NIFTY for next couple of days.
Friday’s candle was also kind of indecisive.
$ is going up
Crude Oil is going up
Gold is going down.
[SHORT TERM] INDIABULLS HOUSING FINANCE 12%, 22%, 38% PROFITUptrend - Fib retracement.
Previous swing retracement level 0.618
Swing high -271
Low - 228
Retracement - 246
Target Achieved - 313 (2.618).
Current Swing retracement level 0.618
High - 313
Retracement - 267
Low - 246
CMP - 280 Entry Level
T1 - 313 - 12%
T2 - 341 - 22% (1.618)
T3 - 387 - 38% (2.618)
SL - 260 Previous swing close.
Note: Previous resistance at 2020 - 360 level.
current count super cycle-3-cycle-1,primary-5 super cycle degree-white
cycle impulse-yellow,
cycle correction-red,
primary impulse-blue
currently we are in super cycle degree wave 3 which is supposed to be most powerful impulse,hence as an individual one should always look to buy this stock be it for intraday,swing or positional trading as higher degree will always have bigger impact on price movement.
In coming days(this month end) if prices correct's and gives negative closing on monthly chart than we can assume that wave 1(cycle) of wave 3 (super cycle 3) has ended and wave 2(cycle) correction can take prices in the range of 89-70.Following wave 3-4-5 target's are as follow's
assuming wave 2(cycle)ending @70.
wave 3(cycle):70-280
wave 4(cycle):280-200
wave 5(cycle):200-460/480.longest among 1,3,5 as generally seen in commodities.
Mind well this are just ideal projection as per text-book guidelines.Actual levels may differ.Whole idea behind this post is to share insight on current wave count on long term price action.
Eth Wyckoff AccumulationEth has just played off a classic Wyckoff accumulation pattern. I had followed this ever since the secondary test, and the spring and LPS has played off since then. Sharing it to reach a wider audience. Thanks to uncomplication on YouTube for introducing me to Wyckoff patterns!
Andhra Sugar - Weekly Breakout. Looking good on WoW Basis#ANDHRSUGAR
Perfect candidate to ride the Soft Commodity and Sugar Rally and hence my conviction here. Numbers listed are weekly considerations
Entered at - 442
Stop Loss - 415
Target 1 – 486 ( Next coming days )
Target 2 – 592 ( 4 to 5 months )
Target 3 - 672 ( 8 to 10 months )
Some of you might not agree with the gap between SL and entry price but I am okay to let this play with my risk appetite for next coming days and next 4 to 5 months
On Daily chart is it now retesting its breakout level. If stock sustains levels of 415 on weekly closing, then its expected to move into predicted trajectory as reflected above
Volume spurt has also been noticed on WoW basis for last 4 weeks. Good sign of buyer interest in order to move towards predicted trajectory
Disclaimer -
- The view expressed here are my personal views. I am publishing this for my own records and what I see on charts.
- If you're referring to this, please consider this ONLY FOR educational & research purposes.
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same. DO NOT consider this as an investment suggestion.
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial advisor before investing.
TIA!