Get started

Economic Cycles

Hindalco-Neo wave count Current pattern: WXY double correction Both correction have taken Bow-Tie diametric form(7 leg pattern,Expansion in first 3 leg and compression in last 3 leg). Right now it seems like second correction is done and current fall can be wave X or wave 1(star of new impulse on the downside) Shown horizontal dashed lines are retracement(23,38,50,62) levels of second correction. Notice through out this up move price has taken support of lower channel which it seems like will be broken in current fall.If price goes below 475 and gives closing below it in next 2 day's it will give 2 stage confirmation of TL breach and faster retracement of previous swing meaning bigger move on the downside can come in near future. Personally i feel metals are way to over stretched on the upside and it's time for them to move down.I have posted charts of Sail and have shared link of my analysis on tata steel on this platform and both charts are showing sign of weakness. Hindalco being an aluminium and copper producing company has shown divergence from steel producing stock in metal sector up until now,but since last three days it has aligned itself with the broader markets and on the charts it seems like completion of double correction as well. We can also see that price is following 18-days cycle and price has reversed around cycle low zone on 11-12 occasion.And the next cycle low period is coming on 27-10-21,hence bounce can be seen in price around that day and one should look to exit longs or build short position around that time. Trade setup criteria 1)Prices needs to close below 475 in next 2 day's. 2)If 1st criteria is meet,then one should look to short the stock on bounce till 495-500(broken channel then act as Resistance). 3)If We should get a reversal candle in the form of shooting star,bearish pearcing,bearish engulfing around channel levels then one can initiate short trade on the next day when the low's of the reversal candle get's taken out. stop-loss would be 530 on the upside and expected targets would be 475-425-389-360 on the downside.Time frame for this trade would be minimum 1 month. DISCLAIMER:There is no guarantee of profits or no exceptions from losses. The study provided is solely the personal views of my research. You are advised to rely on your judgment while investing/Trading decisions. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Investment is subject to market risks. Seek help of your financial advisors before investing/trading. I may or may not trade this analysis
NSE:HINDALCOShort
by UNDERDOG-29
8
Touchwood Entertainment BreakoutAs we can see in the chart, stock goes into the consolidation or creates flag and whenever it comes near 44 SMA, there is a breakout. After the fall of 47% we can see that stock is creating new swing high. We can consider each breakout as small flag and pole or look at the bigger picture and see that stock is moving in between 2 parallel lines which are expanding, which means breakout can be even bigger this time. So one can go for swing trade with the SL below 44 SMA and ASA stock touches or comes near upper line you can book profit.
NSE:TOUCHWOODLong
by Vinay227
impulse wave count logic of NEO waveReason for starting wave count from the point shown here is,in the past price movement(from covid low's) no prior swing high is retraced faster then the fall from that high took to form. Rules and Reason for impulse count 1)wave 2 should take more time then wave 1 to form,here this rule is followed 2)0-2 trend line should not be touched by wave 1 price movement,here this rule is followed 3)wave 3 should not be shortest,here this rule is followed 4)One of the 1,3 or 5 should be extended,here wave 3 has extended by atleast 161.8% of wave 1 in both the degree's,here this rule is followed 5)wave 4 should not enter wave 2 price zone,here this rule is followed in intermediate counts. 6)wave 4 should take more time then wave 2,here this rule is followed in intermediate count. 7)Atleast one alteration should be there between wave 2 and wave 4,here this rule is followed as Alteration is seen between primary 2 and 4 in terms of pattern, price and time. 8)0-2 channel should not have more then 4 touch-point,here this rule is followed after which it was breached. seems like sail has completed primary impulse wave 3 whose intermediate 5 was truncated and currently forming an complex correction(wxy) or a triangle pattern which was triggered after 2 stage confirmation on the breach 0-2 trend-line and intermediate wave 4 lows in lesser time then intermediate 5 took to form.As of now it seems like wave w or wave A in the form of regular flat has been done and currently wave x or wave B is in the making.On the downside wave 4 retraces generally 38.2 % wave 3 which is coming @ 115 which was achieved by price in current fall,but since then bounce has not been sharp or impulsive in nature indicating wave x or wave B is in making.As per the rule wave 4 is longer then wave 3 and primary wave 3 took 88 candles to complete hence going by that logic current fall or side ways movement can atleast continue till 20th december post which 31 days cycle low is expected @ 29th december. On the downside support is coming at following levels Primary wave 3 38.22% retracement @ 115.40 Primary wave 3 50.00% retracement @ 106.20 Primary wave 3 61.80% retracement @ 97.00 Invalidation of this count is @ 81 level where if price goes then wave 4 will be entering wave 2 territory. Upside seems limited as of now but accumulation can be done if price comes @ above mentioned levels for investment purpose as on the basis of this count,as wave 5 is yet to unfold and in commodities wave 5 is assumed to be longest of 1,3,5. will it make a wxy or a triangle only time will tell but short term trader should not look for bigger up side move looking at the current price structure until december 20th,2021. This labelling is done by following NEO wave rules,in the past i have posted wave counts on sail through elliot wave rules.Rules of impulse labelling are different in both theories and hence the counts are also different.Neo wave also in-corporates time element in labelling waves which helps in timing entries and exits. Here i have also incorporated time cycle.In the shown chart 31-day cycle is working quite well since covid low's(I cant show entire chart from covid low's as it wud very untidy) which help's in identifying important low points,meaning around cycle end day's important low is supposed to be formed. Let me know if you find this post informative and if i have missed any rules while labelling.
NSE:SAILEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
8
BPCL Wait And Watch ?? Look for Low risk, High reward, and High Probability setups- Things to Remember while Trading with the Trend 1. Know what the trend is. 2. The best trades are made in the direction of the trend. 3. Assume that the main trendline or moving average will hold. 4. The longer the moving average is, the better it defines the trend. 5. Wait for the pullback. 6. Don’t chase the market. 7. Don’t fight the market. 8. Even in the strongest trends there should be some retracement. 9. The closer the market is to the trendline, the better the risk/reward ratio is. 10. Use ADX to determine the strength of the trend. 11. Higher the level of ADX , the stronger the trend, below 20 consider the market to be choppy 12. Hold trades longer in a strong trend. 13. Wait for confirmation of a trendline breaking before reversing position. 14. Know where the Support levels are. 15. Place stops outside the Support levels. Thank You..
NSE:BPCLLong
by Rvkachhadiya
Winter Is ComingLet me start with small story. In the town, new cake shop opened and he kept the price as Rs. 20 / cake. Now, everyone realised that the price is too cheap, so on a daily basis he received orders of more than 200 cakes, whereas his production capacity was just 100. After few days, he increased price to Rs.30, still he used to receive order of more than 150 cakes every day. Now, after few days he again increased price to Rs. 45 / cake. Now, everyone started realizing that it is not cheap anymore and demand dropped. He started receiving order of 70/80 cakes every day. So, he finally changed price to Rs. 40 / cake, at which point he started receiving order as per his production capacity. Now, every year he used to increase price by Rs. 1 to adjust the inflation cost, which everyone in the town felt is fair enough. This continued for 8-10 years. After sometime he went into renovation for few months. So, everyone started missing his cakes. When he opened shop, again, there was huge demand and again increase in the price and finally a correction. This is what happens in share market, as we can see in the chart, whenever, market is trading near upper band for too long. A big correction comes until such time the price of the shares become fair. The speed at which it goes up is correlated with the speed at which it comes down. In the last 1.5 years, market has already gone up ~131% and the trajectory at which it is trading and the speed at which it is going up, we will reach 50k by Nov 2026. Now, 50k is the target provided by our so called economic pundits by 2030 and we all know even though economy is booming and India will soon become 5Trillion dollar economy, we are not going to touch 50k by 2026. Now, why we are seeing such surge in the prices and change in trajectory as compared to past. Main Reason Lockdown - Because of lockdown employees started working from home and naturally, they started getting free time and at the luxury of working from home and without any IT supervision they started learning and investing. Because many businesses were shut, shops were closed and market started coming up so with the little amount people had saved, they started investing in share market. Because of increase in gold price – when there is instability in economy people start buying gold but when gold reached all time high of 56k and market was giving good returns, everyone started selling gold and that investment again shifted to share market. What’s next? Since, market is trading near upper band (Red line) for too long. I believe ASA market will touch point, where this black and red line will interact, we will see correction of at least 15-20 % until it touches green line and starts trading in band. In this correction, the stocks which have rallied most i.e. small and midcap will see almost 40 to 50% correction. Now, in this rally market has already given free lunch, dinner and breakfast to everyone. Now, if you don’t want to pay for this free food already consumed. Stay away from the stocks which are trading at all time high or have given 200-400% returns in the last year. Don't run behind these multibagger stocks. Switch to the old method of adding stocks in your portfolio, which are fundamentally good and stable. Protect the money that you have earned or else you will end up paying more.
NSE:NIFTY
by Vinay227
2
Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis - Bear Market Since making a panic bottom in March 2020, Indian Markets, along with rest of the globe, have rallied in an impulsive fashion. The entire up move can be plotted as a five wave impulsive structure. The wave counts here also coincide with the prevailing social mood and the level of broader participation which has progressively increased with every successive up move. Markets are nothing but reflection of the social mood in price and the wave analysis captures this behavioral aspect of financial markets. Nifty found a strong resistance at the Fibonacci level of 161.8% inverse retracement of the immediately preceding fall. Generally, this Fibonacci level is where we see major reversal but nonetheless markets overshot this level. Since Feb. 2021, various inter market divergences started developing specifically with respect to other emerging markets, dollar, Gold etc. We at Milestone believe this entire rise from March 2020 bottom is complete and we are now entering a correction that we expect to be at least 50% retracement of the whole rise. We have been warning of an imminent fall in the markets since 4th of August to our students at Milestone. We have witnessed that bear trend in Midcaps and Smallcaps which represent the broad market health but it was just a matter of time before we witnessed the same in the Largecaps and the the benchmark indices. Be prepared for what is coming.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by MilestoneCapital
Hind Copper AnalysisCovid has induced an long term commodity inflation cycle. First there was a Huge inflation in Steel Prices, then - Copper, Rubber, now in Textile too(partly due to flood in Indonesia & nearby countries). Hence, to encash such cycles one should have caught such cycles during the starting. Else may get trapped in highest levels. Additionally, Copper price can further rise in upcoming next 2-3 months due to fresh lock-downs in many part of China (because of Delta variant spread). But before investing in such stock, One must be mindful that it is already 5-6x from the march bottom & the cyclical nature of the stock too. Having understood the risk, One can enter in Hind Copper once the triangle broke & does the retest. or even the safest bet is weekly closing above 170 level. Disclosure: I would not invest in this at these levels due to high downside risk from here. (already invested in 39-40 levels. for me its just hold now)
NSE:HINDCOPPER
by IIMA_Brat