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Economic Cycles

BANK NIFTY:TIME CYCLE ANALYSISCYCLE PRINCIPLES: 1. The Principle of Commonality – Markets(Index) and security price(stocks) movements have many elements in common. In particular they tend to have common high and low points that coincide with cycles. 2. The Principle of Cyclicality – Price movements correspond to a combination of waves that exhibit cyclic characteristics. 3. The Principle of Summation – Cycle waves of different degrees combine to affect price movement and do so by adding the waves together. 4. The Principle of Harmonicity – Cycle waves of different degrees are harmonized and are related by a small integer value.comaan harmoics are 2nd and 3rd or 1/2 and 1/3. 5. The Principle of Synchronicity – Cycle waves are phased and synchronized at price troughs. 6. The Principle of Proportionality – Waves in price movement have amplitude that is proportional to their wavelength. 7. The Principle of Nominality – A specific, nominal collection of harmonically related waves is common to all price movements. 8. The Principle of Variation – Variation in harmonicity, synchronicity, proportionality and nominality (previous 4 principles) is expected. FOLLOWING CYCLES ARE SHOWN HERE: Cycle with second harmonic has given mid cycle dip where as cycle with 3rd harmonic has given higher peak there by confirming presence of cycle through sine wave like price strucutre. 270 DAYS:WHITE(WORKING IN 3RD HARMONIC,meaning it is divided in 3 equal length cycle of 90 days each) 90 DAYS:PINK(WORKING IN 2ND HARMONIC,meaning it is divided in 2 equal length cycle of 45 days each) 45 DAYS:GREEN(WORKING IN 3RD HARMONIC,meaning it is divided in 2 equal length cycle of 15 days each) 15 DAYS:YELLOW(WORKING IN 2ND HARMONIC,NOT SHOWN HERE) Above mentioned things represents first 5 Principle of cycle theory,as we can see price movement having cyclic characteristics and higher degree cycle being divided in it's 2nd or 3rd harmonics,there by forming lows/troughs together.If we do summation of lower degree cycles then we get higher degree cycle which is representing principle of summation. OBSERVATIONS: #CURRENT PHASE OF CYCLE: 270 DAYS:BEARISH 90 DAYS:BEARISH 45 DAYS:BULLISH 15 DAYS:BULLISH #Briefings of 270 DAYS CYCLE: In the current 270 days cycle with 3rd harmonic,we have already seen 3/4th cycle high around 39360,there by suggesting us that 270 days cycle has completely turned bearish #Briefings of 90 DAYS CYCLE: Rise from 8th march in current 90 days cycle can be attributed 90 day cycle's 2nd harmonic cycle working in bullish phase,post mid-cycle dip @32155.Chances of this current rise to cross highest high of current 90 day cycle(39424) is very low as current 90 day cycle itself has turned negative or bearish #Briefings of 45 DAYS CYCLE: As it is working in it's 3rd harmonic meaning current 45 day cycle will have three 15 day's cycle or will be divided in three 15 days cycle.Currently 1st 15 day cycle is going on and it has reached it's halfway point meaning going ahead we can see one dip around 28-30 th march which will complete first 15 day cycle,from there we can again see prices pushing higher in order to make 45 day's mid-cycle high,this high can be higher then high registered in first 15 day cycle and around 22 april second 15 day cycle will end meaning a dip in price around 20-22 nd april,this will be followed by last 15 day cycle rise post where in we will see price unable to cross high posted in second 15 day cycle there by turning every cycle(15,45,90,270) negative. 13th May is the day when entire current 270 day cycle is ending meaning in 2nd-3rd week of may we can see bank nifty forming important low. Analysis: Scenario-1:Bearish/Road-blocks ahead for prices to move higher from current levels 1)FLD(136 days) @ 36436. 2)61.8% retracement from high to low of previous 45 day cycle @ 36647. 3)Ichimoku cloud @ 36428. 4)Falling OI in futures contract from last 6 days. 5)Higher degree cycle(270 and 90) has already turned negative indicating lower probability of making new high till 13th may. 6)We have seen prices breaching previous 90 day cycle low in current 90 day cycle again indicating selling pressure. Personal view: As bigger cycle has turned negative buying from current levels should be avoided and long positions should be protected with stop-loss as per once risk appetite.I feel post 12th April(2nd ,15 day cycle peak zone starts of current 45 day cycle)we can see decent selling pressure in Bank nifty as post 12th April all the major cycle's will turn negative. Disclaimer:Analysis/views shown here are only for educational purpose.Trading position should not be taken on its basis.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
25
NIFTY:TIME CYCLE INVERSIONConcept of Time Cycle: #A cycle is something that influences the price movement of a financial market to move up towards a peak, and then to move down towards a trough (or low point). #It repeats that action on a fairly regular basis or exist in continuous time. #There are multiple cycles which influence the price movement of any financial market.The multiple cycles that influence price movements combine in a very particular way. #This multiple cycle low's are synchronized as low are made on the back of "fear/panic" and psychologically human tends to experience fear in mass hence different cycle lows are concentrated where as high's of different cycles are scattered as high's are driven by "GREED" which is rather more subjective. #J.M.HURST inventor of cycle theory has given a nominal model which states comman cycle's that are found in financial markets. #Due to multiple cycle going on at the same time,we can see variation in it's wave length(Cycle period). Observation over here: Since January 2021 we are seeing Nifty following 20-days time cycle there by making important pivot low's near vertical line showing cycle period day on most of the occasions till January 2022. Since January 2022 we are seeing inversion happening in the time cycle meaning instead of catching or making important pivot low near cycle period day we are seeing market making important pivot high post which we have seen significant market fall on last 2 occasion of cycle period day. Next cycle period day is on 17/03/2022.Hence going by this logic we can expect current up move to continue till 17/03/2022 post which we can see fall. Although this time in the current up move we have seen price breaking upper channel rasistance and has also managed to close above it and also above its previous pivot closing high of 16793(16800) in today's trading session,which in itself is bullish sign suggesting next target of 17050-80 on the upside,however from here risk reward is not favorable for taking long trade. Although channel rasistance is broken,from last 2 cycle we are seeing Nifty making pivot high's post which we have seen nifty falling and continuing on this logic post 17/03/2022 we can see fall in Nifty till at least previous pivot low of 15670 in order to confirm double bottom. Trade Setup 1)Need reversal candle near cycle period,price being at gap(17050-80) or previous price action zone(17340-400). 2)Next day market should trade below reversal candle low for atleast first hour in order to initiate trade. Stop-loss should be reversal candle high for short trade and target would be 15670. Disclaimer:This are just my views on the index,no position should be squared off or initiated on its basis.Posting this for my future reference.
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NSE:NIFTYEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
34
Bank NIfty:15 days time cycleBank nifty is following 15 days time cycle since Nov.2020, meaning every 15-16 days bank nifty forms important pivot low post which we can see rally. Yesterday we had 15 day cycle low day,post which we are seeing rally meaning cycle is still active and has capture past 3 lows perfeactly. Going ahead we can see this rally to continue and for short term 32155 can act as important pivot support for bulls.As we also have morning star pattern formation on daily chart. Focus should be to buy on dip's(around 33200-300) with a stop-loss of 32155 on the lower side and target can be 35500-35600. Disclaimer:This are just my views posting for my future reference.No trades should be taken on its basis.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by UNDERDOG-29
My reasons and Your reasons behind losses while trading.Why do people take losses in trading? The reasons or mistakes behind a trader make losses. I suggest you these reasons should not be repeated. If you might have also come to cross from this reason and got losses, you can type in comment number of specific reason what you have faced. In case, you also have another reason except in this post, please or kindly specify it in comment section . We will discuss it for a solution. 1). Stop following the right/perfect "trade-setup strategy" even if you are earning from it. For instance, you're going good in "breakout setup" but not following consistently, change suddenly/started to follow another pattern the setup. 2). Not enough Technical Knowledge. New traders just learn from YouTube or another resource about basic charting reading & indicators, such as MACD, chart pattern, trendline, etc. directly jump in practical trading with using full margin and later convert to loss. They believe trading is very easy but it's theoretically. In the practical, you need experience & practice a lot to earn. 3). Believing blindly on Other's Tips. A lot of traders pay high prices for tips/research/analysis and follow them blindly without applying margin management rules. As a result, they wipe out. I am not saying to ignore/avoid other research or analysis but you should apply margin management rules and also do paper trading on their research. 4). Try to cover loss, Expecting huge profit. When traders take a loss, they think to recover the loss by taking entry huge quantities to recover from little pips/points and fall into a huge loss. After taking a position with the perfect trade-setup, some traders expect more profit than the per-defined target. Later, they convert into loss because of changing setup. 5). You take risks that you can't afford to lose. Taking Unlimited Risk means, neither protective stop nor mental stop. Some people keep a 1:1 stop-loss and target ratio. Don't do this: "Holding losers trades while selling winners trades". 6). Lack of Emotion Control. Not following your own per-defined setup, for example, changing stop-loss or not exiting and expecting to recover, sometimes not booking profit and expecting more profit and finally convert into a loss. In more clear words, change your set-up frequently while real-time trading. Don't believe in Exit or Marry with Beliefs/Hopes(Hope is not a strategy). Believe in recover loss without any specific reasons and finally had to take a huge loss. I have seen in many new traders, they let Loose Grow and take a small profit. Avoid the words ‘hope”, “wish” or ‘feel’ when talking about a trade-setup. Believing that price cannot move higher/lower.
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NSE:BAJAJFINSVEducation
by Trade-Technique
121
TATASTEEL:Morning star formationSeems like TATASTEEL might be ending flat correction which started from 1530 levels taking price all the way down till 1060.A bounce in the form of wave X can give good swing trade. Reason behind end of current flat correction. 1)Price reaching near 123% wave A extention in wave C fall 2)Price reaching 100% equality wave 1 target in wave 5 of wave C. 3)Price reaching wave 4 low's of higher degree(1050) 4)Morning star formation on daily chart. 5)Positive Divergence between wave 3 and wave 5 low's. 6)22 day cycle period low is due on 31st jan,indicating time will be favouring bulls. As we can clearly see tatasteel forming an important pivot low at 1061,one can initiate long at CMP of 1110 with 1060 as initial stop-loss for an eventual target of 1240 giving us a risk reward of 1:2. Disclaimer:THis are just my views on the stock,no position should be build or exited on its basis.posting this just for my future reference.
NSE:TATASTEELLong
by UNDERDOG-29
17
Bank Nifty:Diametric last leg ending soonAs it turned out price took form of diametric pattern in wave d(yellow),currently it seems like we are in wave g(green) of diametric pattern target of which is coming at 37650.Again we are nearing cycle low zone at 12.45 PM today.One should look to buy index if we get reversal candle which closes above previous candles high from now onwards,although it would be aggressive trade but worth while to take risk as time will be favoring bulls post 12.45.Ideally pattern completion would be above 38200. For agrressive trader: Look for a reversal candle which closes above previous candle high,enter long once we get close above previous candles high and keep stop-loss of the previous candle low for a target of 38200 and 38700. For safe trader: Wait for price to cross 38200,any 30 min candle closing above 38200 would confirm pattern completion.Initiate long then with a stop-loss of pivot low that we will make(i am assuming 37650) for the target of 38750.Although risk rewards changes significantly if we wait for confirmation. Disclaimer:No trades should be taken on the basis of this analysis,posting this just for my future reference.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by UNDERDOG-29
Bank Nifty:Elliot wave + Time cycle.Attaching 30 mins chart of Bank Nifty. It seems like Bank nifty is following 21 candles cycle on 30 minutes chart as it has captured most of the low's formed since 30-12-2021 (12:15 P.M. on wards).As per this cycle next low is due at 1.45 P.M. today. On wave front,i think it is either making a diametric pattern or an triangle,as wave B took less time then wave A in the labels shown from 25-01-2022 9:15 A.M. on wards. Scenario-1)Diametric As per diametric patterns guidelines, wave E target is coming at 39350.(Few days back we also had a algo trade in bank nifty printing 39300 high).A rejection at 39300-350 level along with faster retracement of previous swing low would validate end of wave E of diametric pattern. Scenario-2)Triangle As per triangle pattern,wave E could be the last raising move post which we can see decent down move,which can take prices again back to 38500 levels and even beyond.As 38840 is a previous price action zone acting as rasistance ,for entire rise to be an triangle wave E can end at around same levels(so far we have done high of 38800 and have pulled back)but the internal structure is not yet complete hence one more push towards 38800 cant be ruled out.A rejection again at 38800 along with faster retracement of previous swing low level would validate triangle scenario. Personally i am preferring scenario 1,as today on the back of event prices can show unexpected moves.Hence i would wait short trade setup at or around 39350 level for riding wave F of diametric pattern target for which is coming at 38500 Disclaimer:This are just my views,no position should be build or exited on its basis.Posting this just for my future reference.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by UNDERDOG-29
Market Cycles – Market Phases and Different TypesTypes of Market Phases There are 4 clear market phases, and all markets go through these phases in a repeated way: All markets go through 4 clear phases in a repeated way: 1.Accumulation Phase This phase occurs after the market has bottomed and early adopters begin to buy, figuring the worst is over. At this phase, valuations are very attractive, and general market sentiment is still bearish. Overall market sentiment begins to switch from negative to neutral. The end of an accumulation phase is typically marked by a breakout where trade sentiment moves towards neutral and traders start sniffing an opportunity. 2. Mark up Phase The market has been stable for a while and is beginning to move higher. The early majority are getting on the bandwagon. Traders, seeing the market is putting in higher lows and higher highs, recognize market direction and sentiment have changed. Markup phase begins with a breakout and tends to continue till there is a major pullback. Markets start trending upwards and more investors jump on the bandwagon as greed and the fear of losing out take over. 3. Distribution Phase This part of the cycle is identified by a period in which the bullish sentiment of the previous phase turns into a mixed sentiment. Prices can often stay locked in a trading range that can last a few weeks or even months. The distribution phase is a very emotional time for the markets, as investors are gripped by periods of complete fear interspersed with hope and even greed as the market may at times appear to be taking off again. This phase is marred with consolidations, breakouts and pullbacks at small scales, identifying trends become difficult. 4. Mark-down Phase The fourth and final phase in the cycle is the most painful for those who still hold positions. Many hang on because their investment has fallen below what they paid for it refusing to let go in the vain hope of being rescued. Timing the market correctly is the first step to making profits with TA. You would want to build a system that helps identify an entry point when the market is in the ‘mark up’ phase. The system should then also help you also identify when to exit once the asset is moving from the distribution to the ‘mark down’ phase.
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NSE:NIFTYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn7241612
60