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Economic Cycles

Nifty wave counts from 15183This is one of the rare case where a 3 wave move up has a C wave extension greater than the regular 1.382/1.618. In super-extended moves, we have seen C Waves extend to 2.0 and even 2.618 of wave A. What determines the future move is the speed of reversal post completion of Wave C/3. Another supporting evidence for it being a wave C and not wave 3 is that the initial moves prior to wave C was a clean Wave A i.e. a 3 wave move contained withing parallel lines, whose subwaves tended to equality. A bull case could be made that - no it was a 1-2-i-ii and not an a-b-c within Wave A, but generally in 1-2-i-ii, the lower degree 1 is shorter than the length of the higher degree 1. Here, both waves tended to equality. Hence an argument for it being a wave A is stronger. Now we will have to see how price behaves at prior wave 4s of lower degree. Immediate supports are offered in the range of 17150-17450, which is the range of the Wave 4 of lower degree. A corrective rise from there will confirm that we are going further lower. Will revisit this developing idea once we are at 17150-200. -ansible/entropy
NSEIX:NIFTY1!Short
by no_aha
Important SUPPORT is still securedAs we analysed yesterday that the opening is very important and any flat to positive openeing could show strong upmove and we did saw that today but that upmove couldn’t sustain any longer and fell in the second half but still closed above our given support! this shows the same scenario as yesterday and same setup can be implied but continuous hitting on support is making rhe level weaker and hence as soon as the level is broken we can go short as this level will later act as resistance and one sided fall of 200 points can be seen in nifty
NSE:NIFTY
by Wealthcam
Bank Nifty:Bow Tie Diametric pattern.End of wave E.Go short.Rise in Bank nifty seems to have taken a form of Bow-Tie diametric pattern.We have seen completion of wave A,B,C,D,E.Currently it seems like we are in the middle of wave F.Wave F equality target of wave B is coming at 34608.Also it seems like wave F internally is forming a flat corrective pattern of which wave A and wave B is done and today after price retracing wave A by 80% (at 35958) wave C has commenced.Internally wave C target of 100% and 161% extention of wave A is coming at 35163 and 34672 respectively in this flat correction. Bank nifty 15 day cycle has also passed it's 2/3rd topping time zone and is ending on 6th june,along with this we also had a top formed on no moon which is yet not taken out. One can go short with a stop-loss of 36100 at cmp of 35550 for a target of 34700. Disclaimer:This are just my view on index.Do not trade solely on its basis.Posting this just for my future reference.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by UNDERDOG-29
2
CNX PSUBANK:Time Cycle analysis and possible trade setuppsu bank index is following 55 days cycle meaning every 55 day we get a pivot low.so far we havent seen a lower low on psu bank index as compare to bank nifty or nifty.current 55 day cycle is ending on 31st may meaning around may end we can expect psu bank index to form important pivot low. adding moon phases to this cycle we can get to know the harmonic of the 55 day cycle.here it seems like post every full moon we are seeing either a significant rally or a consolidation meaning prior trend either reverses or takes a pause after a full moon.we have a full moon on 16th may indicating current selling momentum can decrease and we can see some sort of consolidation or a small rally. we are also seeing index at previous support(shown in blue line),although breached on 12th may,we haven't seen a follow through meaning we havent seen a lower low in yesterdays trading session.now if on monday 16th may,we get a close above friday's high then we can assume a temporary bottom has been formed and selling would halt. on a larger scale it seems like psubank index is forming head and shoulder top pattern neckline of which is breached at 2430. scenario-1: for long trade as price has breached support of 2420-30 with most of the momentum indicators showing over sold reading and monday being a full moon day,i am expecting at least current selling momentum/intensity to decrease and form a short term base(4-5 days) hence ideally one should go long if we get a close above fridays high(2500) with fridays low as initial stop-loss(2385),if trade works in favour then one should trail stop-loss as per one's risk apetite every day,as 55 day cycle is still in sell mode,i am not expecting major bottom to form before 31st may or rather a bottom formed around 31st may would be more significant. scenario-2: for short trade if stop-loss of scenario 1 is triggered then one should go short aggressively.i will update entry exit levels for short trade. this index is not tradeble but this analysis can be used as a reference for trading in psu banking stocks.check the chart's of psubank which resembles index's price movement for trading. in recent times due to intermediate trend being down,i have observed bullish trade setup's are not working hence one can even avoid taking long trade inspite of trade setup criteria being fulfilled by price just to avoid trading against the trend. trade setup logic 1)use of reversal candle 2)price action support 3)moon phase 4)time cycle 5)pivot low disclaimer:analysis shown here is just for educational purpose and for my future reference.trade should not be taken solely on its basis.
NSE:CNXPSUBANK
by UNDERDOG-29
1
BANK NIFTY:TIME CYCLE ANALYSISCYCLE PRINCIPLES: 1. The Principle of Commonality – Markets(Index) and security price(stocks) movements have many elements in common. In particular they tend to have common high and low points that coincide with cycles. 2. The Principle of Cyclicality – Price movements correspond to a combination of waves that exhibit cyclic characteristics. 3. The Principle of Summation – Cycle waves of different degrees combine to affect price movement and do so by adding the waves together. 4. The Principle of Harmonicity – Cycle waves of different degrees are harmonized and are related by a small integer value.comaan harmoics are 2nd and 3rd or 1/2 and 1/3. 5. The Principle of Synchronicity – Cycle waves are phased and synchronized at price troughs. 6. The Principle of Proportionality – Waves in price movement have amplitude that is proportional to their wavelength. 7. The Principle of Nominality – A specific, nominal collection of harmonically related waves is common to all price movements. 8. The Principle of Variation – Variation in harmonicity, synchronicity, proportionality and nominality (previous 4 principles) is expected. FOLLOWING CYCLES ARE SHOWN HERE: Cycle with second harmonic has given mid cycle dip where as cycle with 3rd harmonic has given higher peak there by confirming presence of cycle through sine wave like price strucutre. 270 DAYS:WHITE(WORKING IN 3RD HARMONIC,meaning it is divided in 3 equal length cycle of 90 days each) 90 DAYS:PINK(WORKING IN 2ND HARMONIC,meaning it is divided in 2 equal length cycle of 45 days each) 45 DAYS:GREEN(WORKING IN 3RD HARMONIC,meaning it is divided in 2 equal length cycle of 15 days each) 15 DAYS:YELLOW(WORKING IN 2ND HARMONIC,NOT SHOWN HERE) Above mentioned things represents first 5 Principle of cycle theory,as we can see price movement having cyclic characteristics and higher degree cycle being divided in it's 2nd or 3rd harmonics,there by forming lows/troughs together.If we do summation of lower degree cycles then we get higher degree cycle which is representing principle of summation. OBSERVATIONS: #CURRENT PHASE OF CYCLE: 270 DAYS:BEARISH 90 DAYS:BEARISH 45 DAYS:BULLISH 15 DAYS:BULLISH #Briefings of 270 DAYS CYCLE: In the current 270 days cycle with 3rd harmonic,we have already seen 3/4th cycle high around 39360,there by suggesting us that 270 days cycle has completely turned bearish #Briefings of 90 DAYS CYCLE: Rise from 8th march in current 90 days cycle can be attributed 90 day cycle's 2nd harmonic cycle working in bullish phase,post mid-cycle dip @32155.Chances of this current rise to cross highest high of current 90 day cycle(39424) is very low as current 90 day cycle itself has turned negative or bearish #Briefings of 45 DAYS CYCLE: As it is working in it's 3rd harmonic meaning current 45 day cycle will have three 15 day's cycle or will be divided in three 15 days cycle.Currently 1st 15 day cycle is going on and it has reached it's halfway point meaning going ahead we can see one dip around 28-30 th march which will complete first 15 day cycle,from there we can again see prices pushing higher in order to make 45 day's mid-cycle high,this high can be higher then high registered in first 15 day cycle and around 22 april second 15 day cycle will end meaning a dip in price around 20-22 nd april,this will be followed by last 15 day cycle rise post where in we will see price unable to cross high posted in second 15 day cycle there by turning every cycle(15,45,90,270) negative. 13th May is the day when entire current 270 day cycle is ending meaning in 2nd-3rd week of may we can see bank nifty forming important low. Analysis: Scenario-1:Bearish/Road-blocks ahead for prices to move higher from current levels 1)FLD(136 days) @ 36436. 2)61.8% retracement from high to low of previous 45 day cycle @ 36647. 3)Ichimoku cloud @ 36428. 4)Falling OI in futures contract from last 6 days. 5)Higher degree cycle(270 and 90) has already turned negative indicating lower probability of making new high till 13th may. 6)We have seen prices breaching previous 90 day cycle low in current 90 day cycle again indicating selling pressure. Personal view: As bigger cycle has turned negative buying from current levels should be avoided and long positions should be protected with stop-loss as per once risk appetite.I feel post 12th April(2nd ,15 day cycle peak zone starts of current 45 day cycle)we can see decent selling pressure in Bank nifty as post 12th April all the major cycle's will turn negative. Disclaimer:Analysis/views shown here are only for educational purpose.Trading position should not be taken on its basis.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
25
NIFTY:TIME CYCLE INVERSIONConcept of Time Cycle: #A cycle is something that influences the price movement of a financial market to move up towards a peak, and then to move down towards a trough (or low point). #It repeats that action on a fairly regular basis or exist in continuous time. #There are multiple cycles which influence the price movement of any financial market.The multiple cycles that influence price movements combine in a very particular way. #This multiple cycle low's are synchronized as low are made on the back of "fear/panic" and psychologically human tends to experience fear in mass hence different cycle lows are concentrated where as high's of different cycles are scattered as high's are driven by "GREED" which is rather more subjective. #J.M.HURST inventor of cycle theory has given a nominal model which states comman cycle's that are found in financial markets. #Due to multiple cycle going on at the same time,we can see variation in it's wave length(Cycle period). Observation over here: Since January 2021 we are seeing Nifty following 20-days time cycle there by making important pivot low's near vertical line showing cycle period day on most of the occasions till January 2022. Since January 2022 we are seeing inversion happening in the time cycle meaning instead of catching or making important pivot low near cycle period day we are seeing market making important pivot high post which we have seen significant market fall on last 2 occasion of cycle period day. Next cycle period day is on 17/03/2022.Hence going by this logic we can expect current up move to continue till 17/03/2022 post which we can see fall. Although this time in the current up move we have seen price breaking upper channel rasistance and has also managed to close above it and also above its previous pivot closing high of 16793(16800) in today's trading session,which in itself is bullish sign suggesting next target of 17050-80 on the upside,however from here risk reward is not favorable for taking long trade. Although channel rasistance is broken,from last 2 cycle we are seeing Nifty making pivot high's post which we have seen nifty falling and continuing on this logic post 17/03/2022 we can see fall in Nifty till at least previous pivot low of 15670 in order to confirm double bottom. Trade Setup 1)Need reversal candle near cycle period,price being at gap(17050-80) or previous price action zone(17340-400). 2)Next day market should trade below reversal candle low for atleast first hour in order to initiate trade. Stop-loss should be reversal candle high for short trade and target would be 15670. Disclaimer:This are just my views on the index,no position should be squared off or initiated on its basis.Posting this for my future reference.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
34