Economic Cycles
ES is in its final leg to bottom out around 4085-4075The S&P is in its 5th wave from the high of 4327, nearing the confluence target area of 4085-4075.
Ideally wait till the entire 5th wave is complete (all the subwaves) and wait for a reversal to take a low risk entry.
Targets can be the mid 4200s.
New idea will be updated there
ES emini wave analysis from 3693 lowThis whole rise has from 3693 low (yes, not the actual low at 3639. Refer: wave 5 truncation) has been a 3 wave move so far.
Wave 1/A has been a clear 5 wave followed by an extended 3/C wave with the iii of 3 extension.
The 3/C wave ended with wave 5 as an ending diagonal.
Now, the fall from the absolute high of 4327 has been impulsive so far with a series of 1-2-i-ii.
The first target post a completion of 5 waves up is the range of the 4th wave of lower degree. This comes at 4113-4080.
This level also coincides with the 0.382 retracement of the entire rise from 3723.
Given that the entire move from the top is impulsive, we can expect a minimum of a 5-3-5 correction. After that is done, we can evaluate if it evolves into a further decline, or pushes towards a new high.
Summary: Target - 4080. Further decline to be evaluated based on the evolving structure after that.
-ansible/entropy
Nifty wave counts from 15183This is one of the rare case where a 3 wave move up has a C wave extension greater than the regular 1.382/1.618.
In super-extended moves, we have seen C Waves extend to 2.0 and even 2.618 of wave A.
What determines the future move is the speed of reversal post completion of Wave C/3.
Another supporting evidence for it being a wave C and not wave 3 is that the initial moves prior to wave C was a clean Wave A i.e. a 3 wave move contained withing parallel lines, whose subwaves tended to equality.
A bull case could be made that - no it was a 1-2-i-ii and not an a-b-c within Wave A, but generally in 1-2-i-ii, the lower degree 1 is shorter than the length of the higher degree 1. Here, both waves tended to equality. Hence an argument for it being a wave A is stronger.
Now we will have to see how price behaves at prior wave 4s of lower degree. Immediate supports are offered in the range of 17150-17450, which is the range of the Wave 4 of lower degree. A corrective rise from there will confirm that we are going further lower.
Will revisit this developing idea once we are at 17150-200.
-ansible/entropy
Nifty Where does this heading July Contract Still Nifty showing corrective structure and we would be forced to change the view above 16200 levels.
Nifty retracing before its next fall. Nifty will be completing 61.8 retracement at 16116. If this area holds then we can expect a deeper fall towards 15200 and Below.
is BANKNIFTY ready for more.?BANKNIFTY did exactly as we analysed and has also successfully filled the gap taking the neckline as support now we can see BANKNIFTY resisting at 34400 as the gap has been filled and is an important closing hence if BANKNIFTY opens flat to negative we might see a good downside movement on the other hand if opens strong we might see 34400 acting as a good support and continuing its bull run
BTC Blood Path !!! But where is the BOTTOM ???Good day to everyone!
BTC enters the BOTTOM zone which is between 16-22k. Best buy zone is 16-18k .
We may rally to the resistance zone 48-50k after few months of bottom consolidation (July - October), and then continues the Bull Run breaking ATH.
Get ready for the next Bull Cycle..
~RPS
Important SUPPORT is still securedAs we analysed yesterday that the opening is very important and any flat to positive openeing could show strong upmove and we did saw that today but that upmove couldn’t sustain any longer and fell in the second half but still closed above our given support! this shows the same scenario as yesterday and same setup can be implied but continuous hitting on support is making rhe level weaker and hence as soon as the level is broken we can go short as this level will later act as resistance and one sided fall of 200 points can be seen in nifty
Bank Nifty:Bow Tie Diametric pattern.End of wave E.Go short.Rise in Bank nifty seems to have taken a form of Bow-Tie diametric pattern.We have seen completion of wave A,B,C,D,E.Currently it seems like we are in the middle of wave F.Wave F equality target of wave B is coming at 34608.Also it seems like wave F internally is forming a flat corrective pattern of which wave A and wave B is done and today after price retracing wave A by 80% (at 35958) wave C has commenced.Internally wave C target of 100% and 161% extention of wave A is coming at 35163 and 34672 respectively in this flat correction.
Bank nifty 15 day cycle has also passed it's 2/3rd topping time zone and is ending on 6th june,along with this we also had a top formed on no moon which is yet not taken out.
One can go short with a stop-loss of 36100 at cmp of 35550 for a target of 34700.
Disclaimer:This are just my view on index.Do not trade solely on its basis.Posting this just for my future reference.
NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE ON MONTHLY T/F.This has to happen because of the negative divergence over RSI on monthly time frame. Now, there could be two scenarios once it reaches its support, which you can clearly articulate from the chart itself. But according to various reports on commodities cycle, it's just getting started, so there are high chances it will bounce from its previous demand zone.
CNX PSUBANK:Time Cycle analysis and possible trade setuppsu bank index is following 55 days cycle meaning every 55 day we get a pivot low.so far we havent seen a lower low on psu bank index as compare to bank nifty or nifty.current 55 day cycle is ending on 31st may meaning around may end we can expect psu bank index to form important pivot low.
adding moon phases to this cycle we can get to know the harmonic of the 55 day cycle.here it seems like post every full moon we are seeing either a significant rally or a consolidation meaning prior trend either reverses or takes a pause after a full moon.we have a full moon on 16th may indicating current selling momentum can decrease and we can see some sort of consolidation or a small rally.
we are also seeing index at previous support(shown in blue line),although breached on 12th may,we haven't seen a follow through meaning we havent seen a lower low in yesterdays trading session.now if on monday 16th may,we get a close above friday's high then we can assume a temporary bottom has been formed and selling would halt.
on a larger scale it seems like psubank index is forming head and shoulder top pattern neckline of which is breached at 2430.
scenario-1: for long trade
as price has breached support of 2420-30 with most of the momentum indicators showing over sold reading and monday being a full moon day,i am expecting at least current selling momentum/intensity to decrease and form a short term base(4-5 days) hence ideally one should go long if we get a close above fridays high(2500) with fridays low as initial stop-loss(2385),if trade works in favour then one should trail stop-loss as per one's risk apetite every day,as 55 day cycle is still in sell mode,i am not expecting major bottom to form before 31st may or rather a bottom formed around 31st may would be more significant.
scenario-2: for short trade
if stop-loss of scenario 1 is triggered then one should go short aggressively.i will update entry exit levels for short trade.
this index is not tradeble but this analysis can be used as a reference for trading in psu banking stocks.check the chart's of psubank which resembles index's price movement for trading.
in recent times due to intermediate trend being down,i have observed bullish trade setup's are not working hence one can even avoid taking long trade inspite of trade setup criteria being fulfilled by price just to avoid trading against the trend.
trade setup logic
1)use of reversal candle
2)price action support
3)moon phase
4)time cycle
5)pivot low
disclaimer:analysis shown here is just for educational purpose and for my future reference.trade should not be taken solely on its basis.
GALLISPATExcellent strucutre Multiyear Breakout and continuous rounding bottom formation on weekly chart.
Good consolidation Breakout.
Good QTR results.
Stock in blue sky zone.
Keep on radar.
- Gaurav
@Vivek- @vivek_mashrani @forextidings @Tredingview @tradingview_