Economic Cycles
XAU, VIX, and the Great Reset
Dear new and experienced investors,
I'd like to draw your attention to a troubling trend in the financial markets. It appears that the current focus is on making retail traders emotional and undisciplined, which are leading to significant trader losses. The media is busy distracting us with divisive political agendas while the unelected global powers continue to destroy the world economy. Banks are failing, and the US financial monetary system is in bad shape. However, instead of addressing these issues, we are arguing about radical left gender ideologies, misleading climate change 'data', and unreleased FBI documents that we may never even see.
In such uncertain times, it's crucial to focus on investments that provide stability and value. That's why I believe that Gold is poised for a massive breakout soon. Gold has historically been a safe haven asset during times of economic turmoil, and I believe it will continue to be so. When everything else fails, what will be left? True tangible assets. J.P. Morgan stated in his testimony before Congress in 1912, “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.”
The idea that markets are designed to make retail traders lose is not a foreign concept. Smart money tricks retail traders into making emotional decisions that create liquidity at the expense of said retail trader. This leads to a strategic and consistently profitable transfer of wealth from retail traders to smart money.
Smart money creates liquidity not only to convince you to enter a bad trade - but also by manipulating Price Action to persuade novice traders into staying in bad trades. This may seem counterintuitive, but it's a tactic that has been used by Wall Street for a long time. By playing with retail traders' hope and fear, smart money can keep them in bad trades, creating more liquidity for the inevitable reversal.
Low volatility is another way in which smart money creates liquidity. Low volatility means that there is less money flowing through the market, which leads retail to continue taking mediocre trades. This is because retail traders tend to buy high and sell low, and when there is less liquidity, the bid-ask spread widens, making it even more difficult for them to execute trades at a reasonable price.
As retail traders, it's essential to be aware of these smart money tactics and avoid falling into their traps. Managing your risks and knowing when not to trade is crucial to your success in the market. It's also important to stay disciplined and focus on self-awareness. The best traders know and understand themselves intimately. Always seek a deeper understanding of the unknown. Stay informed and formulate your own conclusions rather than citing something you saw on the news. Use your greatest asset - Your Brain.
The financial markets are facing significant challenges, and it's essential to be cautious and focus on investments that provide stability and value - rather than the 'safe' longer term assets your banker uncle makes a 2% commission on.
So in other words; focus on the real Gold. XAU/USD...
Do your own research. This is an opinion piece - not financial advice. You are responsible for your finances.
Yours Truly,
Luke Sullivan
Sources:
"Why Markets Are Designed to Make Retail Investors Emotional" by Nir Kaissar, Bloomberg Opinion
"How Wall Street Fools You Into Staying In Bad Trades" by Matt Levine, Bloomberg Opinion
"Low Volatility Markets May Be A Trap For Investors" by Validea, Forbes
"The Psychology of Trading: How to Remain Disciplined" by Trading Education
"The Importance of Self-Awareness in Trading" by Rande Howell, TraderPlanet.
Jubliant Industry LONGNSE:JUBLINDS Has Shown shome Bullish interest on the Daily and Weekly Timeframe .
Currently is back into a discounted Bullish OB looking strong for some higher price levels of over 460 + levels ,
Simple Execution, Strict entry with the SL below the LTF structural low, and possible re-entry on confirmation.
Ready to trendIt is forming a flag pattern along with the head and shoulder pattern formation. Patterns work better on higher time frames. Hence these consolidations and patterns indicate that a new trend can start.
Doing cycle analysis. It moves in a 20 month cycle. But cycle analysis works best when done on a group of stocks and on multiple timeframes. Hence it is just an indication and timing factor not a deciding factor. Therefore it is the time to study business and the sector fundamentally also.
2x PotentialOn a Monthly log chart, it is near a 9 year old trendline. Looking at the chart it seems the price closes near the trendline every 3 years. Starting from 2014, 2017, 2020 and now 2023. Every time it has given a run up of 100-150%. But this does not guarantee. Hence as price keeps giving breakouts positions can be built.
Nifty and Nifty Midcap Divergence turns more blatantAs Nifty broke the Dec low of 17774 intraday the inter-market divergence between Nifty and the Nifty Midcap 100 index became more blatant. The divergence is a bullish divergence when one index makes a new low unconfirmed by the other. It remains to see how this will unfold.
Bitcoin TimeCycles1. Bitcoin is currently exhibiting a text example of Time Cycles in Play.
2. Staring from the All Time high Bitcoin is following a Cycle of 73-days which can rounded off to 75.
3. Cycles can be difficult to identify because they get lost in TREND.
4. Long Term Trend is bearish until price breaks the pivot high of previous cycle.
There should be a 15% correction in UNFIAccording to my analysis, UNFI has shown a 15% correction in the current uptrend. I opened my short at 6.67 and have a target of 6.3 and stoploss of 6.8. I am not a pro trader this is just my idea of the trade. Happy trading.
Federal Bank Analysis This is more like looking at charts and trying to find out patterns
whom can this help
Investors - what should be there SL in Federal Bank - exit at 66 and re-enter at 41
Technical Analyst - one more analysis - always good to see perspectives :) isn't it
Traders - Not exactly - but they may want to set an Alert for Monthly closing below 66 or above 87 for major moves
Hypothesis
Looking at charts, it seems there is a strong magnetic support/resistance at 40.5 price. It acted like resistance for months, acted like a consolidation zone, acted like a price rotation zone where weak buyers were taken off, After a breakout re-testing of this zone...and again in this pandemic, it came in to play as a strong support zone.
You name it- this price point have gone through all that we could think. So its an important price point for federal bank
Before the pandemic started - the Bank was in a nice slow bullish run forming HH and LH's. Pandemic stuck - it fell like others and now in an interesting zone
Here the price can consolidate for a while or breakout or break-down - Depending on other factors that no one knows. What we can safely infer is - if its breakout of this zone this will test the previous HL and if it breakdowns will test our magnetic price point of 40.5
at the end - this is a hypothesis, and in certain conditions becomes true and in certain conditions becomes false. So watch out for conditions
Happy Trading
MSK