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Gap up / gap down intraday strategy with simple entry / exitI get queries from a lot of people who don't want to study technical analysis much. They're just focused on getting a predefined trading strategy, which they can use effectively in the market without looking much at the charts . So, in this video, I share a strategy which has been given really good results and it works a lot of times and I believe the probability of this particular strategy is close to around 65 to 70%. It has simple entry and exit rules, and you can only apply this particular strategy when the market opens gap up or gap down. See, whenever the market opens gap up or gap down, there is high volatile period of the market during the beginning half an hour or an hour. And in that period of time,if you place a trade, then you have a good probability if market moves as per expectation. As you can see these days, nifty and back nifty have been creating gap up and gap down opening almost on a daily basis. In this case, the first rule is that if the market opens gap up by more than half a percent. So for example, if bank nifty opens gap up by more then 200 points. , then only you can apply this strategy. And on the other hand, if nifty opens gap up or gap down by more than 50 or 60 points, then only you should think of applying this particular strategy. Small gaps do not count in this strategy. So if bank nifty gaps down or gaps up by only 50- 60 points, then avoid this strategy altogether. See, whenever the market is opening gap up or gap down, there are two possibilities. The market might continue the current trend. For example, if the market opens gap up, the chances are that the market might move higher, or the other possibility is that the market might go sideways the whole day. So ,in this case, whenever you see the market opening gap up or gap down by more than half a percent, just have to follow this simple procedure. Just plot the 15 minute chart with a 20 exponential moving average. Why 20 exponential moving average because the market usually gets good support and resistance around the 20 moving average. You can expect the market to stall around the moving average for a lot of times if you take a trade. So ,you just have to plot the 15 minute chart, and if the market gaps up or gaps down, you just have to watch the first 15 minute candle. So if the market opens gap up and it forms a bullish candle. Then , what you can do is you can sell puts if price breaks the first 15M candle high. You can sell puts with the stop loss at the low of the candle. If the market comes below the low of the candlestick the first 15 minute bar, then you exit your position and book the loss. Why sell puts? The idea behind selling puts is that during the first 15-30 minutes, the volatility is on a very higher side during that period. And if at that point of time you start to sell options, then with the passage of time, as the market starts to move sideways, the volatility reduces. And, what occurs is a concept called IV Crush. The volatility starts to reduce very quickly and that will give you a benefit if you sell a put, even if the market goes sideways. So for example, the market formed a very big bullish candle, and the criteria is if it crosses the high of the candle ,sell puts . So, the whole day, if the market is moving sideways/upwards , the volatility crush will start to happen. And with the passage of time, you'll start to see the benefit of the IV Crush and the time decay. So this is a very handy strategy which you can apply. Always remember, keep the stop loss below of the first 15M candle. It's a very effective technique, and it's based upon gap openings. And ,the first 15 minutes usually tell us who is on the stronger side, who's winning , buyers or sellers. So make sure the gap is big and whatever bar is being formed in the first 15 minutes. If the bar is bullish, you sell a put If the price crosses the high of that candle stick, and stop plus below the low of that candlestick. It's an effective rule based strategy and you can back test it on nifty and bank nifty. And you can also check its reliability, its effectiveness, you can also add this particular strategy in your tool kit. So I hope this strategy will provide some sort of value to you in your trading. And if you find the video helpful, don't forget to like this and share it and also comment your thoughts. Thank you very much and take care.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by piyushrawtani
24
GOLD BREAK OF BULLISH MARKET STRUCTUREXAUUSD just broke bullish market structure. It failed to break Higher high and created a double top which will be confirmed as it breaks below 1705. Will be entering short as it breaks below 1705 and confirms it on hourly chart TP 1 will be 0.5 Fib which is 1672.05 and TP 2- 1658.42. will go for TP 3 1617 if it breaks below golden pocket of 0.618. My SL will be 2% I'll be entering short only if it actually confirms the double top by breaking below 1705. that will confirm market has actually flipped to bearish
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by itwasblue
18
UPL - Multi time frame AnalysisPlan A : Price is still below the trend line resistance and sustaining 688 - 692 will make the price to move towards 696,702. Plan B : Near by resistance 700 - 704. Price should sustain this zone to move to 710, 716 and 722. Plan C : If price shows bearish strength below 686 - 690, then price will move to 682,677, 672 and 666. Note : Understand the trend strength before taking any trade. If you are bullish look for bullish strengh and if you are bearish look for bearish strength. Dont change your view with each candle.
NSE:UPL
by vanathi
10
'SWING' your losses into profits with 'SWING' trading strategiesIn prior posts, we have covered some great teachings about the market and, in this post, we will elaborately cover the swing trading strategies. Let's start !! ->Definition of swing trading -: Swing trading is generally referred to as a trade carried out for a short time. Swing traders do not wait till the price action opposes their direction, they are known for their prior moves. They are good at identifying the shifts in market trends with the help of various techniques which are explained throughout this idea. Swing trading strategies include the use of Fibonacci, Bollinger Bands, Channel Trading, Moving Average, MACD crossover, and better understanding of chart patterns like Head & Shoulder, Flag, and Triangle Patterns. We will discuss chart patterns, later on, now let's focus on the indicator strategies. - >Swing trading strategies -: ->Fibonacci Retracement: The stock price tends to retrace, and swing traders use this retracement as an opportunity to enter a trend. The retracement levels could be identified using Fibonacci Retracement, all you need is to identify the prior trend and if the price retraces to the 0.618 level and again resumes the trend jump on it and ride the position till it reaches 0.236 level. ->Bollinger Bands : Most probably, the stock price tries to move in the Bollinger band, which is used by swing traders to initiate and terminate their position. Firstly you need to identify the major trend, let's suppose it's bearish than when the price reaches the upper bound and there is a formation of a bearish candle you could initiate a short position also when a bearish candle is formed at the median, there also you can initiate a short position. ->Channel Trading: Sometimes, stock price trades in a channel now this channel is used by swing traders i.e. when the trend is bullish they try to take long position at the lower range of channel and book partial profits on median and wait for the price to reach the upper end. ->Moving Average: Here traders identify the major trend and take position according to it, with help of crossovers they generally prefer 10DEMA crosses 20DEMA. ->MACD : This is a simple strategy where the trades are initiated when there is MACD crossover but the cross should correlate with the trend. My Observation-: These strategies could be more accurate if used to trade with the trend, i.e. if the stock is in an uptrend only take positions for a positive signal and just avoid negative signals. Another basic strategy is to take a position when a script moves above the swing high or below the swing low, here the only thing to ponder is to manage your risk. Don't take over positions understand your risk appetite then take positions.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Chaser30
20
The Top 3 Elements found in all good trading plansHey everyone! 👋 This month, we have been theming our posts around the concept of building a solid trading plan. Our first post asked you to think about the kinds of factors that can predict long-term success. Our second post looked at why trading plans are so important. Both of these posts you can find linked at the end 👇 Having talked about the *what* and the *why*, it’s time to talk about the *how*. Today we will be taking a look at the top 3 elements found in all good trading plans! 1️⃣ Element 1: Every good trading plan knows why it wins. In trading, there are two variables that matter: Bat Rate, and Win / Loss. ► Bat Rate describes what percentage of the time a trade ends up as a win. A trader with a 90% bat rate wins 9 out of every 10 trades. ► Win / Loss describes how big the average win is, relative to the average loss. A trader with a 0.5 Win / Loss takes losses twice the size of his wins. If you multiply these numbers together, you will get an “Expected Value”. For example, a trader with a Bat Rate of 50% (wins half of the time) and a Win / Loss of 1 (Losses the same size as wins) is a perfectly “Breakeven” trader. In order to make money in the long term, all you need to do is make the multiplication of these values be a positive value. The breakeven trader above only needs to win 51% of trades to begin making money, if his W/L remains constant. ☝🏽To get these numbers into positive “expected value” territory, every good trading plan needs to devise a way to systematically find trading opportunities that it thinks have an edge. The inputs of this system are completely up to the trader, but they are typically rooted in repeating price patterns, fundamental observations, macro trends, or other patterns and cycles. Backtesting can be useful here for getting a general idea of whether or not an idea for a trading strategy has borne out to be true over time. In short, no matter what it looks like, good trading plans identify their edge before risking capital. Why start a business without a business plan? 2️⃣ Element 2: Every good trading plan takes into account the emotional character of the trader. This is the hardest element to quantify, but also arguably one of the most important pieces of a good written trading plan - the ability to work around a trader’s individual strengths and weaknesses. This is less important for banks and hedge funds, as decisions are typically made with oversight, but for retail traders, there is no-one around to temper your personal flaws. You can do whatever you want! - but it’s a double edged sword of responsibility that your trading plan needs to prepare you for. In short, you can best get an idea of where you are emotionally weakest by looking at your trading history. Nobody can do this for you, so it requires quite a bit of self-awareness. However, the rewards of removing emotional risk from a trading plan make it worth the effort. 😱 All trading is based on fear. You need to understand which fear is stronger - the fear of missing out, or the fear of losing capital. Figure out which is stronger, and plan accordingly. Just because you understand a certain strategy and other people make money trading it, doesn’t mean that you will be able to. Executing with 100% consistency at 30% efficiency is more important than finding a strategy with 100% efficiency that you can only trade with 10% consistency. Make life easy on yourself! 3️⃣ Element 3: Every good trading plan outlines risk. Whether you have one thousand dollars or one billion dollars, ignoring risk is a sure way to experience massively increased monetary and emotional volatility , which can have a huge negative impact on long term profitability. Here are a few simple-to-implement mechanisms that Banks, Hedge Funds, and Prop Firms use to reduce risk significantly - good trading plans don’t skip these. 💵 Total Account Stop Exactly what it sounds like: once you lose a certain percentage of your capital, you stop trading, liquidate your positions, and assess what went wrong. Only once you’re satisfied that you have fixed the issue are you allowed to re-enter the market. In the industry, this number is commonly 10%. 💵 Per Theme Risk This ensures that you aren’t too concentrated on a single “bet”, even if the bet is spread across multiple instruments. For example, if you own multiple companies in the same sector, their performance will likely be correlated to some degree even if they have different products or services. Adding a hard cap to this type of risk can massively reduce risky or over concentrated allocations. 💵 Per Position Risk Many successful Professional Traders and Hedge Funds use the concept of “Free Capital” in order to manage risk. “Free Capital” is the amount of money in hard dollars that makes up the buffer between an account’s current equity, and the total account stop number. For example, If a currency trader at a bank has a 10% total account stop out, and runs a $10,000,000 currency book, then he can really only “lose” $1,000,000 before his bosses pull him aside to have a talk. His “Free Capital” is $1,000,000. He will then size his positions to where he only risks 1-5% of his Free Capital per trade. This way, he has room to be wrong a minimum of 20 times in a row before any negative consequences come his way. Implementing a “free capital” risk limit per position ensures that you have a TON of room for error. Yes, this typically prevents you from doubling your account overnight, but again, that isn’t the goal. Long term profitability is. Some people call this per position risk “one R” (one risk unit). ☝🏽Whatever it looks like, including a plan for managing your risk is essential for *actually* managing your risk. If these plans aren’t written out and acted upon, they’re also a lot easier to ignore. 🙏🏽 Thanks for reading! Hope this was helpful! - TradingView Team ❤️❤️ Make sure you follow us on Instagram and YouTube for more awesome content! 💘
Education
by TradingView
8
NIFTY in 3-3-5 Corrective Elliot Wave- Overall Bull Trend IntactNIFTY 50 Analysis based on Elliot Wave Theory 1) 5-April-2022 to 17-June-2022: NIFTY 50 formed a 5-wave bearish impulse wave down from 18,100 to 15,175 2) 19-June-2022 to 13-Sept-2022: NIFTY 50 formed a 5-wave bullish impulse wave up from 15,175 to 18,075 3) 18-Aug-2022 to 13-Sept-2022: Waves (4) and (5) of the 5-wave bullish impulse wave were also the beginning of an A-B-C (3-3-5) corrective wave that often forms after a 5-wave impulse wave. On closer viewing, you will notice that Waves (A) and (B) of such A-B-C corrective wave also form 1-2-3 sub-waves wherein sub-waves 1 and 3 were bearish and wave 2 was bullish, thereby confirming the pattern. 4) 13-Sept-2022 to Present Day: Wave (C) of the A-B-C Corrective Wave has formed an Expanded Flat Pattern, i.e. Wave (C) has extended beyond Wave (A). As per Elliot Wave Theory, Wave (C) usually extends to between 100% to 162% of Wave (A), and most often to around 123%, marked by the 1 and 1.618 Fibonnaci Levels drawn. 5) Projection (29-Sept-2022 onwards, possibly 2-3 weeks): For this theory to be confirmed, it is likely that NIFTY 50 will bounce from the 200-EMA support level of around 16,850 towards the 55-EMA (17,100) or 89-EMA (17,200) forming sub-wave (D) of the (C) wave of the A-B-C Corrective Wave, and then re-test the 200-EMA support forming sub-wave (E) of the (C) wave of the A-B-C Corrective Wave. 6) Conclusion: In this manner, a double-bottom off the 200-EMA would also be formed, before NIFTY continues its overall bullish trend with a re-test (and possibly 6th time lucky) or break above 18,100 levels.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Wolf-AD7
61
Nifty 50 - Educational Analysis on why the 7% drop - ConfluenceThis is an education post of understanding some possible reasons when a correction happens _____________ Few Reasons for Nifty's Bearish Outlook (Short term) 1. Negative RSI Divergence - Price goes up and RSI goes down 2. Break of Rising Wedge Pattern 3. Break of previous swing low (17160) 4. Previous peak rejection making the 18100 as a double top 5. MACD divergence and crossover _____________ Daily Hourly On hourly Time frame 6. Broke a major trendline 7. With a Head and shoulders 8. A rounding top So multiple factors and views indicating - A confluence View
NSE:NIFTY
by TreasureTraderZ
5
Would You Stake Yourself?Hey everyone! 👋 Last week, we took a look at a hypothetical scenario, where a rich acquaintance of yours needed help deciding between two traders he's thinking about staking. This led to the question: "Who would you stake?". This post will continue right where that one left off. - After getting the contact info, you reach out to interview the two traders. You speak with Trader #1 , and he appears to be quite intelligent, with wide and deep market knowledge. He’s shown you a few market predictions that he’s already gotten correct, and walks you through how he finds opportunities. You’re impressed. You speak with Trader #2 , and he also appears to be quite intelligent, with broad market knowledge, in addition to a history of profitable investment/trade ideas. He walks you through how he finds opportunities, and, similar to Trader #1, you’re quite impressed. In addition, he also presents you with written details about how he plans to manage risk, his maximum drawdown, and a whole litany of other clearly defined rules that keep risk under control and quality trade ideas coming. Assuming we are still in the position of choosing which trader to stake, most, if not all, individuals in this situation would pick Trader #2 because of his attention to preparation and risk control, in addition to having a ‘business plan’. Trader #1 may be smart and highly capable, but he’s shown no evidence that he has a process to continually generate good trade ideas while ensuring that he doesn’t lose everything. Trader #2 has “done the work”, and proven that he’s worthy of the capital. - Whether they know it or not, anyone who manages their own money is constantly faced with the same decision. If you step outside of yourself, are you more like trader #1 or #2? Is your trading plan worthy of investment? Would you invest in someone else who’s taken the same trades that you have? Does that person have a plan? Have they “done the work”? Keeping yourself honest about what is working and what isn't is a superpower! Hopefully, this emphasizes the importance of building a trading plan. Next week we will take a look at what factors are typically needed in order to build an effective one. If you’re not like Trader #2, comment below about the steps you’re taking to become better prepared for what the market throws at you! -Team TradingView If you missed last week’s post, you can catch up here:
NSE:FORTISEducation
by TradingView
4
MARUTI: Ascending TriangleThis is also a converging triangle formed with one flat horizontal line on the top & an inclined line meeting at a common point as illustrated in the chart. The flat horizontal line act as a resistance for the prices & the on the inclined line the prices take support. It’s not necessary that the ascending triangle formation takes place only in the bull market, they can be formed in a bearish trend also. Here also you should concern with the key point “The Third Touch”. The five significant points help us to make our decision in a better way. Here, each points suggesting a reversal point & as soon as price got it’s third touch on the inclined supporting line the price shoot up & a breakout happened. The target for this pattern is the maximum vertical range of the triangle. Trading strategy:MARUTI: BUY 9285-75 SL: 9050 TGT: 9545/9850
NSE:MARUTILong
by TradingSutra
17
EURO/USD (Neowave Analysis)FX:EURUSD Hi Everyone Its been a long time almost an year EUR/USD had been falling. We were falling in an structure of L series (mean long term wave ) and recently we have completed L5 a 0.98132. Now its time for an ABC correction structure which we represent with LC1, LC2. ( C stand for correction). Let see structure equation, 1) We are in (LC 1 >) in which we have completed M1 ( m stand for medium term waves) and progressing with M2 (LC 1>M2 ?) 2) Further if we brake down M series you will see s series( s stand for short term wave) (LC 1>M2 > SC 2?) 3 ) This mean after correction wave in wave M2, we will definitely see an 5 or 3 wave structure in s series as long as we are above invalidation levels. Note - This equation is just for your memory. Let me know if this is helpful or not. If you does not understand our coding structure plz check out below chart. Thank You
Long
by Neowave-forecast
2
Who would you Stake?Hey everyone! 👋 In the next few posts, we'll be looking at the key elements involved in building a solid trading plan, but today, to introduce the concepts in a fun way, we will be looking at a completely hypothetical situation. - Let’s say that you’re walking down the street, and a stranger approaches you with a business proposal; he’s recently sold his business, and come into a significant amount of capital - 1,00,00,000 INR. Additionally, word of the sale has gotten to two separate aspiring traders, who have approached him asking him if they can manage his money in return for a fee. The stranger has heard from a family friend that you’re interested in trading, and he wants your help in picking out which trader to invest the money in. In return for your help, He’s going to split the profits he makes 50-50 with you. Obviously, it’s in your best interest to help him make a decision that will make the most money for the longest period of time, with the least amount of risk. The stranger then pulls out contact information for both traders and asks you to interview them separately. - Here's our question to you: if you only get to ask the traders three questions to gauge their likely future performance, what would you ask them? What questions dive to the heart of risk, reward, and sustainability? We look forward to your replies, and in next week's post, we will begin looking at how some of the likely responses can go towards building out a consistent, profitable process! - Team TradingView Feel free to check us out on Instagram , Telegram , and YouTube for more awesome content! 💘
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
15