BLUEPRINT to a SUCCESSFUL TRADERIf you want to go from Delhi to Mumbai, there are many stations that come in between. Just like that, a trader has to pass through several stages before achieving success. Knowing which stage you’re in is crucial—it helps you stay on track, avoid frustration, and progress systematically. This Post May Sound Basic, But It’s Extremely Important
Here are the 4 Stages of a Trader and how they define your journey:
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1. The Excitement Phase
- What It Feels Like:
You’ve discovered trading, and it feels like the gateway to unlimited wealth. Every win feels like a step closer to “quitting your job,” and losses are dismissed as bad luck.
- Reality Check:
This is the honeymoon phase. Without a plan or risk management, you’re trading on emotion, not skill. Big losses often serve as a wake-up call here.
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2. The Learning Phase
- What It Feels Like:
You’ve realized trading isn’t a game of luck—it’s a skill that requires discipline and study. You dive into books, watch tutorials, and experiment with strategies.
- Challenges:
- Information overload: Which indicator works best?
- Doubt: Am I even cut out for this?
- Outcome:
Progress is slow, but this is where the foundation for mastery is laid.
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3. The Frustration Phase (THIS STAGE LASTS LONGER THAN ONE CAN IMAGINE)
- What It Feels Like:
You’ve gained knowledge, but your execution isn’t consistent. Every win is wiped out by a bigger loss. Strategy-hopping becomes a vicious cycle.
- Why Most Quit Here:
The emotional toll of inconsistency is heavy. Many traders blame the market, their broker, or even themselves, concluding that trading “isn’t for them.”
- The Breakthrough:
This is a test of resilience. Traders who stick to the process and focus on discipline eventually push through.
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4. The Mastery Phase
- What It Feels Like:
Trading becomes systematic—a business, not a gamble. You’ve developed an edge, trust your strategy, and prioritize risk management.
- Key Characteristics:
- Discipline: You follow your plan without hesitation.
- Confidence: Losses don’t shake you because you know your edge works over the long term.
- Sustainability: Trading isn’t just profitable—it’s consistent.
- This Is True Success:
You understand the market isn’t a money-making machine; it’s a test of probabilities and discipline.
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Why Knowing Your Stage Matters
Understanding where you are in this journey is like knowing which station you’ve reached on the Delhi-to-Mumbai train. It helps you prepare for what’s ahead and keeps you focused on reaching the destination.
So, ask yourself: Which stage am I in?
Let us know in the comments, and tag a fellow trader who’s on this journey with you.
Educationalposts
Why PRO takes losses and everybody else LOSESTrading isn’t just about making gains—it's about managing losses like a professional. Here are some ideas on what separates amateurs from seasoned traders and how you can elevate your mindset:
Shift from Emotion to Execution:
Pros don't get attached to trades. They let data guide decisions, not emotions. Instead of celebrating a win or stressing over a loss, they focus on consistent execution. Tip: Try setting specific exit rules before you enter a trade, so you’re never swayed by market noise.
Embrace Small Losses to Avoid Big Ones:
Losing trades are inevitable, but pros keep them small. Amateurs sometimes hold onto losses, hoping they’ll recover, while pros cut losses early. Tip: Adopt a strict risk-reward ratio and stick to it. Think of it as a way to protect your capital for future trades.
Every Loss is a Lesson:
Professionals look at every losing trade as data, not failure. They analyze it: Was there an overlooked signal? Did the market behave unexpectedly? They use losses to refine strategies. Tip: Keep a trading journal. Record wins and losses along with your thought process. Patterns will emerge over time.
See Trading as a Business:
For pros, trading isn’t gambling; it’s a business. They’re less concerned with each individual trade and more focused on their overall strategy and risk management. Tip: Calculate your monthly performance, not just individual trades. Aim for consistent, steady growth.
Stay Calm During Drawdowns:
Market conditions change, and even the best traders experience drawdowns. It’s about staying in control, sticking to your plan, and trusting your process. Tip: Take a break if emotions start taking over. Sometimes stepping away can be the best decision you make.
Remember: Trading is a journey, not a sprint. It’s not about winning every trade but about thinking long-term, focusing on learning, and developing resilience. Keep pushing forward, keep learning, and most importantly, keep trading smart!
Bank Nifty Analysis 25th octoberBank Nifty Analysis 25th october
Support level at 50000 and also round level which can trigger more sellers or may trap. Check if it restest and then break after that only seller can takeover below 50000
Resistance at 51000 if breaks above this level then only buyers gets more active!!
WHY DO TRADERS FAIL?Why Most Traders Fail: Common Psychological Traps
Many beginner traders enter the market with a lot of enthusiasm but often leave disheartened after experiencing losses. One of the main reasons for this is not a lack of technical skills or strategy, but rather the inability to manage the psychological aspects of trading. Let’s dive into some of the most common psychological traps and how you can avoid them to become a more successful trader.
1. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): FOMO is a powerful emotion in trading. It happens when you see a stock or asset rapidly rising, and you feel the urge to jump in late just because everyone else is. This often leads to entering trades at poor levels, where the risk of reversal is high.
Why It’s Dangerous: You end up making emotional decisions, ignoring your strategy.
How to Avoid It: Stick to your plan and predefined entry/exit points. Remind yourself that opportunities in the market are endless; chasing a missed trade could lead to a bad decision.
2. Revenge Trading: This occurs after a loss, where you try to win back the money immediately by placing irrational trades. Instead of accepting a loss, traders emotionally double down, hoping to recover quickly, often resulting in even bigger losses.
Why It’s Dangerous: Trading becomes emotional rather than strategic, leading to a cycle of poor decisions.
How to Avoid It: Accept that losses are a part of the game. Take a break after a significant loss to clear your mind, and only return when you can trade objectively again.
3. Overconfidence After a Win: After a string of successful trades, traders may feel invincible and start to ignore their risk management rules. They increase their position size without realizing that the market can turn at any moment.
Why It’s Dangerous: Overconfidence leads to taking on more risk than you can afford, which can wipe out profits or even lead to significant losses.
How to Avoid It: Stick to your trading plan regardless of recent success. Don’t increase position sizes without a valid reason and proper risk management in place.
4. Greed – Holding On for Too Long: Sometimes, traders hold on to winning trades far too long, hoping for even bigger profits. Instead of taking profits at their target, they let greed take over and end up losing a significant portion of their gains when the market reverses.
Why It’s Dangerous: Greed blinds traders to the signals that it's time to exit.
How to Avoid It: Set clear profit targets and stick to them. Use trailing stop-losses to lock in profits while allowing for potential additional gains.
5. Not Accepting Losses – Holding on to Losing Trades: Many traders struggle with cutting their losses because it feels like admitting defeat. They hold on to losing trades for far too long, hoping the market will turn in their favor, which often results in deeper losses.
Why It’s Dangerous: Holding onto losing trades can drain your capital and emotional reserves.
How to Avoid It: Have a strict stop-loss in place for every trade. Accept that small losses are part of trading and necessary for long-term success.
Conclusion: In trading, your mindset and emotions can be as critical as your technical analysis or strategy. By recognizing these common psychological traps—FOMO, revenge trading, overconfidence, greed, and refusing to accept losses—you can manage your emotions better and make more objective trading decisions. Always remember: successful trading is not just about big wins; it’s about consistency, discipline, and emotional control.
What psychological traps have you experienced in your trading journey? Share your experiences in the comments below and let’s learn together!
MILLIONAIRE TRADER'S advice"One Conversation Changed Everything"
Recently, I had the privilege of speaking with a millionaire stock trader (NOT THE YOUTUBER MILLIONAIRE TRADER), and the insight I gained was both simple and profound:
HE SAID ONE LINE
"Pros take losses. Everyone else loses."
This statement hit me hard. It’s a reminder that in both trading and life, it's not about avoiding failure—it's about managing it. The most successful people don't win by never losing; they win by knowing when to take a loss and move forward.
It’s a lesson that goes beyond the markets. Whether in business or personal growth, knowing how to cut your losses is the key to long-term success.
Would love to hear your thoughts on this powerful lesson! 👇
FOLLOW ME for more such content ahead
Technical Analysis DOESN'T WORK anymore?"Does this really predict the market, or are we reading too much into it?"
Technical Analysis is useless – Here's Why You Shouldn't Buy Into the Hype
I've been in the trading world long enough to know one thing: technical analysis isn’t the holy grail that many claim it to be.
Sure, charts, patterns, and indicators look fancy, and they give the illusion of certainty. But here’s the harsh reality: Markets don’t care about your patterns.
If technical analysis worked the way it’s advertised, wouldn’t everyone be making easy money? The truth is, the market moves based on emotions, macroeconomic factors, and real-world events—not lines drawn on a chart.
Successful traders don't rely on perfect predictions, they rely on managing their risk, adapting to market conditions, and learning from their losses.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s great for understanding market sentiment to some extent, but if you’re betting your portfolio on head-and-shoulders patterns or the RSI alone, you’re in for a rude awakening.
In the end, trading is about experience, discipline, and understanding human psychology. That’s where the real edge is.
#stockmarket
NANDAN DENIMCompany has reduced debt.
Stock is trading at 1.09 times its book value of 40.6
Market Cap 635 Cr.
PE 14 vs Industry PE 32
ROCE 11.7 %
ROE 8 % vs ROE 3Yr 7 %
EPS growth 3Years 170 %
Earnings yield 13 %
ROIC 8.16 %
Debt to equity 0.56
Promoter holding 65 %
Pledged percentage 0 %
PEG Ratio 0.87
CROIC 12.8 %
Piotroski score 9
Chg in FII Hold 0.13 %
Banknifty Trend Report Hello Everyone 👋
Today Bank-Nifty Try to Break High if Bank-nifty Break High so we need to cut our Down position.
Give me Some Time Today We upload Some Levels So you Can I Easily Identify Trend.
1.Bullish Shark Harmonic Pattern: The BANK-NIFTY chart currently showcases a Bullish Shark Harmonic Pattern forming within a rising parallel channel. This pattern suggests a potential bullish move, provided that the price holds above the crucial level of 50,149. That level should act as a strict stop loss.
2.Recent Trend: On August 14, there was a trending move. The price consolidated in the morning for a few hours and then started to fall. Currently, the price is at a support level, and it can either move up or continue to fall. The trend direction is still deciding, so keep an eye on it.
3.Long-Term Investment Considerations: If you’re considering long-term investment in the banking sector, consider Bank Nifty ETFs. These exchange-traded funds offer easy diversification and flexibility.
Data Base Trading Part = 4 #Institutions Options chain can be defined as the listing of all option contracts. It comes with two different sections: call and put. A call option means a contract that gives you the right but does not give you the obligation to buy an underlying asset at a particular price and within the option's expiration date.
An option chain trading strategy can be formulated by seeing accumulations in OI (open interest) and volumes in various option strikes. You should note, here, that open interest implies the number that tells you how many options or futures contracts are presently outstanding/open, within the market.
FMCG SECTOR - Overview | Educational PostWhy the FMCG Sector is a Must-Have for Long-Term Investment
- I am highly bullish on the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector, particularly in the context of a booming economy like India's This sector is fundamentally driven by the robust Indian consumption theme, which continues to expand rapidly due to the country’s growing middle class, increasing urbanization, and rising disposable incomes.
- For those looking to build a robust and resilient investment portfolio, the FMCG sector is indispensable. Its alignment with the Indian consumption growth story, coupled with its recession-proof nature, makes it a compelling long-term play. Including FMCG stocks in your portfolio can provide both stability and growth, making it a must-have sector for any prudent investor.
MONTHLY TF VIEW:
I) Key Drivers of FMCG Sector Growth
1. Stable Demand: FMCG products, ranging from food and beverages to household and personal care items, are essential for daily life. This ensures a steady and non-cyclical demand, making the sector resilient to economic fluctuations.
2. Consumer Behavior: Indian consumers are becoming increasingly brand-conscious and willing to spend more on quality and convenience, driving premiumization trends within the FMCG space.
3. Urbanization and Lifestyle Changes: With more people moving to urban areas, there is a noticeable shift towards packaged and ready-to-use products. This urbanization trend is set to continue, providing a sustained growth trajectory for FMCG companies.
II) Recession-Proof Investment
The FMCG sector is renowned for its defensive characteristics, especially during economic downturns. Even in times of recession, the consumption of essential goods remains relatively unaffected. We can see how the sector managed to outperfrom even in COVID pandemic like situation. This recession-proof nature provides a safeguard for investors, ensuring stable returns even in volatile market conditions.
III) Long-Term Investment Theme
Investing in the FMCG sector is not just about stability; it’s about tapping into a growth story that aligns perfectly with India's long-term economic prospects. Companies in this sector are continuously innovating, expanding their product lines, and enhancing distribution networks to capture greater market share.
- Stay tuned for further insights, updates and trade safely!
- These are my personal views.
- If you liked the analysis, don't forget to leave a comment and boost the post. Happy trading!
Disclaimer: This is NOT a buy/sell recommendation. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Please, do your due diligence before investing.
Thanks & Regards,
Anubrata Ray
HI-TECH GEARSThe Hi-Tech Gears Ltd is an auto components manufacturer primarily engaged in the business of manufacturing gears and transmission components.
The product portfolio of the company comprises precision gears, shafts, transmission components, and engine components catering to two-wheelers (26%), Passenger Vehicles (43%), Commercial Vehicles, and Agri and Off-Road vehicles (31%).
Geographical Split FY24
Domestic: 49%
Exports: 51%
The company exports to 10+ countries, including Canada, USA, Mexico, Germany, China, Japan, South Korea, etc.
Clientele
The customers of the company include Hero MotoCorp Ltd, JCB, Cummins, Daimler Bharat, Tata, DANA, Mahindra, Wabco, Magna, etc.
New Business
In FY24, the company won the new business from India and North America of Rs. 69.5 Cr vs Rs. 175 Cr in FY23. It also ventured into the Indian Passenger Car SUV segment.
EV and New Technologies
The company has initiated the production of gear component final assembly & counter assemble and gear drive and helical gear components in the electric vehicle space. In FY24, it won EV business from Hero Motor Corp and Dana. It is also focusing on advanced technology components like automatic transmission gear.
Repayment of Debts
Co. has reduced its debt from 434 Crs in FY23 to 195 Crs in FY24 (excluding Lease Liabilities)
Focus
The company is focusing on improving asset utilization through targeted selling of existing capacity, higher customer engagement, and cost mitigation.
THE NEW INDIA ASSURANCEThe setup is low risk high reward.
A nice base formation refusing to fall 5 times.
Stage 2 Stock
New India Assurance Company Ltd is India's largest non-life insurance company. It is promoted by the Government of India (GoI) holding ~86% stake
Presently, the company operates through a network of 2,200+ offices across 29 states and 7 UTs in India
Presently, the company is a market leader in health, motor, liability, fire and marine line of insurance business.
It has ~14% market share in general insurance industry in India.
The company has operations in 28 countries. It has branches and agency offices in Abu Dhabi, Australia, Bahrain, Dubai, Fiji, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Mauritius, Japan, UK, Thailand, and others.
The company is strategically important to Govt. of India because of its dominant market position and because it is the flagship Indian general insurer in the international markets, with a desk at the prestigious Lloyd's syndicate in London. It can help the govt. to materially enhance insurance penetration in the country over the long term.
NIFTY 50 - A Magician's Bluff ???Well Well Well ! What do we have here? A fantastic day at the markets where people are rejoicing their portfolio's in green especially if they were holding Railway and Defence stocks in particular.
Anyways, today is Thursday and tomorrow's closing according to me would be key to understanding this illusion (if any). I am skeptical because there is a strong resistance zone as marked and in 9 sessions we have already moved up 5% and the steam left should ideally be less. So I'm getting a hunch of a magician's bluff being laid out to the retail investors by the big hands.
What is a Magician's bluff ?
There are 3 components.
1. Sleight of hand - refers to the skillful manipulation of objects, typically using the hands, to create illusions and deceive the audience.
2. Misdirection - is the art of diverting the audience's attention away from the secret actions or methods employed by the magician.
3. Presentation. - the ability to effectively communicate and connect with the audience.
Firstly, I have never seen politicians coming out in the open disclosing direction to the markets. Who needs this information? Big hands or retailers? Don't the big hands already have some of the information they require? This to me is 1. Sleight of hand
One of the very common strategies put out on social media is a range breakout. This Nifty50 chart also looks like a range breakout and it could be as well. However, what is bothering me is whether this move today is to make retail investors believe that the info given to them actually is taking place?
I am skeptical and this alerts me w.r.t 2. Misdirection for now.
Talking about 3. Presentation. if tomorrow 24.4.24 we more or less move sideways and close below 22850, there is a possibility of a good correction in the markets close to the results where retailers may get trapped by the big hands who would be thirsty to deploy their funds lower down. We could be correcting to 21000-21500 odd levels at least. (Wolfe Wave coming into effect)
However, If I'm wrong and this is genuinely a good breakout then we could be seeing a small retracement (sideways move) and then head to over 24000.
Linear Vs Logarithmic Chart. Which one to use ?NSE:ADANIENT
Hello, Traders! 👋
I hope you’re all having a fantastic weekend! 🌟 Whether you’re sipping coffee, analyzing charts, or just enjoying some downtime, let’s make it even more productive. 📈💡
In today’s educational post, we’ll explore a concept that might have slipped under your radar or left you slightly puzzled. No worries—I’m here to shed light on it!
Understanding Linear vs. Logarithmic Charts
🔹When it comes to visualizing data, two chart types stand out: linear charts and logarithmic charts. These seemingly simple charts can reveal powerful insights about trends, growth rates, and relative changes. Buckle up—we’re about to explore their differences and use cases! 📊🚀
What is a Linear chart?
🔹The Price plotted on a graph which we call charts, the price on the Y-axis shown will be consistent and uniformly scaled, which shows more significance to recent price action over old price action.
🔹Linear charts are great for showing absolute changes when each price has similar increments.
🔹Linear charts are easy to understand and you are already using them.
What is Logarithmic Chart (Log Scale):
🔹A logarithmic chart, or log scale, depicts percentage changes, giving a more accurate view of relative movements.
🔹Logarithmic charts are especially useful when analyzing Long-term price data. They can show proportional relationships and percentage changes more effectively.
🔹As time goes by, the difference between linear and logarithmic charts becomes more pronounced. Log scales are often preferred for their accuracy.
On this difference table, you can easily understand the uses and benefits of logarthmic charts.
How to switch to a logarithmic chart?
Just right right-click on the Price scale on the Tradingview chart and you will find log chart.
or you can just hover your cursor at the bottom of the price scale you will see A and L (A - means arithmetic and L- Logarithmic).
Note:- On short-term or recent price action these charts will not make any big difference but surely they impact longer-term data.
Feel free to explore both chart types and choose the one that suits your analysis best! 📊🔍
If you’d like more examples or have other questions, just ask—I’m here to help! 😊🚀
Keep Learning,
Happy Trading.
Stay Ahead: Essential Tips to Avoid Trading PitfallsHello TradingView Community!
I'm excited to share some valuable insights on trading pitfalls and how to navigate them effectively. Trading in financial markets can be a challenging journey, but understanding common pitfalls and methods to avoid them can significantly enhance your success. Here are 10 pitfalls traders often encounter and actionable strategies to help you steer clear of them:
Having No Trading Plan:
Entering trades without a plan can lead to impulsive decisions. Develop a clear trading plan outlining your goals, strategies, entry and exit points, and risk management.
Using Strategies That Don't Match Your Personality:
Align your trading strategies with your personality, risk tolerance, and lifestyle. A good match helps you stay consistent and focused.
Having Unrealistic Expectations:
Set realistic goals based on your initial capital and risk tolerance. Trading is not a quick path to wealth, so be patient and persistent.
Taking Too Much Risk:
Avoid over-leveraging and using excessive position sizes. Implement risk management techniques like stop-loss orders and diversification.
Not Having Rules to Follow:
Create a set of trading rules to guide your decisions. These rules provide structure and help you stay disciplined.
Not Being Flexible to Market Conditions:
Adaptability is key in trading. Monitor the markets and adjust your strategies as conditions change.
Failing to Take Responsibility for Your Results:
Own your successes and mistakes. This mindset empowers you to learn, grow, and improve your trading.
Being Addicted to Volatility:
While volatility can be exciting, avoid chasing it for thrills. Focus on making well-reasoned decisions based on your plan.
Not Having a Process to Keep Track of Your Performance:
Maintain detailed records of your trades and their outcomes. Analyze this data to identify patterns and refine your strategies.
Not Dealing with Your Emotional Risk:
Emotions can cloud your judgment in trading. Practice emotional intelligence and techniques like meditation or journaling to stay composed.
Neglecting Proper Research and Due Diligence:
Relying solely on tips or rumors can lead to poor decisions. Conduct thorough research and due diligence on potential trades and investments.
Overcomplicating Your Trading Strategy:
Complex strategies may not always lead to better results. Simplify your approach to focus on proven methods and avoid overanalyzing the market.
Ignoring the Importance of Continuous Learning:
The markets evolve, and so should your knowledge and strategies. Stay updated on market trends and continuously educate yourself to stay ahead.
There is no trade without a stop-loss:
This point emphasizes the importance of having a stop-loss in place before entering any trade. It highlights risk management as a fundamental part of trading, ensuring that you have a clear exit strategy to limit potential losses.
If you have to re-analyze charts after being in a trade, you might be going in the wrong direction:
This point underscores the importance of trusting your initial analysis and trading plan. It warns against second-guessing or changing your plan mid-trade, which could indicate you may be heading in the wrong direction.
By implementing these strategies, you can enhance your trading experience and improve your performance over time. Remember, successful trading is a journey that requires discipline, patience, and continuous learning.
I hope you find these insights helpful. Feel free to share your thoughts and experiences in the comments. Let's continue to support each other and grow as a community!
Happy trading!
RK💕
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Falling Knife stocks-How to identify them?I have discussed in previous post about what exactly falling knife stock is with a case study.
The next question would be how would an investor know that stock is a part of falling knife category?
To identify such stocks, I feel you should know about 2 concepts/indicators which are Moving averages and Fibonacci retracement. I will try to make you understand these concepts and also the levels where averaging/investing can be started.
1. Fibonacci(Fib) is a mathematical concept which governs the entire universe, even our stock markets. I can't explain the entire scientific concept here so just sticking to stock market.
Fib retracements help investors identify support and resistance for stock. There are 2 golden ratios which every investor must know, 38.2%(0.382) and 61.8%(0.618).
When a stock is in uptrend, 38.2% is the level where most stocks retrace upto. 61.8% is considered as last ray of hope for bounce in retracement. Any stock which has fallen below 61.8% is considered weak.
2. Moving averages(MA) are indicators which are continuously changing with moving stock market. These are an average of prices over a time period, hence Time frame is important.
There are many types of moving average, we use mostly simple and exponential.
When I say 20 Day EMA, it is Exponential average of 20 days of closing price of stock or when I say 200 week SMA, it is simple average of 200 weeks closing price.
Exponential is more used than Simple moving average which has scientific reason behind it so if you are curious, you can search for it.
200 Week moving average is considered as last ray of hope for investment. A fall below 200 Week moving average or 50 Month EMA indicates strong bearishness.
3. I have seen stocks reach from top to bottom and top again. Tata motors, HDFCAMC being few famous examples. Even, Most of real estate, PSU banks stocks are reversing. So, equity is beautiful, wild and highly unpredictable. However, A stuck investor should wait for monthly closing above 61.8% to start averaging in such stocks. Also, a closing above 200 Week EMA will slightly indicate return of bullishness and that's where reversal traders should think of investing
I feel this much knowledge is enough for now. If you have got some enlightenment from above information, lets apply this knowledge on one stock where I know many many investors are stuck, Rajesh Exports.
How do I know? I saw the shareholding pattern and that's where I was shocked to see the number of shareholders increase from 45000 odd to over 2 lakhs in the past 9 months!
Starting with fundamentals, Rajesh Exports Ltd is 4 decade old manufacturer of Gold and Gold Products available at a PE of around 9 and sales growth of 20% in last 3 years. All the ratios feel nice to me except the operating margin which is below 2% consistently which has led to drop in EPS which is major concern in the stock.
Technically, stock had a 52 week high of 1030 in Feb 2023 and it is now available at 360 odd which is more than 60% wealth destroyed. And as I said, the number of shareholders have grown 5x in the same time. (Note that FII, DII holding has reduced in same period).
If i see now from a non-investors perspective(psychology explains that investor can never see the bearishness), the stock has formed a beautiful double top and broken its neckline which was 61.8% of fib retracement all ready for a further fall and I see no support till 270-300 zone(sorry investors). It is also below 200 week moving average-red wavy line(if you check monthly chart, it is below 200 month moving average as well). A perfect example of Falling knife.
What next? If I were an investor, My last SL would have been 525 which is 50% retracement. Since, the stock is below 61.8% retracement , there is no chance of averaging at this moment. Hence, I feel investors should wait & watch until stock moves above 440 before averaging/entering. Don't jump in it. Wait for a big bullish monthly candle before averaging.
Also....
As promised,, I am sharing you names of stock which i have identified to be part of this unloved category. As an homework, do check fundamentals and reversal levels based on what we have discussed above.
The stocks are GRINFRA, TCNSClothing, Metropolis, Luxindustries, Polyplex, HLEGlasscoat, Deltacorp, Barbequenation.
If you are a curious investor, even you can find such stocks and do let me know in the comments below.
I would like to discuss any doubts regarding the concepts, idea or anything related to stock market so feel free to comment.
Keep investing, keep minting. India has a very big future ahead so these are the best few years to invest in India.Be a smart investor because it is important that you choose the right stock to meet your financial goals.
NIFTY 50 (BULLs VS BEARs) Date - 13th March 2024
Time - 10:05 AM
After seeing today's move of gap up opening and then filled the gap again.
FIXED RANGE VOLUME PROFILE
1. This Volume indicator is more useful than ordinary horizontal and time base volume indicator.
2. Its Flexible to use and you can put wherever you want to identify at that particular time who are the dominators (BULLS OR BEARS), who made that particular move in market.
3. As we can see in chart, I have put 2 Fixed range volume tools for 2 different times, in that Red Lines come out it is showing POC (Point of Control) for that selected range.
4. If Current price is below POC line than we can say Bears are in Dominance , as per current situation in Nifty 50.
5. If Price roaming above POC line means Bulls are in all over Dominance so far.
So, after using this tool we can identify within dark volume range (shown in chart) sluggish movement expected and Until Price won't break POC line and High-volume range either side strong and rational move should not expected.
Lower the volume at any particular price faster the movement we can expect.
A-Z About HEIKEN ASHI CandlesticksHEIKEN ASHI Strategy:
1.INTRODUCTION (WHY HEIKEN ASHI CANDESTICKS)
Often trading on the trend gets difficult due to price action that makes trader exit trades early. (USELESS NOISE FORMED BY TRADITIONAL CANDLES)
This mainly happens due to impact of one single candle or bar on Trader’s ability to hold positions.
Through Heiken Ashi Candles , this problem is largely solved as Price Trend is clearly represented through these.
LOOK at the difference between TRADITIONAL and HEIKEN-ASHI Candlesticks below:
A) TRADITIONAL candlestick with a lot of noise during uptrend and downtrend which confuses most of the traders and forces them to exit early
B) HEIKEN-ASHI with a smooth buttery experience while trading:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2.TYPES OF CANDLES
Let us now come to the types of Heiken Ashi candles.
In this chart, I have done 5 markings to explain the various types of candles in Heiken Ashi.
a)The wide range yellow/green candles indicates good momentum and shows the stock shall be bullish for some more days unless and until there are signs of reversals
b)The small body green/yellow candles represents the continuation of the trend although they show that the stock is not very bullish but is bullish
c)SPINNING TOP- is formed when the body of the candle is very small (NOT A DOJI) and there is wick equal on both upper and lower side.
d)The wide range red candles shows weakness in the stock
e)INDECISIVE Candles- are formed when it is neither of the above candles (small body and irregular size wicks on up and down side)
Always remember, size of body, shadows, and range of candle determines whether it Is bullish, bearish or neutral candle
Do read futhur to understand
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3) KEY RULES to follow
There are broadly 5 rules that need to be followed when trading with Heiken Ashi Candles.
DO HAVE A LOOK AT THE CANDLES SIMULTANEOUSLY
Rule 1 – Green candles with no lower shadows indicate a strong uptrend: When you spot these on charts, be in the trade and don’t think about profit booking. You might want to add to your long position and exit short positions.
Rule 2 – Candles with a small body with upper and lower shadows indicate trend change: These are indecision candles and require more confirmation.
Rule 3 – Red/Black candles with no upper shadow indicates strong a downtrend: When you spot these on charts, be in the trade and don’t think about profit booking. You might want to add to your short position and exit long positions
Rule 4 – Candles with long lower shadows represent Buying interest. Always take note of these candles and assess price action after you spot these candles.
Rule 5 – Candles with long upper shadows represent selling interest and be cautious with existing long positions if you spot such Candles.
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4) INITIATION AND CONTINUATION:
You just need to know 2 types in trend analysis
1.INITIATION CANDLE
2.CONTUATION CANDLES
1.Initiation candle is one that sets the tone of Trend and defines underlying momentum for price. This is why Initiation candles are most important in Trend Analysis and Price action trading.
2.Continuation candles are ones that reaffirm the direction of trend and are useful to increase positions in the direction of trend.
FREE TIP:
When you begin price trend analysis, always look for initiation Heiken Ashi candles and then look for continuation candles.
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5) IDENTIFYING STRONG TRENDS:
In the chart below, let us see how a strong Up/Down trend looks like.
In Heiken Ashi, we should be measuring strength of move based on Initiation Candles (Candles that represent strong trend).
If you look at the chart, all markings that I have done are that of Strong Initiation candles on the downside and upside (BUY/SELL)
When such candles are visible on the chart, invariably Price tends to move up/low. Always keep range of Candle in mind.
It should be wide with no upper/lower shadows for uptrend and downtrend respectively.
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6) COMMON MISTAKES
Most Common mistake when using Heiken Ashi Candles is to Enter or Exit Trades based on the color of Candle. Most beginners commit this mistake and this should be avoided at all times. Whether it is Heiken Ashi Candles or any other charting method, you need to understand the overall Market Trend and Context. Without this, you will find it difficult to Trade successfully over a longer period of time.(PRICE ACTION IS THE KING) This is just an additional filter like an indicator and should not be treated as the only parameter in your strategy...If trading was so easy then 90% wouldn't have lost their money in trading...Trading is like cooking you need to add the right ingredients in the right amount to taste a dish good.A pinch of salt less can ruin the entire hardword behind making the dish...Similar is trading...Will make a tutorial on risk management as well...Do let me know if you are interested only then it would be wise for me to proceed ahead.
One of the main things you have to do is to analyze which candles contribute to Trend and which do not. This effective way of filtering out relevant candles from non relevant one’s is what will help you succeed with Heiken Ashi Candles.
FREE TIP:(SAVES TIME DO READ)
Always divide your Candles into two types;
1.Candles that have impact on Trend
2.Candles that have no impact
This way, you will know which one’s to be focussed upon.
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7)DISADVANTAGES:
EVERY + HAS A - ELSE EVERY TRADER WOULD HAVE USED THIS STRATEGY TO MAKE TONS OF MONEY EVERYDAY
The one main disadvantage that most traders refer to is that by the time Traders take positions based on Heiken Ashi Candles, the entire move is already over. While there is some merit to this, it is important to note that this mainly applies to short time frame charts. On higher time frame charts (30 Min to Monthly time frame), Heiken Ashi has tremendous benefits and Traders should try and incorporate these in their Trading arsenal.
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I hope this tutorial as helpful for you to understand some basics of HEIKEN-ASHI candlesticks...There are many other types of candlesticks which have their own importance like RENKO and PnF candlesticks...Do let me know in the comments whether I should make posts on STOCKs that I Trade/EDUCATIONAL posts like this
FOLLOW me for many more such content ahead...DO hit the like button...Till then,
HAPPY TRADING :)
How to find a BREAKOUT that has a high probability of success?The probability of a breakout getting failed is much higher than it's success rate.(A STOCK AT REST TRIES TO BE AT REST AND THE ONE IN MOTION TRIES TO BE IN MOTION like NEWTON's First Law Of Motion)
But breakout trades are the most rewarding trades in stock market.
So...if there was a method to find out a high probable successful breakout then it would have been a shade better to make money in the stock market.
Here I am with a tried and tested strategy to differentiate a fake breakout and a successful one: FOLLOW the below steps:
1.Choose a stock from an up-trending sector (At present sectors like ENERGY, PSUs, REALTY, FINANCIALS AND AUTO (Just started) are examples of up-trending sectors).
The reason for choosing a sector which is up-trending is that the liquidity is high in those sectors and thus increases the chance of the breakout by one shade.
2.The stock should be above 50 week EMA and above 200 EMA on a daily time frame and RSI should be above 60 (In daily time frame)
This is the reason why HEROMOTOCORP Trade is struggling a lot as it is below EMA 200.
3.The stock should breakout from a consolidation of STAGE 1 structure.
And if the stock is in prior uptrend followed by a consolidation and then a breakout again increases the chances like the recent one in RELAXO FOOTWEARS.
4.If the stock breaks out of multiple patterns like INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS,TRIANGLE,STAGE,PARALLEL CHANNEL,TRENDLINE(The more the number of patterns being broken the better the breakout is) One example of this is TRIVENI ENGINEERING Trade that I shared
5.The breakout should be backed with high volumes (AT LEAST EXCEEDING 20 MA)
6.The closing of the breakout should be strong (NO long wicks)
One more example I have is of INDIAMART Trade that I shared applying most of the concepts discussed above.
NOTE: The above discussed method only increases the probability of a breakout to be successful as no strategy in the market gives 100% successful trades, so managing the risk is as important as the strategy and I will post a tutorial soon for this also.
FOLLOW me to stay updated as soon as I upload it here.
Till then,
HAPPY TRADING :)
Cup & Handle BreakoutCup and Handle pattern on weekly chart has formed and Breakout with high volume has occurred above the neckline. This stock has the potential to double in no time.