31 May 2024 - BankNifty stance is neutral, slightly bullish toneBankNifty was unable to break the 48947 resistance today, except for the 10.18 candle, rest 5 candles touched the 48947 resistance level. In 3 instances we went above, but could not sustain. If any of the candles closed above this level, I would have changed the stance to bullish. As of now maintaining the neutral stance with a slightly bullish tone.
All eyes are on the election exit polls today and then the actual results on June 4th. Banks and financial sectors will be the first to react to any news, rumors, or press releases. Unlike other developed markets, finances are the most important sector in our listed space.
Copy pasting my expectations for markets next week, post election results
1. 400+ seats - up 5%+
2. 270 to 399 seats - down 5 to 10%
3. less than 270 seats - down 25%
Election
Nifty: Karnataka Election results and 11 May 2023 Expiry viewNifty
- Important levels on Nifty spot for 09 May 2023
Imp levels on the upside 18343 / 18368 / 18401
Imp levels on the downside 18235 / 18208 / 18178
- Nifty rose 50 points with 0.25% rise in Open Interest. Before the Karnataka Election outcome, No signs of panic.
- Just before the Karnataka Election outcome, All 3 F&O major participants have a Net Neutral kind of position in Index Futures as well as Options overall.
Looks like Market participants would make a directional view after result outcome. Lets see whether Markets does any Natak (drama) after Karnatak Election outcome
- Prima facie, on charts, Nifty trying to respect 18196-18235 Gap zone. Till the time above it, Bulls are in control. Bears might get active only if they sense this level is going to give up.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
View on Exit PollFinally, exit polls have given some hope of stable government but considering past track record of +/- 10-15% deviation in numbers, risk to financial market has already been built up. BJP with 285+ seats and NDA with +310 seats are good for market but that should not last long as real concerns on economic slowdown will come into play. Will poll numbers behave like 2014 or 2004? Need to cross fingers till 23rd May. RBI June policy will have to be watched as how banking regulator will respond to inflationary concern, trade war and slowdown in economy. Market consensus is for 25 basis point reduction. Liquidity should be the concern till the time new govt come into power and start full fledged fiscal operation. Trump's soft stance on trade dispute with EU, Japan, Canada and Mexico is a positive move but major dispute is in between top 2 economies of the world. $ 738 billion of goods and services trade between global giants is at risk. Apart from this, Japan's capital good exports to China, Australia's commodities export to China, Korea's semiconductor and Tourism exports to China are also at risk. Crudeoil is still not cooling off from recent peaks. Skymet's prediction of below average monsoon is risk to inflation.Risk reward balance is still tilted towards risk. Investors in market should wait for clear directional close above 11900 to understand big investor's appetite for risks.