Long
Long
Long
Silver Squeeze: Breakout or Sharp Breakdown?Silver is moving inside a triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. XAGUSD is getting squeezed between resistance coming down from around 96 and support coming up from around 61. Right now, it’s trading near 73 to 74 , which is the middle of the range and not a good place to trade since there is no clear direction.
Recent price moves have been slow and messy, showing the market is still in a correction and not a strong trend.
From a wave view, this looks like a complex correction, and the triangle seems close to finishing. There could be one more move up, possibly a fake breakout, to trap buyers before price drops again.
Unless silver clearly breaks and holds above resistance, the overall view is still bearish. If the XAGUSD gets rejected from the upper area, it could fall toward 60 to 55 .
For now, expect choppy and confusing moves. It’s better to wait for confirmation instead of guessing early.
We will update further information soon! 
Long
Long
Long
XAUUSD: Intraday bullish channel supports recovery.Gold is building a short-term recovery structure after the recent sharp decline, and price is now moving inside a rising intraday channel. From Kelly’s view, the main scenario for today still leans bullish as long as gold can hold above the lower channel support and stay above the key violation area near 4,313.
The important detail is that this recovery is not fully confirmed as a broader reversal yet. It is an intraday bullish channel inside a market that still carries medium-term bearish risk.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold reacting from the lower area after the previous sell-off, then forming higher lows inside the rising channel. Price is currently trading around 4,338–4,352, with the next important resistance sitting near 4,375–4,426.
The 4,313 area is critical. If price stays above this zone, the intraday recovery structure remains valid and gold may continue pushing towards the upper channel area.
However, if price breaks below 4,313 and loses the rising channel, the bullish recovery setup weakens quickly. That would activate the alternative scenario, where the market resumes the medium-term wave 5 decline.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,313: signal-strength violation area and key invalidation level
◌ 4,338–4,352: current reaction zone
◌ 4,375–4,380: first upside resistance
◌ 4,426: strong support turned upper resistance
◌ 4,210–4,220: medium-term wave 5 downside target if the channel breaks
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current intraday structure may be developing as a recovery sequence after the previous bearish wave. The latest movement shows a possible smaller bullish structure forming inside the rising channel.
If the channel holds, gold may continue building wave 3 to wave 5 higher inside the short-term recovery path, with 4,375 first and 4,426 as the next target area.
The exception is clear. If gold breaks below 4,313, the bullish sequence loses quality. In that case, the chart may shift back into the medium-term bearish count, where wave 5 lower can continue towards the 4,210–4,220 zone.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to hold above the rising channel and confirm continuation.
Entry zone: after bullish confirmation above 4,338–4,352
Stop loss: below 4,313
Take profit 1: 4,375
Take profit 2: 4,426
Take profit 3: 4,450 if momentum expands
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,313 and closes outside the rising channel, the bullish intraday setup weakens. In that case, the medium-term wave 5 decline may be activated, with 4,210–4,220 becoming the next major downside reference.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a conditional bullish intraday setup. The rising channel is still valid, but the market must protect 4,313 to keep the recovery structure alive.
The cleaner view is not to chase price blindly. Watch whether gold can hold the channel and reclaim resistance step by step.
Gold is recovering inside the intraday channel.
But if 4,313 breaks, the medium-term wave 5 bearish scenario comes back into focus.
Share your view below. 
Long
GBP/CHF Attempts to Rise Towards Nearest ResistanceOn the 4-hour timeframe, GBPCHF is showing signs of a shift in momentum, with buyers attempting to take control of the market.
- ⚡Market Structure: The short- to medium-term trend is shifting towards a bullish accumulation phase. The price has successfully broken the previous downward structure by forming a Higher Low (HL) below, and is currently moving upward, testing the upper limit of the structure.
- ⚡Price Action: Around the current price (1.06474), the price is moving quite impulsively, dominated by healthy bullish candles. However, this movement is starting to hit the nearest Major Supply Zone (grey box above) in the 1.06600-1.06900 range. A thin upper wick is beginning to appear, indicating initial resistance from sellers in this premium area.
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Key Zones:
- ⚡Resistance/Supply: 1.06700 - 1.07000 (Main line of defense for sellers and determining the continuation of the breakout).
- ⚡Support/Demand: 1.05600 - 1.05900 (Strong demand zone that served as the initial foothold for the last upward impulse).
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✅ Elliott Wave Analysis
If we map this movement based on the Elliott wave cycle on the H4 timeframe:
- ⚡Wave Structure: The sharp recovery from the lowest price level appears to be the completion of a major corrective phase, and the market is now projected to begin a new impulsive upward cycle (Wave 1 or the beginning of a micro Wave 3).
- ⚡Current Status: Given that the price of 1.06474 is very close to the Supply resistance ceiling, this upward impulse will likely soon reach its short-term saturation point. In theory, the market will require an internal corrective wave phase (a "breathing" or pullback phase) to balance the order book before gathering new strength.
- ⚡Projection: Potential for a healthy short-term downward correction to test the Support Become Resistance (SBR) area below before readying for further upward expansion.
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The main bias for GBPCHF on the H4 timeframe is bullish.
However, tactically, for the next few candles, the next price movement is projected to move downward first (correction/pullback) towards the 1.05950-1.06150 area before eventually bouncing back to resume its uptrend. GBP/JPY Tries to Recover, But Vulnerable to PullbackGBP/JPY (Guppy) recorded a moderate recovery throughout the first half of the European session, climbing from a one-week low around 213.30.
The fundamental backdrop, filled with mixed signals, requires extra caution before making aggressive trading decisions.
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✅ Fundamental Dynamics: Global Monetary vs. Geopolitical Tug-of-War
Today's GBP/JPY movement was triggered by the confluence of three major, opposing variables:
- JPY Hawkish Pillar (Strong GDP & Wage Data): The Japanese yen gained solid support after official data confirmed that the Japanese economy grew by 0.5% in Q1 2026, exceeding market consensus forecasts.
- JPY Structural Barrier (Strait of Hormuz Energy Crisis): On the other hand, the yen's strength was limited by the fact that Japan is highly vulnerable to long-term energy supply disruptions.
- Pound Sterling Shaken by Starmer's Political Crisis: Sterling's gains from the USD's moderate weakening following the daily market reaction were offset by political turmoil in London. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government was severely shaken following the mass resignations of junior ministers. This domestic UK political uncertainty acted as a heavy anchor holding back the GBP's strengthening against other currencies.
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✅ Technical Analysis: Consolidation Phase Below the Daily Supply Area (H4)
Technically, the GBP/JPY recovery from 213.30 reflects retail short-covering, but the short-term chart structure still shows a range-bound (sideways) pattern:
- Psychological Wall (214.00): The pair needs a clean H4 candlestick close above 214.00 to convince the market that the downward correction phase is over and open the way to the 215.20 area. As long as the price remains below 214.00, any upside is at risk of sudden rejection (fading rally).
- Minimal Data Catalysts: Given that Monday is quiet with no important economic data releases from either the UK or Japan, price movements are projected to remain confined within a purely technical corridor and highly sensitive to Middle East headline risk. Chapter 2: Breaking Down Elliott Wave StructureIndex:
Chapter 1:
Chapter 2:
In the previous chapter, we learned how Elliott waves are formed, how the wave principle is used, and the psychology behind trader decisions.
Elliott Wave Structure:
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1. Bullish structure
Fig: The structure shown above represents a bullish wave cycle. It has five upward-moving waves, followed by three downward corrective waves. Altogether, the pattern is made up of 8 waves (5 upward + 3 downward).
2. Bearish Structure
Fig: The structure shown above represents a bearish wave cycle. It includes five downward-moving waves, followed by three upward corrective waves. In total, the pattern consists of 8 waves (5 downward + 3 upward).
You may have a lot of questions in your mind, but let’s clear up some common doubts about Elliott Wave Theory.
1. Elliott Wave Theory works on all time frames, from short-term charts to long-term charts.
2. The 5+3 wave structure helps traders understand market trends, trend strength, and possible reversals.
3. If applied correctly, Elliott Wave Theory can provide around 84% accuracy in market analysis.
As we know, Elliott Wave Theory is based on an 8-wave structure. It includes 5 waves in the impulse phase and 3 waves in the corrective phase. To make the wave principle easier to understand, we divide the structure into two parts: the impulse phase and the corrective phase.
Fig: This picture shows the two phases of the Elliott Wave Principle. The impulse phase has 5 waves, while the corrective phase has 3 waves. To understand the wave principle more clearly, the wave structure is divided into these two separate phases.
The Wave Principle is a method used by traders and investors to understand how the market moves. It divides the market into two main phases: the Impulse phase and the Corrective phase.
1. The Impulse phase has 5 waves that move in the direction of the main trend. In a bull market, the waves move upward, and in a bear market, they move downward. This phase shows the main strength of the market trend.
2. The Corrective phase has 3 waves that move against the main trend. In a bull market, the correction moves downward, and in a bear market, it moves upward. This phase is a temporary pullback where traders may book profits or change their positions.
By understanding these two phases, traders and investors can better identify market trends and make smarter buying or selling decisions. It also helps them understand possible future market movements.
Fig: The Elliott Wave Principle explains market trends in two phases: the motive/impulse phase and the corrective phase. The impulse phase shows the main directional movement of the market, while the corrective phase shows a temporary move against the main trend. These phases are further divided into two types of waves: impulsive waves and corrective waves.
To better understand the Elliott Wave Principle, it is important to study the impulse phase closely. Understanding its structure and wave behavior helps traders and investors spot opportunities and make better decisions.
Impulse Phase
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1. The motive or impulse phase is made up of five waves: 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.
2. These waves move in the same direction as the overall market trend.
3. Once the impulse phase ends, the corrective phase begins. Both phases are linked and appear one after the other.
4. Compared to the corrective structure, the impulse structure is usually stronger and shows greater momentum.
5. The impulse phase contains two different types of waves:
Impulse waves (1, 3, and 5): These waves move with the main trend.
Corrective waves (2 and 4): These waves move against the main trend for a short period.
This is only a simple overview, and we will understand each wave in detail later.
Impulsive waves move in the direction of the main trend and can appear in both bullish and bearish markets. In a bullish phase, they are labeled as waves 1, 3, and 5, while in a bearish phase, they are labeled as waves A and C. These waves are strong trend-forming moves driven by market momentum and trader sentiment. By identifying impulsive waves, traders can spot trends early and make better trading decisions.
Corrective waves move against the main trend and are also seen in both bullish and bearish markets. They are labeled as waves 2, 4, and B. These waves represent temporary pullbacks or pauses before the main trend continues. Corrective waves usually happen when the market tries to balance the strong movement created by impulsive waves. Recognizing these waves can help traders find better entry or exit points before the trend resumes
Fig: Waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulsive waves in an upward-trending impulse phase because they move in the direction of the trend and show upward momentum.
On the other hand, waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves because they move against the main trend. In a bearish impulse phase, these waves create temporary upward corrections against the overall downward market trend. This behavior is a normal characteristic of the motive or impulse phase in a bear market.
Fig: Waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulsive waves in a downward-trending motive/impulse phase because they move in the direction of the main trend and show downward movement.
On the other hand, waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves because their upward movement goes against the overall downward market trend. These waves represent temporary pullbacks during a bearish impulse phase.
Correction/Corrective Phase
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Key Points About the Corrective Phase:
1. The corrective phase is formed by three waves: A, B, and C.
2. This phase represents a temporary movement against the main market trend. It usually appears in a three-wave pattern known as A-B-C.
3. When the corrective phase ends, a new impulse phase begins, creating a repeating cycle in the market.
4. In a bullish market, waves A and C move in the direction of the correction (downward), while wave B moves against the correction trend (upward). This type of movement is commonly seen during market pullbacks.
Fig: Waves A and C are impulsive waves in the corrective phase because they move in the same direction as the correction trend, which is downward. Impulsive waves always follow the main trend of the phase.
On the other hand, Wave B is a corrective wave because it moves upward against the downward trend of the corrective phase.
Fig: Waves A and C are impulsive waves in the corrective phase because they move in the same direction as the correction trend, which is upward. Impulsive waves always follow the direction of the current phase trend.
On the other hand, Wave B is a corrective wave because it moves downward against the upward trend of the corrective phase.
Note: The overall market trend is bearish, so the correction phase moves upward against the main downtrend. This creates a temporary uptrend within the correction phase.
Concept of Sub-Waves
-----------------------------
A key idea in Elliott Wave Theory is that larger wave patterns are made up of smaller waves that follow the same structure. These smaller waves can be divided into even smaller waves, creating a repeating pattern across different timeframes. This concept applies to both upward impulse moves and downward corrective moves in the market.
To study market behavior, Elliott used nine time divisions, ranging from very large cycles lasting years to smaller movements seen within hours. The time divisions used can vary depending on the market and the period being analyzed.
In simple words, market movement can be broken into smaller wave patterns, and these smaller patterns combine to form bigger trends. This repeating structure helps traders understand how prices move across different timeframes.
The wave structure shows how smaller waves form inside larger waves, creating a repeating pattern across different market movements.
In the impulse phase, waves 1, 3, and 5 move in the direction of the main trend and are known as impulsive waves, while waves 2 and 4 move against the trend and act as corrective waves.
Similarly, in the corrective phase, waves A and C move in the direction of the correction and behave as impulsive waves, while wave B moves against the correction and acts as a corrective wave.
Wave 1 moves upward, which shows an impulsive trend. This means Wave 1 is made up of five smaller sub-waves that follow the same Elliott Wave structure. When we zoom in further, each of these sub-waves can also be broken down into smaller wave patterns. For example, sub-wave 1 can itself form another five-wave impulse structure.
This idea is important in trading because it helps traders understand market behavior and identify possible future price movements.
A simple way to understand this is by thinking about the ocean. The ocean is made of waves, and each wave is made of smaller ripples, while tides influence the overall movement. In the same way, financial markets move in larger trends, but these trends are made up of smaller price movements, which are further divided into even smaller movements.
By studying these smaller wave structures, traders can spot potential buying and selling opportunities and make better decisions about future market direction.
Fig: every wave 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 can be divided into smaller waves of its own. These smaller waves are usually marked with smaller numbers or letters. This creates a wave inside a wave pattern that helps traders and analysts understand market movements better and identify possible buying or selling opportunities.
Impulsive waves, which include waves 1, 3, 5, A, and C, contain a five-wave sub-structure within them. This means that each impulsive wave can be divided into five smaller waves, no matter the degree or timeframe.
On the other hand, corrective waves, which include waves 2, 4, and B, contain only a three-wave sub-structure.
This happens because impulsive waves carry stronger market momentum and move in the direction of the main trend, creating a more detailed wave structure. Corrective waves are weaker and move against the trend, so their internal structure is usually simpler.
Wave Degree:
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The Elliott Wave Theory explains that financial markets move in repeating cycles of five upward waves followed by three downward waves. These waves are grouped into different sizes, known as Elliott Wave Degrees.
The theory includes fifteen wave degrees, from the smallest to the largest. Smaller degrees, such as Miniscule, Micro, and Sub-minuette waves, are mainly used in short-term trading. Medium-sized degrees like Minuette, Minute, and Minor waves are commonly used for medium-term analysis.
Larger degrees, including Intermediate, Primary, and Cycle waves, are used for long-term market analysis. The biggest degrees, such as Super cycle and Grand Super cycle waves, can last for many years and are mostly used by long-term investors and analysts.
In the next chapter, we will learn about the basic rules of the Elliott Wave Principle.
The Hidden Logic of Elliott Waves By @BrightRally_Research on @tradingview Platform 
Education
Chapter 1: Mastering the Basics of Elliott Wave
A Simple Introduction
---------------------------
Every market moves in phases. Prices rise, fall, pause, and then move again. When you spend enough time studying charts, you begin to notice that these movements are not completely random. Certain structures appear again and again.
This idea became the foundation of the Elliott Wave Principle.
Ralph Nelson Elliott studied market behavior and found that price movement often follows repeating patterns. He believed these patterns are connected to human emotions. Fear, confidence, greed, and panic influence the decisions traders make every day, and because human behavior stays the same, market behavior also tends to repeat.
The wave principle is not simply about predicting price. It is a way of understanding how trends develop and how crowd psychology appears on a chart.
What Does “Wave” Mean in Trading?
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The word "wave" may sound confusing at first. Most traders ask the same question when they first hear about Elliott Wave Theory.
How can a market create waves?
The answer becomes clear once you start observing price movement closely.
A market never moves straight upward or straight downward for long. Price moves in swings. It pushes higher, pulls back, and then continues again. During a decline, price falls, recovers slightly, and then drops further.
These continuous swings between highs and lows create what traders call waves.
Once you understand this concept, charts begin to make much more sense.
Market Trends and Structure
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In an uptrend, the market usually forms higher highs and higher lows. Buyers remain in control, so the price continues moving upward over time.
In a downtrend, lower highs and lower lows begin to appear. Sellers gain control, and the market starts moving downward.
There are also periods when the market moves without a clear direction. During these phases, the price often remains within a range, creating sideways movement.
The Elliott Wave Principle attempts to organize all of these movements into a structured cycle.
According to the theory, trending moves usually develop in five parts, while corrective moves tend to unfold in three parts. Together, they form the well-known 5-wave and 3-wave structure.
Why Learn Elliott Wave Theory?
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There are many ways to analyze financial markets. Some traders prefer indicators, while others focus on price action, chart patterns, or volume analysis.
Elliott Wave Theory is different in that it focuses on the structure behind price movements.
Many traders use wave analysis to:
1. Understand the direction of the trend
2. Identify possible reversals
3. Separate corrections from strong trending moves
4. improve entry and exit timing
5. Build better risk management
Another reason traders value the wave principle is that it can be applied to different markets and timeframes.
The same concepts can appear on a 5-minute chart or a long-term investment chart.
Questions Traders Often Ask
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Before entering a trade, traders usually look for answers to a few important questions.
* Is the market trending or correcting?
* Is momentum becoming stronger or weaker?
* Could the current move continue further?
* Is this a good area to enter a trade, or is it better to wait?
* Wave analysis helps traders think more clearly about these situations instead of making emotional decisions.
Conclusion:
----------------
Learning Elliott Wave Theory takes time and practice. In the beginning, wave structures may seem difficult to identify, but with regular chart study, the patterns become easier to recognize.
The purpose of this book is to explain the wave principle in a practical and straightforward way so that traders can apply it more confidently in real market conditions.
In the next chapters, we will study wave structures, rules, corrections, Fibonacci relationships, and real chart examples step by step.
By @BrightRally_Research on the @TradingView platform. Gold Weakens as Trump's Rhetoric Cuts Short-Term RallyGold prices (XAU/USD) have again attracted significant selling pressure after attempting to recover to the $4,590 level during today's Asian session.
Investors' tactical moves, skeptical of the apparent de-escalation in the Middle East, combined with a strengthening US dollar (USD) supported by a hawkish monetary outlook, have cut short the rebound from the April-May low of $4,480.
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✅ Geopolitics: "Qatar Pause" vs. Pezeshkian Defensiveness
Mixed signals from the Washington-Tehran axis are keeping the market cautious:
- ⚡Trump Strike Delay: President Donald Trump confirmed that he was postponing a planned military strike against Iran at the diplomatic request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. However, Trump emphasized that negotiations are not underway and that he has instructed the US military to remain at "full strike readiness."
- ⚡Iranian Assertiveness: President Masoud Pezeshkian responded to Trump's ultimatum by asserting that Tehran will not bow to any power and will engage in dialogue based on the dignity and preservation of the nation's rights.
- ⚡Support for the DXY: This mutual intimidation keeps the geopolitical risk premium high. Investors prefer to hoard the liquid USD reserve currency over bullion, limiting the commodity rally.
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✅ Monetary: 2026 Interest Cut Speculation Officially "Extinct"
From a macroeconomic fundamental perspective, the foundation for US Dollar strength is increasingly solid:
- ⚡December Rate Hike Bets: The market has now completely ruled out the chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut for the remainder of 2026. Conversely, based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point of view rate hike at the December meeting is stable at around 40%.
- ⚡Bond Yield Pressure: Concerns about structural inflation due to energy costs and US fiscal issues keep the yield on long-dated US Treasury bonds (30-year) near its highest level since 2023. This high yield mechanically suppresses the appeal of gold, which does not provide a daily yield.
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🛠️ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, the price rejection near $4,590 confirms that market control remains under the bearish shadow:
- ⚡Least Resistance Path: Down. Failure to hold the $4,590 level indicates that any intraday price recovery will be viewed by institutions as a supply zone to open new short positions (fade the rally).
- ⚡Immediate Support ($4,520 - $4,530): This area serves as a daily defensive line before the price potentially retests the structural floor at $4,480.
- ⚡Key Resistance ($4,590 - $4,600): Gold needs a daily close above the psychological $4,600 level to break this short-term bearish bias. Short 
Hang Seng Under Pressure: Geopolitical RealityHang Seng Under Pressure: Between Beijing's Hopes and Geopolitical Reality
The Hong Kong stock market closed lower on Friday, May 15, 2026, with the Hang Seng Index falling 205 points, or 0.8%, to 26,180. This decline reflects investor caution in Asia, a stark contrast to the euphoria of record highs on Wall Street.
While the AI narrative is boosting US markets, investors in Hong Kong are more focused on geopolitical realities and the risk of energy inflation.
✅ Awaiting the Outcome of the Trump-Xi Summit
Despite optimism regarding US-China relations, traders in Hong Kong are opting for a defensive stance:
- Risk Aversion: Investors are reluctant to take aggressive positions before an official statement from Beijing on sensitive issues, including President Xi's previous threat of a "clash" over Taiwan.
- Financial & Technology Sector Weakens: Declines in giants like Tencent (-0.3%) and Kuaishou (-0.2%) indicate that the market is still awaiting clarity on cross-border regulations and further technology access.
✅ Semiconductor Sector Anomaly (SMIC: +6.2%)
Amid the index's decline, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) surged sharply:
- Chip Diplomacy Effect: This surge was a direct response to news that the US approved 10 Chinese companies to receive Nvidia's H200 chips. The market speculates that this technology de-escalation will accelerate the integration of the domestic semiconductor supply chain. 
Short
