HDFC Bank / BankNifty - The Giant Cracks & Index Melts 4000 +Disclaimer:
This is for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or products.
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Recap from 25th Sep 2024
Giant Crack Alert: BankNifty’s drop from 54,467 on 26th Sep 2024 to 50,194 by 7th Oct 2024 got its hint from the HDFC idea published on 25th Sep. When a giant like HDFC cracks, imagine the shockwaves across the entire index!
HDFC - Will it take U-Turn from 1800 — Indeed It was giant crack from 1788
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Short Term
Strong Support Zone
50900-51000 - Avoid taking any buy or long positions below 51000 . Safe Traders to Buy if Index crosses above 51356 & holds above. Risky Traders can look for buying opportunities until Index holds above 51000 or drops close to 51000
Minor Resistance
51925 - 52050 is the minor resistance zone so any bounce upside holding 51000 can halt in this zone & crossing above 52100 - It can push towards strong resistance zone 52900-53100
Strong Resistance
52900-53100
Wishing You A Happy & Prosperous Diwali 2024
From WaveTalks
Abhishek
Elliott Wave
Is VEDL Ready to Soar? Elliott Wave Analysis Suggests YesTechnical Analysis of VEDANTA LTD. (VEDL) Based on Elliott Waves
This analysis is based on Elliott Wave theory and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
Elliott Wave Analysis:
The provided chart of VEDANTA LTD. (VEDL) suggests a bullish trend based on Elliott Wave principles. The analysis identifies a potential impulse wave structure, which typically consists of five waves.
Elliott Wave Analysis Update
We're currently within Wave (3) in blue intermediate degree, with subdivisions marked as Red 1 to 5 Minor degree, Having completed Red 1 to 3, we're nearing the end of Red 4.
Key Takeaways:
1. Post-Red 4 completion, we expect an upward move to complete Red 5, targeting 1.618 Fibonacci extension (measured from Blue Wave (1).
2. Wave 5 (Red) is the final leg of Wave (3) in Blue which is of intermediate degree.
3. Overall, the outlook remains bullish.
Important Principle:
As per Elliott Wave Theory, Wave 4 cannot overlap Wave 1. This means Red 4 cannot enter the territory of Red Wave 1.
Nearest or current Invalidation Level:
If the price enters 471 (Wave 1 high), our labelled view will be negated, and we'll need to reassess the chart.
Expected Outcome:
If the invalidation level holds, our view remains intact, targeting 537 or nearby.
Actionable Insights:
- Monitor Red 4 completion
- Watch for Wave 5 unfolding
- Keep 471 as the critical invalidation level
Right Direction:
The annotation "Right Direction ↑" suggests that the overall trend is expected to be upward.
Invalidation Level:
The level of 424 is identified as an invalidation level. A break below this level would negate the bullish outlook and suggest a potential reversal.
Target:
While a specific target is not provided in the chart, a potential target for wave 3 could be around the 1.618 extension level (537.55) based on the length of wave 1. However, this is a rough estimate and subject to change based on market conditions.
Overall Outlook:
Based on the Elliott Wave analysis, VEDANTA LTD. (VEDL) appears to be in a bullish uptrend. The market is expected to continue rising, with a potential target around the 537.55 level. However, it's crucial to monitor the price action closely and be prepared to adjust the analysis if the market's behavior deviates from the expected pattern.
Remember: Elliott Wave analysis is a complex tool that requires practice and experience. It's essential to approach it with caution and always consider the potential risks involved in trading.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
#Banknifty directions and levels for October 16th.Bank Nifty Current View:
Similar to Nifty, if Bank Nifty starts with a gap-down, it may consolidate between the previous high and the downside minor demand zone (51661). This is the basic structure.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks this level solidly or consolidates around the minor demand zone (51661), then the correction is likely to continue towards the 38% Fibonacci level.
#Nifty directions and levels for October 16th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 16th.
Market Overview:
The global market is showing a moderately bearish sentiment, while our local market is following a similar trend. We anticipate a neutral to slightly gap-down opening today, with SGX Nifty indicating a negative start of -70 points as of 8 AM.
In the previous session, Nifty saw a minor correction, but Bank Nifty maintained a moderately bullish sentiment. Structurally, Nifty is in a range-bound pattern, while Bank Nifty shows a slightly bullish structure. However, with SGX Nifty indicating a negative start today, if this happens, both indices may move in a range-bound structure. Let's explain this further in the charts.
Nifty Current View:
If the market starts with a gap-down, then the immediate support level (24983) will act as strong support. If the market finds support there, it could take a minimum pullback of 38% to 61% of the minor swing, likely continuing the same range-bound movement. This is the basic structure.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks this level solidly or consolidates at that level, the correction is likely to continue towards 24882.
Technical Analysis - Elliott Waves of SBINThis analysis is based on Elliott Wave theory and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
Key Observations:
Ascending Diagonal Triangle: The price action appears to be forming an ascending diagonal triangle pattern, suggesting a potential bullish breakout.
Wave Structure: The current price movement could be interpreted as an impulse wave, with a strong possibility of a fifth wave extension.
Invalidation Level: The 732.00 level acts as a critical invalidation point. A break below this level would negate the bullish outlook.
Potential Target: A breakout above the triangle's upper boundary could lead to a significant price increase, with a potential projection around the 920.00 level and more
Overall Outlook:
The technical analysis based on Elliott Waves suggests a bullish bias for SBIN. However, it's essential to monitor the price action closely and be prepared to adjust the analysis if the market's behaviour deviates from the expected pattern.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
#nifty directions and levels for October 14th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 14th.
Market Overview:
There have been no significant changes in the global or local markets. The global market is showing a bullish sentiment, while our local market has a moderately bearish trend. We anticipate a neutral to slightly gap-up opening today, with SGX Nifty indicating a positive +10 points as of 8 AM.
In the previous session, Nifty closed with consolidation, while Bank Nifty experienced a minor correction. However, structurally, both are in a range-bound phase. Trading in a range market can be difficult as we may not see clear movement, direction, or option premium. However, if you’re looking to trade, we can consider a breakout entry, which I'll explain in the charts.
Nifty:
> If the market breaks either above 25,040 or below 24,897, we can enter a breakout trade. Target levels are 25,167 on the upside and 24,810 on the downside.
> It is important to note that after a breakout, if the market experiences gradual movements or rejects the immediate support or resistance level, it is likely to close at the same level as it opened today.
> On the other hand, if the market consolidates around the immediate support or resistance level after the breakout, the direction is likely to continue.
#Banknifty directions and levels for October 14th.Bank Nifty:
Bank Nifty is also in a range-bound market. However, the current view suggests that if the market opens with a gap-up or breaks the immediate resistance, we can expect a move towards 51,520. after that, If it rejects at that level, the range-bound market will likely continue. On the other hand, if it consolidates or breaks through, we can expect a rally continuation.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the market opens negatively, we may see a gradual move towards 50,806. If that happens, we can expect a solid bounce back if the market rejects that level. On the other hand, if the decline forms a solid structure and consolidates around the MDZ, the correction is likely to continue.
NIFTY - Elliott Wave Outlook
Timeframe: Weekly
NSE NIFTY began an impulsive move after hitting a low of 15183.4 . Based on the wave count, the price completed wave (5) of wave (3) at 26277.3 and has since started to decline. The price is currently in a wave (4) correction phase. Let’s switch to the daily timeframe for a closer look at the details.
Timeframe: Daily
On the daily chart with a neckline at 24,750 , we’re observing a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern forming. If the price breaks below this neckline, Nifty could drop significantly, potentially reaching the demand zone or surge point of the pattern. However, if the price fails to break this neckline, it indicates weakness in the bearish momentum, signaling a possible reversal
According to the Elliott Wave Principle, if wave 5 is an extended wave, the correction often occurs near sub-wave 2 of the previous impulse, especially if it falls below sub-wave 4. So, 24,570 will be a crucial level for Nifty. We can expect the price to move up by no more than 126% of wave A within the correction. Otherwise, there’s a risk of mistaking wave B for wave 3.
Whatever scenario Nifty chooses, it’s better to let Nifty commit to a clear direction before we commit to the market.
We will update further information soon.
Nifty50 Index: Analysis of Potential Next LevelsIf you closely observe the daily chart for the Nifty50 Index, you’ll notice that Nifty is currently at a long-term support level. Considering the selling pressure and the recent closing candle at this support, Nifty appears set to complete its corrective move towards the 25,400-25,500 range. Following this, there is a possibility that Nifty may fall below 25,000, reaching the next support level around 24,400, which aligns with the lower boundary of a larger channel.
This movement aligns with a historical pattern where, at the end of each year, particularly during October-November, the market tends to correct significantly before rallying by 10-15% until February-March.
Another factor influencing this scenario is the expected year-end behavior of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Historically, FIIs book profits and take extended vacations around Christmas. For this reason, they tend to seek better price points to invest significant sums before the year-end, and a market correction provides the opportunity to buy at more favorable levels.
Your thoughts and feedback are welcome, as they will help me improve my analysis. Thank you, and let's stay prepared for what lies ahead!
ETH will significantly outperform BTC through 2025ETH/BTC is at a crucial inflection point and may be about to reverse, giving ETH an opportunity to outperform BTC significantly from now through end 2025.
Points to support this argument from the weekly ETH/BTC Chart:
1. Support line since Jan 2020 is being tested (pink). If this holds, a bounce and reversal is possible
2. The impulse wave that started in Jan 2020 topped in December 2021 (orange 1 on chart) and has been in a correction Wave 2 since then. This Wave 2 has been a clean ABC correction (end points labeled in blue).
3. The Wave 2 pullback is currently between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fib level and this may be a confluence with the Support Line since Jan 2020 (see point 1), offering a confirmation of a reversal
4. It is way below the 200 DMA (yellow line) and the 200 WMA (orange line) and reversion to mean may be next
Taken together, these build a solid case for a reversal of the ETH/BTC trend. If this reversal occurs, completing Wave 3 means ETH will significantly outperform BTC through end of 2025. Only if this pink support line since Jan 2020 is converted to support first. Interesting times.
#nifty directions and levels for October 11th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 11th.
Market Overview:
There have been no significant changes in the global or local markets. The global market is displaying a bullish sentiment, while our local market is showing a moderately bearish trend. A neutral to slightly gap-down opening is anticipated today, with SGX Nifty indicating a negative -20 points as of 8 AM.
In the previous session, Nifty consolidated while Bank Nifty saw a solid upward move; however, it closed near the previous day’s high. Structurally, both indices differ, but sentiment suggests that major movements are slowing down. so If the market opens neutral, it may consolidate between nearby support and resistance levels. After that, if a breakout occurs, we can follow the direction—whether to the upside or downside. This is our primary direction for today. Let’s take a closer look at the charts.
Nifty Current View:
If the market starts neutral or negative, it may find support around 24,924 to 24,900. If support is found, Nifty could consolidate between 24,924 and 25,001 on the upside. After this, if the range breaks, we can follow the direction, whether it’s to the upside or downside. This is our first variation.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks or consolidates around the immediate support level (24,924), the correction may continue, reaching at least 78% to the downside.
#banknifty directions and levels for October 11th.Bank Nifty Current View:
The sentiment is similar to Nifty. If the market starts neutral or negative, it may consolidate between minor 38% and the upside level of 51,812. After this, if a breakout occurs, we can follow the direction, whether to the upside or downside. This is our first variation.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks or consolidates around the immediate support level (minor 38%), the correction may continue towards 51,065 to 50,806 on the downside.
#nifty directions and levels for October 10th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 10th.
Market Overview:
The global market is displaying bullish sentiment, while our local market shows a moderately bearish trend. A gap-up opening is anticipated today, with SGX Nifty indicating an increase of approximately +110 points as of 8 AM.
In the last session, we saw a lot of movement due to the RBI policy. The market is still somewhat weak overall, but the Gift Nifty is showing a positive start with around +100 points gap-up. This is because of global factors, like the Dow Jones going up strongly after the FOMC minutes. Gift Nifty also reacted to this.
What should we do with this sentiment? We should wait for a breakout in a certain range. If the market breaks this range, we can follow that direction because of the mixed local and global factors. I'll explain this more clearly in the charts.
Nifty and Bank Nifty have similar chart patterns.
Nifty Current View:
The current view suggests that if the gap-up doesn't sustain or the market rejects near the immediate resistance level of 25,173, then the correction may likely continue with a minimum downside of 78%. However, one additional confirmation is needed: after rejection, the market should break the lower trendline or the previous day's closing candle.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the gap-up sustains, the market may consolidate around the 25,173 level. After consolidation, if this level is broken, we can expect the pullback to continue, targeting a minimum upside level of 25,272 to 78%.
#banknifty directions and levels for October 10th.Bank Nifty Current View:
Similar to Nifty, if the gap-up doesn't sustain or the market rejects near the immediate resistance level of 51,535, the correction may likely continue with a minimum downside of 78%. Again, confirmation is needed: after rejection, the market should break the lower trendline or the previous day's closing candle. This is our first variation.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the gap-up sustains, the market could reach the 51,535 level. After that, if the market consolidates or breaks this level, we can expect the pullback to continue, targeting a minimum upside level of 51,812 to 51,895. This forms our alternate variation.
Morning Star at several Fib clusters in HINDPETRO Wave C of Flat correction has fulfilled the rule of equality (Wave A and Wave C are equal).
There is also a Fib level of fib retracement of the previous impulse at this level.
We can also see the Morning Star pattern forming at this cluster.
This suggests a high probability of a buy trade in HINDPETRO .
Stop-loss for this trade can be put below 61.8%, i.e., around 360 level.
This analysis is for educational purposes only.
#nifty directions and levels for October 9th."Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 9th.
Market Overview:
The global market is still maintaining a moderately bullish sentiment, while our local market shows a moderately bearish trend. A neutral to gap-up opening is expected today, with SGX Nifty indicating a positive move of around +20 points as of 8 AM.
Today, we have a major event: the RBI monetary policy announcement. This means the market is likely to move based on this data, which will be released around 10 AM. Therefore, technical analysis may not play a significant role today.
However, structurally, both the Nifty and Bank Nifty remain in a bearish bias since they haven't broken the 38% Fibonacci level in the overall correction. So, if the market rejects the key resistance level, we can expect the correction to continue."
#banknifty directions and levels for October 9th.Today, we have a major event: the RBI monetary policy announcement. This means the market is likely to move based on this data, which will be released around 10 AM. Therefore, technical analysis may not play a significant role today.
However, structurally, both the Nifty and Bank Nifty remain in a bearish bias since they haven't broken the 38% Fibonacci level in the overall correction. So, if the market rejects the key resistance level, we can expect the correction to continue.