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Elliott Wave

NIFTY’s Y-Wave: Sideways Coil Before a Drop?From the high of 25,669.35, NIFTY has been correcting in a WXY pattern. After completing Wave W and topping out at 25,587.50 as Wave X, the index began its Y leg with a sharp drop to 25,384.35 — likely Wave A of Y. Price action since then is showing early signs of a contracting triangle on the 1-minute chart, possibly Wave B of Y. If valid, a breakdown from this structure would mark the beginning of Wave C, with a support zone between 25,317 and 25,222 acting as a likely target area. With the US markets shut on 4th July and a weekend ahead, price may continue coiling within this triangle a bit longer before resolving . This triangle setup remains valid as long as price stays below 25,448.60. A move above that level would invalidate the count and point to further complexity. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WaveXplorer
LIC Housing: A Correction That Refuses to End?After completing the first upward leg from the March low near 483.70, LIC Housing Finance rallied sharply to 623.90. This rise is being marked as wave 1 or A, depending on whether the structure develops into an impulse or a zigzag. After that peak, a correction was expected. Initially, price dropped to 565.40 in a clear abc formation, which could have marked the end of wave 2 or B. However, the market didn’t follow through with a strong rally. Instead, price began moving sideways in a choppy, overlapping manner — a strong clue that the correction wasn’t over. This overlapping price action evolved into a WXYXZ structure, a complex form of correction. Here’s how the structure now looks: The initial drop to 565.40 is being treated as wave a of a larger correction. The sideways consolidation that followed is marked as wave b. The current expectation is for a final wave c down — which would complete the full abc correction of a higher degree, labeled as wave 2 or B. The ideal target zone for wave c lies between 1x to 1.618x the length of wave a, projected from the end of wave b. Support lies in the 568.80–532.65 zone. If price dips into this area and shows signs of reversal — particularly with bullish divergence on RSI — it could set the stage for the next leg higher in wave 3 or C. The invalidation level for this count stands at 627.30. A sustained move above this level would negate the possibility of a wave c decline and instead suggest that a new impulsive leg has already begun. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:LICHSGFINShort
by WaveXplorer
5
Bajaj Auto: Wave 4 Triangle Nearing CompletionAfter completing a complex W-X-Y-X-Z correction earlier this year, Bajaj Auto appears to have started a fresh impulsive rally. The move from 7,089 to 9,004 looks like a 5-wave structure in progress, with the chart now suggesting Wave 4 is unfolding as a contracting triangle. Wave E of the triangle seems close to completion near the lower boundary. SMA100 is aligned with this support zone, potentially offering additional footing for price. The Fibonacci retracement zone (Wave 1–3) lies between 8,046 and 8,273. RSI is stabilizing, indicating that downside momentum is weakening. A breakout from the triangle could signal the start of Wave 5. Key level to watch: Invalidation at 7,612 — a break below this would invalidate the current bullish setup. Note: This chart is part of my ongoing series where I aim to annotate and study as many NIFTY-listed stocks as possible using Elliott Wave principles and simple technical tools. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:BAJAJ_AUTOLong
by WaveXplorer
2
TATA CONSUMER — The Calm Before Wave 5TATA Consumer has completed a textbook corrective structure from its recent high of 1180.50. The entire correction unfolded as an ABC zigzag, neatly contained within a falling channel. Within wave C of this zigzag, price action formed an ending diagonal, with wave 4 overlapping wave 1—confirming the diagonal structure and marking the completion of higher-degree wave 4 at 1059. This 1059 level also becomes the key invalidation point for the current bullish outlook. Following this, price broke out impulsively to 1150, forming what appears to be wave 1 of the next leg higher—wave 5. The current pullback is likely wave 2 of 5, and as per Elliott Wave rules, it must remain above 1059 to keep this count valid. Wave 5 targets are projected using a 100% extension of wave 1 from the end of wave 4, which gives a potential upside zone around 1250.90. This forms the ideal target range if the wave count unfolds as expected. The targets could as well extend to 1.618x of wave 1. From a higher-degree perspective, since wave 4 overlaps with wave 1 (at 1075), the entire advance is best seen as a leading diagonal. This pattern often appears as the first wave of a new impulse, reinforcing the view that one more leg higher is likely to complete wave 5 and mark the end of wave 1 or A of a larger degree. RSI had peaked near 70 during subwave 1 of 5 and has now cooled to the 40s, which aligns well with a wave 2 retracement. Earlier, RSI had dipped closer to oversold levels at the Wave 4 low, adding further support to the case for a completed correction. Conclusion: We are in prime low-risk, high-reward territory. Setup is textbook Elliott bullish continuation — tight invalidation and defined structure. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not investment advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.
NSE:TATACONSUMLong
by WaveXplorer
OFSS: Setting Up for a Relief Rally?🔍 Introduction This analysis starts from the 1-hour timeframe, where price action shows signs of exhaustion at the tail end of a 5-wave decline. A classic ending diagonal in wave c, along with bullish RSI divergence, points toward a potential short-term reversal — possibly the start of Wave B in a larger A-B-C corrective structure. We then zoom out to place this setup within a broader W-X-Y correction that began from the 13,220 high. 🕐 1H Chart: Ending Diagonal + RSI Divergence into Key Zone Following the peak at 9775, price has been declining in what appears to be a ABC zigzag correction. Subwave 5 (within wave c) exhibits ending diagonal behavior, with overlapping internals and weakening thrust. Importantly, RSI has been printing higher lows, diverging strongly against lower price lows — a signal of potential bottoming. Price is also testing the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. A decisive breakout above the upper trendline would confirm a likely transition into Wave B. 🟢 Watching closely for a decisive breakout / close above the channel. 📆 Daily Chart: W-X-Y Structure from 13,220 High Zooming out, ORACLE FIN SERV is unfolding a W-X-Y correction from its 13,220 high: Wave W completed as a zigzag down to 7038. Wave X unfolded as a zigzag rally, peaking at 9775. Notably, Wave C of X did not reach 100% of Wave A — signaling internal weakness. Wave Y is now developing as a red A-B-C structure, with Wave A possibly ending near the 8930 level. 🧠 Conclusion & Key Levels to Watch Wave A of Y appears to be nearing completion, supported by: Ending diagonal structure in wave C (1H) RSI bullish divergence Price stalling at 1.618 extension A breakout above the channel could mark the start of Wave B — potentially retracing 38–61.8% of the drop from 9775 📌 This setup offers both short-term and structural clues. I’ll post follow-ups as this unfolds. ⚠️ Disclaimer This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
NSE:OFSSLong
by WaveXplorer
Bank Nifty Weekly Analysis for June 30, - 04, July - 2025The Bank Nifty index, as of June 28, 2025, shows a bullish outlook based on recent market data and technical analysis, though traders should remain cautious due to potential volatility and resistance levels. Here's a detailed analysis for today: Market Performance and Sentiment Recent Performance: The Nifty Bank index closed at 57,443.90 on June 27, 2025, with a gain of 237.20 points (+0.41%), indicating continued bullish momentum. The index has been trading near its 52-week high of 57,475.40, reflecting strong sectoral leadership. Posts on X suggest that Bank Nifty has outperformed the Nifty 50, which is 2.5% below its all-time high, with a target of 59,000. Market Sentiment: Positive global cues, including a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, falling crude oil prices, and dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, have boosted risk appetite, supporting the banking sector's rally. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net buyers for four consecutive months, further fueling bullish sentiment. However, significant open interest (OI) buildup in the last two days suggests potential for abnormal volatility in the near term. ~~~ Technical Analysis ~~~ Current Levels and Trends: The index is closing at around 57,443.90, with a gain of 0.41%. The advance/decline ratio is positive at 8:4, indicating broader participation in the uptrend. The index is trading above key exponential moving averages (20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs), confirming a strong upward trend on the weekly timeframe. # Support and Resistance: Support: Strong support is noted around 57,000, which has held well in recent sessions. A break below this could drag the index to 56,400–56,000. Additional support lies at 55,500, a critical level for maintaining bullish bias. Resistance: Immediate resistance is at 57,500–57,800. A decisive break above 57,800 could push the index toward 58,000–58,400. Call options at 56,500 and 57,000 show significant open interest, reinforcing these as key resistance levels. Technical Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe is at 67.31, showing a reversal toward the upside, indicating strengthening momentum. However, a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart remains unresolved, suggesting a potential correction toward 52,000 if the bullish structure weakens. -- Bullish trend, next target 61,000 if we break and close above 57,800 on weekly timeframe -- Chart for reference. - Disclaimer -- This analysis is based on recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources. It is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before trading. #Boost and comment will be highly appreciated
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by renderwithme
Ola Electric: Charging Toward a Bottom or Just Burning Out?From the darling of India’s EV⚡️revolution to a stock that's lost nearly 70% of its value, Ola Electric Mobility Ltd has had quite the ride — and not the smooth kind. But with price approaching critical technical levels and management throwing around words like “EBITDA breakeven,” a big question looms: Is Ola Electric bottoming out — or is more pain on the road ahead? 📉 The Rise... and the Faceplant Launched in 2017 with bold ambition, Ola Electric quickly captured market share, becoming India’s #1 e-scooter maker with a commanding 31% grip on the E2W sector. The hype translated to a stock price that once touched ₹158. Now? It’s chilling at ₹43, down over 70%, and recently hit an intraday low of ₹43.16 after a 6.3% drop on June 23. What triggered that? ➡️ Block deal worth ₹107 Cr — 2.41 Cr shares changed hands at ₹44. ➡️ Earlier this month: ₹731 Cr block trade — Hyundai Motor Company exited. That’s some heavy institutional shuffling. 📉 Technicals: A Reversal Setup Brewing? Ola’s chart paints a classic A-B-C Zigzag correction, with Wave C still unfolding. The final leg could be nearing completion based on these clues: ✅ C wave targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension — a textbook end zone ✅ Daily RSI showing bullish divergence — a sign of momentum loss in selling ⚠️ But price is still ~60% above that extension level (~₹15.29), so caution reigns “Ola’s plunge has brought it into its final support shelf. The real question: will demand step in near the 1.618 extension — or even earlier?” We’re seeing divergence whispering potential — but the big move is still loading. 🔍 Fundamentals: Great Product, Brutal Numbers Let’s not sugarcoat it — the financials are as ugly as the technicals are hopeful. Net loss (FY25) : ₹-2,276 Cr Revenue YoY : Down 62% ROE : -108% | ROCE : -28.1% EPS : -₹5.16 P/B Ratio : 3.7 (expensive for a loss-making firm) On the bright side: ✅ Debt has been reduced ✅ Guidance says: ₹800–850 Cr revenue + margin expansion + Roadster rollout Optimism? Sure. Execution? TBD. 👀 Sentiment Shift or Smart Exit? Public holding rose to 52.14% in Mar 2025. Meanwhile, Hyundai just noped out with ₹731 Cr worth of shares. FII & DII stakes are falling. This leaves retail holding the EV bag — again. ⚖️ The Two-Sided Story 🟢 Bull Case Strong brand, dominant market share Reversal signals flashing technically Management optimism around margin turnaround 🔴 Bear Case Fundamentals still bleeding RSI divergence coming too early Major support (~₹15) still distant 🛑 Final Thoughts Ola Electric is approaching a key decision point — for the stock and the company. Technically, a reversal setup is forming. Fundamentally, the story still needs a lot of work. If buyers show up before ₹15.29, this could be a rebound play. If not, we may just be coasting toward another breakdown. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:OLAELEC
by WaveXplorer
2
TATA TECH: Messy But Intentional — Diagonal at Work?After tagging the all-time low at 597, price started a steady climb. The structure unfolding looks like a potential leading diagonal, not a typical impulsive sprint. Wave 1 pushes up to 731.75, followed by a sharp drop to 640 — a classic deep Wave 2, but still holding above the origin. From there, Wave 3 stretches to 777.4, slightly longer than Wave 1, keeping things in check. Then comes the messy drop — choppy, overlapping, three-legged, as Wave 4 of a diagonal. It lands right into the golden retracement zone, finding support between 0.5 and 0.786. Now the price is bouncing back and is above 715, nudging towards the upper channel. If it sustains, Wave 5 could unfold next, aiming to breach the 797 high. But — and this is crucial — if price falls below 640, this structure breaks down. That would kill the diagonal count and force a rework. RSI is curling up from oversold, hinting at renewed strength. Price, structure, and momentum — all are beginning to align. Let's see how the price strcuture unfolds in the coming week.
NSE:TATATECHLong
by WaveXplorer
Bitcoin - Interesting Price Action in 1 HTFTRADERS AND INVESTORS, The Bitcoin chart presents an interesting setup on the 1-hour timeframe (1 HTF). Here's a breakdown of recent price action: Initial Resistance & Downtrend : Bitcoin's chart indicated potential trend changes, with significant selling pressure at the $106,000 mark establishing a clear resistance level. Downtrend Confirmation & Support : This was followed by a series of lower highs, confirming a downtrend. Subsequently, Bitcoin found support and bounced from the $98,000 level. Potential Reversal Signal : The recent upward movement cleared sellers' stop-losses, which could be an early indication of a potential trend reversal. WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN NEXT? Currently, Bitcoin is re-testing the crucial $106,000 resistance level. Bullish Scenario : A confirmed breakout and sustained move above $106,000 could signal the continuation of an uptrend. Bearish Scenario : Conversely, a strong rejection from this level might lead to a decline, potentially targeting the $101,000 support. Current Stance : At present, this area appears to be a no-trade zone due to the indecisive price action. Disclaimer : This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Trader_Saurav
Natural Gas Futures: Triangle Breakout and New Impulse UnfoldingNatural Gas Futures (MCX) is showing an interesting Elliott Wave structure unfolding. After completing a corrective Y wave near 133.6, prices started a well-defined impulsive advance. The initial advance took shape as a 5-wave structure (yellow degree), completing wave 1 at 261.2, followed by a healthy correction into wave 2 at 156.7. The subsequent rally carved out another 5-wave pattern (green degree), pushing prices toward 407.8, marking a likely completion of wave 3. The corrective wave 4 unfolded as a typical contracting triangle (ABCDE), finding support around 297.3. This triangle structure respected the Elliott guidelines quite well and indicates a potential setup for the next impulsive leg higher. Post-triangle, the initial move up to 359.2 can be counted as wave i of the next larger impulse. The ongoing retracement has pulled back close to 61.8%–78.6% Fibonacci levels, a common zone for wave ii corrections. The RSI continues to print higher lows, supporting the underlying bullish sequence. The invalidation zone is clearly marked around 297.3. As long as price remains above this level, the possibility of an ongoing bullish impulse remains valid, with eventual targets extending much higher toward the 1.618 projection zone near 503. This remains a developing wave count, with structure still unfolding. Monitoring how price reacts around current levels will provide further clues whether the larger bullish sequence resumes or deeper correction emerges. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Long
by WaveXplorer
Bank Nifty Weekly Analysis for June 24 –June 28 June , 2025~~ Technical Outlook ~~ Current Trend: The Nifty Bank Index is in a positive trend, with a closing value of 56,252.85 on June 20, 2025, reflecting a 1.22% gain. The index has entered a bullish phase in the last trading session, supported by strong buying in key constituents like HDFC Bank (+1.44%), ICICI Bank (+1.07%), Canara Bank (+2.25%), and Federal Bank (+1.62%). #Support and Resistance Levels: Support: Immediate support lies at 55,781, followed by 55,308 and 54,726. A critical long-term support is around 51,500; a break below 51,000 could signal weakness. Resistance: Resistance is seen at 56,900, with potential upside targets at 56,600, 57,000, and a new all-time high around 57,267–57,500 if momentum sustains. the Long-term Target is around 60,500 !! Market Sentiment Domestic and Institutional Activity: Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have been strong buyers, purchasing ₹8,207 crore on June 18, while Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers with ₹1,482 crore, indicating robust domestic support. Sectoral Performance: The banking sector led gains, with 11 of 12 constituents in the green on June 20. Private banks like HDFC and ICICI Bank limited downside pressure, while public sector banks (PSU Banks) showed relative weakness, with the Nifty PSU Bank Index down 0.9% on June 16. # Due to geopolitical tension, the market may be sideways or volatile. -- Disclaimer -- This analysis is based on recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources. It is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before trading. #Boost and comment will be highly appreciated
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by renderwithme