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AUDUSD rebound remains elusive below 0.7500AUDUSD keeps the bounce off 200-SMA despite mixed jobs report as market sentiment improves during early Thursday in Asia. However, a convergence of the 100-SMA and one-week-old horizontal resistance, around 0.7500, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. In a case where the pair rises past the 0.7500 hurdle, 0.7540 and 0.7580 may act as intermediate challenges for the buyers before fueling the quote towards the monthly high of 0.7660. On the contrary, a clear downside break of the 200-SMA, near 0.7400 by the press time, will allow AUDUSD sellers to aim for an upward sloping support line from February, near the 0.7300 round figure. During the fall, the early March swing high near 0.7365 may act as a buffer. That said, the pair’s sustained declines past 0.7300 won’t hesitate to challenge the previous monthly low near 0.7165. It’s worth noting that a clear bounce off the key moving average joins firmer RSI and bullish MACD signals to keep short-term buyers hopeful.
by MTradingGlobal
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AUDUSD eyes further gains on upbeat sentiment, Aussie employmentAUDUSD justifies its risk-barometer status, also backed by an upbeat Aussie jobs report for January, during Thursday. The Aussie pair stays above the 50-DMA amid upbeat RSI and MACD conditions, suggesting further advances. However, the 100-DMA and a downward sloping trend line from mid-November 2021, around 0.7240-45, becomes a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. Should the quote manage to cross the 0.7245 hurdle, January’s peak of 0.7313 will test the upside momentum before confirming the bullish trend towards the late 2021 high surrounding 0.7555. Meanwhile, the 50-DMA level of 0.7170, the 0.7100 round figure and the weekly bottom of 0.7085 restrict the short-term downside of the AUDUSD pair. Following that, 0.7050 and December 2021 low near 0.6990 will question the bears before directing them to the last month’s trough close to 0.6965. It’s worth noting that the RSI conditions may turn oversold and trigger the pair’s bounce off 0.6965, failing to do so will make the quote vulnerable to drop towards June 2020 swing low close to 0.6775.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bears look for entries with eyes on UK employment dataHaving reversed from the late October tops, GBPUSD pokes the key support lines around the mid-1.3600s. Given the receding bullish bias of the MACD and RSI retreat, the prices are likely to decline further. However, the UK employment data will be crucial to watch for clear direction. Should the cable pair stays below the stated 1.3650 support, odds of its gradual declines toward the 100-SMA level of 1.3540 and then to the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.3400 can’t be ruled. However, a horizontal line surrounding 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of December-January upside, near 1.3370, will be a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers afterward. Meanwhile, the 1.3700 and the recent tops around 1.3750 act as nearby resistances to watch during the pair’s fresh advances. Should the quote rises past 1.3750, tops marked during October and September 2021, respectively around 1.3835 and 1.3915, will challenge the GBPUSD buyers ahead of directing them to the July 2021 peak of 1.3982. During the quote’s advances past 1.3982, the 1.4000 threshold will be crucial to watch for further upside. To sum up, GBPUSD sellers await a clear signal for fresh entries from technical, as well as fundamentals.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD fakes falling wedge ahead of UK employment dataGBPUSD’s corrective pullback from the yearly low confirmed a five-week-old falling wedge bullish chart pattern before dropping back to the stated bullish pattern’s resistance line as the pair traders await the UK employment report for November. Should the jobs report trigger the pair’s bounce, the late October peaks past 1.3800 are likely theoretical targets. However, 100 and 200 SMAs, respectively around 1.3310 and 1.3430, will test short-term bulls. Following that, late November’s swing high and the last monthly top, near 1.3515 and 1.3700 in that order, can probe the run-up. Meanwhile, a downside break of the stated wedge’s upper line, close to 1.3200, will defy the bullish breakout and direct GBPUSD bears towards the 2021 bottom close to 1.3160. In a case where the cable sellers refrain from stepping back, the December 2020 low of 1.3134 and the 1.3100 will be in focus. To sum up, the pair’s declines from late October seem to have been overdone and the latest falling wedge breakout is a call to buyers during the key week comprising Fed and BOE rate decisions.
by MTradingGlobal
Technical Analysis: EURUSD is well-set for 1.1500 on NFP dayHaving failed to sustain the early October bounce, EURUSD bears are on the way to testing the March 2020 high near the 1.1500 threshold on the day of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. It should be noted, though, that the lower line of a five-month-old falling wedge, around 1.1450 at the latest, will take the help of the RSI conditions to rebound. Hence, the pair bears are in full swing but the room to the downside is limited. Alternatively, recovery moves remain unimportant before crossing a convergence of the 50-DMA and the wedge’s upper line, around 1.1685. A daily closing beyond the same will confirm a bullish chart formation, suggesting an upswing towards a theoretical target surrounding 1.2300. However, tops marked during September and late June, respectively around 1.1910 and 1.1980, as well as the 1.2000 psychological magnet, will offer intermediate halts.
by MTradingGlobal
Markets eye US, Canadian job data The Canadian dollar is steady in Friday trade, after sustaining considerable losses a day earlier. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2118, up 0.11% on the day. The US dollar was broadly higher on Thursday, as the Fed surprised the markets when it announced that it will begin to scale back its portfolio. The Fed ended its purchase of corporate bonds in 2020, and will now gradually sell these assets. The Fed has taken pains to emphasise that this sale is not a monetary policy action, as it does not affect the purchase of government bonds. The latter is intended to improve economic conditions and keep borrowing costs at ultra-low levels. Still, this most recent move has boosted the US dollar, as it appears to signal a move towards tapering QE and potentially raising interest rates. More Fed members are coming out and publicly urging the Fed to hold a discussion about tapering, and this has investors keeping a sharp eye on inflation and employment figures, which could be instrumental in any Fed decision with regard to tapering. The market will quickly shift focus from the Fed to the US employment report (12:e30 GMT). The consensus stands at 644 thousand, which would be a strong acceleration from the April release of 266 thousand. However, the markets are well aware that recent forecasts for NFP have been wide of the mark, including the April reading, as the consensus was 990 thousand. This week's ADP Employment Report showed a gain of 978 thousand, crushing the estimate of 645 thousand. However, the APDP reading is not a reliable indication of how official nonfarm payrolls will perform. Canada will also release key job data (12:30 GMT), with the market expecting soft numbers. April was dismal, as the economy shed 207.1 thousand jobs. May is expected to show a small decline of 20.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 8.2%, down from 8.1% USD/CAD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.2137. This line was tested last week. This is followed by resistance at 1.2195. With the pair moving higher, 1.2025 has some breathing room as support. Below, there is support at 1.1971
by OANDA
CAD powers higher, all eyes on NFPThe Canadian dollar has posted slight losses on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2176, up 0.22% on the day. The Canadian currency continues to head higher. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar sparkled, gaining 0.95%, its highest 1-day gain in 2021. USD/CAD fell 2.15% in April and is down 0.95% so far in May, as the Canadian dollar is trading at its highest level since September 2017. Canada has a commodity-based economy, and this week's rally in oil prices has lifted the Canadian dollar. As well, copper is trading at an all-time high, and Canada is one of the world's major copper producers. A stronger global demand for commodities bodes well for the Canadian dollar. All eyes will be on US nonfarm payrolls for April, which will be released on Friday (12:30 GMT). The ADP Employment Report is not considered a reliable gauge for the official NFP, but investors couldn't help notice that the ADP reading jumped to 742 thousand, up from 514 thousand. Nonfarm payrolls climbed to 916 thousand in March and with a forecast of 990 thousand, a reading above the symbolic one-million mark is certainly within reach. If nonfarm payrolls outperforms, it would be another signal that the US economy is well on the road to recovery. Canada will also release key employment numbers on Friday (12:30 GMT). However, unlike the US, the consensus is for a dismal release for April. The economy produced some 303 thousand new jobs in March, but investors are bracing for a sharp downturn in April, with a forecast of -160 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.8%, up from the current 7.5%. If the readings fall within expectations, the Canadian dollar's party this week could come to an end. On the upside, there is resistance at 1.2435 and 1.2575. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.2210. Below, there is support at 1.2125
by OANDA
USDCAD eyes Canadian employment data to extend latest bounceAlthough a one-month-old support line triggered USDCAD bounce off two-week low, The pair isn’t sure of further upside ahead of the Canadian employment data for February. Considering the oversold RSI conditions and strong support line, USDCAD is likely to keep the latest corrective pullback directed towards a short-term horizontal area around 1.2600. However, any further upside needs to defy bearish SMA and 200-SMA level of 1.2690 to recall the bulls. Alternatively, a downside break of the stated support line, at 1.2520 needs a strong fundamental catalyst, either via upbeat oil prices or US dollar weakness, or rosy employment data, to keep the USDCAD sellers hopeful. It should, however, be noted that February’s multi-month low of 1.2465 will be a tough nut to break for the USDCAD bears if at all they manage to conquer the immediate support. Hence, USDCAD seems to lack favors for the further downside, which in turn suggests extended bounce. Though, the Canadian jobs report will be the key to watch.
Long
by MTradingGlobal