Euro Weekly SetupEURUSD weekly setup suggesting major short.
charts shows some rally on long expected just to enter short from level 1.05900 for target 1.03350
Euro
EURGBP - TRADE IDEA ON LONG SIDE FOR HUGE PROFITSymbol - EURGBP
EURGBP is currently trading at 0.8272
I'm seeing a trading opportunity on buy side.
Buying EURGBP pair at CMP 0.8272
I will be adding more if 0.8245 comes & will hold with SL 0.8225
Targets I'm expecting are 0.8345 - 0.8370 & above.
Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
EURUSD: Focus on 13-month-old support and EU/US GDPEURUSD retreats towards a key support level as traders prepare for Wednesday's Eurozone and US Q3 GDP reports. Despite this, the pair maintains a mid-October breakdown below the 200-SMA, while oscillators challenge continued bearish momentum.
Bulls and bears jostle at key support
While EURUSD sellers benefit from the drop below the 200-SMA and a stronger US Dollar, an upward trend line from October 2023, along with an oversold RSI and a potential bull cross on the MACD, may limit further declines of the major currency pair.
Key technical levels
The 13-month rising support line near 1.0770 is crucial for EURUSD sellers if the pair drops further. Below that, the monthly low of 1.0760 is an important level, with June and April lows around 1.0665 and 1.0600 as potential targets.
For EURUSD buyers, recovery seems challenging without breaking the 200-SMA at 1.0870. Even if they succeed, the 1.1000-1.0980 zone, marked since January, poses a tough challenge. If the Euro bulls cross the 1.1000 hurdle, they’ll set their sights on the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the pair’s late 2023 fall and a 10-month-old rising trend line, close to 1.1100 and 1.1220 in that order.
Further downside needs a strong catalyst
With mixed oscillator signals, EURUSD sellers need robust data to support US Dollar strength and Euro weakness to push prices lower. A corrective bounce seems likely, potentially creating fresh selling opportunities if Eurozone data surprises positively.
EURUSD bounces back from year-long support ahead of EU/US PMIEURUSD records its first daily gain in four, bouncing back from the lowest level since July 3, as traders eagerly await the preliminary readings of October's PMIs for the Eurozone and the US. The Euro pair’s movement aligns with overbought RSI conditions while it turns from an upward support line established in early October 2023.
Sellers remain in control
Despite an oversold RSI (14) supporting EURUSD's bounce from key support, bearish MACD signals and trading below the 200-SMA keep sellers optimistic. The downside bias is further strengthened by more dovish expectations from the European Central Bank (ECB) compared to the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Key technical levels to watch
The multi-month support line around 1.0765 is crucial for EURUSD. A clear break below this level could expose the pair to a decline toward February and June 2024 lows, near 1.0700 and 1.0680, respectively. However, if the RSI conditions hold, Euro bears may face challenges around 1.0680. If not, the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600 will be the last line of defense for buyers before the pair heads toward the late 2023 bottom around 1.0450.
Alternatively, a rebound for EURUSD seems unlikely while trading below the 200-SMA at 1.0870. That said, the immediate upside is protected by the 50% Fibonacci level from the pair's rise between October 2023 and September 2024, located around 1.0830. Additionally, the 38.2% Fibonacci level and an 11-week-old support line near 1.0920 and 1.1000 will be tough obstacles for bulls to overcome if they break past 1.0830.
Further recovery looks challenging
While some technical signals indicate that sellers may be losing momentum, several technical and fundamental factors suggest buyers are not yet ready to step in. The EURUSD's corrective bounce could continue with strong EU data and weak US statistics. However, if the US Dollar sees a positive surprise, the likelihood of further downside for the pair remains high.
EURUSD: 200-SMA, oversold RSI test bears ahead of ECBEarly Wednesday, EURUSD sees the first daily gains in more than a week, after hitting its lowest point in 10 weeks. In doing so, the Euro pair portrays the market’s consolidation ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and September’s US Retail Sales data.
Sellers have a bumpy road ahead
In addition to pre-data consolidation, the 200-day SMA and oversold RSI pose challenges for EURUSD bears, indicating limited downside potential. A significant drop may occur only if the ECB disappoints or US data delivers unexpectedly strong signals for the dollar.
Technical levels to watch
The 200-SMA level surrounding 1.0870 appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD, backed by the oversold RSI. However, a downside break of the same won’t hesitate to drag the prices toward the August month’s low of near 1.0775. Following that, an ascending support line from October 2023, close to 1.0750 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the buyers.
On the contrary, July’s high of near 1.0950 could lure EURUSD buyers during a corrective bounce. Following that, the March peak surrounding 1.0980 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet can entertain Euro buyers before testing them with a two-month-old horizontal support-turned-resistance of near 1.1015 and the previous support line stretched from late June, close to 1.1030.
Price Consolidation Ahead, But No Trend Change Expected
While technical indicators suggest bear exhaustion and a possible corrective bounce for EURUSD, multiple resistances and fundamental factors hinder a reversal of the ongoing two-week bearish trend.
EURUSD: Bears focus on 1.0800 and US Inflation cluesEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in eight weeks as traders await September's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, especially after the previous day’s FOMC Minutes drowned the Euro pair.
Bears keep the driver’s seat
Apart from the US Dollar’s run-up post-Fed Minutes, the EURUSD pair’s confirmation of “Double Tops” bearish chart formation and a clear break of a 15-week-old rising support line add strength to the downside bias.
It’s worth noting, however, that the oversold RSI (14) line and sluggish MACD signals challenge intraday sellers, along with the pre-data consolidation.
Key technical levels to watch
The 50% Fibonacci level from the EURUSD’s June to September rise, around 1.0940, limits immediate downside. The next significant support is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.0870, known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio.” If the price breaks below 1.0870, it could lead to a drop toward the bearish target from the "Double Tops" pattern, around 1.0800.
On the upside, the EURUSD recovery is unlikely unless it surpasses the 1.1010 level. The previous support line, now acting as resistance, is near 1.1000. In a case where the Euro buyers manage to stay onboard past 1.1010, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the double tops, respectively near 1.1085 and 1.1200, will be on their radars.
Further downside expected
While an oversold RSI and potentially softening US inflation data may pose challenges for US Dollar bulls, EURUSD bears remain encouraged. The confirmation of a bearish chart formation, combined with the European Central Bank's (ECB) more dovish stance compared to the Federal Reserve (Fed), keeps the sellers optimistic about further declines.
EURUSD: Bears seek confirmation from “Double Tops” and US NFPEarly Thursday, EURUSD prints a five-day losing streak, reaching its lowest point in three weeks. The Euro pair traders are holding their breath for the September US employment report, especially after strong data from ADP and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Sellers approach key supports
In addition to strong US data and hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell, softer inflation in the Eurozone is adding pressure on the EURUSD pair. A clear drop below the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) keeps bearish sentiment alive. Plus, the lack of an oversold RSI (14) and bearish signals from the MACD suggest further weakness ahead.
Important levels to watch
With the EURUSD pair breaking below the 50-EMA and facing bearish technical and fundamental factors, it looks poised to test the previous monthly low around 1.1000. However, a six-month-old support line will likely challenge sellers around 1.0980. Importantly, the convergence of the 100-EMA and an ascending support line from late June, near 1.0960, is a crucial level to monitor. A drop below this level could push prices toward the target of the “Double Tops” pattern, around 1.0800.
Alternatively, the 50-EMA around 1.1045 serves as the immediate barrier for any recovery in the EURUSD pair. If the bulls can break through this level, they’ll face further resistance at 1.1100 and the “Double Tops” around 1.1200. A push above 1.1200 would challenge the current bearish trend and open the door for buyers to target the 2023 peak of approximately 1.1275.
Bears reign is about to be challenged
Overall, the EURUSD pair looks bearish in the short term, but there’s limited downside potential before reaching crucial technical levels. This means upcoming data and events will play a vital role in determining the next move.
EURUSD: Bulls need validation from 1.1200 and Fed Chair PowellEURUSD is gaining support after falling from a 14-month high, as buyers wait for comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell.
Upside remains favored
The EURUSD pair is holding above a two-week rising support line and the 200-SMA, along with an upward trend line from late June, which keeps buyers optimistic. The steady RSI (14) also indicates a slow upward movement.
Technical levels to watch
Even with key support levels helping the EURUSD pair and the RSI suggesting an upward trend, the bulls may struggle to break through the horizontal resistance around 1.1200. If they succeed, the next targets could be the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions (FE) of the pair’s August-September moves, respectively near 1.1215 and 1.1265. The previous yearly high around 1.1275 is a crucial point for the bears; if that breaks, prices could reach the 2022 peak of 1.1495.
Meanwhile, EURUSD sellers should look for a clear drop below the immediate rising support line around 1.1125 to enter the market. However, the 200-SMA and a three-month trend line near 1.1080 and 1.0950 will be important obstacles for sellers. If the price stays below 1.0950, it could fall further toward the previous monthly low of 1.0780.
Charts, Powell in the spotlight
Along with the technical factors, comments from Fed Chair Powell will be important for EURUSD bulls. The recent rise is driven by market expectations of two more 0.50% rate cuts from the US central bank in 2024. If Powell dismisses these expectations, which seems unlikely, a downward reversal in Euro prices could happen.
EURUSD: Bulls struggle to keep control on FOMC DayEURUSD picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s retreat from a month-old horizontal hurdle as traders prepare for the all-important US Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision. In doing so, the Euro pair defends last week’s U-turn from a 200-SMA while making rounds to a four-week-long bearish channel’s top line.
Buyers are cautious
Along with the strong rebound from the 200-SMA, a positive RSI (14) supports the bullish outlook for the EURUSD pair. However, the key resistance area, a potential bearish signal on the MACD, and the cautious market sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting may challenge any upward momentum.
Key technical levels
For EURUSD bulls to take charge, they must break above the key horizontal resistance zone around 1.1145-55, especially if the Fed signals a dovish stance. If they succeed, the focus will shift to the yearly peak near 1.1200. After that, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) levels of August-September moves at 1.1215 and 1.1265 will be next, followed by the previous yearly high of 1.1275.
Conversely, any pullback in EURUSD should find strong support at the 200-SMA level around 1.1045. Even if it falls below this, the monthly low of 1.1000, the lower boundary of the bearish channel near 1.0980, and an upward trend line from late June around 1.0930 will likely hold the bears back before they gain control.
Sellers have a long and bumpy road ahead…
Even if buyers face challenges, EURUSD sellers still have a tough road ahead before taking control. Key obstacles include the Fed's potential consecutive rate cuts in 2024 and a rising support line around 1.0930, which are both important factors to watch.
EURUSD: Bears Eye 1.0980 as ECB Interest Rate Decision LoomsEURUSD prints its first daily gain in five days as traders recover from a month-long low, preparing for the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming policy announcements. Despite the recent slowing of US inflation and speculation about possible significant rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve in late 2024, the Euro bulls remain cautious due to the ECB's dovish stance and economic concerns in the Eurozone.
EURUSD sellers keep control
Even though the Euro is recovering before the key event, the overall bearish outlook for the pair remains intact. It continues to show weakness with the 20-EMA breakdown early in the week, bearish MACD signals, and a steady RSI (14) line.
Key technical levels to watch
Among the key technical levels, sellers are particularly focused on the convergence of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a previous resistance line around 1.0980. Following that, an ascending support line from late June near 1.0900 is also important to monitor. If the price remains below 1.0900, it could drop further to the previous monthly low around 1.0790.
On the other hand, for EURUSD buyers to regain control, they need to see the price break above the 21-day EMA at around 1.1050 and a falling resistance line at about 1.1070. Additionally, a hawkish rate cut from the ECB would support this move. If the price manages to rise past 1.1070, it could test the monthly high of 1.1155 and the yearly peak around 1.1200.
Downside bias gains acceptance
Looking ahead, there's uncertainty about the ECB’s upcoming rate decision. Some traders anticipate a 0.50% cut, while most expect a smaller 0.25% reduction. If the ECB surprises the market with a more aggressive or unexpected rate move, it could lead to significant volatility. Therefore, EURUSD traders should hold off on new trades until the ECB's decision is announced. They should set a stop-loss to manage their risk if they are currently holding short positions.
EURUSD: Sellers stay optimistic, watching 21-EMA & US dataThe EURUSD pair has lost momentum after briefly recovering from the 21-EMA support level. Traders are now focused on upcoming US job reports, including the Initial Jobless Claims, ADP Employment Change, and ISM Services PMI. This cautious mood is making it hard for the Euro to gain traction.
Multiple catalysts lure Euro bears
The EURUSD pair has been stuck in a trading range for a week, with the RSI (14) showing no strong trend. However, a bearish chart pattern and bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful. Optimism about strong US data and concerns about an economic slowdown in the Eurozone add to the negative outlook for the Euro.
Technical levels to watch
EURUSD pair’s repeated bounces of 21-EMA support of 1.1050 highlights the numbers as a tough nut to crack for short-term sellers. Following that, a three-month-old resistance-turned-support near 1.0980 will lure the bears. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0980, a gradual decline toward the rising wedge confirmation’s theoretical target near 1.0700 can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, EURUSD buyers need validation from 1.1080 to regain control. Even so, the aforementioned rising wedge’s bottom line surrounding 1.1210 will be a crucial resistance to watch for the bulls. Following that, the pair’s gradual run-up toward the previous yearly high of 1.1275 appears more likely.
Looking ahead…
A slew of US employment and activity data will decorate Thursday’s economic calendar and direct EURUSD traders. However, the quote’s failure to cheer the US Dollar’s weakness can please sellers should the scheduled statistics favour the Greenback’s run-up by dimming the odds of heavy Fed rate cuts.
EURUSD: Rising wedge signals bullish exhaustion, focus on dataEURUSD pares its biggest daily loss in 11 weeks early Thursday. In doing so, it's bouncing back from a key support level and the 50-Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
EURUSD bulls take a breather…
This rebound suggests that the Euro might be running out of steam before important economic data is released. Among them, the first reading of Germany’s inflation for August and the US Q2 GDP’s revision gain the attention of intraday traders. That said, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators suggest a potential bullish trend, but confirmation is needed.
Key technical levels to watch…
The EURUSD buyers need validation from a one-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.1150 and the US/German data to keep the reins. Following that, the yearly high marked earlier in the week around 1.1200 will lure the Euro bulls. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.1200, the aforementioned wedge’s top line of near 1.1250 and the previous yearly top of 1.1275 will act as the final defenses of the sellers.
On the contrary, EURUSD sellers must wait for a clear downside break of 1.1100 to confirm the bearish chart formation and aim for further declines. In that case, a convergence of the 200-EMA and an ascending trend line from early June, the previous resistance near 1.0980, will be in the spotlight. Should the pair remain bearish past 1.0980, the odds of witnessing further downward trajectory toward the rising wedge’s theoretical target of 1.0680 can’t be ruled out.
What next?
In summary, the EURUSD is currently on a positive track, but further gains may depend on upcoming economic data and potential pullbacks.
EURUSD jostles with key resistance, PMI, Fed’s Powell eyedEURUSD traders are taking a break at its highest level since July 2023 as they await August PMI data for the Eurozone and the US. They are also keeping an eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole event on Friday. The overbought RSI indicates a potential pullback, with immediate support around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from July-October 2023, near 1.1100. If the price falls, the rising support line near 1.1030 and the range of levels from late November 2023 around 1.1010-1.0980 might hold strong against further declines.
For EURUSD buyers to regain confidence, they need to break the yearly high of around 1.1175. Overcoming this could lead to resistance around 1.1200-1.1210 before reaching the late 2023 high of around 1.1275. If the pair surpasses 1.1275, it might gradually rise towards the 2022 high near 1.1500.
In summary, EURUSD is still in a bullish trend, though a short-term pullback is possible.
EURUSD portrays bullish exhaustion, focus on 1.0960 and US dataEURUSD is seeing its first daily gains in three days as buyers gear up to tackle key resistance levels ahead of upcoming US employment data. Supported by positive RSI indicators and bullish MACD signals, the Euro pair aims to extend its recent uptrend towards a 13-month-old descending resistance line around 1.0950. Beyond this, it targets the upper boundary of a bullish channel stretched from April, near 1.0960. Breaking above these levels could pave the way for a challenge of the psychological barrier at 1.1000, with potential further gains towards the late 2023 peak near 1.1140.
On the downside, June’s peak at approximately 1.0915 and the 1.0900 mark, along with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0860, act as immediate support. Deeper declines might find additional footing near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0790 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0765. Euro buyers maintain optimism unless there is a daily close below the bullish channel’s lower boundary near 1.0700.
Overall, while EURUSD bulls show signs of slowing down, bearish momentum is muted, even if US economic data boosts the US Dollar.
EURUSD bears keep reins with eyes on US GDP, ECB’s LagardeEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in a fortnight as sellers jostle with a 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support ahead of the US Q2 GDP and a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the early-week breakdown of a month-old rising support line, now immediate resistance near 1.0900. However, downbeat RSI conditions and a looming bull cross on the MACD hint at the quote’s corrective bounce off the stated EMA support of 1.0825. In a case where the Euro prices remain weak past 1.0825, the 1.0800 threshold and 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of April-July upside, near 1.0735, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0675, will be important to watch for the bears ahead of targeting the yearly low marked in April surrounding 1.0600.
Alternatively, downbeat US statistics could join the hawkish comments from ECB’s Lagarde to underpin the EURUSD pair’s rebound from the key EMA support of 1.0825. The same line highlights the support-turned-resistance line stretched from late June, near the 1.0900 threshold at the latest. It’s worth noting, however, that the Euro buyer’s ability to keep the reins past 1.0900 depends on a clear upside break of an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from early April, around 1.0950 as we write. Following that, the bulls can easily challenge the 1.1000 psychological magnet.
Overall, EURUSD prices are likely to remain weak unless crossing 1.0950. However, the downside room appears limited and may lack momentum due to the scheduled data/events.
Impending Golden Cross keeps EURUSD bulls hopeful ahead of ECBEURUSD retreats from the highest level in four months as traders await monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB) early Thursday. In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the overbought RSI conditions. However, a successful break of a descending resistance line stretched from early January, now immediate support near 1.0890, joins the bullish MACD signals to keep the buyers hopeful. Even if the quote drops beneath 1.0890 resistance-turned-support, a convergence of the 50-SMA and 200-SMA, close to 1.0810-05, will be a tough nut to crack for the bears. It’s worth mentioning that the 50-SMA is approaching the 200-SMA from below and portrays a bullish moving average crossover called “Golden Cross”, which in turn suggests further upside of the major currency pair.
Meanwhile, EURUSD bulls can aim for the 1.0980-1.1010 resistance zone during a fresh upside. Following that, 1.1040 and the 1.1100 threshold may act as intermediate halts while directing buyers toward the late 2023 peak of 1.1140. In a case where the Euro pair remains firmer past 1.1140, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the previous yearly high of 1.1275 and then to the year 2022 top surrounding 1.1495 can’t be ruled out.
Overall, EURUSD remains in the upward trajectory despite the pre-ECB pullback. However, the upside room appears limited unless the quote offers a daily closing beyond 1.1010. It should be observed that the ECB is likely to keep the monetary policy unchanged but bears are waiting for the signals of further rate cuts in 2024.
EURUSD bulls stay hopeful ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s TestimonyEURUSD remains well-set on the buyer’s radar, despite snapping a four-day uptrend, as markets await Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s bi-annual Testimony. That said, the upbeat RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals join the quote’s successful trading beyond a convergence of 100-SMA and 200-SMA to keep the buyers hopeful. However, a month-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding 1.0840-50 guards the Euro pair’s immediate upside. Following that, descending trend lines from early March and January, respectively near 1.0875 and 1.0895, quickly followed by the 1.0900 threshold, will precede the previous monthly top of 1.0916 to challenge the pair’s further advances. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 1.0916, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the 1.1000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out.
Alternatively, the aforementioned key SMAs will join the 50% Fibonacci ratio of the EURUSD pair’s October-December 2023 upside to highlight 1.0800-1.0790 as the key support to watch during the quote’s fresh fall. Should the bears manage to conquer the stated support, the odds of witnessing a quick fall toward 1.0750 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0710 can’t be ruled out. However, an upward-sloping support line from late 2023, close to 1.0680 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the Euro bears afterward.
To sum up, the EURUSD remains in the upward trajectory despite the week-start pullback. Hence, Fed Chair Powell’s attempt to revive the US Dollar's strength, by providing hawkish clues and/or ruling out economic woes, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.
EURUSD bulls jostle with 200-SMA hurdle on US HolidayEURUSD struggles to keep the buyers on board early Thursday, after rising for four consecutive days, as market momentum dwindles during the US holiday. That said, the Euro pair jumped to a three-week high while rising the most in a week after the US statistics drowned Greenback the previous day. However, the cautious mood ahead of Friday’s key US employment report might have challenged the bulls of late, especially amid dicey markets. That said, the RSI’s pullback from the overbought region and receding bullish bias of the MACD joins the 200-SMA to limit the quote’s further upside past 1.0790-85. Even if the quote crosses the 1.0790 hurdle, the 1.0800 threshold and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of March-April fall, close to 1.0840, will prod the additional advances. Above all, a four-month-old descending resistance line, close to 1.0895, quickly followed by the 1.0900 round figure, will act as the final defense of the bears.
Meanwhile, the EURUSD pair’s retreat appears elusive beyond the week-start peak of around 1.0776. Following that, the 100-SMA support of 1.0730 will be crucial to watch for the Euro bears. It’s worth noting, however, that an ascending support line from mid-April, close to 1.0680 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the sellers, a break of which will make the pair vulnerable to slump toward the yearly low of 1.0600 marked in April.
Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to remain on the bull’s radar during a less active day. However, the quote’s upside room appears limited and hence highlights Friday’s key data/events.
EURUSD approaches multi-month-old support ahead of Fed inflationEURUSD struggles to defend the first weekly gain in four as sellers appear more inclined to revisit an upward-sloping support line from early October 2023. That said, the Euro pair’s failure to keep Thursday’s rebound from the stated support line joins the bearish MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core PCE Price Index. However, a daily closing beneath the aforementioned key technical support surrounding 1.0665 becomes necessary for the bears to tighten their grip. Following that, the quote becomes vulnerable to slump toward the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600. In a case where the downbeat RSI conditions and the stated 1.0600 support fail to stop the sellers, the prices could well aim for the year 2023 to bottom close to 1.0450.
Meanwhile, EURUSD recovery remains elusive unless it stays beneath a convergence of the 200 and 100 SMAs, close to 1.0790 by the press time. That said, the 1.0750 and the 1.0800 thresholds are extra upside filters to watch during the quote’s fresh rise in case of the downside US data. It’s worth noting that the Euro pair’s successful run-up beyond 1.0800 will enable buyers to aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of late 2023 fall, around 1.0865, but a descending trend line from early January 2024, close to 1.0900, will challenge the upside afterward. Even if the quote manages to remain firmer past 1.0900, an 11-month-long falling resistance line near 1.0990 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet will be tough nuts to crack for the bulls.
Overall, EURUSD bears keep the reins ahead of the key US data but the quote’s further downside hinges on the strong US inflation clues and a clear break of the 1.0665 support.
EURUSD fades bounce off key support line as full markets returnEURUSD lacks clear directions early Thursday after rising in the last three consecutive days. In doing so, the Euro pair fades Friday’s rebound from an upward-sloping support line stretched from October as sentiment dwindles amid the return of full markets after the previous day’s Juneteenth holiday in the US. Apart from the struggle to defend the recovery, bearish MACD signals and a downbeat RSI line also challenge the buyers. Apart from that, a fortnight-old descending resistance line surrounding 1.0765 and a convergence of the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), near the 1.0800 threshold, stand tall to restrict the quote’s upside moves. In a case where the major currency pair remains firmer past 1.0800, the odds of witnessing a quick run-up toward the monthly high of 1.0916 can’t be ruled out.
Alternatively, EURUSD sellers aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December 2023 run-up, close to 1.0710, as an immediate target ahead of revisiting the aforementioned multi-month-old support trend line surrounding 1.0670. It’s worth noting that the monthly low of around 1.0665 acts as an additional downside filter for the Euro before directing it to the yearly low of 1.0600 marked in April. Additionally, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of 1.0595 acts as the final defense of the buyers ahead of allowing the bears to challenge the late 2023 bottom of near 1.0450.
Overall, EURUSD remains on the bear’s radar unless crossing 1.0800. However, downside room for the pair appears limited.
EURUSD traders should focus on 1.0790, US inflation and FedEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in six weeks as the pair traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Also important are the final readings of Germany’s inflation data for May and speeches from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials. In doing so, the Euro pair keeps the week-start fall beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a one-month-old ascending support line, a part of the short-term bullish triangle. Not only the downside break of the key SMA and rejection of the bullish chart pattern but the bearish MACD signals and an absence of the oversold RSI (14) also keep the pair sellers hopeful. The same highlights February’s low of around 1.0695 as immediate support to watch during the quote’s fresh downside. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line from October 2023 near 1.0650 will act as the final defense of the buyers. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 1.0650, it becomes vulnerable to refresh the yearly low, currently around the 1.0600 threshold.
On the contrary, softer US inflation and the Fed’s inability to convince the policy hawks despite avoiding the looming rate cut can trigger the EURUSD pair’s recovery. In that case, a convergence of the 200-SMA and support-turned-resistance line around 1.0790 will be in the spotlight. Should the Euro buyers manage to provide a daily closing beyond the 1.0790 hurdle, as well as cross the 1.0800 round figure, the 50% Fibonacci ratio of its July-October 2023 decline, around 1.0865, and then to a five-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0915, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that the buyers will face heavy resistance past 1.0915 as the aforementioned triangle’s top line of 1.0920 will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio near 1.0960 and an 11-month-old falling trend line surrounding 1.1010 to restrict the further upside.
Overall, EURUSD remains on the bear’s radar beneath 1.1010 while 1.0790 acts as an immediate key upside hurdle.
EURUSD bulls need validation from 1.0920 and ECBEURUSD prints the first daily gains in three while approaching the top line of a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. Apart from the 1.0920 upside hurdle comprising the stated resistance line, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) widely expected rate cut also poses a challenge to the major currency pair’s further upside. Additionally, the sluggish MACD signals and unimpressive RSI line also raise bars for the buyers. Hence, the quote is likely to witness a pullback toward the weekly support line of around 1.0860 unless the ECB surprises the market, either with no rate cut or by providing hints of no more actions in the near term. In a case where the bears dominate past 1.0860, the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support of near 1.0815 could gain the spotlight. It’s worth mentioning that the Euro sellers will gain conviction if the pair confirms the rising wedge pattern by falling beneath the 1.0765 support, which in turn opens the door for a theoretical fall toward 1.0450.
Meanwhile, the ECB’s ability to convince the buyers, despite announcing the 0.25% cut to its benchmark rates, could help the EURUSD pair to cross the 1.0920 resistance. In that case, the quote’s run-up toward March’s peak surrounding 1.0980 and then to the 1.1000 threshold can’t be ruled out. However, the yearly high of near 1.1040 and the late 2023 top around 1.1140 will challenge the Euro pair’s upside past 1.1000.
To sum up, EURUSD braces for a post-ECB pullback while rising towards a short-term key resistance ahead of the event. However, the ECB’s hawkish halt might convince the buyers to return, which in turn requires traders to remain cautious before the outcome.
EURUSD fades bounce off 200-SMA as EU/US inflation clues loomEURUSD marked the biggest daily gain in a week the previous day while bouncing off the 200-SMA as the Eurozone data came in overall positive while the US statistics mostly disappointed. Also allowing the Euro pair to rebound from the key SMA level is the consolidation ahead of today’s first readings of the EU inflation data and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, also known as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. That said, the quote’s inability to defend the previous day’s rebound joins the bearish MACD signals and unimpressive RSI conditions to lure the bears. However, a daily closing beneath the 200-SMA support of 1.0787 becomes necessary for the seller’s return. It’s worth noting that a five-month-old resistance-turned-support line near 1.0790 and an upward-sloping trend line stretched from mid-April, close to 1.0750, act as additional downside filters. Should the pair sellers keep control past 1.0750, February’s low of 1.0694 and the yearly bottom marked in April around 1.0600 will be in the spotlight.
Alternatively, the EURUSD pair’s recovery remains elusive beneath a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 1.0885 at the latest. That said, the 1.0900 threshold also stands tall to test the Euro bulls before directing them toward March’s peak of near 1.0980 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Furthermore, the quote’s successful trading beyond the 1.1000 mark allows the bulls to challenge the late 2023 top surrounding 1.1140, as well as the previous yearly peak of 1.1275.
To sum up, the EURUSD pair remains weak within a short-term trading range ahead of the key EU/US data.
