EURUSD rebound is elusive, ECB’s Lagarde, US Retail Sales eyed

EURUSD struggles to defend the previous day’s corrective bounce from a three-month low early Thursday. In doing so, the Euro pair seesaws around the key 1.0730-20 support zone comprising levels marked since early November. It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) line’s gradual recovery from the oversold territory joins the bearish MACD signals and the early February’s downside break of the key technical levels to keep the sellers hopeful. That said, a fresh selling needs validation from the latest trough surrounding 1.0695 before directing the quote toward the November 10 swing low of around 1.0655. Following that, the early October 2023 swing high of around 1.0640 will be the last defense of the buyers before giving control to the bears.

On the flip side, the support-turned-resistance line stretched from early October, around 1.0770 by the press time, guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair. Even if the quote manages to cross the 1.0770 hurdle, it won’t be capable of luring the bulls as the 100-SMA hurdle of around 1.0800 will test the upside momentum. It’s worth noting, however, that any upside momentum must stay beyond the 1.0825-30 resistance confluence comprising the 200-SMA and a five-week-old falling trend line to convince the markets of a bullish trend.

Overall, the EURUSD pair remains well beneath the key support-turned-resistances and hence any recovery below 1.0830 remains unconvincing.