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Trump’s Trade Tensions Fuel Safe Haven Demand Amid USD WeaknessGold Analysis: Trump’s Trade Tensions Fuel Safe Haven Demand Amid USD Weakness 💰📈 On April 15, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into potential tariffs on critical mineral imports, marking a further escalation in the trade dispute with global partners, especially China. This new wave of tension between the world's two largest economies has caused market sentiment to weaken, pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar (USD) has weakened, dropping to its lowest level in three years last week, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies. Fed's Stance on Market Volatility: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve will not intervene to "rescue" markets amid heavy volatility, emphasizing that the market is reacting to several uncertainties, particularly the ever-changing trade policies under Trump. Powell believes it's too early to determine what is really causing the volatility, and in the short term, instability could persist, partly driven by hedge funds reducing leverage. Gold Outlook: Bullish Trend Continues: Given the current market conditions, it’s evident that gold is likely to continue its upward momentum and reach new all-time highs (ATH). With global financial markets offering little hope for immediate monetary stimulus, as announced by the Fed, gold remains an appealing choice. Trading Strategy: Current View: Focus on BUY positions as the market continues to push higher. While we’re trading at ATH levels, sharp pullbacks are normal and can be expected without major news triggers. Trade Plan: We won’t look for SELL entries at this point, but instead wait for strong market pullbacks to buy. If significant drops occur, we’ll enter BUY positions based on continuation patterns (CP) and key support levels on M15 and M30 charts. Expected Pullback: After a strong push early in the Asian session today, the price is expected to return to the 331x - 3300 range for potential buy entries. Key Support Levels: 3314, 3300, 3284, 3266 Key Resistance Levels: 3380, 3396, 3410 Trade Zones: BUY ZONE: 3300 - 3298 SL: 3264 TP: 3304 - 3308 - 3312 - 3316 - 3320 - 3324 - 3330 - ??? SELL ZONE: 3396 - 3398 SL: 3402 TP: 3392 - 3388 - 3384 - 3380 - 3376 - 3370 Important Reminder: Focus on securing BUY entries today. Although there could be sudden drops for potential SELL opportunities, they aren’t part of the plan for now. Wait for key resistance levels or psychological barriers set by other traders for potential shorting. Always adhere to TP/SL levels to ensure your account remains safe. 🛡️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
2
GOLD MARKET OUTLOOK Continuation of Bearish Structure Ahead FOMC🟡 GOLD MARKET OUTLOOK – Continuation of Bearish Structure Ahead of FOMC The market continues to follow the bearish view we’ve held since the start of the week. As of today, price action is forming a descending triangle pattern toward the tip on M30–H1, within a compression zone between a declining trendline and a minor rising trendline. 🔍 Zooming out, the broader chart context shows a clear bear flag formation, and I remain biased toward a further drop into the 294x–293x zone in the coming sessions. ⚠️ Tonight’s US session brings the FOMC meeting, which may trigger high volatility and liquidity sweeps toward unfilled zones below current price. Be cautious! 📌 As long as price fails to break above 3075, there’s no confirmed shift in trend. The 307x zone remains a key level for sellers — if unbroken, panic selling may intensify and buyers will remain sidelined. 🧠 Global equities are seeing a light rebound — led by late US session gains and some recovery in Asia & India today — but this seems more like a dead-cat bounce than true capital inflow. → Remember: CPI & PPI data are still due this week, so don’t rush to FOMO. 🧭 Key Technical Zones: 🔺 Resistance: 3026 – 3045 – 3074 🔻 Support: 2974 – 2957 – 2944 – 2930 🎯 Trade Plan: 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3044 – 3046 SL: 3050 TP: 3040 – 3036 – 3032 – 3028 – 3024 – 3020 – 3010 – 3000 🟢 BUY ZONE: 2976 – 2974 SL: 2970 TP: 2980 – 2984 – 2988 – 2992 – 2996 – 3000 💡 The market remains sensitive — stick with the dominant trend and don’t chase emotional trades. Always follow your TP/SL rules and be patient — let the market come to you. Stay safe & trade smart, — AD | Money Market Flow
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
1
GOLD CRASHES HARD — BUT THE BIG SHORT VIEW WAS ALREADY 🟡 GOLD CRASHES HARD — BUT THE BIG SHORT VIEW WAS ALREADY IN PLAY Gold dropped — and dropped even harder than expected. But for those following closely, this wasn’t a surprise. From the start of April, we had been watching for signs of reversal after gold kept printing new ATHs. The candlestick behavior on the higher timeframes was already hinting at exhaustion — and today’s move validated that broader view. 🔍 Why I’ve Been Calling for a BIG SHORT — Not Just in Gold This isn’t just about XAUUSD. Zoom out and you’ll see the signs across the board: US, EU, and Asian stock markets are in a steep decline Crypto is stagnant, with no new capital inflow and little investor interest And gold — after a historic run — is now facing intense profit-taking pressure, especially under growing geopolitical and global trade risks In this environment, many investors are moving to cash and staying on the sidelines. 📉 DXY: A Potential Comeback? The USD Index (DXY) has been heavily sold off in recent months. But if you look closely — it's now testing a multi-year support zone that's held strong for nearly 3 years. AD’s view? If this level holds — and if recent tariff policies + international pressure from Trump continue — we could see a real USD recovery in the coming weeks. Trump appears to be playing hardball — not just for his own benefit, but strategically for the U.S. His aggressive trade moves are forcing nations to reconsider tariff terms. And in the short term, that puts Trump in a position of power — globally. 🤔 The Fed’s Dilemma Even as Trump escalates trade pressure, the Fed remains cautious. They’ve held back from rate cuts — waiting for clearer outcomes from these global negotiations. All eyes are now on Trump’s next moves — and how other major economies will respond. 🔮 Strategy Moving Forward Many investors are still in risk-off mode, hoarding cash and waiting for further declines. AD still expects further downside in gold next week, alongside a potential short-term bounce in DXY. → After that, once the trade talk dust settles, we could very well see Gold resume its climb, while USD retests major supports on the D1 timeframe. 📌 I’ll be back with a full weekly outlook tomorrow, but for now — absorb this Gold/USD landscape and build your strategy for the new week. Stay sharp & protect your capital. — AD | Money Market Flow
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Gold flirts with sellers in a bullish channel ahead of US NFPGold is stabilizing after its largest daily decline in 15 weeks, as traders await Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In doing so, the precious metal bounces back above the 50-SMA but struggles to reclaim its previous upward trend, signaled by a three-week-old rising wedge. Still, it remains within a bullish channel established since early August. Bulls need conviction to retake control Even with gold's recent bounce and its position within a multi-day bullish channel, Thursday’s confirmation of a rising wedge bearish chart formation, combined with bearish MACD signals and a lack of oversold RSI, raises concerns for buyers. Key technical levels to watch Gold buyers focus on the rising wedge's bottom near $2,762 to regain control. If they succeed, the next targets will be the wedge's top at around $2,796 and the bullish channel’s upper line at about $2,810. A firm move above $2,810 could lead to the bullion’s gradual rise toward $2,900 and potentially $3,000. On the other hand, Gold sellers are looking at Thursday’s low of $2,731, with the previous weekly low of around $2,708 in their sights. Key levels for bears include the bullish channel bottom and the 200-SMA near $2,687 and $2,670, respectively. If gold drops below $2,670, it may be set for a decline toward the rising wedge target of $2,570. Bulls in control, but sellers seek opportunities The recent bearish chart pattern offers sellers a chance for short-term gains, especially if the US employment report impacts gold prices. However, buyers are expected to maintain their hold on the market.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY fades month-old bullish trend on BoJ’s cautious pauseUSDJPY snapped a three-day winning streak even as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held benchmark interest rates unchanged, as widely expected, after its two-day monetary policy meeting early Thursday. In doing so, the Yen pair also challenged a five-week-old bullish trend channel. Bulls lack acceptance but bears have a bumpy road ahead… Apart from the BoJ’s hawkish halt, sluggish MACD and RSI conditions, along with the USDJPY pair’s inability to cross a month-old rising resistance line and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July-September downside, suggest a weakening of bullish bias. A slew of key supports, however, might challenge the sellers before taking control. Key technical levels to watch The aforementioned upward-sloping trend channel’s bottom line, close to 152.80, gains the immediate attention of the sellers ahead of the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 152.20 at the latest. Following that, the USDJPY sellers can aim for the 150.00 threshold and the 200-EMA support of 149.00. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 149.00, the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio and September’s peak, respectively near 148.10 and 147.20, will act as the final defense of the buyers. On the contrary, USDJPY needs a clear upside break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 153.45, also known as the golden ratio, to convince buyers. Even so, a month-long ascending trend line and a horizontal hurdle established since mid-July, close to 154.80 and 155.30-40, will challenge the Yen pair’s further advances. If the prices remain firmer past 155.40, the odds of witnessing a rally toward the aforementioned bullish channel’s top line surrounding 157.70 can’t be ruled out. Focus on US data As the BoJ’s cautious stance weighs on USDJPY buyers, traders will watch upcoming US inflation and employment data for further direction.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD: Focus on 13-month-old support and EU/US GDPEURUSD retreats towards a key support level as traders prepare for Wednesday's Eurozone and US Q3 GDP reports. Despite this, the pair maintains a mid-October breakdown below the 200-SMA, while oscillators challenge continued bearish momentum. Bulls and bears jostle at key support While EURUSD sellers benefit from the drop below the 200-SMA and a stronger US Dollar, an upward trend line from October 2023, along with an oversold RSI and a potential bull cross on the MACD, may limit further declines of the major currency pair. Key technical levels The 13-month rising support line near 1.0770 is crucial for EURUSD sellers if the pair drops further. Below that, the monthly low of 1.0760 is an important level, with June and April lows around 1.0665 and 1.0600 as potential targets. For EURUSD buyers, recovery seems challenging without breaking the 200-SMA at 1.0870. Even if they succeed, the 1.1000-1.0980 zone, marked since January, poses a tough challenge. If the Euro bulls cross the 1.1000 hurdle, they’ll set their sights on the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the pair’s late 2023 fall and a 10-month-old rising trend line, close to 1.1100 and 1.1220 in that order. Further downside needs a strong catalyst With mixed oscillator signals, EURUSD sellers need robust data to support US Dollar strength and Euro weakness to push prices lower. A corrective bounce seems likely, potentially creating fresh selling opportunities if Eurozone data surprises positively.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Sellers approach multi-month-old support before US dataGBPUSD is slipping from last week’s bounce off a six-month support line. Traders are watching for Tuesday's US Consumer Confidence report, while the strong US Dollar and cautious mood ahead of the US Q3 GDP figures, inflation data, and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are putting pressure on the Pound Sterling. Bears lose momentum While GBPUSD buyers aren’t gaining traction, sellers will struggle to take control. There are multiple support levels, and indicators like the RSI (14) and a weakening bearish MACD signal may hinder the bear’s progress. Key technical levels to watch Watch for the upward support line from late April around 1.2935, followed by the 200-SMA near 1.2800, as near-term key levels to watch for the GBPUSD sellers. If the bears push below 1.2800, look for support at the August and June lows around 1.2665 and 1.2610. GBPUSD needs to break the ascending trend line from early March near 1.3080 for a recovery. Additional resistance levels include the psychological barrier at 1.3000 and the 50-SMA at 1.3140. Lastly, a horizontal resistance zone near 1.3240 serves as a crucial barrier for buyers. Further downside appears less convincing With the bearish trend losing momentum, expectations for fewer rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve could change if upcoming data doesn't support US Dollar strength. This uncertainty calls for caution among GBPUSD sellers.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold portrays much-awaited pullback, focus on $2,710 & US dataEarly Friday, gold prices slipped after a brief bounce from a week-long support level, retreating from a point that has shifted from support to resistance. Traders are closely watching the September U.S. Durable Goods Orders. This movement highlights gold's defense against a mid-week rejection of a bullish trend, signaling the anticipated price pullback. Sellers flex muscles Gold is struggling to regain momentum, facing rejection from recent highs. With bearish signals from the MACD and an RSI close to 50, further declines in gold prices seem likely. However, strong support levels may challenge sellers' quest for lower prices. Key technical levels to watch In the past week, gold has seen multiple peaks and troughs, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) highlighting $2,715-$2,710 as a crucial support zone for sellers. Below that, the 38.2% Fibonacci Extension of gold's movements from September to October and the previous monthly high near $2,686 could attract bearish interest. Importantly, the upward-sloping trend line from early August and the 200-day SMA, around $2,657 and $2,638, respectively, will serve as final defenses for buyers before control shifts to sellers. On the upside, gold buyers are looking for confirmation from the lower boundary of the bullish channel, around $2,753. A successful breakout could lead to a rise towards the recent peak of $2,758 and potentially up to the channel’s upper line near $2,790. The 78.6% Fibonacci Extension at $2,772 and the $2,800 mark are additional upside filters to watch for the XAUUSD bulls. Bulls run out of steam Despite several strong support levels, the anticipated strength of the US dollar after upcoming economic data and recent technical consolidations indicate a potential short-term decline in gold prices. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact unless prices fall below $2,638.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bounces back from year-long support ahead of EU/US PMIEURUSD records its first daily gain in four, bouncing back from the lowest level since July 3, as traders eagerly await the preliminary readings of October's PMIs for the Eurozone and the US. The Euro pair’s movement aligns with overbought RSI conditions while it turns from an upward support line established in early October 2023. Sellers remain in control Despite an oversold RSI (14) supporting EURUSD's bounce from key support, bearish MACD signals and trading below the 200-SMA keep sellers optimistic. The downside bias is further strengthened by more dovish expectations from the European Central Bank (ECB) compared to the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Key technical levels to watch The multi-month support line around 1.0765 is crucial for EURUSD. A clear break below this level could expose the pair to a decline toward February and June 2024 lows, near 1.0700 and 1.0680, respectively. However, if the RSI conditions hold, Euro bears may face challenges around 1.0680. If not, the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600 will be the last line of defense for buyers before the pair heads toward the late 2023 bottom around 1.0450. Alternatively, a rebound for EURUSD seems unlikely while trading below the 200-SMA at 1.0870. That said, the immediate upside is protected by the 50% Fibonacci level from the pair's rise between October 2023 and September 2024, located around 1.0830. Additionally, the 38.2% Fibonacci level and an 11-week-old support line near 1.0920 and 1.1000 will be tough obstacles for bulls to overcome if they break past 1.0830. Further recovery looks challenging While some technical signals indicate that sellers may be losing momentum, several technical and fundamental factors suggest buyers are not yet ready to step in. The EURUSD's corrective bounce could continue with strong EU data and weak US statistics. However, if the US Dollar sees a positive surprise, the likelihood of further downside for the pair remains high.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY crosses 200-SMA to refresh 12-week high, focus on 152.00USDJPY has reached its highest point since July 31, rising for the third straight day after breaking the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) early Wednesday. However, a seven-month-old resistance zone around 151.85-152.00 limits further gains of the Yen pair. Bulls need a strong push The US Dollar’s strength and bullish MACD signals keep buyers hopeful. Yet, overbought RSI conditions and tough resistance mean a significant boost is necessary for further upward movement. Without this, the pair could quickly drop below the 200-SMA, leading to short-term selling. Key technical levels to watch In addition to the 200-SMA support at 151.35 and the resistance zone around 151.85-152.00, several important technical levels are crucial for USDJPY traders. The 50% Fibonacci level near 150.80 will attract sellers if the price drops below the 200-SMA, along with the key threshold at 150.00. A drop to around 149.40 is possible if sellers gain control, and if the price falls past this level, September’s high of 147.20 and the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 144.85 will come into focus. On the upside, a close above 152.00 could encourage buyers to target the 61.8% Fibonacci level, or Golden Ratio, near 153.40. If momentum continues, potential targets may include June’s low of 154.55 and the 78.6% level at 157.20. Decisive move ahead… While buyers seem in control, the struggle to surpass key resistance amid overbought conditions and upcoming PMI data could lead to a necessary pullback. Traders should proceed with caution as the next moves in USDJPY will be crucial.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold renews all-time high within bullish channel, $2,750 eyedGold prices soared to a record $2,710, marking four days of gains as investors flock to safety. Despite a stronger US dollar, gold has remained within a rising trend channel for the past three months. Caution Ahead While the bulls celebrate breaking through a three-week-old resistance level, the momentum indicators suggest a potential pullback. With the RSI nearing overbought territory, we might see a brief dip before another surge in prices. Key technical levels to watch Gold’s next challenges lie at the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the bullion’s September-October moves, respectively near $2,711 and $2,736, especially amid nearly overbought RSI conditions. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past the $2,736 hurdle, the aforementioned bullish channel’s top line surrounding $2,750 will be a tough nut to crack for the buyers. A breakthrough there could spark a rally towards the psychological $3,000 mark, with potential resistance around $2,800 and $2,900. On the contrary, Gold’s price has solid support at the $2,700 level and the 38.2% Fibonacci Extension around $2,686. If it falls below these, watch for a key support zone near $2,665, where the late September resistance and the 10-day EMA converge. Should XAUUSD bears keep the reins past $2,665, the channel’s bottom line of near $2,630 will be the last defense of the buyers. Buyers are likely to stay in control despite a potential pullback While a short-term pullback in gold prices appears overdue, the overall bullish trend is expected to hold strong due to global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Bulls run out of steam, focus on US Retail Sales, 150.00USDJPY is stuck in a tight weekly trading range near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), hovering between 149.30 and 150.00, as traders are on the lookout for the US Retail Sales report coming Thursday. Buyers need a strong boost to keep the reins In addition to the nervousness ahead of the data release and the 200-day EMA, the fading bullish momentum in the MACD and a steady RSI near overbought levels show that USDJPY is struggling to attract buyers. However, trading above key EMAs makes it tough for sellers to gain control. While bulls are likely to stay in charge, a pullback seems expected unless the upcoming data gives the US Dollar a lift. Key technical levels to watch If the US Dollar falls after the data, watch for the 149.30 level comprising the lower band of the immediate trading range and the 200-day EMA as key support. Following that, a quick drop to the 147.30-20 zone, including the 50-day EMA, is possible. However, the quote’s sustained weakness past 147.20 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its July-September downside, close to 144.85. On the upside, buyers need to break above 150.00 to maintain control. If they do, a rise towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels at approximately 150.80 and 153.50 is likely. Buyers are still optimistic, but it all hinges on the US data Despite challenges for USDJPY buyers, solid support levels and potentially positive US data hint at further gains. This is especially true with the Bank of Japan's easing hawkish stance and expectations for fewer rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.
by MTradingGlobal
2
EURUSD: 200-SMA, oversold RSI test bears ahead of ECBEarly Wednesday, EURUSD sees the first daily gains in more than a week, after hitting its lowest point in 10 weeks. In doing so, the Euro pair portrays the market’s consolidation ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and September’s US Retail Sales data. Sellers have a bumpy road ahead In addition to pre-data consolidation, the 200-day SMA and oversold RSI pose challenges for EURUSD bears, indicating limited downside potential. A significant drop may occur only if the ECB disappoints or US data delivers unexpectedly strong signals for the dollar. Technical levels to watch The 200-SMA level surrounding 1.0870 appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD, backed by the oversold RSI. However, a downside break of the same won’t hesitate to drag the prices toward the August month’s low of near 1.0775. Following that, an ascending support line from October 2023, close to 1.0750 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the buyers. On the contrary, July’s high of near 1.0950 could lure EURUSD buyers during a corrective bounce. Following that, the March peak surrounding 1.0980 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet can entertain Euro buyers before testing them with a two-month-old horizontal support-turned-resistance of near 1.1015 and the previous support line stretched from late June, close to 1.1030. Price Consolidation Ahead, But No Trend Change Expected While technical indicators suggest bear exhaustion and a possible corrective bounce for EURUSD, multiple resistances and fundamental factors hinder a reversal of the ongoing two-week bearish trend.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Testing key support as Cable traders await major UK dataGBPUSD pokes a three-month support region as pressure builds ahead of the UK employment and inflation data, as well as the US Retail Sales, set to release this week. Pound Sterling bears flex muscles Despite several technical levels testing the GBPUSD sellers, a potential bear cross between the 100-bar and 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) keeps the bears optimistic. The weakening bullish momentum in the MACD and a steady RSI support the downside outlook. Additionally, a sustained break below an ascending support line from early August, now acting as resistance, favors the bears. Key technical levels to watch The GBPUSD pair is currently held up by a three-month support zone around 1.3040-30, just above the psychological level of 1.3000. If it drops below 1.3000, a quick decline to the late July swing high around 1.2940 and then to early August peaks near 1.2870-60 could follow. In a case where the Pound Sterling remains bearish past 1.2860, it becomes vulnerable to slump toward August’s bottom of near 1.2665. On the flip side, GBPUSD recovery remains elusive below the 100 and 200 EMAs, currently near 1.3145 and 1.3150. A seven-week horizontal resistance zone near 1.3230-40 and a previous support line around 1.3330 also pose challenges for Cable buyers. If bulls can push past 1.3330, a rally toward the last monthly high near 1.3435 is possible. Sellers stay in control While robust technical support is challenging GBP/USD sellers, a dovish outlook for the Bank of England and anticipated weak UK data, alongside rising hawkish sentiment from the Fed, may keep bears in control. Upcoming data could create some volatility, but the bearish sentiment remains strong.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold: Bulls seek $2,647 breakout and US data validationGold prices continue to recover after the US inflation data, despite staying within a two-week bearish trend. Early Friday, buyers look forward to the first readings of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Inflation Expectations for October, along with the September Producer Price Index (PPI). Bulls brace for fresh record high Whether it's the US Dollar's muted reaction to better-than-forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI), optimism around potential stimulus from China, or expectations of softer US data, gold prices aim for a fresh all-time high. Technically, the recent breakout above the 100-SMA, bullish MACD signals, and a positive RSI (14) reinforce the upward momentum. Technical levels to watch Among the key technical levels, $2,647 gains immediate attention as it comprises the top of the bearish channel, a break of which will defy the fortnight-long bearish chart pattern. Following that, the precious metal’s quick jump toward the all-time high surrounding $2,685 can’t be ruled out. Moreover, a clear breakout past $2,685 would signal strong momentum for gold buyers, potentially paving the way for a rise beyond the $2,700 mark. On the downside, the 100-SMA at $2,636 provides immediate support for gold prices, alongside an upward-sloping trend line from early August near the $2,600 mark. If XAUUSD falls below $2,600, the focus will shift to the bottom of the bearish channel and the 200-SMA, which are near $2,595 and $2,580, respectively. Notably, if prices break below $2,580, gold could enter a short-term bearish trend, potentially targeting the $2,540-$2,530 range. Upside looks promising With expectations of lower Fed rates and potential softness in upcoming US data, combined with bullish technical indicators, gold prices seem poised for upward movement. This bullish outlook could change only if the US statistics challenge the likelihood of two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would negatively impact the US Dollar—an outcome that appears unlikely.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD: Bears focus on 1.0800 and US Inflation cluesEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in eight weeks as traders await September's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, especially after the previous day’s FOMC Minutes drowned the Euro pair. Bears keep the driver’s seat Apart from the US Dollar’s run-up post-Fed Minutes, the EURUSD pair’s confirmation of “Double Tops” bearish chart formation and a clear break of a 15-week-old rising support line add strength to the downside bias. It’s worth noting, however, that the oversold RSI (14) line and sluggish MACD signals challenge intraday sellers, along with the pre-data consolidation. Key technical levels to watch The 50% Fibonacci level from the EURUSD’s June to September rise, around 1.0940, limits immediate downside. The next significant support is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.0870, known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio.” If the price breaks below 1.0870, it could lead to a drop toward the bearish target from the "Double Tops" pattern, around 1.0800. On the upside, the EURUSD recovery is unlikely unless it surpasses the 1.1010 level. The previous support line, now acting as resistance, is near 1.1000. In a case where the Euro buyers manage to stay onboard past 1.1010, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the double tops, respectively near 1.1085 and 1.1200, will be on their radars. Further downside expected While an oversold RSI and potentially softening US inflation data may pose challenges for US Dollar bulls, EURUSD bears remain encouraged. The confirmation of a bearish chart formation, combined with the European Central Bank's (ECB) more dovish stance compared to the Federal Reserve (Fed), keeps the sellers optimistic about further declines.
by MTradingGlobal
2
GBPUSD: Focus on 50-SMA, key horizontal support and Fed MinutesGBPUSD struggles to hold onto early gains after bouncing off a three-month support level. As bearish momentum builds, traders closely watch for insights from the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Multiple catalysts favoring Cable sellers The Pound Sterling is finding it hard to sustain a rebound from the 12-week-old support zone. Bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14) add to the negative sentiment. Additionally, last week's confirmation of a bearish rising wedge pattern enhances the resolve of GBPUSD sellers, pointing to continued downward pressure. Key technical levels to watch While sellers currently dominate the GBPUSD market, the 50-day SMA around 1.3085 poses an immediate challenge to further declines, with crucial support around 1.3060-1.3040 just below. If these levels break, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.2935 and 1.2780 could test sellers before directing them to the bearish pattern’s theoretical target of 1.2450. A corrective bounce for GBPUSD seems unlikely to gain credence unless it breaks above the wedge's lower line near 1.3280. That said, the immediate resistance levels are at 1.3100 and 1.3200. If the price holds above 1.3280, bulls may aim for a yearly high of approximately 1.3435 and the wedge's upper line around 1.3510. Bears to dominate Considering the bearish technical signals and the potential for the US Dollar to consolidate its previous monthly losses—supported by positive economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve bias—the GBPUSD pair is likely to decline further. This outlook holds unless today’s Fed Minutes and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data underperform, which could dampen the US Dollar's strength.
by MTradingGlobal
2
USDJPY: Sellers pay attention to 146.40, Fed Minutes and US CPIEarly Tuesday, USDJPY remains weak after retreating from a seven-week high. The pair defends the previous day’s pullback from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as traders await key events this week, including the US Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Bulls remain in the driver’s seat Despite the pre-data consolidation and retreat from the 100-EMA, USDJPY's stronghold above the 50-EMA, bullish MACD signals, and a positive RSI (14) suggest an overall upside bias. Important technical levels to watch USDJPY faces immediate downside support in the 147.35-20 range, but the key level to watch is the 50-EMA near 146.40. A break below this could lead to a quick drop to 145.00 and the late September low around 141.65. The 140.45-20 area and the psychological level at 140.00 may pose strong resistance for sellers. On the upside, a break above the 100-EMA around 148.75 won’t be enough for buyers to regain control, as resistance from the 200-EMA and mid-August high near 149.40 will be crucial. If USDJPY stays above 149.40, the 150.00 mark and early 2024 high near 150.90 will be key targets for bulls. Data/events are the key USDJPY's technical outlook is bullish, supported by a hawkish Fed stance following recent comments from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell and the US employment report. However, growing concerns about the Bank of Japan, potential softness in US inflation data, and Powell's challenges in maintaining a hawkish tone could attract sellers to the Yen pair.
by MTradingGlobal
Bitcoin: BTCUSD extends recovery from 200-SMA to trim lossesBitcoin (BTCUSD) rises to a week’s high, continuing its rebound from the 200-SMA and breaking through the 100-bar simple moving average (SMA). BTCUSD bulls aim for a new three-month high! Along with a solid bounce from the 200-SMA, a positive RSI (14) and bullish MACD signals support BTCUSD’s push past the 100-SMA. This indicates potential for more gains, even though the RSI is nearing overbought territory, suggesting limited upward movement soon. Key technical levels to watch… With Bitcoin’s strong recovery from the 200-SMA and a successful run-up beyond the 100-SMA, buyers are ready to challenge a six-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $64,700. However, they may face hurdles at the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement of July-August downside near $65,700 and an upward trendline from late August around $66,900 afterward. On the downside, the 100-SMA around $63,300 is holding BTCUSD up, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support is near $62,200. That said, another key support is found at the 200-day moving average of around $60,700, with the psychological level of $60,000 serving as buyers' last line of defense. Recovery remains preferable… With Bitcoin bouncing back from key moving averages and a potential pullback in the US Dollar due to upcoming US inflation data and FOMC minutes, BTCUSD looks set for further upside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MTradingGlobal
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Gold: “Bullish Pennant” lures XAUUSD buyers on US NFP DayGold prices are starting to rise, reducing weekly losses on the first positive day in three. This reflects a market shift toward the traditional safe-haven asset as investors remain cautious ahead of the US employment report for September, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Buyers remain in control Even though gold has lacked momentum over the past two weeks, it is holding above the late September breakout from a four-month trend line resistance, which now acts as support. The XAUUSD also forms a “Bullish Pennant” pattern, attracting buyers. The rising RSI (14) indicates strength, but the sluggish MACD and pre-NFP jitters are holding back immediate movement in the precious metal. Key technical levels to watch Gold's immediate focus is on the bullish pennant's resistance line, currently near $2,665, which poses a challenge for intraday buyers. Above that, the recent all-time high of $2,685 and the $2,700 mark will attract bulls. If gold trades successfully above $2,700, it could target around $2,735, which is the theoretical goal of the pennant. On the downside, support levels are set at $2,638 and $2,635, thanks to the pennant's bottom line and a long-term resistance-turned-support. Further down, an upward-sloping support line from early August and the 200-SMA will provide additional support for XAUUSD near $2,580 and $2,560, respectively. Gold bulls can overlook pullbacks Although US employment data may pose challenges for gold buyers, several strong support levels make it tough for sellers to regain control. This suggests that bulls can stay confident, even if prices experience a pullback—unless there’s a significant drop below the 200-SMA.
OANDA:XAUUSD
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EURUSD: Bears seek confirmation from “Double Tops” and US NFPEarly Thursday, EURUSD prints a five-day losing streak, reaching its lowest point in three weeks. The Euro pair traders are holding their breath for the September US employment report, especially after strong data from ADP and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Sellers approach key supports In addition to strong US data and hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell, softer inflation in the Eurozone is adding pressure on the EURUSD pair. A clear drop below the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) keeps bearish sentiment alive. Plus, the lack of an oversold RSI (14) and bearish signals from the MACD suggest further weakness ahead. Important levels to watch With the EURUSD pair breaking below the 50-EMA and facing bearish technical and fundamental factors, it looks poised to test the previous monthly low around 1.1000. However, a six-month-old support line will likely challenge sellers around 1.0980. Importantly, the convergence of the 100-EMA and an ascending support line from late June, near 1.0960, is a crucial level to monitor. A drop below this level could push prices toward the target of the “Double Tops” pattern, around 1.0800. Alternatively, the 50-EMA around 1.1045 serves as the immediate barrier for any recovery in the EURUSD pair. If the bulls can break through this level, they’ll face further resistance at 1.1100 and the “Double Tops” around 1.1200. A push above 1.1200 would challenge the current bearish trend and open the door for buyers to target the 2023 peak of approximately 1.1275. Bears reign is about to be challenged Overall, the EURUSD pair looks bearish in the short term, but there’s limited downside potential before reaching crucial technical levels. This means upcoming data and events will play a vital role in determining the next move.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: “Rising Wedge” signals selling pressure on PoundGBPUSD experienced its biggest decline in a week the previous day as the US Dollar strengthened ahead of the September jobs data. The Pound Sterling tested a bearish rising wedge pattern but managed to bounce back from the lower line of this formation. Despite this slight recovery, traders are cautious and watching closely as they await the US ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday, followed by the important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. Sellers flex muscles… Besides the US Dollar’s rebound before the key US data, bearish MACD signals also keep the GBPUSD sellers hopeful. However, the nearly oversold conditions of RSI (14), the quote’s sustained trading beyond the 200-SMA, and downbeat expectations from the US statistics suggest a long and bumpy road for the bears. Technical levels to watch… If GBP/USD falls below 1.3240, it will confirm a bearish rising wedge pattern, making this level critical for traders. Another important support level is the 200-SMA at 1.3180. Should the pair break below this, it may target the horizontal support zone around 1.3030, with 1.3000 serving as a psychological level. Further declines could lead to August's low near 1.2665 and possibly down to the wedge's target of 1.2370. On the upside, the GBPUSD pair faces resistance at 1.3310 and 1.3360, with the latest peak around 1.3435. If the pair breaks above 1.3435, it will encounter the top line of the rising wedge near 1.3465. Successfully moving past 1.3465 could set the stage for a rally toward the February 2022 high of about 1.3645. Expect a price pullback, but not a significant drop Overall, the GBPUSD buyers appear to be losing momentum, with sellers positioned near the bottom of the wedge and the 200-SMA. However, potential weakness in US data and several support levels make it challenging for sellers to gain full control.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Recovery remains elusive below 146.30On Tuesday morning, USDJPY gained momentum, continuing its recovery from a support level that had been holding for two months. It’s getting closer to the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while still within a bearish trend that started in early August. This rise reflects the US Dollar's bounce after Fed Chair Jerome Powell eased expectations for two more 0.50% rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024. However, traders look forward to upcoming US employment data and Japanese reports to see how the market will move. Bulls flex muscles for a long road ahead… In addition to bouncing off the two-month support zone, an upward trend in the RSI (14) and a potential bullish crossover on the MACD are boosting the USDJPY's rise toward the key EMA. However, the ongoing bearish trend channel and differing monetary policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could create challenges for the bulls. Key technical levels to watch… In the short term, the 200-EMA around 144.75 and the upper line of the bearish channel near 146.30 are significant hurdles for USDJPY buyers. If they push past these levels, the pair could rise toward the mid-August high around 149.40 and possibly hit the 150.00 mark. It's important to note that the 152.00 level seems to be the last stronghold for Yen sellers. On the flip side, the horizontal support area between 141.75 and 141.65 offers some stability for USDJPY in the short term, protecting it from a drop toward the monthly low and the bottom of the bearish channel near 139.55 and 138.75. If the pair breaks below 138.75, the mid-2023 low of around 137.20 may serve as the final defense for buyers. The road toward the north appears long and bumpy While technical indicators hint at a potential recovery for USDJPY, the underlying fundamentals pose challenges for a sustained bullish move. Buyers should be cautious before making large investments.
by MTradingGlobal