NIFTY- A strong move is about to come?An index analysis idea after many many months.
Reason:- Today, we saw a short covering 400 points up move in Nifty with an ATH closing.
What is the chart speaking now?
Nifty has given daily closing above 22800 which was a strong supply zone.
23000 is a psychological resistance in Nifty now.
As from chart, it is clear that our dear Nifty is trading in a channel and 23100-23150 is the next supply zone. If we see a consolidation near 23000, we might see this resistance getting broken and strong bull run till 25000 should be expected.
However, there are high chances of bull trap getting formed in this zone , especially 4th June being an eventful day which is just 2 weeks away from now. I am expecting a highly volatile market till June end.
Event
GBPUSD keeps bearish consolidation towards 1.3320 on UK GDP dayGBPUSD posts a corrective pullback from the yearly low of around 1.3425 ahead of the UK data dump, comprising preliminary readings of the UK Q3 GDP. Even so, the cable pair needs a daily closing beyond September’s bottom of 1.3411, as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.3460, to convince short-term buyers. Even so, lows marked in July and 200-SMA, respectively around 1.3575 and 1.3845, become tough nuts to crack for the bulls.
Meanwhile, oversold RSI conditions may trigger corrective pullback on the way to the four-month-old support line near 1.3320. Following that, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and October 2020 peak, close to 1.3270 and 1.3175 in that order, will question the GBPUSD bears before directing them to the sub-1.3000 area. Overall, the sterling remains in the bearish trajectory but intermediate pullbacks can’t be ruled out.
EURUSD stays inside falling wedge, US Durable Goods Orders eyedEURUSD bears take a breather around weekly low, after a two-day downtrend, during early Wednesday. Although risk-on mood helps the EURUSD to consolidate weekly losses, the likely firmer US Durable Goods Orders print keeps the bears hopeful. Additionally, the quote’s sustained trading inside a broad falling wedge since early June and a recent drop below 10-DMA joins bearish MACD signals to add technical assent to the bearish expectations. That said, the yearly low surrounding 1.1520 is on the cards ahead of the stated wedge’s support line near 1.1475. During the fall, March 2020 peak close to the 1.1490 may offer an intermediate halt.
On the contrary, an upside clearance of the 10-DMA, around 1.1620, may direct short-term buyers towards the monthly peak of 1.1668. However, bulls are less likely to take the risk of entries until witnessing a successful break of 1.1725, comprising the wedge’s resistance line. Following that, hopes of the trend reversal can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that the corrective bounce following the US Durable Goods Orders should be taken with a pinch of salt as the key data/event is Thursday’s US Q3 GDP and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
GBPUSD prints bullish flag as EU-UK jostle over BrexitGBPUSD buyers await for Brexit headlines as the Cable gyrates inside a bullish flag chart pattern on the four-hour play. The European Union (EU) diplomats aren’t likely to get a warm welcome in London on their arrival for Brexit talks. The reason could be linked to the comments from UK’s Brexit policymaker David Frost, conveying his discomfort with the bloc proposal for NI border. However, the Fed tapering concerns remain elevated ahead of Thursday’s US Q3 GDP and underpin the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. Hence, the quote is likely to remain firmer but further upside needs a clear break of 1.3815 hurdle. The same will confirm the bullish chart pattern, directing the pair further towards the 1.400 psychological magnet. During the rally, September’s peak of 1.3912 may probe the bulls.
Alternatively, the monthly support line near 1.3750 offers immediate support to the GBPUSD prices during the pullback, ahead of the stated flag’s support line near 1.3725. Should the quote remains weak past 1.3725, the 1.3700 round figure and 200-SMA level near 1.3685 may probe the bears before directing them towards the monthly low of 1.3430. Overall, GBPUSD bulls keep the reins ahead of important Brexit talks.
Gold bears hold controls below $1,800, ECB awaitedGold remains depressed around the lowest in two weeks as market sentiment sours ahead of the key European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Having stepped back from a two-month-old horizontal resistance last Friday, gold prices dropped below 200-DMA and 50-DMA during the current week. The downside momentum recently gains support from bearish MACD and an absence of oversold RSI to direct the sellers towards June’s low near $1,750. However, $1,760 and August 18 low close to $1,774 may act as intermediate halts.
On the contrary, gold buyers should retake controls if the ECB hawks dominate while announcing the widely chattered PEPP tapering. Even so, 50-day and 200-day SMAs, respectively near $1,798 and $1,809, can challenge the bulls ahead of directing them to the crucial horizontal hurdle surrounding $1,834. To sum up, gold needs market optimism, which is less likely to pop up from today's ECB and hence bears can keep the reigns.