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Expiry

PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 22 JUN 2023Weekly Analysis of BankNifty Banknifty is up 259pts between 15th to 22nd June i.e. current expiry week. Interestingly, BN was looking at steeper cuts on 15th - the price action was pretty negative. Luckily that level is still sacrosanct and has formed an interim support as we had one more retest @ 20th June. Today's Analysis The major anomaly that stands out in today's trade is the inverted V shaped pattern. 8 consecutive green candles to rise 324pts ~ 0.74% and then 5 consecutive red candles to fall 377pts ~ 0.86%. We opened inline and the close was in red, down -0.31%, but this unique rise2fall stands out. Nifty50 also had a similar pattern which we will discuss shortly. Its quite normal to expect some choppiness due to expiry, but the magnitude of 300+ move getting negated immediately - looks like a strong hand at play. Pattern similar to low Mcap pump and dump penny stocks. BN has still not managed to cross the 44068 resistance & poses a big question mark on why its not supporting N50 to take out its ATH. Nifty50 on the other hand came prepared to take out the ATH today, unfortunately NiftyIT was not supporting it. BN gave initial push 18886.6 we are just 1pt short of the last ATH hit on 01 Dec 2022. The Narendra Modi factor would be at play here, his current US visit may bring in more job, investment, partnership opportunities & the quick to gain from all these would be the Nifty50 companies. The fall of 108pts ~ 0.57% between 10.25 to 13.05 and then a fall of 102.1pts ~ 0.54% from 13.45 to 15.15 looked quite serious. The support of 18762.9 was held and we closed just above that. The pump-and-dump like pattern even though visible is not creating anomaly in N50 because today's price action in whole looks like a 2 legged downside fall. 1hr TF for N50 has formed a double top like pattern. Further trades below the support of 18762 will give it downside momentum.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 25 MAY 2023 expiryThose who trade banknifty & nifty expiry will be excited to trade bankex & sensex expiry on 26 May 2023. I guess it will be the first expiry to be opened to retail traders ! I just checked the zerodha kite app, the option chain is still not integrated it seems, also the weightage of bank stocks of banknifty (NSE) is not same as bankex (BSE) - so request you to monitor the accurate component stocks before making a wrong decision. --- Weekly Analysis From 18th to 25th of May 2023, banknifty has dropped only 89pts ~ 0.2%. Traders who had taken weekly short straddles or short iron fly would have been highly benefited. Banknifty is able to hold its ground very well. After 11th May, it has not even fallen back to its first legitimate support level of 43253. Thats where we need to credit the bulls. I strongly felt we might breach support today, but the 14.15 hourly candle (+181pts) really surprised me. --- Today's analysis We opened inline and fell in the perfect slope as per the momentum set yesterday. There was no surge in volatility or abrupt moves, the fall was linear, steady and slow. At 11.30 there was a brief recovery till 12.20. The fall after that from 43601 to 43390 was looking like a possible candidate for further follow-up selling. Unfortunately that did not come and instead we had a reversal of 323pts that helped banknifty close the day with no loss. We have been seeing the 14.30 to close moves on all expiry days, it seems its very easy for the big boys to play out their strategy late in the day. The option premiums are unaffected as the decay has eaten into all the juice and just the near ATM strikes are all that matters. The real moves only if it comes early in the day will set a directional trend. Since we have expiries very often now, its quite possible to get the results with very little disruption. Although its good for option sellers in the short term - what it does is reduce the premiums in the long run. --- 15mts chart is the perfect range bound flattish pattern. There was a brief period when we just broke down from the usual range. Due to this break, I was assuming we will have more downward momentum. Only to have ended the day with worthless PUTS. --- 1hr has formed an odd shaped triple top, due the the awkwardness of this shape - I am not even pretty sure if it will work or not. This is formed near the ATH. Again the value of something bigger happening is highly dependent on the support levels of 43253 getting broken. As long as that level remain intact - whatever pattern that gets formed will not count.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Bank Nifty - 23 May 2023I expect a Gap Up opening in NSE:BANKNIFTY Nifty might fall till the Zone Marked to retest and the bounce back up to the targets. Target 1 - 44060 BankNifty is quite interesting today as NSE:CNXFINANCE Expiry ...!!! it takes Perfect Support/Resistance on Trend Lines. it forms a Triangle Pattern . Retested a 'W' pattern. My levels and views chnage depending on market opening...!!! Trade or invest according to your analysis. This is just my view. <----- 3MRT Trading ----->
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by Harish-P
1
Nifty - 23 May 2023I expect a Gap Up opening in NSE:NIFTY Nifty might fall till the Zone Marked to retest and the bounce back up to the targets. Target 1 - 18360 Target 2 - 18400 All sellers are taken out according to chart, so to bring in Sellers, NSE:NIFTY might form series of Lower Highs and trap them. Don't forget today is NSE:CNXFINANCE Expiry...!!! My levels and views chnage depending on market opening...!!! Trade or invest according to your analysis. This is just my view. <----- 3MRT Trading ----->
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Harish-P
1
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 MAY 2023 finniftyThe real move came a little late today, from 12.45 to close wherein NSE:BANKNIFTY gave up 403pts ~ 0.93%. I was expecting the fall to come in the morning session - but the finnifty expiry trades would have limited this damage to a great extent. For some reason Axis Bank and IndusInd bank was quite strong today counter balancing the fall in SBI. Remember the Fibonacci discussion we had yesterday - seems like its playing its part, but not until all the strike premiums got eroded on NSE:CNXFINANCE .  The late movements on the index has become a mainstay these days - it is a safe strategy for the big boys not to burn their pockets. So today banknifty has taken out 1 support level at 43253, at 15.10 (5mts TF). All that while the markets were slowly grinding up, I was also quite surprised by the strength showed by the bulls today - with a negative sentiment prevailing they were not giving up. It took 4 red candles from 13.45 to 14.00 just to shake them. --- 15mts TF has not turned bearish yet, we would need a close below 42576 for that. At any point in the next 3 sessions if NSE:BANKNIFTY is able to take out 43700 levels then the chart will look bullish. So if the bears has to do something - now is the time. --- 1hr TF is shown with the FIB levels, today's reversal came at 78.6% retracement level and not at 61.8% (so my first assumption was wrong). Also the strength of the bulls were too strong that my bearish opinions were weakly held. --- Finnifty had a similar pattern to banknifty, but the support provided by HDFC in the early part of the day was quite evident. The FIB levels are exactly same for both the indices - today's reversal came exactly at the resistance zone of 19421. From an expiry stand point, the margin requirements on finnifty options are comparatively lower giving a higher returns for the same risk vs banknifty. Will NSE:CNXFINANCE gain more popularity than banknifty due to this??
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 04 May 2023 - expiryWeekly Analysis NSE:BANKNIFTY has gone up by 1.58% ~ 678pts from last Thursday to today. It has taken out 2 crucial resistance points in the process and nearing the ATH now. Really impressive performance - the banks in India are standing out with their outperformance. Global financial institutions are melting down and many US banks are trading less than 50 to 60% below their ATHs --- Today's Analysis Banknifty opened inline today and had a parabolic upside move, something that we usually see during range breakouts. At present banknifty is not in a range, so the price action could even be due to short covering. Of the 0.86% gained today, 0.71% aggressive move came between 14.15 to 15.10 - once the HDFC declared its results. Since today was an expiry day, the last 1 hr move would have shocked many.  43500 CE option chart would have amazed many by a 530% upmove between 14.15 to close. When the VIX is low, volatility is at its lowest point - the option buyer gets a rag-to-riches kind of story like this every week. The same spike was available on 18200 CE Nifty50. I was not really interested in fishing for these opportunities even though the risk:reward looked interesting. Mainly because I prefer to sell the options first rather than buy. --- 15mts TF is showing today's move quite prominently. Once it took out the swing high of 02 May there was no stopping. Most of the option traders would be frustrated as the moves are coming only in the last 1 hr - this would spoil their trading plans. Also during low volatility & low option premium periods - positional trading gives far more returns than intraday. --- 1hr TF shows the new higher-high that got formed. In yesterday's report we discussed the possibility of the same happening. What is more surprising is how it happened today even after FED raised interest rates to 5.25% & SP:SPX tanked 0.7% overnight. --- NSE:NIFTY has also created a higher-high and closed above 17976 conclusively. The next resistance is at 18419
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 26 APR 2023I am sure most of the traders would be surprised with the kind of bullish price action we saw after 10am. Since SP:SPX closed -1.58%, NDQ -1.89% yesterday - most of them including me expected NSE:NIFTY and NSE:BANKNIFTY to close in deep red today.  The gap down opening at 42559 was perfectly at the support level and from there we wont only 163pts down to reverse the direction & sentiment. We had a rally of 1.01% ~ 426pts from the LOD. The price action at the SR level is worth mentioning as we spent 55mts there before breaking out. There is no surprise with banknifty closing in green as bullish is the prevailing trend on the 1hr chart - but to have outperformed the US markets is real something.  Although I do not know what is the reason - it is worth researching on as the US market dips were due to the banking sentiment yesterday - First republic bank, UBS. This literally had no impact on our banks is something thats worth mentioning. --- Nifty50 had a similar chart with banknifty but it looks more positive. It has caught up to the recent swing high of 13th April indicating the weakness in IT may have got overshadowed by other performers. --- 15mts chart is now looking bullish again after yesterday's subdued performance. The next resistance is seen at 43012. The support of 42576 which held its ground today will give the bulls a lot of hope today. --- 1hr is also looking strongly bullish. The independent islands formed by the gap-ups shows the strong momentum too. Although hard to believe - banks in India are proving to be very strong & resilient to global bad news. My question is are the foreign institutional investors also thinking so?
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty & Analysis of 25 APR 2023 + Finnifty EXPFor traders who are playing NSE:BANKNIFTY expiries on Thursdays can play the same trades on FinNifty on Tuesdays. The margin requirements are lower and now since the option premiums are staying low - the ROI in finnifty is better than banknifty. Today was a flat day, open was at 42731 and then it was struggling to keep the momentum up. We had a gradual rise upto 42865 by 11.20 and then we started falling.  The fall itself was not convincing, only a 196pts dip & then it got bought into. This time we did not take the swing high but maxed out at 42827 @ 14.40. The second fall was showing a bit more strength but we ran out of time, we had a dip of 220pts from 14.40 to 15.20 Even after all this banknifty still closed in green, up 42pts. The expiry on Fininfty would have played its part which we will discuss shortly. --- 15 mts TF also showing a bit of tiredness after a good session yesterday. Will banknifty protect the 42576 support is what we need to look at. In spite of all the bullishness yesterday I seriously thought we might have a retest of 42576 today. --- 1hr TF has made a rounded top as of now. Its not confirmation of a top as-it-is. We would need further price action to confirm that. The signs of momentum tiredness was visible in last 4 candles of today. --- Coming to the NSE:CNXFINANCE expiry, 18971 SR zone was active today. There were 3 tests on the 15mts TF today. I was ready with the 18900 PUT option but the support break came in very late ~ 15.15 today. At 12.30 the same put option was active and might have continued to be in the money if not for the quick rejection candle at 12.45 wherein it recovered 0.24%. This SR zone was impacting the movements on the banknifty as well. For the expiry traders it was a perfect day as the closing was flat and they would have got the max bang for the straddles.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
NIFTY important support resistance areasNSE:NIFTY important resistance support areas in nifty for expiry, nifty hasnt been giving much movemnt in last 2 sessions, dont hold options for long as decay might become fast if nifty remains slow and short ranged today as well. trade light quantity and stay strong with proper risk management, if possible avoid trading current expiry options for 1st session, prefer next expiry options as decay wont be an issue if nifty stays slow and short movement is given.
NSE:NIFTY
by ajinkyadiwakar717
Nifty: Important levels for trade day 13 April 2023We are looking at hourly chart of Nifty. Result season has officially begun with TCS results out Let’s see what Data is telling us… Index Futures Retail traders squared off 7099 Long positions and added 10005 Short Contracts FIIs added 7717 Long contracts and squared off 11004 Short Positions Pro traders added 3776 Long contracts and squared off 1589 Short contracts Index Call Option Retail traders added 2.55 Lakh Call Long contracts and also added 2.59 Lakh Call Short Contracts FIIs added 57.86 K Call Long contracts and added 78.23 K Call Short Positions Pro traders added 1.30 Lakh Call Long contracts and added 1.06 Lakh Call Short contracts Index Put Option Retail traders added 6.43 Lakh Put Long contracts and added 5.29 Lakh Put Short Contracts FIIs added 1.22 Lakh Put Long contracts and added 1.12 Lakh Put Short Positions Pro traders added 1.95 Lakh Put Long contracts and added 3.20 Lakh Call Short contracts Given the chart set up and Data inputs Important levels on Nifty spot for 13th April 2023 Important levels on the upside 17839 / 17872 / 17911 Important level on the downside 17743 / 17712 / 17678 In Nifty Futures, 17833 is key for Nifty Futures. Below that next level on Futures is 17766 Take care & safe trading..!!!
NSE:NIFTY
by indiamarketoutlook
BANKNIFTY 29th March MONTHLY OPTIONS IDEA The Bank Nifty index has been on a roller-coaster ride in the past few weeks, with sudden dips and recoveries. With the expiry of March monthly options coming up tomorrow, traders are eager to find profitable trade ideas. The Bank Nifty is the index that represents the performance of the banking sector in India, comprising of the 12 most liquid and large capitalized banking stocks. The Bank Nifty monthly options are widely traded and provide ample opportunities for traders to make profits. In this idea, we will explore some Bank Nifty 29th March monthly options ideas that traders can consider while trading tomorrow.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Trader_Hu_Mai
4
#CNXFINANCE #Finifty - expiry viewFinnifty is trading below budget day low and is going to face resistance around it, however on 45 min tf the structure which is currently developing is suggesting that it may be forming a reversal pattern and anticipation is that inverted H&S pattern is under development. As long as recent swing low is protected it can take support at the trendline which is coming from lower side as support and has already given a falling counter trendline resistance breakout on Friday closing. As the price gets more and more congested into this zone, possibility of inverted h&s formation and upside breakout may be on higher side. Overall, the setup is looking good to play some directional buying by Tuesday expiry if it gets matured by that time, keep this setup in watchlist for some expiry special :)
NSE:CNXFINANCELong
by aktradelearning
Nifty: December monthly Expiry view Nifty - Nifty has had a nice pullback from the lows of 17780 odd levels this week - today it respected 50 day EMA at 18164 odd levels - Will the pullback continue or will it stop??? Let's look at Futures and Options data ____________________________________________________________________________________ F&O Data analysis ____________________________________________________________________________________ Futures Data - Retail participants booked profits / exited 4.4 K Long Contracts & added 7.67 K Short contracts - FIIs added merely 580 Long Contracts and exited from 2.80 K Short Contracts - Pro traders added 5.32 K Long contracts and exited from 1.09 K Short contracts Call Option - Retail participants added 5.93 Lakhs Call Long Contracts & added 4.82 Lakh Call Short contracts - FIIs added 2 K Call Long Contracts and added only 778 Call Short Contracts - Pro traders added 92.56 K Call Long contracts and added 2.04 Lakh Call Short contracts Put Option - Retail participants added 3.85 Lakh Put Long Contracts & added 3.80 Lakh Put Short contracts - FIIs added 5.43 K Put Long Contracts and added 11.85 K Short Contracts - Pro traders added 70.15 K Put Long contracts and added 88.14 K Put Short contracts Put Call ratio is at 1.13 (Neutral zone) ____________________________________________________________________________________ What we make from the data reading... Retail traders have been exiting from Long position since last 3 days. FIIs are in holiday mood ( not trading actively in F&O) Pro traders have been exiting from short positions in Futures in last 3 days and have added Long position in Futures today. They have used Options to hedge their position. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Conclusion and important levels for the day As I am writing, our Dow baba (Dow Jones) is down 300 points, but based on Nifty Chart set up and F&O data, prima facie I'm not expecting a big down fall. The battle is our space in between Pro traders and retail traders. My closing figure for Nifty expiry day On the lower side 18048 / 18033 / 18011 On the upper side 18155 / 18181 / 18233 With tomorrow being expiry day, pls understand Markets are dynamic and data changes every moment. This view can change during market hours and I may or may not be able to update the same. Trading Options on expiry day require more skills, more study and then there is luck that may favor you :-). Pls do your research and follow risk management. Read the disclaimer carefully. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Do let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful. Like and Follow for more ideas like these...!!! Take care & safe trading...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTY
by indiamarketoutlook
Nifty: Was I lucky, was it a fluke or was it a reward for study?Yesterday night, I had put forth an analysis where I had suggested that not expecting a big down day closing today. Remember that - Dow was down 300 points - Asian markets were down but I had clearly written that this is not about world markets. With FIIs in holiday mood, our Nifty movement will depend on the battle between retail traders and Pro traders. My expectation based on study was Nifty likely to close higher towards 18155 / 18181 / 18233 (those have been highlighted) in yesterday's analysis. Nifty after opening gap down traded at the lower end of the channel till 1 pm. 15 minute candle closing low was 18003 and once it came back above 18011 and sustained, we suggested taking a Long trade at 18017... again it is there in the timeline... Once it broke past 18048 it raced towards the upper end of the channel making a high of 18229 (Broader range given 18233) and then eventually closing the day at 18191 (just 10 points adrift from 18181 level). Not bad I guess.... All the levels identified through analysis have been respected... You can call it a fluke... you can call it a Lucky bouy guess or you can acknowledge that the study paid for the efforts put in... Hope the analysis helped you too. If not, I cant help it. Can't be more precise than this...🤷‍♂️ Take care & safe trading...!!! To trade with me Do hit the Like button and Follow
NSE:NIFTY
by indiamarketoutlook