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Expiry

The calendar year comes to an end with calm expiry. NIFTY50It is a consolidation expiry. As we discussed, Nifty is in between the ranges. 17200 to 17300, still acting as a resistance. Let's see if there is any upward movement from the channel. My option selling: hey, it's a consolidation option, so sellers make money. The day started with 17050 PE and 17300 CE. I booked 17500CE and 17800 PE with profit. Finally, I sold even 17150 put as well, ending with a good profit. I hope everyone ends this year on a high. My focus for the coming week is on the upper side of 17300 and the lower side of 17000–16900. New Year's greeting
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
Entering into the Christmas Sale Weekly Expiry NIFTY50In this December month, we were blessed with five expiry dates. I would say that the last three expiry dates are like a roller coaster ride, highly volatile. We are entering our 4th week now, and it is a technically correction mode. Technically, a 10% drop from the recent high is referred to as a correction. Look at Nifty50 on Monday. It opened with a huge gap down and the panic selling happened because of the major levels where we know it was taken out. 17000 and 16700. This range is important because it is 10% from the recent high and also a fib range. After the range was broken, the NIFTY50 made a new week low near the 16400 level, then pulled back and closed above 16600.This kind of pull back kills aggressive traders. Tuesday opened with a near 0.96% gap up. Think about it! NIFTY50 as well as a strong rebound. It closed above 16700, so it looks good. In NIFTY50, we can expect the major levels to turn into resistance like Nifty did. Today, resistance is near 17950.We can expect the 17000 level to continue as resistance for the week, so I would be confident about selling at a strike price above 17200 on the downside of 16400 for a safe trade. Keep an eye on the daily candle as well. There is a doji candle . We can expect moments in both directions Make a decision accordingly.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
Might expect a tricky weekly expiry? NIFTY50On Tuesday, we experienced high intraday movement, both high and low. It is good to see 17200–17250 acting as a support, but the 17350–17380 level is resistant twice. Movement frequently kills SL, and we frequently see a bounce back from the 17000–17150 level last week as well. Let's see if it continues again. At the same time, there is price action indicating trend continuation. In my opinion, if any of the indices break down below the lower support level, or if there is rejection near the 17450-17500 level, this is quick action to enter into a weekly option selling position. Let's see if we can get a good premium above 17600 and below 17000 for a safe expiry.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
21-10-21 Bank Nifty - What a Move! And yet it made me sad!A MISSED OPPORTUNITY THAT WOULD HAVE HELPED ME BUY A NEW LAPTOP! Trade Opportunity Date: 21-10-21 Yet another Missed Opportunity-- Bank Nifty at 39550+ Went long 39400 CE at 242 as it was an expiry day and did not want to make the mistake of trading an ATM CE. SL hit at 185 Moved to Nifty 18000 CE as I have not traded Bank Nifty after it cleared 39000 and clearly the SL was an indication that my readings were not good as I had the opportunity to at least place SL at cost or just below the cost. In between checked what happened to the 39400 CE. Surprised to see it at 185! After making a low of 87! The order window was opened by me but realized that the option had decayed to some extent. So suspecting a faster decay if Bank Nifty does not move for some time, i chose not to take the trade. Nifty CE was already in green so chose to play safe. My order would have been for 4 lots or 100 shares. Usually, I don't trade this size but I was expecting a bounce-back as Nifty had been beaten down and that is what usually happens on such days especially when they happen to be the expiry days. After some time I thought of checking where that CE is. I could do so as my Nifty trade was moving on well. 39400 CE was at 553! A few minutes later 600! EOD 632 Assuming I would have held on as I did in Nifty, I may have got 400 points or 100*400 = 40,000! No regrets as I was not ready to take the risk and my Nifty trade was moving on well But this has made my weekend work cut out for sure! This is the potential of Bank Nifty and I will find a way in which I can be part of such moves in the time to come. A few readers/viewers have asked me why I did not cover this huge move in my analysis. The reason is that I mainly analyze Nifty and Bank Nifty is a sub-set if it so it gets covered in any case. How many of you were able to catch this move or like me missed the move? I would love to read your feedback as always! Best wishes for a brighter week which also happens to be the Monthly Expiry week! Umesh 24-10-21
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
NIFTY ends Sep series just above 17600NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -30-09-21 IN SUMMARY OHLC 17,718.90 17,742.15 17,585.35 17,618.15 Close = -93.15 / -0.53% H-L = 157 points VIX 18.4 / -2.34% FII DII: -2128 Crores SGX NIFTY 17613 / -4 points at 1920h. Likely open: Gap-down to flat. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 5 M Chart A gap-down open and then NIFTY cleared 16700 and hit an intraday resistance at 16728 and then came closer to 17650 and then bounced back to hit a high yet again around 17740 and yet again it was then sold-off despite 2 attempts to rise and reclaim 17674 level. It finally broke 17600 and made a low closer to the recent swing low around 17576. The series expired at 17618, barely managing to save the day. It has thus made a lower high and a lower low. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS BAJAJ FINANCE 22.00 INFOSYS 15.00 BAJAJ FINSERV 14.00 ICICI BANK 15.00 HDFC 4.00 ASIAN PAINTS 9.00 HUL 3.00 AXIS BANK 9.00 TITAN 3.00 RELIANCE 8.00 46.00 56.00 Lifter - Draggers = -10 The above indicates that the market breadth was negative. POSITIVES 17600 level was held on to on a closing basis and beyond that I am unable to think of any positive. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY broke the crucial support of 37500 on the way down. NIFTY is not even able to cross 17750 leave aside end the day above that mark. HDFC BANK’s inability to hold on to the 1600 level is a concern. RELIANCE has yet again failed to end above 2550 which may hurt NIFTY as if it breaks 2500 on the way down, it could drag NIFTY significantly. TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: This remains as it is -- NIFTY 17500-18100 BANK NIFTY 36800-37800 is too wide a range for the last day of the week. However, for BANK NIFTY range is never an issue on either side so better be prepared. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS A disappointing end to the series where NIFTY kept hitting fresh higher levels on a regular basis. Once again, FTSE was in modest to good green and NIFTY ended in deep red is quite an unusual thing. On 29-9, DIIs had bought in excess of 3000 Crores so it is indeed surprising that they did not make any effort to close above 17700. FIIs seem to have hit the Sell button as they would have banked gains for the Q3 ending today. Usually, when the monthly expiry is in red, the next session trades in green. Let us see what is in store for us tomorrow and in the October series. Many believe that October of each year is a good trending month - we have to see which side it is going to trend. It is generally believed that in October market tends to hit higher levels in readiness for Diwali. The recent performances of the indices show no such intentions. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 30-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Indices Go All Over, Yet End Almost Jaise TheNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -09-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17312.85 / 17379.65 / 17302.7 / 17369.25 H-L = 77 points VIX 13.94 / -3.26% FII DII: +1127 Crores Likely open: From the above, it looks like a flat to positive open but what may happen in the world markets tomorrow CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS A gap-down open was immediately bought into and NIFTY attempted to take out the closing high of yesterday and then gradually sold off. It was a choppy day for the index being the expiry day as there were many tussles between the big heads. The range for the day was only 77 points. NIFTY ended the day in mild green and also held 17300 levels as the low for the day was 17302. Some consolation from yesterday. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters NESTLE 14 BAJAJ FINSERV 07 BHARTI AIRTEL 07 TCS 04 GRASIM 03 TOTAL 35 The Laggards SBI LIFE 11 HDFC BANK 08 RELIANCE 05 BAJAJ FINANCE 05 TITAN 04 TOTAL 33 Lifter - Draggers = +02 POSITIVES NIFTY ended the day in the mild green. NIFTY ended the week at a new ATH though it does not appear to be decisive. NIFTY did not break 17300 on an intraday basis. FIIs DIIs have together bought in excess of 1000 Crores. NEGATIVES NIFTY could not go anywhere near 17400. BANK NIFTY range was just less than 300 points which were evident from the choppy movements and it ended in the red below 36700. The leaders lack momentum and traction. KOTAK BANK appeared strong at the open but by EOD, it has closed on the 200 DMA line - fence-sitting as usual. TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 13-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS There were 3 spells on the 5-minute chart of BANK NIFTY that seemed to have been triggered by Algos. These occurred in the candle starting from 1305, 1435, and 1455. The range was more or less similar but the pact varied. I observed this as I had my trades on and just as I thought I may have to exit the trade at a loss, it spiked and my trade was still in play. The 1455 candle and the one that followed it were game-changers. I was waiting for a dip before 1500h and had kept 36500 CE ready to hit Buy. The premium plummeted and was down 40+ points to 92. As I opened the window and was about to hit the Buy button, I saw that it was back at 132. The point where I had thought of exiting! And then it kept spiking! And in the final 10 minutes, it appeared to be an open secret that the expiry will be below 36700 as the index went above 36700 and immediately dipped and that sealed the fortunes of 36700 CE writers in green. The above series of events makes me wonder if the expiry drama is all staged by those who have the muscle power. From a low of 92 on that candle of 1455-1500, it added 90 more points in premium and the Option expired at 182 . Another interesting thing on the BANK NIFTY chart of 5 minutes chart is the W pattern - is this on account of psychology or algology? What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 09-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
#banknifty view for 2nd Sep'21 #expiry#banknifty view for 2nd Sep'21 #expiry The first word that comes to my mouth is the FOMO effect followed by perfect hammering. Bearish PIN Bar on the daily chart and can be the nail in the coffin for the bulls. Check 19th Feb'21 daily chart and followed up selling, pls check on the chart. If I am right, ABC correction in progress, downside targets 100%, 138% & 161.8% of wave A and extended targets is 2.618 % (levels of chart) E.g. One of the important DP is the weekly low, if the weekly low is broken, then only you will be short else you won't. John Maynard Keynes said, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” So be cautious and flexible as market conditions evolve. Always trade what you see, never trade what you feel. Make this a habit, you won't be requiring any seminar, webinar, or mentor, you will be self-sufficient. Regards, SG
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by subhagghosh
23
Nifty expires Aug series on a flat note NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -26-08-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 16627.95 / 16683.7 / 16603.7 / 16636.9 H-L = 80 points VIX 13.54 / -0.3% FII DII: -919 Crores Likely open: Flat to positive with resistance at 16650-700. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS On a closing basis, Nifty expired the series on a flat note. Nifty made a lower high and a lower low. The trading range for the day has been reducing over the last few sessions. This may indicate either a breakout or a break-down. Yet another indecisive Doji made by Nifty on the daily charts. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 03 ICICI BANK 02 HDFC LIFE 02 BRITANNIA 01 HUL 01 TOTAL 09 The Draggers BHARTI AIRTEL 01 JSW STEEL 01 INFOSYS 01 SBI 01 ITC 01 TOTAL 05 Lifter - Draggers = +05 The above clearly explains why Nifty ended almost flat. It seems all the scrips were too tired or too cautious to move either way. POSITIVES NIFTY ended the series on a very mild positive note. RELIANCE and ICICI BANK helped Nifty stay grounded above 16600. HDFC twins have also maintained sanity for the indices to close on a flat note. DIIs have bought in excess of 1,000 Crores so overall the trend is likely to be up. NEGATIVES Nifty failed to go anywhere near 16700. It made a lower low. FIIs are still in Sell mode with 1900+ Crores in Sell value. MARUTI has been in the negative mode for quite a few sessions. So either it may touch its FIB around 6400 or it may snap back up. Wait and watch for now. TRADING RANGE FOR 27-8-21 The Nifty baseline moves up to 16500-550. The resistances are now from 16650 onwards. BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-35200 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS RELIANCE and ICICI BANK both have moved up by 1%+ and yet their contribution is meager to Nifty. This is puzzling as usually, they make more contributions even with a similar % increase or decrease. I do not know if Bulls managed to bring the Nifty above 16600 or if it was heavy put writing that prevented Nifty from falling further. The close-in indices appear that this has been staged by the Pros. In my view, the expiry was subdued only because of not-so-good global cues. Otherwise, Nifty may have ended above or closer to 16700. What do you feel? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 26-8-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
#banknifty view for 12th Aug'21 #expiry#banknifty view for 12th Aug'21 #expiry Do you see #banknifty weak? No, BN at 35,806 is trading above the majority of SDMA (10/20/50/100) and 5 SDMA is 35,903, and the majority of momentum & trend oscillators are in buy mode. What do I do, go long or go short? I don't see any weakness in the market until 34,861 is breached. Till that time, its buy-in dips the market for higher targets. Do I get a shorting opportunity at higher levels? Yes, might be close to 36,600 to 37,900 areas Where do you see major support for BankNifty ? 35,211 / 35,404 / 35,596 Where do you see major resistance for BankNifty ? 36,372 / 36,631 / 36,891 DZ:- 35,900 On 4 hour time frame:- 50% & 61% projection is placed at 36,905 & 37,563 which may or may not be achieved. E.g. One of the important DP is the weekly low, if the weekly low is broken, then only you will be short else you won't. John Maynard Keynes said, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” So be cautious and flexible as market conditions evolve. Always trade what you see, never trade what you feel. Make this a habit, you won't be requiring any seminar, webinar, or mentor, you will be self-sufficient. Regards, SG
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by subhagghosh
12
#banknifty expiry view for 29th July'21#banknifty expiry view for 29th July'21 Selling pressure will intensify below 34,373 and lower targets goes till 33,823 to 33,671. Buying will only come above 34,956 and will post fresh view if the closure is above 34,956. Short Term Analysis is still bearish:- E.g. One of the important DP is the weekly low, if the weekly low is broken, then only you will be short else you won't. John Maynard Keynes said, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” So be cautious and flexible as market conditions evolve. Always trade what you see, never trade what you feel. Make this a habit, you won't be requiring any seminar, webinar, or mentor, you will be self-sufficient. Regards, SG.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by subhagghosh
4
Banknifty 15 July Expiry SpecialHello Traders, Following are my analysis: Resistance Level : 1. Good Resistance Zone exists at 35700-800. 2. Strongest Resistance at 36000 . 3. Strong Resistance at 35700 * Increasing resistance above 36000. Support Level : 1. 35500 is Strongest Support Level . 2. 35000 is a Strong Support. 3. 35200-500 is Good Support Zone . No Trade Zone : 35600-35700 Sideways Possibility: More Sideways above 35500 to 35800 , if market sustains below 35800 * Imp Point: Buy Above Violet Trend Line above 35800, Short Sell Below Violet Trend Line. If 35400 level is broken then we can see the Gap filling and bounce back from Support Trend Line . This is not Buy and Sell recommendation to any one. This is for education purpose and a helping hand to learn trading in Market. I hope you all like my analysis. Please do share your thoughts into comment section. Please give a like, it motivates me to do analysis and do share with your friends as well.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by kiranrshinde
1
#banknifty analysis for 8th July'2021 #expiry#banknifty analysis for 8th July'2021 DP:- 35,500 (above +ve below -ve) Decision Points :- Important reaction points, which price reacting to movements are 34,653 / 35,095 / 35,358 / 35,555 / 35,800 / 36,126 / 36,293-36,320 E.g. One of the important DP is the weekly low, if the weekly low is broken, then only you will short else you won't. John Maynard Keynes said, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” So be cautious and flexible as market conditions evolve. Always trade what you see, never trade what you feel. Make this a habit, you won't be requiring any seminar, webinar, or mentor, you will be self-sufficient. Regards, SG
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by subhagghosh
2