NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -30-09-21
IN SUMMARY
OHLC
17,718.90
17,742.15
17,585.35
17,618.15
Close = -93.15 / -0.53%
H-L = 157 points
VIX 18.4 / -2.34%
FII DII: -2128 Crores
SGX NIFTY 17613 / -4 points at 1920h.
Likely open: Gap-down to flat.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 5 M Chart
A gap-down open and then NIFTY cleared 16700 and hit an intraday resistance at 16728 and then came closer to 17650 and then bounced back to hit a high yet again around 17740 and yet again it was then sold-off despite 2 attempts to rise and reclaim 17674 level.
It finally broke 17600 and made a low closer to the recent swing low around 17576.
The series expired at 17618, barely managing to save the day.
It has thus made a lower high and a lower low.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
BAJAJ FINANCE
22.00
INFOSYS
15.00
BAJAJ FINSERV
14.00
ICICI BANK
15.00
HDFC
4.00
ASIAN PAINTS
9.00
HUL
3.00
AXIS BANK
9.00
TITAN
3.00
RELIANCE
8.00
46.00
56.00
Lifter - Draggers = -10
The above indicates that the market breadth was negative.
POSITIVES
17600 level was held on to on a closing basis and beyond that I am unable to think of any positive.
NEGATIVES
BANK NIFTY broke the crucial support of 37500 on the way down.
NIFTY is not even able to cross 17750 leave aside end the day above that mark.
HDFC BANK’s inability to hold on to the 1600 level is a concern.
RELIANCE has yet again failed to end above 2550 which may hurt NIFTY as if it breaks 2500 on the way down, it could drag NIFTY significantly.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK:
This remains as it is --
NIFTY 17500-18100
BANK NIFTY 36800-37800 is too wide a range for the last day of the week. However, for BANK NIFTY range is never an issue on either side so better be prepared.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
A disappointing end to the series where NIFTY kept hitting fresh higher levels on a regular basis.
Once again, FTSE was in modest to good green and NIFTY ended in deep red is quite an unusual thing.
On 29-9, DIIs had bought in excess of 3000 Crores so it is indeed surprising that they did not make any effort to close above 17700.
FIIs seem to have hit the Sell button as they would have banked gains for the Q3 ending today.
Usually, when the monthly expiry is in red, the next session trades in green. Let us see what is in store for us tomorrow and in the October series.
Many believe that October of each year is a good trending month - we have to see which side it is going to trend.
It is generally believed that in October market tends to hit higher levels in readiness for Diwali. The recent performances of the indices show no such intentions.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
30-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
IN SUMMARY
OHLC
17,718.90
17,742.15
17,585.35
17,618.15
Close = -93.15 / -0.53%
H-L = 157 points
VIX 18.4 / -2.34%
FII DII: -2128 Crores
SGX NIFTY 17613 / -4 points at 1920h.
Likely open: Gap-down to flat.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 5 M Chart
A gap-down open and then NIFTY cleared 16700 and hit an intraday resistance at 16728 and then came closer to 17650 and then bounced back to hit a high yet again around 17740 and yet again it was then sold-off despite 2 attempts to rise and reclaim 17674 level.
It finally broke 17600 and made a low closer to the recent swing low around 17576.
The series expired at 17618, barely managing to save the day.
It has thus made a lower high and a lower low.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
BAJAJ FINANCE
22.00
INFOSYS
15.00
BAJAJ FINSERV
14.00
ICICI BANK
15.00
HDFC
4.00
ASIAN PAINTS
9.00
HUL
3.00
AXIS BANK
9.00
TITAN
3.00
RELIANCE
8.00
46.00
56.00
Lifter - Draggers = -10
The above indicates that the market breadth was negative.
POSITIVES
17600 level was held on to on a closing basis and beyond that I am unable to think of any positive.
NEGATIVES
BANK NIFTY broke the crucial support of 37500 on the way down.
NIFTY is not even able to cross 17750 leave aside end the day above that mark.
HDFC BANK’s inability to hold on to the 1600 level is a concern.
RELIANCE has yet again failed to end above 2550 which may hurt NIFTY as if it breaks 2500 on the way down, it could drag NIFTY significantly.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK:
This remains as it is --
NIFTY 17500-18100
BANK NIFTY 36800-37800 is too wide a range for the last day of the week. However, for BANK NIFTY range is never an issue on either side so better be prepared.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
A disappointing end to the series where NIFTY kept hitting fresh higher levels on a regular basis.
Once again, FTSE was in modest to good green and NIFTY ended in deep red is quite an unusual thing.
On 29-9, DIIs had bought in excess of 3000 Crores so it is indeed surprising that they did not make any effort to close above 17700.
FIIs seem to have hit the Sell button as they would have banked gains for the Q3 ending today.
Usually, when the monthly expiry is in red, the next session trades in green. Let us see what is in store for us tomorrow and in the October series.
Many believe that October of each year is a good trending month - we have to see which side it is going to trend.
It is generally believed that in October market tends to hit higher levels in readiness for Diwali. The recent performances of the indices show no such intentions.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
30-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
