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19 Jan ’24 — Are you ready for the BANKEX expiry tomorrow?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ The stance for BankNifty was bearish yesterday and it is still bearish today. The highs and lows of today were more or less matching with the levels of yesterday. Visually the price action is more negative than yesterday, the reason being the highs hit today were due to gap-up whereas yesterday’s high was via fighting it out during trading hours. 4mts chart From the highs to the lows today, there was a swing range of 688 points. Just that the gap-up hides this in plain sight, after all the index closed flat at -0.03%. The change in holiday schedule is going to impact BankNifty the most as BANKEX expiry which was on Monday will have to be conducted tomorrow. Quite sure the traders were not prepared for this event and the opening minutes could create some chaos. We are not even sure if the technical analysis will work out tomorrow. 63mts chart Look at the encircled region - all RED candles. How many analysts do you know who would say these many consecutive red candles are a bullish sign? None. Despite this, BankNifty could move up tomorrow as the news flow of holiday change was not priced in. BANKEX has a close correlation with BankNifty and logically traders would use the opening minutes to build expiry positions tomorrow. Since FIIs were not informed, they would come tomorrow unprepared. If there is sanity tomorrow and BankNifty starts moving downwards - the first level to watch out for is 45399. To go bullish - it has to climb 1765 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
10 Jan ’24 — Banks did not have the bull-punch today despite N50BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BN fell 383pts and most importantly breached a support level (47539). Even though the start of the week was good, the bulls gave away the control to the bears by Friday. 16mts chart link BankNifty Today Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Unlike Nifty50, BankNifty did not have a strong pullback today. There was no wedge like formation, but the negativity was missing totally. The open was gap-down from which BN recovered decently and then remained range bound. BN was trading in green for most of the time today. 4mts chart link BN is not out of the bearish hold yet. The first thing that has to be taken care of is the 47539 resistance and the best way to take that out is via a gap up. It has become quite predictable these days, the way to go past a level is via a gap-up or gap-down. Neither the bulls nor the bears have the nerve to battle it out during the trading day. 63mts chart link Our stance remains bearish even for tomorrow. Will switch to neutral if we have a 63mts candle above the resistance level marked in blue. Even though we have the Nifty50 expiry tomorrow, the options premiums are looking pretty dead. Hoping BN strikes will have some juice for tomorrow.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
27th Dec ’23 -BankNifty gets a NEW ATH inside the ASC. channelBankNifty Analysis BankNifty is still caught between the upper & lower end of the ascending channel. Even then it managed to scale to a new all-time high of 48347. Half of the traders would have thought BN would have expiry today, the best way to remember would be to use post-it-notes saying BN expires with Nifty on the last week of the month. 4mts chart link - click here BN also had a slight gap-up, but the leg1 of the rally was quite strong. We gained 480pts ~ 1.01% till 12.07 before giving away 356pts ~ 0.74%. Leg2 it rallied 458pts ~ 0.96% but not enough to break out of the channel top line. 63mts chart link - click here Once BN got back into the channel - it is finding it difficult to break down or break away. Somehow the boundaries are getting respected. BN hitting a new top ensured that the stance changed from neutral to bullish. I am seriously thinking if the momentum is intact we should be getting that channel breakout tomorrow. Since it is a monthly expiry a bit of volatility cannot be ruled out as well.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
27th Dec ’23 - Nifty & BankNifty stance changed to BullishNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I am forced to change my stance from bearish to neutral as the price action now shows a higher tendency to go up rather than down. Those strong RED candles of 20th Dec still haunt me — but it has failed to gather the momentum of the other bears.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty got a stance change from bearish to neutral yesterday and look what happened today, once we took out the ATH - the followthrough momentum pumped another 75+ pts. Trading was not profitable for me today even though the charts do not show any visual proof of anomalies. I guess it had more to do with the VIX staying so high that the premiums were not behaving as usual. We had a gap up followed by a steadily rising price to take out the ATH by 12.03. This prompted me to change my stance from neutral to bullish. Then we fell 97pts almost giving me a shock. For a moment I thought my decision to change the stance was a blunder. I got the reassurance only when we had the 2nd leg of the rally that surged 170pts ~ 0.79% to take Nifty to a new ATH of 21675. Later I came to know those solid green candles at 14.59 to 15.07 were resultants of FII buying. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty has created another bullish trend line above the ascending channel. The level of euphoria is beyond compare & N50 has managed to give stellar returns this calendar year. We just have one more day for the monthly, and quarterly expiry. I am not quite sure by what time I will be able to write the report tomorrow as it is my wife’s birthday. Anyway - I will be hoping for a bullish continuation and a new top for tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
31st Oct ’23 - BankNifty stuck between support & resistanceBankNifty Analysis Further clues for Nifty50’s movement might be hidden in BankNifty’s price action. Unlike Nifty, BankNifty has crowded support & resistance lines nearby that may impact the trend movement. The only way out is to come up with a big RED or GREEN candle break the support/resistance and ensure the momentum picks up. The open (43264) was around the resistance level of 43253. We had a rejection in the opening candle itself. The first pause was at the support level of 43012 which was hit by 09.30. From 09.30 to 11.35, Banknifty was stuck in this zone. At 11.40, I thought the 2nd leg of the down move may be building up - but it was a false flag. BankNifty managed to crawl back to the resistance of 43012 by 13.05. It spent the next 1hr 45mts in this SR zone. Interestingly the price action from 14.50 to 15.00 (3 candles) was very interesting. I still think the clue for the next big move is hidden in this. Why do you think we had that move otherwise? We are exactly at the same level as of 27th October. For the last 3 days, I have maintained the neutral call and somehow the markets are kind of obliging. If 42576 gets broken tomorrow, I will be highly excited to look for shorting opportunities. Since it is the weekly expiry tomorrow, I hope we can get some deep price movements.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
FINNIFTY! - How I made 112% profit 💸Hey Pivster's So, as we know today was expiry for NSE:FINNIFTY1! and market had open with a bullish sentiment at the early hours of the opening bell with good buying force seen in initial minutes of the market as OPEN=LOW too. Buying force was submerged as the first 15min candle closed above the reversal camarilla pivot level H3...after that buyers were not able to push the price the initiative camarilla pivot level H4 and in fact profit booking of BTST players was seeing too. Now, comes the first dip towards Daily H3 pivot level from where the bounce was seen by help of responsive participants, but not strong enough to break the current day high set in the initial candle of market opening and a visible "tweezer top" candlestick pattern was seen formed near day's high (marked inside the red box). Immediately, the next thing we see is a big seller's candle which closed near to day's low thus giving a confirmation of a "double top" formation near day's high and formation of the "M-Pattern" for the day with "neckline" being near the reversal camarilla pivot point. This whole scenario above has triggered the GPZ Setup which the index has been for the day and a clear trend reversal or pause sentiment was known to the market on basis of - * Type of CPR formed * Pivot Analysis * 2D CPR relationship HOW WE WOULD HAVE TRADED THIS SETUP FOR DAY: Now, that we know the GPZ setup has triggered for the day we had to wait for the retest for either PDH OR DH3 for our entry towards the target of DL3 or Pivot point of the day with our SL being current day's high or DH3 whichever was higher. A simple retest towards PDH was triggered with the SL as DH3 which had an additional confluence of neckline from the M-pattern that was formed in the first half of the market. Finally, we received our target of DL3/Pivotpoint by the closing bell of the market and this also marked a close for our - "Trade which made us 112.82% in profits or doubled our capital in under 20mins" P.S. Screenshot of the trade's order book is attached in the chart itself! This was the synopsis for yet another simple analysis for the broader index as a whole thus showing you that trading has to be kept simple and executed with patience and risk defined beforehand. If you liked the content, then share with your friends, family, fellow traders and dear ones :) Regards, Mukkull
NSE:FINNIFTY1!Short
by PivotMinati
7
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 22 JUN 2023Weekly Analysis of BankNifty Banknifty is up 259pts between 15th to 22nd June i.e. current expiry week. Interestingly, BN was looking at steeper cuts on 15th - the price action was pretty negative. Luckily that level is still sacrosanct and has formed an interim support as we had one more retest @ 20th June. Today's Analysis The major anomaly that stands out in today's trade is the inverted V shaped pattern. 8 consecutive green candles to rise 324pts ~ 0.74% and then 5 consecutive red candles to fall 377pts ~ 0.86%. We opened inline and the close was in red, down -0.31%, but this unique rise2fall stands out. Nifty50 also had a similar pattern which we will discuss shortly. Its quite normal to expect some choppiness due to expiry, but the magnitude of 300+ move getting negated immediately - looks like a strong hand at play. Pattern similar to low Mcap pump and dump penny stocks. BN has still not managed to cross the 44068 resistance & poses a big question mark on why its not supporting N50 to take out its ATH. Nifty50 on the other hand came prepared to take out the ATH today, unfortunately NiftyIT was not supporting it. BN gave initial push 18886.6 we are just 1pt short of the last ATH hit on 01 Dec 2022. The Narendra Modi factor would be at play here, his current US visit may bring in more job, investment, partnership opportunities & the quick to gain from all these would be the Nifty50 companies. The fall of 108pts ~ 0.57% between 10.25 to 13.05 and then a fall of 102.1pts ~ 0.54% from 13.45 to 15.15 looked quite serious. The support of 18762.9 was held and we closed just above that. The pump-and-dump like pattern even though visible is not creating anomaly in N50 because today's price action in whole looks like a 2 legged downside fall. 1hr TF for N50 has formed a double top like pattern. Further trades below the support of 18762 will give it downside momentum.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 11 MAY 2023 expiryWeekly Expiry Analysis From the 4th of May till 11th, NSE:BANKNIFTY has fallen 0.3% ~ 131pts. Headline does not really indicate what went behind. We fell 1028pts in 1 single day i.e. 5th and then scaled back 870pts in the remaining 4 days. How can I not credit the bulls? You might be bored with me praising the bulls everytime - sadly that is the reality. The bears are really unable to move the needle, this week I seriously thought we will take out the 42576 session - but that did not happen! --- Today's Analysis Would you believe the gap-up open of 43535 today? We hit the same level as of 04 May on which NSE:BANKNIFTY had made an interim top. Needless to say the 5th May selling on HDFC-HDFCBK news took out some gains, but we have bounced back quite strongly. That gapup stands as an anomaly, otherwise the price action is perfect, showing a higher-high formation. And then we had a flattish session afterwards.  From an expiry standpoint we did not have big movements (unusual), but we had 2 or 3 intense volatility surges even with a flattish movement (again unusual). The IV surge helped the options premium spike 2 or 3 times giving excellent opportunity to traders today. Example 42000 PE which was OTM by 1500pts ~ 3.4% away from strike had 2 swings. 1st one from 09.30 to 10.30 where its premium surged 99% and then 13.10 to 13.48 where it surged 67%. Did the market make any abrupt move during that time - absolutely not.  --- 15mts are still having a minor bullish tone, but it will quickly fade out if new highs are not made. Are the bulls tired after a long run - seems like that. Nearest support is still 43253. --- 1hr is more bullish than 15mts TF thats because the trailing price action shows strong upwards momentum. It also has a vulnerability to form a double top at 43750 levels - but for that we need some bad news. The only bad news we can expect in May is the Karnataka elections results!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 04 May 2023 - expiryWeekly Analysis NSE:BANKNIFTY has gone up by 1.58% ~ 678pts from last Thursday to today. It has taken out 2 crucial resistance points in the process and nearing the ATH now. Really impressive performance - the banks in India are standing out with their outperformance. Global financial institutions are melting down and many US banks are trading less than 50 to 60% below their ATHs --- Today's Analysis Banknifty opened inline today and had a parabolic upside move, something that we usually see during range breakouts. At present banknifty is not in a range, so the price action could even be due to short covering. Of the 0.86% gained today, 0.71% aggressive move came between 14.15 to 15.10 - once the HDFC declared its results. Since today was an expiry day, the last 1 hr move would have shocked many.  43500 CE option chart would have amazed many by a 530% upmove between 14.15 to close. When the VIX is low, volatility is at its lowest point - the option buyer gets a rag-to-riches kind of story like this every week. The same spike was available on 18200 CE Nifty50. I was not really interested in fishing for these opportunities even though the risk:reward looked interesting. Mainly because I prefer to sell the options first rather than buy. --- 15mts TF is showing today's move quite prominently. Once it took out the swing high of 02 May there was no stopping. Most of the option traders would be frustrated as the moves are coming only in the last 1 hr - this would spoil their trading plans. Also during low volatility & low option premium periods - positional trading gives far more returns than intraday. --- 1hr TF shows the new higher-high that got formed. In yesterday's report we discussed the possibility of the same happening. What is more surprising is how it happened today even after FED raised interest rates to 5.25% & SP:SPX tanked 0.7% overnight. --- NSE:NIFTY has also created a higher-high and closed above 17976 conclusively. The next resistance is at 18419
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
NIFTY- Expiry Day Trade- 22-09-2022After the Fed meeting and decision to increase rates, the US markets witnessed volatility. Indian indices opened lower but staged a recovery in the initial 30 minutes. However strong buying support is likely to come in near 17500-17400 zones only and it may be worthwhile to take a short side trade near to 17720-17760 keeping a stop loss of 17830 and looking for targets of 17630/1758017510/17480 Disclaimer: The analysis provided is for educational purpose and the author does not assume any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the analysis. Consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by binuppaul
NIFTY EXPIRY & POSITIONAL JAN 2021Nifty has reversed from its long-term support levels and has been overstretched ever since. Positionally, NIFTY is in a BULLISH pre-budget rally and on its way to retest/break an all-time high again. Since reversal nifty climbed 790 points and went sideways for a few. Since FII is buying in cash another 790 point rally targets 18100 zones which can be a good point for reversal or sideways time correction. Jan 6th expiry may see 18100 levels. In the present scenario, NIFTY can retest its breakout levels in the recent rally and create new highs. NOTE: This is an analysis-based approach positionally and any news-based data is not considered. This is an analysis and not a recommendation for the suggestion.
NSE:NIFTY
by techD_007
Bank Nifty - Thursday 18th Nov'21 - Trend & Levels (Expiry)Bank Nifty Trade Plan for 18th Nov 2021 - Weekly Expiry As I posted in my previous ideas, BN is showing weakness and it has changed its trend from Bullish to Bearish. Expecting market to touch 36000 in the upcoming sessions. For tomorrow the levels you can see in the Chart. If Opens Gap down we can see more selling pressure and more volatile market tomorrow due to Weekly expiry. If Opens Gap up, we can expect sideways/range bound market. I'm expecting tomorrow BN will trade between 37700 - 38300, if 37700 breaks then we will see more fall on the downside. Happy Trading!!! :-) Please do like and support for more Ideas! Comment if you need any specific stock/index analysis..
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by vijiviven
1