Vora Trades: #1 CEAT: Failure TestIt's been a while since I have posted here and it's mostly because I believe 90% of Technical Analysis is questionable and that I have posted enough educational material. I also put a post a while ago saying markets will be in a bad state and I did not want to trade. In order to stay active on this platform and the markets look corrected enough to start trading again, I have decided to journal my trades here. These are not trade recommendations but they are just my trades. Any profit/loss resulting from these trades are solely your responsibility and I should not be held accountable.
I like to trade both reversal and continuation but because markets seem uncertain due to the war in Ukraine, I have adjusted accordingly and moved on to the weekly time frame to reduce noise, have a deeper SL and more "relevant" support levels.
Failuretest
Trading setup for beginnersOne thing that is a problem for novice traders is the lack of repeatable trading setups. Manually scanning through charts every day is counterproductive. One might take a trade just for the sake of it if they do not find anything worth trading.
This pattern can be scanned very easily on charting platforms. Lack of patience is very real during early days as a trader. Having a fixed systematic pattern like this is an antidote to lack of patience and bad trades.
Whenever the market penetrates the mentioned low and doesn't follow through, one can expect a short time spike in prices that can be capitalized. These patterns tend to resolve themselves within 3-5 days and occasionally make take some time. This pattern is called Turtle Soup/Turtle Soup Plus One. If the market closes above the mentioned low on the same day, it is called turtle soup and if it closes higher the next day, it is called turtle soup plus one. I learned this strategy from a legendary veteran trader, Linda Bradford Raschke, in her book Street Smarts. The trading pattern is explained thoroughly on the chart but if you have any questions, you can drop them in the comment section.
P.S. I highlighted the most recent trade because that was the one that I took and the previous examples on the chart may look like a benefit of hindsight, but that is simply to see how the markets reacted and whether this trade would have worked out or not. Past market behavior is very important.
*Welcome corrections on the chart if any*
HINDCOPPER - FAILURE TEST?I don't really believe in support and resistance. Quite often you'll hear people say I should have held on to my winner or something like that. This is anecdotal evidence of the unreliability of support and resistance. Human beings are wired to see patterns on charts even when they don't exist. I would add evidence about how support and resistance are mere lines on the chart majority of the time but citing sources risks me getting banned.
One might ask why am I trading more than one pattern and why this pattern. The reasons are fairly straightforward-
1. Bull momentum seems to be fading and in a non-trending market, breakouts have a higher failure rate.
2. Buy low, sell high prevails in a non-trending market, which is more often than not, the state of the market.
Another bit of information is that we've heard not to trade against the trend. But a failure test is a very good reason to take a counter-trend trade as you might just catch the beginning of a move.
Disclaimer: Do not take positions with me without your due diligence. Investments are subject to market risk and I should not be held responsible for the losses incurred. This is meant to be a real-time trading tutorial and not investment advice.