Falling Wedge
Falling Wedge BREAKOUT & RETEST - TATA MOTORSRising Wedge & Falling Wedge are very popular Reversal Patterns
Falling Wedge or Descending Wedge Pattern seen in TATA MOTORS with retest, which indicate bullish trend further with Targets of 360-380-450
Note: This analysis is only for educational purpose.
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Take trade as per the values given in Fibonacci. always trail the stop loss. do your own analysis before taking trade
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NBCC FALLING-WEDGE-BREAKOUT PRICE ACTION VOLUME PROFILEDisclaimer-:
1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED.
2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any.
Volume Profile-:
Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price.
2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes
3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case
POC-: The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place.
VALUE REGION-:
The violet region highlighted in volume profile is called value region. This is where 70% of total volume of the volume profile lies.
It means this region has value so, many transactions took place.
Firstly-:
NBCC fell steadily and nicely for a prolonged time in a wedge like formation (triangular). Recently Falling Wedge Breakout has happened. Moreover price has been rising in a small up-sloping channel making higher highs and higher lows.
In wedge pattern the trend lines have been tested at least 3 times. So the breakout is strong
IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-:
1. Recent Volume is extremely high as compared to volume when stock fell and since the price is rising making higher lows so definitely its an accumulation and soon there will be breakout and uptrend.
2. The upcoming region 50-70 has relatively high volume. This means the stock may stay there for a while or within that level it might face multiple resistances. Moreover 50-70 was previously an accumulation region.
3. But above 70 level volume of stock falling is very very low which means there is weak resistance. So once the stock breaks out of 70 level it might smoothly move upwards.
TARGET WITH LOGIC
1. Since the all the time high level, 146 NSE:NBCC stock has been falling with very low volume . While now the volume of accumulation is too high, so there is a high chance it can easily reach the all-time high. Moreover it might even go more than that, but it depends what happens after the breakout.
ENTRY-:
1. A risky entry would be above 50 level since 50-70 is in value region, so stock might face multiple resistance , or it might stay there in sideways and you want have capital appreciation
2. A better entry would be confirmatory breakout above 70 level since its a very strong resistance level and its less risky.
I will update here when breakout happens
STOP-LOSS
If your entry is above 50, 25-30 is a good stop-loss region. If it is above 70, 50 would be conservative stop-loss.
Stop-loss is deep but if your expected return or target is high, you have to put conservative stop-loss to avoid being stopped out unnecessarily. Since its a intermediate-term swing trade, a conservative stop-loss makes sense.
**STOP-LOSS should be trailed as per your strategy. One of the best is to trail with Moving Average in 1D timeframe with ATR( Average True Range ) as a buffer.
EXIT
Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-:
1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low)
2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal.
3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit
4. If you want , you can keep a target level lower than the all time high and exit at Target. Possible levels are 100 and 120.
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**I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC.
TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT.
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SAIL IS GOING TO BE A RAIL AGAINSAIL is creating a base again to be a bulllish RAIL ---------------------------------------->
As you can see , it has already broken its falling wedge few times(unlike JSW and TATA Steel as they are strictly following the falling wedge), also the momentum increased creating a bullish divergence. So we can expect a good spike in upcoming days.(Can be a swing/positional trade after few days)
FOR INTRADAY TRADERS( only for 31-05-2021)
1- It was totally bearish last day and CREATED A DOJI(could be a sign of reversal) as last candle (on hourly frame).
2- Also , since it came again to support, so it can jump again as momentum is increasing.
LASTLY ITS UP TO YOU WHETHER TO TAKE A TRADE OR NOT, BUT FOR A SAFER SIDE, CAN EXPECT A PROFIT OF 4-4.5 Rs per share.......
Happy Trading ..... :)
HDFC, Swing/PositionalHDFC has given a breakout from falling wedge and has been taking support from 50 EMA . Even after the falling wedge breakout, 2605 seems to be a rejection region where one or two gap up openings could not sustain. A closing above 2605 with good volume can be traded for a swing or positional trade for first target of 2768 and second target of 2888. Some good indicators of HDFC possibly achieving target is support of 50 EMA , RSI above 50 suggesting a buy signal and if you look closely you can see a rounding bottom pattern forming which i haven't highlighted in my idea, but it can be seen.
If you enter after a breakout from the 2605 region. Stop loss can be set just below 50 EMA for swing.
Make sure to trade what happens and not what you expect :)
Note: Please do not follow my idea blindly, please analyze yourself as well. I just share my idea so that people can build upon the same. The idea I share is open to healthy criticism and feedback :)
Paushak Ltd. Positional/Long TermPaushak Ltd. is one of the India's largest phosgene based products manufacturer. Currently it is forming a falling wedge. A break above the wedge can be traded for a target of range 7330 to 7550.
Equitybulls.com states, "Paushak Limited has received approval to its application for amendment in Industrial License from the Department for Promotion of Industrial & Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce & Industry vide its communication dated 3rd August, 2020 for expansion of licensed manufacturing capacity at its existing manufacturing facilities located at Panelav, Gujarat.
With this approval, the company has announced expansion of licensed manufacturing capacity for the product Phosgene from 4,800 MT per annum to 14,400 MT per annum and graded capacity for its other phosgene based derivatives."
I personally hold Paushak ltd.
Make sure to trade what happens and not what you expect :)
Note: Please do not follow my idea blindly, please analyze yourself as well. I just share my idea so that people can build upon the same. The idea I share is open to healthy criticism and feedback :)
Maruti Suzuki looking good on charts Maruti looking good on charts breaked out of falling wedge by making a good price action currently in a range
Breaking & sustaining above this range , Could take stock further upside
Keep an eye on it
DISCLAIMER
( Educational Purpose )
All investments involve risk.
Please Do your analysis before initiating Any trade
Good luck !
Possible Breakout And Rally Ahead !Traders CROMPTON is forming falling or descending channel pattern and the stock has failed to touch the support line of the channel. This is good sign of upward breakout. Enter only if breakout takes place with good volumes.
This is my personal analysis and its just for educational purpose , feel free to share your feedback/views.