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USDCAD appears well-set for further downside towards 1.3500USDCAD justifies a downside break of a five-week-old ascending trend channel, as well as downbeat RSI and MACD signals, despite marching towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October-November 2022 downside, near 1.3690 ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February. Should the inflation gauge suggests further rate hikes from the BoC, as it reiterated the readiness to resume the rate hike trajectory if needed, the Loonie pair will have a further downside to trace. In that case, a convergence of the 100-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, close to 1.3500, will be a tough nut to crack for the sellers. Following that, the previous resistance line from October 2022 and the 200-DMA, respectively around 1.3430 and 1.3340, may lure the bears. Alternatively, softer inflation data may trigger the USDCAD pair’s corrective bounce. However, the aforementioned channel’s lower line, close to 1.3800 at the latest, holds the key to the buyer’s entry. Should the quote rises past 1.3800, the monthly peak surrounding 1.3865 and the 2022 peak of 1.3977 may test the bulls ahead of directing them to the stated channel’s top line, near the 1.4000 round figure. To sum up, USDCAD is likely to decline further as the key Canadian inflation data looms. Even if the statistics disappoint the Loonie pair bears, the life of a corrective bounce appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
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USDJPY bears appear tiring as the Fed week beginsUSDJPY marked the biggest weekly loss since early January despite trading within a one-week-long descending triangle. Apart from the bullish chart formation, sluggish MACD and nearly oversold RSI (14) also challenge the Yen pair sellers. That said, the stated triangle’s bottom line, around 131.40, acts as immediate support for the bears to watch before targeting the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March upside, near 130.15. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 130.15, and also breaks the 130.00 round figure, the odds of witnessing a slump towards the lows marked in February and January, respectively near 128.00 and 127.20, can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a sustained break of 132.60 offers a bullish chart confirmation, which in turn suggests a theoretical target of 136.50. However, the 200 and 100 SMAs, respectively around 133.80 and 135.30, could test the USDJPY buyers. Following that, the theoretical target of 136.50 and a previous support line from early February, near 137.70, could lure the pair buyers. Overall, USDJPY is likely bracing for recovery but the stated triangle’s resistance line, as well as the key SMAs could challenge the run-up.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers brace for fresh 2023 highHaving successfully bounced off the 200-day EMA, the Gold buyers poke a four-month-old support-turned-resistance line as bulls await final clues for the next week’s Fed meeting. Given the overbought RSI conditions, the metal buyers appear to run out of steam and can keep struggling with the immediate hurdle surrounding $1,930. Even if the quote crosses that previous support line, the year-to-date (YTD) high of near $1,960 can act as an extra filter toward the north. It should be noted, however, that a clear run-up beyond $1,960 enables the bullion buyers to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion of late September 2022 to February 2023 moves, near $2018. On the flip side, pullback moves could aim for the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near $1,877. Any further downside, though, will need validation from the early March swing high near $1,858, a break which makes the Gold price vulnerable to retesting the 200-EMA support, around $1,810 at the latest. It’s worth noting that a clear break of $1,810 will need validation from November 2022 peak surrounding $1,786 to convince XAUUSD bears. Overall, the Gold price remains firmer but the bulls need a breathing gap before leaping toward the fresh YTD high.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears take a break ahead of ECBEURUSD posted the biggest daily slump in six months as Credit Suisse headlines fanned risk aversion on Wednesday. The fall, however, needs validation from the 1.0555-50 support confluence, comprising the 100-DMA and 14-week-old ascending support line, as well as the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting. That said, a clear break of 1.0550, accompanied by a disappointment from the ECB could quickly drag the major currency pair towards the 200-DMA support of 1.0320. However, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s September 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 1.0460, could act as an intermediate halt during the anticipated slump. On the contrary, recovery moves require hawkish commentary, as well as a rate hike decision, from the ECB to aim for the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.0725. Following that, the mid-February swing high of around 1.0810 could test the EURUSD bulls ahead of directing the run-up towards the previous monthly high, as well as the 2023 peak, of near 1.1035. Overall, EURUSD is on the bear’s radar but the quote’s further downside hinges on the key fundamental events and important support zone break.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls need validation from 0.6770AUDUSD confirmed a falling wedge bullish chart pattern during the early days and is keeping the breakout so far during Wednesday. The RSI (14) line’s gradual rebound from the oversold territory adds strength to the upside bias. However, a convergence of the 100 and 200 DMAs, around 0.6770 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the Aussie buyers to keep the reins. Following that, tops marked during December 2022 and mid-February 2023, respectively around 0.6895 and 0.7030, could act as intermediate halts during the theoretical target of 0.7240. On the contrary, a downside break of the 0.6640 level, comprising the stated wedge’s top line, could negate the bullish bias. Even so, the latest swing low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to March 2023 upside, close to 0.6560 and 0.6545 in that order, could test the AUDUSD sellers before giving them control. Also acting as a downside filter is the lower line of the aforementioned bullish chart formation, near 0.6515 as we write. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to rise further toward the previous monthly peak. However, the key DMA convergence challenges the buyers as top-tier Aussie data looms, up for publishing on Thursday.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD buyers struggle on UK employment, US inflation dayDespite rising in the last four consecutive days, the GBPUSD bulls take a breather ahead of the key UK jobs report and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. That said, the three-week-old descending resistance-turned-support-line, around 1.2140 at the latest, restricts the immediate downside of the Cable pair. Following that, the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2100 precedes the one-week-old ascending trend line and the 100-SMA, respectively near 1.2040 and 1.2000, to challenge probe the Cable pair sellers. Should the quote remains bearish past 1.2000, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since February 17, between 1.1915 and 1.1925, could try to prod the Cable bears. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the GBPUSD pair’s January-March fall, around 1.2200, caps the immediate upside around 1.2100. Following that, a run-up towards the mid-February swing high of around 1.2270 appears safe to expect. It should be noted that the quote’s run-up beyond 1.2270 will be crucial to watch as it holds the key to the pair’s run-up toward the previous monthly peak of 1.2400. Overall, the pre-data anxiety joins nearly overbought RSI conditions to probe GBPUSD buyers. However, the bullish MACD signals and hopes for further US Dollar weakness keep the bulls hopeful.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY attracts bears but 200-SMA is the key supportUSDJPY marked a second consecutive weekly loss, as well as broke an ascending trend channel, as BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda departs after the decade-long workmanship. The bearish break also gains attention as the quote slips beneath the 100-SMA for the first time in more than a month. However, the nearly oversold RSI and 200-SMA, around 133.30 at the latest, challenge the Yen pair’s further downside. Following that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of February-March advances, near 132.90, acts as the last defense of the buyers before directing sellers towards the 130.00 round figure, as well as the February 10 swing low surrounding 129.80. Meanwhile, USDJPY recovery remains elusive unless the quote remains below the 135.65-70 resistance confluence, including the 100-SMA and the aforementioned channel’s lower line. Should the Yen pair manage to remain firmer past 135.70, the 137.00 could test the bulls before highlighting the monthly high of 137.90, the stated channel’s top line, near 139.10, and the 140.00 psychological magnet. Overall, USDJPY is on the bear’s radar and is likely to decline further but the 200-SMA may test the further downside momentum.
by MTradingGlobal
200-EMA defends Gold buyers on US NFP dayGold stays on the bear’s radar as it reverses the previous weekly gains, the first in five, ahead of the all-important US employment report for February. It’s worth noting, however, that the 200-EMA level surrounding $1,805 puts a floor under the metal price, a break of which could set the ball rolling towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement of November 2022 to February 2023 upside, also comprising the mid-November peak surrounding $1,787. In a case where the quote remains weak past $1,787, late November’s bottom near $1,731 appears the last defense for the bulls. On the flip side, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level close to $1,830 holds the key to Gold’s buyer’s entry. However, a broad nine-week-old horizontal area between $1,857 and $1,865 seems a tough nut to crack for the metal bulls. Should the bullion manages to remain firmer past $1,865, a run-up toward the $1,900 threshold becomes smooth. Following that, the multi-month high marked in February at around $1,960 could gain the buyer's attention. Overall, the Gold price is likely to remain weak amid hawkish Fed expectations and downbeat MACD signals. However, the RSI line teases with the oversold territory and hence the quote’s further downside is likely having a little room towards the south.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays bullish unless breaking 1.0540 support confluenceAfter stalling a four-month winning streak in February, EURUSD prints mild gains so far in March. That said, the major currency pair’s latest recovery takes place from the 1.0540 support confluence comprising the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a three-month-old ascending support line. The upside momentum also takes clues from the upward-sloping RSI (14) line and upbeat MACD signals. As a result, the quote is well-set to challenge the last December’s peak surrounding 1.0740. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 1.0740, which is more likely, the prices could aim for the mid-February top of around 1.0800. However, multiple hurdles could challenge the Euro bulls afterward, if not then the pair’s north-run toward the previous monthly high of near 1.1035 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a daily closing below the 1.0540 support confluence could quickly fetch the EURUSD price to January’s bottom of 1.0481 before highlighting the December 07 low near 1.0445. In a case where the pair sellers keep the reins past 1.0445, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of its run-up from November 2022 to February 2023, respectively near 1.0380 and 1.0230, could flash on their radar. It’s worth observing that the late October 2022 high near 1.0095 and the 1.000 level are crucial for the Euro bears to watch past 1.0230. Overall, EURUSD remains on the bull’s radar as it stays firmer beyond the key support ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual Testimony.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY eases from key hurdle to the north ahead of BoJ, NFPUSDJPY marked the first weekly loss in three as the key Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy Meeting and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) looms. The Yen pair’s latest retreat could be cited as a failure to cross the 200 and 100-DMA. Adding strength to the pullback move could be the overbought RSI (14). However, the bullish MACD signals and a three-day-old ascending support line, around 134.15 by the press time, challenge the quote’s immediate downside. Following that, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May-October 2022 run-up, near 131.75, could lure the bears before directing them to the 130.00 psychological magnet and the last January’s low, close to 127.20. Meanwhile, the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA guard the USDJPY pair’s immediate recovery moves near 136.80 and 137.30 respectively. It’s worth noting that the risk-barometer pair’s successful run-up beyond 137.30 isn’t an open invitation to the bulls as the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels could challenge the further advances around 139.15 and 142.20 in that order. Overall, USDJPY bulls are running out of steam ahead of BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s last monetary policy show, as well as the key US jobs report for February.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold grinds between 50-EMA and 200-EMA ahead of crucial weekGold braces for the first weekly gain in five but stays within the key moving average envelope as traders eye Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and the US NFP data, up for release in the next week. It’s worth noting, however, that the bears appear to run out of steam, per the RSI and MACD conditions. As a result, a clear upside break of the 50-Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around $1,845 by the press time, could convince the buyers to retake control. Though, multiple hurdles around $1,865 and $1,890 might challenge the XAUUSD run-up before the metal can regain $1,900. Meanwhile, a surprise downturn remains unimpressive beyond the 200-EMA level surrounding $1,803. Also acting as an extra filter to the south is the $1,800 threshold. In a case where the Gold price remains bearish past $1,800, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the quote’s run-up from last November to February 2023, around $1,747, will gain the market’s attention. It should be noted that the late November low of $1,727 may act as the last resort for the buyers before totally giving up control during the metal’s weakness past $1,747. Overall, the Gold price remains sidelined but the downside momentum gains less acceptance ahead of an important week.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays on the bear’s radar despite recent reboundEURUSD began the month of March on a positive note by crossing a one-month-old descending trend line, as well as poking the 1.0690 resistance confluence including the 200-EMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January-February upside. The recovery also justified bullish MACD signals. However, the RSI (14) retreated from the overbought territory and triggered the quote’s pullback from the key upside hurdle. Even if the pair crosses the 1.0690 immediate resistance, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since January-end, around 1.0788-805, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. It’s worth noting that the quote’s successful run-up beyond 1.0805 won’t hesitate to challenge January’s high of near 1.0930. Meanwhile, pullback moves could aim for the previous resistance line from early February, close to 1.0585. Following that, lows marked during the previous month and January, near 1.0530 and 1.0480 in that order, could lure the EURUSD bears. Should the pair remains bearish past 1.0480, bottoms marked in late November around 1.0290 and 1.0220 may act as the last stops for the sellers before highlighting the parity level of 1.0000. Overall, EURUSD is likely to grind higher for the short term but the medium-term bearish trend remains intact.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD braces for a bull run, falling wedge in focusGBPUSD holds onto the Brexit deal-inspired gains inside a one-month-old bullish chart formation called a falling wedge, following a sustained rebound from a fortnight-old descending trend line. Adding strength to the upside bias are the bullish MACD signals. However, nearly overbought RSI challenges the theoretical north-run targeting 1.2600. That said, the mid-February high and the previous monthly top, respectively around 1. 2270 and 1.2450, could test the buyers. It should be noted that the 100-SMA and aforementioned wedge’s confirmation points, respectively near 1.2060 and 1.12110, could challenge the immediate upside of the quote. On the flip side, the 100-SMA and previous resistance line from February 14, close to 1.2060 and 1.2020 in that order, precede the 1.2000 psychological magnet to challenge the short-term pullback of the GBPUSD pair. It’s worth noting that the road past 1.2000 appears bumpy with multiple stops near 1.1940 and 1.1900. Also acting downside filters are the lows marked in January and during mid-November 2022, near 1.1840 and 1.1760 respectively. Overall, GBPUSD is back on the bull’s radar as traders await UK PMI and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD bulls need to cross 1.3700 for confirmationUSDCAD bulls struggle to defend the two-week-old winning streak ahead of the Canadian GDP data. However, the Loonie pair stays beyond the fortnight-long support line, as well as the key moving averages, to keep buyers hopeful. That said, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early October 2022, around 1.3700 appears the key upside hurdle for the pair. Following that, a run-up towards the 1.3830 and the 1.3900 threshold could be quick. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3900, the previous yearly top surrounding 1.3975 and the 1.4000 psychological magnet could challenge the upside momentum. It should be noted that the RSI appears overbought but the MACD remains bullish, which in turn highlights the incoming data. Meanwhile, pullback moves may initially poke the immediate support line near 1.3580 before approaching the 100-DMA support of around 1.3500. In a case where the USDCAD remains weak past 1.3500, a gradual downturn toward the 200-DMA close to 1.3260 can’t be ruled out. However, the Loonie bears need a clear downside break of the stated key DMA support to retake control. Overall, USDCAD remains on the bull’s but a pullback can’t be ruled out unless the price remains below 1.3700. That said, strong prints of Canadian GDP could trigger the much-needed retreat of the Loonie pair.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD turns bearish but road to the south is long and bumpyEven if sustained trading below the 100-DMA and a three-month-old ascending trend line become necessary for the AUD/USD bears, a daily closing below the 200-DMA and an upward-sloping previous support line from October 2022 signals the pair’s further decline. Further, the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI adds strength to the downside bias. Hence, the sellers should wait for a clear downside move below 0.6720 to aim for the lows marked in late December and November of 2022, respectively around 0.6630 and 0.6585. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Aussie pair’s October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6550, appears the last defense of the buyers. On the contrary, AUDUSD recovery remains elusive unless the quote stays below a convergence of the 200-DMA and four-month-old previous support, close to 0.6800. Adding to the upside filters is the December 2022 high near 0.6895 and the mid-month peak of 0.7030. In a case where the Aussie buyers keep the reins, the monthly high surrounding 0.7160 could lure the bulls. Overall, AUDUSD is ready to witness further downside but the downturn is less likely to be smooth.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD bears struggle with 200-DMA on RBNZ dayNZDUSD dribbles around a seven-week low as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced a 0.50% rate hike on Wednesday. In doing so, the Kiwi pair fades the previous week’s bounce off 200-DMA amid a nearly oversold RSI (14). That said, bearish MACD signals and an early February reversal from a six-month-old ascending resistance line keep the sellers hopeful of breaking the 0.6185 DMA support. Following that, the September 2022 high of near 0.6160 acts as an extra filter towards the south, a break of which could quickly drag the quote to the last July’s bottom of 0.6060. It’s worth observing that the pair’s weakness past 0.6060 won’t hesitate to break the 0.6000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, recovery moves need a daily closing beyond the three-week-old resistance line, close to 0.6275 by the press time, to convince NZDUSD bulls. In a case where the Kiwi pair manages to cross the 0.6275 hurdle, the previous weekly top surrounding 0.6390 and the 0.6400 round figure could challenge the upside momentum. During the quote’s sustained run-up beyond 0.6400, the previously mentioned ascending resistance line near 0.6545 precedes the double tops marked during late 2022, around 0.6570-75, which will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls before retaking control. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to remain on the bear’s radar and hints at more downside on the RBNZ day.
by MTradingGlobal
Ascending triangle teases GBPUSD bears ahead of UK PMIGBPUSD stays defensive inside a three-month-old ascending triangle, following the previous week’s rebound from the 200-DMA. Even so, downbeat oscillators join lower high formations to keep the sellers hopeful ahead of monthly PMI data from Britain. That said, the stated triangle’s lower line precedes the key moving average to challenge the Cable pair bears around 1.1990 and 1.1935 in that order. Following that, lows marked during January and mid-November 2022, close to 1.1840 and 1.1760 respectively, may challenge the bears. Also acting as short-term key support is last September’s peak surrounding 1.1735, a break of which could give a free hand to the pair sellers. Alternatively, recovery moves could aim for the three-week-old descending resistance line, near 1.2220, followed by the previous weekly high near 1.2270. In a case where GBPUSD buyers manage to cross the 1.2270 hurdle the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the multiple resistance area around 1.2450 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting that a successful break of the 1.2450 resistance could propel the Cable pair’s advances to May 2022 high near 1.2665. Overall, GBPUSD remains on the bear’s radar ahead of the key UK data.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD stays bearish unless crossing 0.6950AUDUSD braces for the first monthly loss in four despite Friday’s rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its December 2022 to early February highs. A clear downside break of the two-month-old ascending trend line joins a two-week-old descending trend line to favor sellers. Adding strength to the bearish bias are the downbeat oscillators. The corrective bounce, however, could become important if it manages to cross the convergence of the previous support line and an immediate downward-sloping resistance line, close to 0.6950. Following that, the 100-SMA surrounding 0.6985 and the 0.7000 psychological magnet could act as the final defense of the Aussie bears before giving control to the bulls. Alternatively, the aforementioned 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.6830, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, puts a floor under the short-term AUDUSD downside. Following that, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio near 0.6750 may act as an extra filter towards the south. In a case where the Aussie pair remains bearish past 0.6750, the December 2022 low near 0.6630 could lure the sellers. Overall, AUDUSD’s corrective bounce, if any, remains elusive unless crossing the 0.6950 hurdle.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold pokes key support surrounding $1,820Gold extends the early February fall towards two-month-old horizontal support near $1,825-23, despite posting the indecisive closing in the last week. The bearish bias also gains strength from the clear downside break of an ascending trend line from early November and the 50-DMA, as well as the bearish MACD signals. However, the nearly oversold RSI (14) hints at the grinding of the metal prices near the stated crucial support. Should the quote drops below $1,820, early December peak near $1,810 and the $1,800 round figure may probe the gold sellers before directing them to the 200-DMA support level of around $1,775. It’s worth noting that the November 2022 high of $1,786 acts as an extra filter toward the south. Meanwhile, the 50-DMA and the previous support line from the last November, respectively around $1,860 and $1,883, could challenge the Gold price recovery. Following that, the $1,900 round figure will be important to the metal buyers. In a case where the bullion remains firmer past $1,900, the monthly high of $1,960 and the late March 2022 top near $1,966 should challenge the run-up targeting the $2,000 psychological magnet. Overall, Gold is likely to decline further only if it manages to break the $1,820 level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD sellers need 200-DMA breakdown to keep controlAUDUSD bounces off 50-DMA, following a retreat from the 3.5-month-old previous support line. The recovery moves fail to justify the downbeat oscillators and Aussie data, which in turn keep sellers hopeful. That said, a daily closing below the stated short-term moving average, around 0.6880 by the press time, could convince the Aussie bears. However, the 200-DMA surrounding the 0.6800 threshold becomes crucial support as it lured buyers earlier in January. Should the quote manages to break the 200-DMA, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the previous monthly low near 0.6685 and then towards the late 2022 swing lows around 0.6630 and 0.6580 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD rebound needs to run a successful show beyond the support-turned-resistance line from November, close to the 0.7000 psychological magnet. Following that, the Aussie buyers may aim for the 0.7050 level before challenging the all-important 0.7135-55 resistance area comprising multiple tops marked since August 2022. It’s worth observing that the pair’s sustained break of 0.7155 won’t hesitate to cross the mid-2022 top surrounding 0.7285 and brace for the previous yearly high near 0.7660. Overall, AUDUSD is all set to reverse the late 2022 run-up but a clear downside break of 200-DMA becomes necessary.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD recovery remains unconvincing ahead of UK inflationGBPUSD holds onto the recovery from an early February rebound from a three-month-old ascending support line, staying beyond the 100-day EMA to lure more bids. Adding strength to the upside bias is the upward-sloping RSI (14) line and the recently upbeat MACD signals. However, the previous support from early November, near 1.2265, acts as an immediate hurdle to challenge the bulls. Following that, a horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since December, near 1.2450, appears crucial for the Cable buyers to tighten the holds, a break of which could propel prices towards May 2022 peak surrounding 1.2665. On the flip side, the 100-day EMA level surrounding 1.2040 and the 1.2000 psychological magnet challenge short-term pullbacks of the GBPUSD. That said, a clear downside break of the 1.2000 mark needs validation from the aforementioned support line from November 17, close to 1.1965 at the latest, to convince bears. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.1965, the odds of witnessing a slump towards January’s low near 1.1840 and the mid-November 2022 bottom surrounding 1.1760 can’t be ruled out. Overall, GBPUSD remains on the bear’s radar despite the latest run-up, which in turn highlights today’s UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for clear directions.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebound appears shallow ahead of important EU, US dataBe it sustained trading below the 3.5-month-old ascending trend line or the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, the EURUSD pair has it all to lure bears as first readings of Eurozone Q4 GDP and US CPI for January loom. Even so, the pair’s latest run-up beyond the 50-DMA hurdle seems to challenge the bears. That said, the quote’s fresh selling should wait for a clear downside break of the 50-DMA support of 1.0700 to aim for the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 1.0530. However, the previous monthly low near 1.0400 and the 100-DMA level surrounding 1.0370 could act as the last defense of the bears afterward. Alternatively, the late 2022 peak around 1.0740 and the support-turned-resistance line from November, close to 1.0950, could probe the EURUSD buyers in case the data favors Euro buyers and the US Dollar sellers. It’s worth observing that the 1.1000 round figure and the current monthly high of 1.1033 are likely to act as additional upside filters during the pair’s run-up beyond 1.0950. Overall, EURUSD is on the bear’s radar as traders await important catalysts. It should be observed, however, that the volatility around the scheduled events is likely to be high and hence traders should wait for markets to stabilize after the data before taking any major positions.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY lures buyers ahead of Japan GDP, US inflationUSDJPY snapped a three-week uptrend as traders await Japan's Q4 GDP and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) with mild losses by the end of Friday. While a U-turn from the 50-DMA played a major role in calling bears, the bulls aren’t off the table as the pair remains beyond the previous resistance line from late November, around 129.00. Even if the pair breaks the resistance-turned-support line, January’s bottom around 127.20 and May 2022 low near 126.35 will be crucial for the pair sellers to conquer before taking control. It’s worth noting that the RSI appears mostly steady and favors the trend line break out. Alternatively, the 50-DMA surrounding 132.30 appears immediate hurdle to restrict the immediate USDJPY upside. Following that, January’s peak near 134.80 and the 200-DMA near 136.80 could act as additional challenges for the bulls to cross before approaching the driver’s seat. It should be observed that the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May-October 2022 upside, around 139.10, precedes the 140.00 round figure to act as the last defense of the pair bears. Overall, USDJPY bears are less convinced ahead of the key data/events.
by MTradingGlobal