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200-DMA holds the gate for USDJPY bearsUSDJPY fades bounce off the 200-DMA as it failed to cross the previous support line from late May. However, nearly oversold RSI challenges the sellers and hence a short-term consolidation between the 200-DMA and the support-turned-resistance line, respectively around 135.00 and 138.00, can’t be ruled out. Even if the quote rises past the 138.00 round figure, the 21-DMA could challenge the buyers at around 138.50. It’s worth noting that a seven-week-old descending trend line joins the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-October upside, near 139.15-20, to act as the last defense of sellers. In a case where the yen pair remains firmer past 139.20, a quick run-up toward the late November high around 142.25 appears imminent. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 200-DMA support of 135.00 won’t hesitate to refresh the monthly low, currently around 133.60. Following that, the August month low near 130.40 and the 130.00 round figure can be witnessed. Should the quote remains bearish past 130.00, May’s bottom of 126.35 will lure the USDJPY bears. Overall, USDJPY is heading lower as the key week begins. However, it all depends upon the US inflation and Fed meeting.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD grinds higher inside three-week-old bullish channelEURUSD is likely to end the two-week-old winning streak as traders brace for key consumer-centric data from the US. However, an ascending trend channel from November 15 portrays the short-term bullish bias of traders. That said, the monthly high surrounding 1.0600 and the stated channel’s top near 1.0620 limits the quote’s immediate advances. In a case where the pair defies the bullish chart pattern by crossing the 1.0620 hurdle, the upward trajectory could aim for May’s high near 1.0785. On the downside, the 100-SMA level of 1.0400 restricts the nearby downside of the major currency pair, a break of which will highlight the channel’s support line surrounding 1.0380. Should the EURUSD bears manage to conquer the 1.0380 support, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the 200-SMA level near 1.0200 can’t be ruled out. However, tops marked during late October and early November close to 1.0100-0090 offer a strong support zone to the sellers. Overall, EURUSD remains firmer inside the bullish chart formation but the upside room appears to be limited.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY has more room towards the south as it breaks 200-DMAUSDJPY is under immense pressure as it breaks the 200-DMA support, as well as marks the 3.5-month low. Even though the oversold RSI suggests a mild corrective bounce, the trend appears bearish after it broke an upward-sloping support line from late May. That said, the bears currently aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May-October upside, around 132.00. If the quote fails to rebound from the key Fibonacci retracement level, the August month’s low near 130.40 and the 130.00 round figure may act as the last defense of the buyers. Alternatively, recovery moves need to provide a daily closing beyond the 200-DMA level of 134.60 to tease intraday buyers. Even so, a corrective bounce needs to cross the 137.40 resistance confluence comprising the previous support line from May and a monthly descending trend line. Should the quote rises past 137.40, another trend line from October 21, close to 140.25, will be crucial before giving control to buyers. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness further downside towards 132.00 but further downside appears bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold seesaws near key hurdles to the northGold prices brace for the biggest weekly jump in three as it stays around the highest levels since mid-August. However, the metal still has some strong resistance ahead before offering a free ride to the bulls. Among them, a 5.5-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $1,805 gain major attention as RSI (14) approaches the overbought territory. Should the bullion prices remain firmer past $1,805, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of June-September downside near $1,821 can act as a validation point for the rally targeting the mid-June swing high near $1,859 and then to the June’s peak of $1,879. Meanwhile, pullback moves remain invalid unless the gold price remains beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding $1,778. Following that, Monday’s high near $1,763 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,747 may test the bears ahead of highlighting the 15-week-old horizontal support zone near $1,728. It’s worth noting that the quote’s daily closing below $1,728 could invalidate the recovery hopes and recall the sellers targeting $1,700, as well as July’s trough near $1,680. Overall, gold is likely to witness further upside as it crossed November’s peak but further upside has limited room.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls run out of steam as 2022 is near to endGBPUSD posted the biggest monthly gains since mid-2020 in November. However, the latest bullish trajectory appears doubtful as the pair stays beneath a one-month-old previous support line. That said, the 50-SMA restricts the pair’s immediate downside near 1.1985. Following that, the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.1860 could act as the last defense of the pair buyers before directing bears towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of November 04-24 upside, near 1.1650. Meanwhile, the upside break of the stated support-turned-resistance line, around 1.2190. Although the RSI conditions may turn overbought and challenge further advances near 1.2190, a successful run-up won’t hesitate to aim for the August month’s high near 1.2295. It should be noted that the GBPUSD pair’s sustained trading beyond the 1.2300 round figure should give a free hand to bulls targeting the mid-2020 peak surrounding 1.2665, with 1.2405 likely acting as a buffer.
by MTradingGlobal
Bearish RSI divergence teases EURUSD sellers on a crucial dayAlthough the EURUSD pair is all set to register the biggest monthly gain since September 2010, a bearish RSI divergence on the Daily chart challenges the quote’s further upside as traders await Eurozone inflation and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The price-negative signal could be known when the quote makes higher highs but the oscillator, RSI (14) in this case, prints lower tops. Also raising doubts about the pair’s further upside is its repeated failures to stay successfully beyond the 200-DMA, currently around 1.0380. It’s worth noting, however, that a fresh high of the monthly, close to 1.0500 at the latest, could reject the bearish divergence in case the RSI ticks up beyond the latest peak surrounding 60.40. Even so, the highs marked during late June near 1.0615 will precede the June month’s top of 1.0773 to test the bulls before allowing them to challenge May’s peak of 1.0786. Meanwhile, the previous weekly low close to 1.0220 seems to lure the short-term sellers of the EURUSD pair. Following that, September’s high near 1.0195 could act as the last defense of the buyers before directing the prices towards October’s top of 1.0088. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0088, the parity level will precede the early September swing low around 0.9865 to please the bears. Overall, EURUSD bulls are running out of steam as they brace for the key data/events.
by MTradingGlobal
Bull flag keeps USDCAD buyers hopefulUSDCAD grinds lower inside a bullish chart pattern. That said, the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.3570 guards the Loonie pair’s immediate upside before highlighting the flag’s upper line, around 1.3620. In a case where the quote rises past 1.3620, the odds favoring a run-up toward the monthly high of 1.3976 and then to the 1.4000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Following that, the theoretical run-up challenging the previous peaks marked in 2020 and 2016, near 1.4670, could be expected. Meanwhile, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of June-October upside, near 1.3250, could restrict short-term USDCAD downside ahead of the tops marked in July and early September, near 1.3220 and 1.3210 in that order. Should the quote drops below 1.3210, the 1.3200 round figure will precede the stated flag’s bottom line, surrounding 1.3115, to challenge the pair’s further downside. It’s worth noting, however, that the bear’s dominance past 1.3115 won’t hesitate to recall August month’s low of 1.2727 to the chart.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers are all set to revisit $1,787Gold pierces 50-SMA as it braces for the weekly gains with a four-day uptrend. The upside momentum also gains support from the MACD and RSI indicators and portrays a nice bounce off the previous monthly peak. With this, the yellow metal is set for refreshing the monthly peak surrounding $1,787. In that case, the $1,800 threshold gains major attention ahead of August month’s high near $1,808. It’s worth noting that the bullion’s successful run-up beyond $1,808 enables the bulls to retake control and aim for June’s top surrounding $1,880. Alternatively, failure to stay beyond the 50-SMA level surrounding $1,756 could drag gold prices towards the seven-week-old resistance-turned-support that also encompasses the 100-SMA around $1,730-28. Should the precious metal fail to bounce the key support zone, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its September-November upside, near the $1,700 round figure, could act as the last defense for buyers. It should be observed that the quote’s weakness past $1,700 won’t hesitate to recall $1,680 on the chart. To sum up, gold buyers are all in to refresh the monthly high.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD is on the way to refresh monthly highEURUSD stays on the front foot after successfully breaking a one-week-old descending resistance line, now support around 1.0290. The upside momentum also crossed the support-turned-resistance line from November 04, close to 1.0370. That said, firmer RSI and bullish MACD signals keep the buyers hopeful of keeping the reins beynd the 1.0370 hurdle, which in turn could allow the pair to refresh the monthly top, currently around 1.0480. In doing so, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of November 10-21 moves, near 1.0560, will gain the market’s attention ahead of late June’s peak of 1.0615. Meanwhile, a downside break of the resistance-turned-support line of 1.0290 could quickly fetch EURUSD towards the weekly bottom surrounding 1.0226. Following that, a south-run towards a one-month-long horizontal support area between 1.0100 and 1.0085 will be in focus. In a case where the pair sellers dominate past 1.0085, the 200-SMA level near 0.9985 may act as the last defense of the buyers. To sum up, EURUSD remains firmer past short-term key resistances and signals additional upside.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD stays on the buyer’s radar on RBNZ dayDespite the RBNZ-led volatility, NZDUSD defends the early month breakout of the 100-DMA and a downward-sloping trend line from April 05. That said, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s April-October downturn, near 0.6090, restricts the Kiwi pair’s immediate declines ahead of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line, close to 0.6040 at the latest. Following that, the 100-DMA and a six-week-old ascending trend line, respectively near 0.6015 and the 0.6000 round figure, could act as the last defenses of the pair buyers before welcoming the bears. Meanwhile, the pair’s upside momentum needs a daily closing beyond the monthly high surrounding 0.6205 to convince NZDUSD buyers. In that case, the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-DMA, close to 0.6270 and 0.6305 in that order, will be in the spotlight. Should the New Zealand dollar remains firmer beyond the 200-DMA, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, also known as the golden ratio, might probe the north-run near 0.6455, a break of which won’t hesitate to challenge the tops marked in May-June around 0.6570-75. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to remain the bull’s favorite unless breaks the 0.6000 threshold.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls are at test, 0.6535 is the keyAUDUSD remains pressured after printing the first negative week in five. The bearish bias recently got acceptance from the 50-SMA breakdown. However, a 13-day-old support line near 0.6560 and the 100-SMA level surrounding 0.6535 challenge the bears of late. Should the quote drops below the key moving average, the odds of witnessing a gradual south-run towards a five-week-old ascending support line and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-October downturn, near 0.6350, could act as the last defense before directing sellers towards the yearly low near 0.6170. Meanwhile, the 50-SMA and a one-week-old descending trend line guard recovery moves of the AUDUSD pair around 0.6655 and 0.6700 respectively. Even if the Aussie pair buyers manage to cross the immediate hurdles, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the monthly top, close to 0.6760 and 0.6800 in that order, will act as additional upside filters to challenge the upside momentum. Following that, a run-up towards the top marked in September around 0.6920 and the 0.7000 threshold can’t be ruled out. Overall, AUDUSD bulls ran out of steam in the last week and further downside is on the cards.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold could drop to $1,730 but further downside appears doubtfulDespite the latest bounce off the 200-day EMA, a clear break of a fortnight-old ascending trend line and the RSI pullback from overbought territory favor gold bears to snap a two-week uptrend. The metal’s downside, however, appears limited as a three-month-old horizontal support area near $1,730 appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Also acting as a downside filter is the 100-day EMA surrounding $1,722, a break of which won’t hesitate to direct sellers towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of June-September south-run, close to $1,675. Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive below the support-turned-resistance line from November 03, around $1,795 at the latest. That said, a five-month-old horizontal area surrounding $1,805 could challenge the gold buyers afterward. In a case where the precious metal stays firmer past $1,805, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1,822 can act as a buffer during the run-up targeting the mid-2022 peak surrounding $1,875 will be in focus. Overall, gold is likely to decline further but the downside room appears limited.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls eye 200-DMA on Aussie employment data dayAlthough AUDUSD retreats from a descending trend line from early April, the 100-DMA challenges the pair bears as they cheer a retreat from a two-month high. The same paves the way for the Aussie pair’s another battle with the 200-DMA hurdle, around 0.6950 by the press time. It should be noted, however, that the overbought conditions of RSI suggest the quote’s third pullback from the key moving average resistance. Though, a clear upside break of the 200-DMA, as well as sustained trading beyond the 0.7000 psychological magnet, won’t hesitate to challenge the August 2022 peak near 0.7135. On the contrary, a daily closing beneath the 100-DMA support surrounding 0.6700. Following that, July’s low near 0.6680 can act as an extra downside filter before directing bears toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-October downturn, close to 0.6520 as we write. In a case where AUDUSD bears dominate past 0.6520, the odds of witnessing a fresh yearly low, currently around 0.6170, can’t be turned down. Overall, AUDUSD is on the bull’s radar but the 200-DMA appears strong challenge for the pair’s further upside.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD needs a sustained break of 1.0430 to avoid a pullbackEURUSD refreshed a 4.5-month high by piercing the 200-DMA ahead of the US Retail Sales. Even so, a successful break of the stated key moving average level, around 1.0430 by the press time, appears necessary for the bulls to keep the reins, in addition to the downbeat US data. Following that, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of May-September declines, near 1.0520, could act as an additional upside filter before directing buyers towards the late June high near 1.0615. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 1.0615, the odds of crossing the mid-2022 peak surrounding 1.0785 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, EURUSD’s failure to provide a daily closing below 1.0430 could trigger a pullback towards a six-month-old horizontal support area near 1.0370-50. Should the pair breaks the multi-day-old support region, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and September’s high, respectively near 1.0300 and 1.0195, could test the bears. It’s worth noting that a one-week-old support line and the 100-DMA, close to 1.0065 and 1.0025 in that order, are likely the last defenses for the pair buyers, a break of which will highlight the yearly low. Overall, EURUSD buyers remain in the driver’s seat but the further upside hinges on a 1.0430 breakout, as well as the US data.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bears brace for 136.00A clear downside break of the 100-DMA, as well as a daily closing below July’s peak, keeps USDJPY sellers hopeful. However, a convergence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-October upside and an upward-sloping support line from May 24, around 136.00, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Following that, a slump toward the 200-DMA support of 132.70 can’t be ruled out. However, an area comprising multiple levels marked since late April, around 131.25-50, could challenge the pair’s further downside. Alternatively, recovery moves need to stay beyond the 100-DMA support level surrounding 140.75-80 to trigger short-term corrective buying. Even so, 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracements, close to 142.20 and 145.90 in that order, could challenge the USDJPY buyers. In a case where the pair remains firmer past the 146.00 round figure, the odds of witnessing a run-up targeting the fresh 24-year high, currently around 152.00, can’t be ruled out. Overall, USDJPY sellers hold control but the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers need $1,720 breakout to keep the controlsGold prices are so far up for the second consecutive week as traders await the key US inflation data. In addition to the CPI print, the metal’s further upside also hinges on a convergence of the 100-DMA and a two-month-old descending trend line, surrounding $1,716. A clear break of $1,716 could enable the bulls to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of August-September downside, near $1,735. It is worth noting, however, that the late August swing high of around $1,765 could challenge the bullion buyers past $1,735 while any further upside won’t hesitate to challenge the August month’s high near $1,808. Alternatively, strong US inflation data and a sustained pullback from the $1,716 resistance confluence will need validation from the $1,700 threshold to convince gold bears. Following that, the 50-DMA level surrounding $1,672 could act as the last defense of buyers. In a case where the gold remains bearish past the 50-DMA breakdown, $1,630, $1,620 and the yearly low near $1,614 could offer intermediate halts before highlighting the $1,600 round figure on the chart. Overall, gold is likely to witness further upside but it all depends upon the US data, as well as the $1,720 breakout.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD gradually rises inside six-week-old bullish channelEURUSD extends the previous three-week uptrend as traders await Eurozone Retail Sales and the US inflation data. The quote’s latest upside could be portrayed by an upward-sloping trend channel. That said, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of September 12-28 downside, near 1.0070, lures short-term buyers. In a case where a nearly overbought RSI fails to stop the pair’s upside, the stated channel’s upper line near 1.0140 will gain the market’s attention, a break of which could challenge September’s peak surrounding 1.0200. Alternatively, the pullback move could aim for the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, near 0.9945 and 0.9865 in that order. Following that, the 200-SMA level near 0.9810 and the bullish channel’s support line, close to 0.9750, will act as the last defense of the EURUSD buyers. If the quote defies the bullish chart pattern, multiple supports near 0.9640 and 0.9580 could test the sellers before directing them towards refreshing the yearly low, currently around 0.9535. Overall, EURUSD is likely to grind higher but the room towards the north appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD buyers need validation from 1.0100 and FedDespite retreating from the 100-DMA during the last week, EURUSD defends the upside break of the 50-DMA and five-month-old descending trend line as traders await the Fed’s verdict on Wednesday. The major currency pair’s latest rebound also gains support from the firmer oscillators. As a result, bulls are hopeful of overcoming the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.0070. Even so, the previous monthly top surrounding 1.0095 and the 1.0100 hurdle could test the upside momentum before giving control to buyers. In that case, a run-up towards the horizontal resistance area comprising multiple levels marked since May 12, close to 1.0360, appears more likely to follow. Meanwhile, a downside break of the resistance-turned-support and the 50-DMA, surrounding 0.9880, could quickly drag EURUSD towards a five-week-long support line near 0.9780. Should the quote break the nearby trend line support, the 0.9670-60 support region will gain the bear’s attention before targeting the yearly low near 0.9535. Overall, EURUSD is up for reversing the downward trajectory established in June. However, it all depends upon how well the Federal Reserve policymakers can convince markets of their dovish hike.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD buyers have a long road ahead as the key week beginsUSDCAD crossed a one-week-old resistance the previous day but stayed on the way to the first monthly loss in three inside a fortnight-long bearish channel. That said, the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.3725 acts as an immediate hurdle to test the pair buyers before directing them to the stated channel’s upper line, close to 1.3745 at the latest. Following that, there are multiple levels near 1.3840-50 which could challenge the upside move targeting a fresh yearly top, currently around 1.3980. It’s worth noting that the 1.4000 psychological magnet may offer an extra buffer to the north before giving control to the bulls. Alternatively, the resistance-turned-support near 1.3555 and a monthly horizontal support zone surrounding 1.3500-3495 could restrict the short-term downside of the USDCAD pair. Following that, the aforementioned channel’s lower line, around 1.3460, might act as the last defense for the buyers. It should be observed that September 22 swing low near 1.3410 and the 1.3400 round figure might check the bears ahead of directing them to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-October advances, at 1.3343. Overall, USDCAD consolidates monthly loss as traders brace for the key week including the Fed’s verdict, US NFP and Canadian employment numbers.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers flex muscles around mid-$1,600sAlthough a one-week-old ascending trend line challenges gold bears of late, repeated failures to cross the 200-SMA signals further hardships for buyers. Even if the quote rises past the 200-SMA hurdle of $1,668, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the metal’s late August-September downturn, around $1,690, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Additionally, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, also known as the golden ratio, and the monthly peak could act as extra filters to the north around $1,710 and $1,730 in that order. Meanwhile, fresh selling could begin on a clear downside break of the stated weekly support line, close to $1,658 at the latest. Following that, the $1,640 could act as the immediate level to watch for the bears. However, the monthly horizontal support area near $1,620 will be a strong challenge for the sellers, a break of which could quickly drag gold prices to the $1,600 round figure while any further south-run won’t hesitate to challenge the April 2020 low near $1,572. Overall, gold remains on the bear’s radar but the fresh selling should wait for a $1,658 breakdown.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal