Get started

Fed

NZDUSD stays on the buyer’s radar on RBNZ dayDespite the RBNZ-led volatility, NZDUSD defends the early month breakout of the 100-DMA and a downward-sloping trend line from April 05. That said, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s April-October downturn, near 0.6090, restricts the Kiwi pair’s immediate declines ahead of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line, close to 0.6040 at the latest. Following that, the 100-DMA and a six-week-old ascending trend line, respectively near 0.6015 and the 0.6000 round figure, could act as the last defenses of the pair buyers before welcoming the bears. Meanwhile, the pair’s upside momentum needs a daily closing beyond the monthly high surrounding 0.6205 to convince NZDUSD buyers. In that case, the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-DMA, close to 0.6270 and 0.6305 in that order, will be in the spotlight. Should the New Zealand dollar remains firmer beyond the 200-DMA, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, also known as the golden ratio, might probe the north-run near 0.6455, a break of which won’t hesitate to challenge the tops marked in May-June around 0.6570-75. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to remain the bull’s favorite unless breaks the 0.6000 threshold.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls are at test, 0.6535 is the keyAUDUSD remains pressured after printing the first negative week in five. The bearish bias recently got acceptance from the 50-SMA breakdown. However, a 13-day-old support line near 0.6560 and the 100-SMA level surrounding 0.6535 challenge the bears of late. Should the quote drops below the key moving average, the odds of witnessing a gradual south-run towards a five-week-old ascending support line and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-October downturn, near 0.6350, could act as the last defense before directing sellers towards the yearly low near 0.6170. Meanwhile, the 50-SMA and a one-week-old descending trend line guard recovery moves of the AUDUSD pair around 0.6655 and 0.6700 respectively. Even if the Aussie pair buyers manage to cross the immediate hurdles, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the monthly top, close to 0.6760 and 0.6800 in that order, will act as additional upside filters to challenge the upside momentum. Following that, a run-up towards the top marked in September around 0.6920 and the 0.7000 threshold can’t be ruled out. Overall, AUDUSD bulls ran out of steam in the last week and further downside is on the cards.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold could drop to $1,730 but further downside appears doubtfulDespite the latest bounce off the 200-day EMA, a clear break of a fortnight-old ascending trend line and the RSI pullback from overbought territory favor gold bears to snap a two-week uptrend. The metal’s downside, however, appears limited as a three-month-old horizontal support area near $1,730 appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Also acting as a downside filter is the 100-day EMA surrounding $1,722, a break of which won’t hesitate to direct sellers towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of June-September south-run, close to $1,675. Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive below the support-turned-resistance line from November 03, around $1,795 at the latest. That said, a five-month-old horizontal area surrounding $1,805 could challenge the gold buyers afterward. In a case where the precious metal stays firmer past $1,805, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1,822 can act as a buffer during the run-up targeting the mid-2022 peak surrounding $1,875 will be in focus. Overall, gold is likely to decline further but the downside room appears limited.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls eye 200-DMA on Aussie employment data dayAlthough AUDUSD retreats from a descending trend line from early April, the 100-DMA challenges the pair bears as they cheer a retreat from a two-month high. The same paves the way for the Aussie pair’s another battle with the 200-DMA hurdle, around 0.6950 by the press time. It should be noted, however, that the overbought conditions of RSI suggest the quote’s third pullback from the key moving average resistance. Though, a clear upside break of the 200-DMA, as well as sustained trading beyond the 0.7000 psychological magnet, won’t hesitate to challenge the August 2022 peak near 0.7135. On the contrary, a daily closing beneath the 100-DMA support surrounding 0.6700. Following that, July’s low near 0.6680 can act as an extra downside filter before directing bears toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-October downturn, close to 0.6520 as we write. In a case where AUDUSD bears dominate past 0.6520, the odds of witnessing a fresh yearly low, currently around 0.6170, can’t be turned down. Overall, AUDUSD is on the bull’s radar but the 200-DMA appears strong challenge for the pair’s further upside.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD needs a sustained break of 1.0430 to avoid a pullbackEURUSD refreshed a 4.5-month high by piercing the 200-DMA ahead of the US Retail Sales. Even so, a successful break of the stated key moving average level, around 1.0430 by the press time, appears necessary for the bulls to keep the reins, in addition to the downbeat US data. Following that, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of May-September declines, near 1.0520, could act as an additional upside filter before directing buyers towards the late June high near 1.0615. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 1.0615, the odds of crossing the mid-2022 peak surrounding 1.0785 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, EURUSD’s failure to provide a daily closing below 1.0430 could trigger a pullback towards a six-month-old horizontal support area near 1.0370-50. Should the pair breaks the multi-day-old support region, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and September’s high, respectively near 1.0300 and 1.0195, could test the bears. It’s worth noting that a one-week-old support line and the 100-DMA, close to 1.0065 and 1.0025 in that order, are likely the last defenses for the pair buyers, a break of which will highlight the yearly low. Overall, EURUSD buyers remain in the driver’s seat but the further upside hinges on a 1.0430 breakout, as well as the US data.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bears brace for 136.00A clear downside break of the 100-DMA, as well as a daily closing below July’s peak, keeps USDJPY sellers hopeful. However, a convergence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-October upside and an upward-sloping support line from May 24, around 136.00, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Following that, a slump toward the 200-DMA support of 132.70 can’t be ruled out. However, an area comprising multiple levels marked since late April, around 131.25-50, could challenge the pair’s further downside. Alternatively, recovery moves need to stay beyond the 100-DMA support level surrounding 140.75-80 to trigger short-term corrective buying. Even so, 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracements, close to 142.20 and 145.90 in that order, could challenge the USDJPY buyers. In a case where the pair remains firmer past the 146.00 round figure, the odds of witnessing a run-up targeting the fresh 24-year high, currently around 152.00, can’t be ruled out. Overall, USDJPY sellers hold control but the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers need $1,720 breakout to keep the controlsGold prices are so far up for the second consecutive week as traders await the key US inflation data. In addition to the CPI print, the metal’s further upside also hinges on a convergence of the 100-DMA and a two-month-old descending trend line, surrounding $1,716. A clear break of $1,716 could enable the bulls to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of August-September downside, near $1,735. It is worth noting, however, that the late August swing high of around $1,765 could challenge the bullion buyers past $1,735 while any further upside won’t hesitate to challenge the August month’s high near $1,808. Alternatively, strong US inflation data and a sustained pullback from the $1,716 resistance confluence will need validation from the $1,700 threshold to convince gold bears. Following that, the 50-DMA level surrounding $1,672 could act as the last defense of buyers. In a case where the gold remains bearish past the 50-DMA breakdown, $1,630, $1,620 and the yearly low near $1,614 could offer intermediate halts before highlighting the $1,600 round figure on the chart. Overall, gold is likely to witness further upside but it all depends upon the US data, as well as the $1,720 breakout.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD gradually rises inside six-week-old bullish channelEURUSD extends the previous three-week uptrend as traders await Eurozone Retail Sales and the US inflation data. The quote’s latest upside could be portrayed by an upward-sloping trend channel. That said, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of September 12-28 downside, near 1.0070, lures short-term buyers. In a case where a nearly overbought RSI fails to stop the pair’s upside, the stated channel’s upper line near 1.0140 will gain the market’s attention, a break of which could challenge September’s peak surrounding 1.0200. Alternatively, the pullback move could aim for the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, near 0.9945 and 0.9865 in that order. Following that, the 200-SMA level near 0.9810 and the bullish channel’s support line, close to 0.9750, will act as the last defense of the EURUSD buyers. If the quote defies the bullish chart pattern, multiple supports near 0.9640 and 0.9580 could test the sellers before directing them towards refreshing the yearly low, currently around 0.9535. Overall, EURUSD is likely to grind higher but the room towards the north appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD buyers need validation from 1.0100 and FedDespite retreating from the 100-DMA during the last week, EURUSD defends the upside break of the 50-DMA and five-month-old descending trend line as traders await the Fed’s verdict on Wednesday. The major currency pair’s latest rebound also gains support from the firmer oscillators. As a result, bulls are hopeful of overcoming the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.0070. Even so, the previous monthly top surrounding 1.0095 and the 1.0100 hurdle could test the upside momentum before giving control to buyers. In that case, a run-up towards the horizontal resistance area comprising multiple levels marked since May 12, close to 1.0360, appears more likely to follow. Meanwhile, a downside break of the resistance-turned-support and the 50-DMA, surrounding 0.9880, could quickly drag EURUSD towards a five-week-long support line near 0.9780. Should the quote break the nearby trend line support, the 0.9670-60 support region will gain the bear’s attention before targeting the yearly low near 0.9535. Overall, EURUSD is up for reversing the downward trajectory established in June. However, it all depends upon how well the Federal Reserve policymakers can convince markets of their dovish hike.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD buyers have a long road ahead as the key week beginsUSDCAD crossed a one-week-old resistance the previous day but stayed on the way to the first monthly loss in three inside a fortnight-long bearish channel. That said, the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.3725 acts as an immediate hurdle to test the pair buyers before directing them to the stated channel’s upper line, close to 1.3745 at the latest. Following that, there are multiple levels near 1.3840-50 which could challenge the upside move targeting a fresh yearly top, currently around 1.3980. It’s worth noting that the 1.4000 psychological magnet may offer an extra buffer to the north before giving control to the bulls. Alternatively, the resistance-turned-support near 1.3555 and a monthly horizontal support zone surrounding 1.3500-3495 could restrict the short-term downside of the USDCAD pair. Following that, the aforementioned channel’s lower line, around 1.3460, might act as the last defense for the buyers. It should be observed that September 22 swing low near 1.3410 and the 1.3400 round figure might check the bears ahead of directing them to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-October advances, at 1.3343. Overall, USDCAD consolidates monthly loss as traders brace for the key week including the Fed’s verdict, US NFP and Canadian employment numbers.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers flex muscles around mid-$1,600sAlthough a one-week-old ascending trend line challenges gold bears of late, repeated failures to cross the 200-SMA signals further hardships for buyers. Even if the quote rises past the 200-SMA hurdle of $1,668, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the metal’s late August-September downturn, around $1,690, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Additionally, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, also known as the golden ratio, and the monthly peak could act as extra filters to the north around $1,710 and $1,730 in that order. Meanwhile, fresh selling could begin on a clear downside break of the stated weekly support line, close to $1,658 at the latest. Following that, the $1,640 could act as the immediate level to watch for the bears. However, the monthly horizontal support area near $1,620 will be a strong challenge for the sellers, a break of which could quickly drag gold prices to the $1,600 round figure while any further south-run won’t hesitate to challenge the April 2020 low near $1,572. Overall, gold remains on the bear’s radar but the fresh selling should wait for a $1,658 breakdown.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD braces for further upside but 0.9900 tests bullsEURUSD jostles with a four-month-old resistance line, as well as the 50-DMA, respectively around 0.9870 and 0.9900, as it lures buyers near a fortnight top. Given the firmer RSI and bullish MACD signals, the major currency pair is likely to refresh the monthly top, currently around the parity level. In doing so, September’s peak surrounding 1.0200 will be crucial to confirm the bullish trend. Following that, a run-up towards the five-week-old horizontal resistance area near 1.0360 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the EURUSD pair’s failure to provide a successful break above 0.9900 could drag it to the monthly support line, close to 0.9720 by the press time. Even so, the bears may want to wait for a clear break of the four-week-long support zone around 0.9660 to retake control. In that case, the yearly low of 0.9535 will gain the market’s attention. In a case where the quote remains weak past 0.9535, the 0.9000 psychological magnet should lure the sellers. Overall, EURUSD is up for regaining the bull’s confidence but a clear break of 0.990 is necessary.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold portrays bullish triangle but $1,643 is the key hurdleGold braces for the second weekly loss but the bears appear hesitant around the yearly low. On the top of that, a bullish triangle formation and nearly oversold RSI suggest that the metal may witness a bounce. Hence, a convergence of the monthly horizontal resistance and the three-week-old descending trend line, forming part of the bullish triangle, around $1,643, gain major attention. Should the metal buyers manage to cross the resistance confluence, an upswing to the 200-SMA level of $1,678 becomes imminent on the way to the theoretical target surrounding the monthly high near $1,700. Alternatively, pullback moves need to defy the triangle formation by breaking the $1,620 support. Even so, the yearly bottom of $1,614-15 could test the bears before directing them to the $1,600 threshold. Following that, April 2020 low and August 2019 top, respectively near $1,572 and $1,557, could entertain the sellers. In a case where the gold price remains weak past $1,557 the year 2020 low of $1,451 will be in focus. Overall, gold sellers are running out of steam but the buyers need a clear break of $1,643 for even a small rebound.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD signals further downside, 0.9670 in focusAfter staying off the bear’s radar during the first two days of the week, EURUSD returned to the red zone as it broke the weekly support line. The trend line breakdown joins downbeat oscillators to keep sellers hopeful of meeting an upward-sloping trend line support from September 28, around 0.9670. The quote’s further downside, however, will be challenged by the monthly low of 0.9631, a break of which could quickly drag prices towards the multi-year low marked in the last month around 0.9535. Alternatively, the support-turned-resistance around 0.9840 guards the immediate recovery moves. However, a convergence of 200-SMA and a five-week-old descending resistance line, close to 0.9855, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bulls. It should be noted, though, that the pair’s successful break of 0.9855 will open the doors for the run-up toward challenging the monthly peak surrounding the parity mark that seems the last defense of the bears. Overall, EURUSD has already welcomed the bears but the party appears a small one unless breaking 0.9670.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD braces for recovery near YTD low, 0.6365 is crucialAUDUSD rebounds inside a three-week-old falling wedge bullish chart formation and it becomes more important for the short-term buyer’s return as the quote is around the 2.5-year low. It should, however, be noted that only an upside break of 0.6290 hurdle won’t be enough to convince bulls as a horizontal area surrounding 0.6345-65 appears a tough nut to crack for them before retaking control. Also asking as the upside filter is another horizontal zone from September 26, close to 0.6540, as well as the 200-SMA near 0.6580. Meanwhile, pullback moves remain elusive beyond the stated wedge’s support, near 0.6180 by the press time, breaking which the yearly low near 0.6170 could act as the validation point for the AUDUSD pair’s further weakness. During the pair’s weakness past 0.6170, the 0.6000 psychological magnet will be on the bear’s radar ahead of April 2020 low near 0.5980. Overall, AUDUSD bears are running out of steam and can trigger a short-term rebound. It’s worth noting, however, that the bulls have a long and bumpy way to ride.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls need to cross 147.70 to stay on the tableUSDJPY poked the year 1998 high on Thursday while piercing a weekly resistance line, staying near the immediate resistance line of late. That said, the RSI is overbought as the pair struggles with the 24-year high near 147.70, which in turn suggests hardships for the further upside move. If the quote crosses the 147.70 hurdle, its run-up towards an upward-sloping trend line from late April, near 149.00, and the 150.00 psychological magnet will become imminent. It’s worth noting, however, that the buyer’s dominance past 150.00 won’t hesitate to challenge the late 1990 peak surrounding 151.65. Meanwhile, sellers could take entries if the USDJPY pair breaks a 2.5-month-old support line, currently around 144.60. Following that, a south-run to late September low near 140.35 and then to the 140.00 round figure can’t be ruled out. However, July’s top near 139.40 could challenge the sellers afterward, failing to do so can draw a gradual south-run towards August month’s bottom close to 130.40. Overall, USDJPY is near the key resistances as the overbought RSI suggests that the bulls are running out of steam. Hence, a pullback is well-expected but the change of trend is off the table unless the quote breaks 144.60.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold’s rebound remains unconvincing below $1,692A two-month-old previous resistance line defends gold buyers as they seek clarity ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Also keeping the metal bulls hopeful is the 50-SMA’s piercing of the 200-SMA from below, known as the bull cross or golden cross. It’s worth noting, however, that the recovery remains elusive unless the bullion stays successfully beyond the aforementioned SMA convergence near $1,690-92. Following that, a run-up toward the monthly high near $1,730 appears imminent. Even so, the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the quote’s August-September downside, respectively near $1,735 and $1,767, will be in the spotlight. Alternatively, a downside break of the $1660 support confluence, including the resistance-turned-support line and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, could convince gold sellers. In that case, the $1,640 and the yearly low of $1,614 might entertain the bears on their way to the $1,600 threshold. If the metal prices remain weak past $1,600, the April 2020 low near $1,570 should become the yearly bottom. Overall, gold is teasing the buyers but confirmation is necessary from both, the US inflation data and technical details.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD braces for fresh yearly low ahead of key events/dataEURUSD bears take a rest around the two-week-old horizontal support area while waiting for this week’s key catalysts, namely FOMC Meeting Minutes and US CPI. That said, sluggish RSI and bearish MACD signals join the quote’s sustained trading below the 50-SMA to keep sellers hopeful. However, a clear downside break of the 0.9665-50 region appears necessary for the fresh leg down. Following that, the latest multi-year low, marked in September around 0.9535, will gain the attention ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of August-October moves, close to 0.9485. In a case where the pair remains weak past 0.9485, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the September 2001 high near 0.9330 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, recovery moves need to cross the 50-SMA level of 0.9800 for the start. Following that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the August-September downside and the monthly high, respectively around 0.9950 and the 1.0000 psychological magnet should lure the EURUSD buyers. If the quote remains firmer past 1.0000, a two-month-old downward sloping resistance line, around 1.0025 by the press time appears the last defense of the bears. To sum up, EURUSD appears bearish ahead of this week’s important data/events.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebound is at test near 0.9830 resistanceEURUSD defends the first weekly gain in three around the 20-year low during early Monday. The recovery also gains support from the RSI and the MACD. However, an downward sloping resistance line from September 12, around 0.9830 by the press time, challenges the immediate upside moves. In a case where the quote rises past 0.9830, the 200-SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s August-September downturn, respectively near 0.9950 and 1.0050, could challenge the bulls. It’s worth noting that a two-month-old downward sloping trend line around 1.0090, quickly followed by the 1.0100 threshold, appears the defense of the pair sellers. Alternatively, the 50-SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, close to 0.9740 and 0.9730 in that order, could test the EURUSD pair’s pullback. Following that, the 0.9640 and the 0.9580 levels might poke the bears before giving them control. In that case, the latest trough surrounding 0.9540 should act as a buffer before highlighting the September 2001 peak near 0.9330. Overall, the EURUSD rebound is likely to extend for a while as traders await the key data from the US. However, the bearish trend isn’t challenged yet.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold consolidates monthly losses inside bearish channelGold braces for the first weekly gain in three while bouncing off a two-year low inside a one-month-old bearish channel. That said, the metal’s latest recovery approaches a fortnight-old hurdle surrounding $1665. Any further upside, however, will be challenged by the stated channel’s upper limit, close to $1,680. If the buyers manage to defy the bearish chart pattern, the 200-SMA level surrounding $1,707 could act as the last defense of the bears before activating the run-up to refresh the monthly top, currently around $1,734. Alternatively, gold’s pullback may aim for the latest swing low surrounding $1,641 before directing the bears towards the yearly bottom of $1,614. In a case where the bullion sellers keep controls past $1,614, the aforementioned channel’s bottom at around $1,607 and the $1,600 should probe the further downside. It should be noted that the quote’s weakness past $1,600 won’t hesitate to aim for the tops marked during August and September 2019, around $1555-57. Overall, gold holds onto the bearish trajectory but a short-term rebound can’t be ruled out.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls are bracing for 147.00USDJPY has been navigating inside the 300-pip trading range at a 24-year high in the last three weeks. Despite the yen pair’s latest inaction, the lower low on prices joins the lower bottom on the RSI (14), which in turn joins firmer MACD to keep the buyers hopeful. However, a clear upside break of 144.75, comprising the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s late March to early August moves, becomes necessary to poke a five-month-old ascending trend line resistance near 147.00. During the rise, the latest swing top around 146.00 could probe the buyers while a successful rise beyond the 147.00 hurdle might flash the 150.00 threshold on the chart. Alternatively, the 21-DMA support around 142.60 may act as an immediate halt during the USDJPY pair’s pullback before highlighting the stated range’s bottom, including the 61.8% FE level near 141.60. In a case where the pair drops below 141.60, the 140.00 round figure and July’s high near 139.40 could lure the bears. It should be noted that the sustained downtrend past 139.40 could drag prices towards the 100-DMA support of 135.70. Overall, USDJPY remains on the buyer’s radar but needs a trigger to activate the next leg to the north.
by MTradingGlobal