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Bitcoin: BTCUSD extends recovery from 200-SMA to trim lossesBitcoin (BTCUSD) rises to a week’s high, continuing its rebound from the 200-SMA and breaking through the 100-bar simple moving average (SMA). BTCUSD bulls aim for a new three-month high! Along with a solid bounce from the 200-SMA, a positive RSI (14) and bullish MACD signals support BTCUSD’s push past the 100-SMA. This indicates potential for more gains, even though the RSI is nearing overbought territory, suggesting limited upward movement soon. Key technical levels to watch… With Bitcoin’s strong recovery from the 200-SMA and a successful run-up beyond the 100-SMA, buyers are ready to challenge a six-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $64,700. However, they may face hurdles at the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement of July-August downside near $65,700 and an upward trendline from late August around $66,900 afterward. On the downside, the 100-SMA around $63,300 is holding BTCUSD up, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support is near $62,200. That said, another key support is found at the 200-day moving average of around $60,700, with the psychological level of $60,000 serving as buyers' last line of defense. Recovery remains preferable… With Bitcoin bouncing back from key moving averages and a potential pullback in the US Dollar due to upcoming US inflation data and FOMC minutes, BTCUSD looks set for further upside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MTradingGlobal
1
Gold: “Bullish Pennant” lures XAUUSD buyers on US NFP DayGold prices are starting to rise, reducing weekly losses on the first positive day in three. This reflects a market shift toward the traditional safe-haven asset as investors remain cautious ahead of the US employment report for September, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Buyers remain in control Even though gold has lacked momentum over the past two weeks, it is holding above the late September breakout from a four-month trend line resistance, which now acts as support. The XAUUSD also forms a “Bullish Pennant” pattern, attracting buyers. The rising RSI (14) indicates strength, but the sluggish MACD and pre-NFP jitters are holding back immediate movement in the precious metal. Key technical levels to watch Gold's immediate focus is on the bullish pennant's resistance line, currently near $2,665, which poses a challenge for intraday buyers. Above that, the recent all-time high of $2,685 and the $2,700 mark will attract bulls. If gold trades successfully above $2,700, it could target around $2,735, which is the theoretical goal of the pennant. On the downside, support levels are set at $2,638 and $2,635, thanks to the pennant's bottom line and a long-term resistance-turned-support. Further down, an upward-sloping support line from early August and the 200-SMA will provide additional support for XAUUSD near $2,580 and $2,560, respectively. Gold bulls can overlook pullbacks Although US employment data may pose challenges for gold buyers, several strong support levels make it tough for sellers to regain control. This suggests that bulls can stay confident, even if prices experience a pullback—unless there’s a significant drop below the 200-SMA.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD: Bears seek confirmation from “Double Tops” and US NFPEarly Thursday, EURUSD prints a five-day losing streak, reaching its lowest point in three weeks. The Euro pair traders are holding their breath for the September US employment report, especially after strong data from ADP and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Sellers approach key supports In addition to strong US data and hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell, softer inflation in the Eurozone is adding pressure on the EURUSD pair. A clear drop below the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) keeps bearish sentiment alive. Plus, the lack of an oversold RSI (14) and bearish signals from the MACD suggest further weakness ahead. Important levels to watch With the EURUSD pair breaking below the 50-EMA and facing bearish technical and fundamental factors, it looks poised to test the previous monthly low around 1.1000. However, a six-month-old support line will likely challenge sellers around 1.0980. Importantly, the convergence of the 100-EMA and an ascending support line from late June, near 1.0960, is a crucial level to monitor. A drop below this level could push prices toward the target of the “Double Tops” pattern, around 1.0800. Alternatively, the 50-EMA around 1.1045 serves as the immediate barrier for any recovery in the EURUSD pair. If the bulls can break through this level, they’ll face further resistance at 1.1100 and the “Double Tops” around 1.1200. A push above 1.1200 would challenge the current bearish trend and open the door for buyers to target the 2023 peak of approximately 1.1275. Bears reign is about to be challenged Overall, the EURUSD pair looks bearish in the short term, but there’s limited downside potential before reaching crucial technical levels. This means upcoming data and events will play a vital role in determining the next move.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: “Rising Wedge” signals selling pressure on PoundGBPUSD experienced its biggest decline in a week the previous day as the US Dollar strengthened ahead of the September jobs data. The Pound Sterling tested a bearish rising wedge pattern but managed to bounce back from the lower line of this formation. Despite this slight recovery, traders are cautious and watching closely as they await the US ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday, followed by the important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. Sellers flex muscles… Besides the US Dollar’s rebound before the key US data, bearish MACD signals also keep the GBPUSD sellers hopeful. However, the nearly oversold conditions of RSI (14), the quote’s sustained trading beyond the 200-SMA, and downbeat expectations from the US statistics suggest a long and bumpy road for the bears. Technical levels to watch… If GBP/USD falls below 1.3240, it will confirm a bearish rising wedge pattern, making this level critical for traders. Another important support level is the 200-SMA at 1.3180. Should the pair break below this, it may target the horizontal support zone around 1.3030, with 1.3000 serving as a psychological level. Further declines could lead to August's low near 1.2665 and possibly down to the wedge's target of 1.2370. On the upside, the GBPUSD pair faces resistance at 1.3310 and 1.3360, with the latest peak around 1.3435. If the pair breaks above 1.3435, it will encounter the top line of the rising wedge near 1.3465. Successfully moving past 1.3465 could set the stage for a rally toward the February 2022 high of about 1.3645. Expect a price pullback, but not a significant drop Overall, the GBPUSD buyers appear to be losing momentum, with sellers positioned near the bottom of the wedge and the 200-SMA. However, potential weakness in US data and several support levels make it challenging for sellers to gain full control.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Recovery remains elusive below 146.30On Tuesday morning, USDJPY gained momentum, continuing its recovery from a support level that had been holding for two months. It’s getting closer to the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while still within a bearish trend that started in early August. This rise reflects the US Dollar's bounce after Fed Chair Jerome Powell eased expectations for two more 0.50% rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024. However, traders look forward to upcoming US employment data and Japanese reports to see how the market will move. Bulls flex muscles for a long road ahead… In addition to bouncing off the two-month support zone, an upward trend in the RSI (14) and a potential bullish crossover on the MACD are boosting the USDJPY's rise toward the key EMA. However, the ongoing bearish trend channel and differing monetary policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could create challenges for the bulls. Key technical levels to watch… In the short term, the 200-EMA around 144.75 and the upper line of the bearish channel near 146.30 are significant hurdles for USDJPY buyers. If they push past these levels, the pair could rise toward the mid-August high around 149.40 and possibly hit the 150.00 mark. It's important to note that the 152.00 level seems to be the last stronghold for Yen sellers. On the flip side, the horizontal support area between 141.75 and 141.65 offers some stability for USDJPY in the short term, protecting it from a drop toward the monthly low and the bottom of the bearish channel near 139.55 and 138.75. If the pair breaks below 138.75, the mid-2023 low of around 137.20 may serve as the final defense for buyers. The road toward the north appears long and bumpy While technical indicators hint at a potential recovery for USDJPY, the underlying fundamentals pose challenges for a sustained bullish move. Buyers should be cautious before making large investments.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold approaches key upside hurdle ahead of US PCE InflationAfter hitting an all-time high, gold prices are losing momentum as buyers await the US September Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation. Bulls may slow down, but are still in the game On Thursday, FOMC Chair Jerome Powell's reluctance to discuss monetary policy joined the market’s dovish bets on the US central bank to propel the Gold price, especially amid the rush for a haven amid uncertain markets. Technically, the bullish MACD signals add strength to the upside bias for the precious metal. However, the overbought RSI (14) and nearness to an upward-sloping resistance line from December 2023, close to $2,695 at the latest, challenge the bullion’s further advances. Technical levels to watch With the overbought RSI indicating a $2,695 hurdle for gold buyers, the $2,700 level serves as an additional barrier to monitor for better trading opportunities. Beyond that, a potential surge toward the 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of February-June moves, near $2,757, can’t be ruled out. Gold sellers should watch for a clear break below the four-month resistance line at $2,620. If this occurs, the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci Extension levels around $2,578 and $2,522 could draw in bears. Key targets below $2,522 include $2,467 and $2,399. That said, a break below the convergence of the 200-SMA and a year-long support line at $2,288 could signal a trend change for traders. What next? A positive surprise from the US Core PCE Price Index could spark the anticipated pullback in gold prices. However, the dovish Fed stance and strong technical support may prevent XAUUSD bears from gaining control.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD: Bulls need validation from 1.1200 and Fed Chair PowellEURUSD is gaining support after falling from a 14-month high, as buyers wait for comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. Upside remains favored The EURUSD pair is holding above a two-week rising support line and the 200-SMA, along with an upward trend line from late June, which keeps buyers optimistic. The steady RSI (14) also indicates a slow upward movement. Technical levels to watch Even with key support levels helping the EURUSD pair and the RSI suggesting an upward trend, the bulls may struggle to break through the horizontal resistance around 1.1200. If they succeed, the next targets could be the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions (FE) of the pair’s August-September moves, respectively near 1.1215 and 1.1265. The previous yearly high around 1.1275 is a crucial point for the bears; if that breaks, prices could reach the 2022 peak of 1.1495. Meanwhile, EURUSD sellers should look for a clear drop below the immediate rising support line around 1.1125 to enter the market. However, the 200-SMA and a three-month trend line near 1.1080 and 1.0950 will be important obstacles for sellers. If the price stays below 1.0950, it could fall further toward the previous monthly low of 1.0780. Charts, Powell in the spotlight Along with the technical factors, comments from Fed Chair Powell will be important for EURUSD bulls. The recent rise is driven by market expectations of two more 0.50% rate cuts from the US central bank in 2024. If Powell dismisses these expectations, which seems unlikely, a downward reversal in Euro prices could happen.
by MTradingGlobal
1
GBPUSD: Overbought RSI, key resistance test buyersGBPUSD bulls are pausing at their highest level since February 2020, marking six days of gains despite a slow market atmosphere. That said, the Pound Sterling is facing a liquidity squeeze as we approach key data and events this week, which could impact its upward momentum at these multi-month highs. Pullback appears imminent but bulls can keep the reins Apart from the market’s anxiety ahead of this week’s key catalysts, the overbought RSI (14) line and a 10-week-old ascending resistance line, close to 1.3430 at the latest, suggest consolidation in the GBPUSD prices. Important technical levels A pullback in GBPUSD seems likely, with key short-term support levels at the 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci extensions of the quote’s August-September moves, respectively near 1.3375 and 1.3300. However, the previous monthly high near 1.3265 and the 21-SMA at 1.3190 are important, as they align with the bottom of a bearish wedge pattern near 1.3140, which could act as a final defense for buyers. On the flip side, for buyers to regain control, they need to break through the 1.3440 resistance. If they succeed, GBPUSD could target the February 2022 peak of around 1.3645 and the 2022 high of 1.3748. A sustained move above 1.3750 could even lead to a challenge of the psychological level at 1.4000. All eyes on US data/events Technical indicators for GBPUSD suggest a pullback may be on the horizon, even as recent U.S. factors favor ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts throughout 2024. Therefore, key insights from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index— the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—on Friday will be vital for determining the market's direction.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Bears have strong reasons to regain controlAs Yen traders return from a long weekend, the USDJPY is testing its recent dip from a five-week-old downward resistance line, influenced by a rebound in the US Dollar. It’s worth noting that the quote’s recovery in the last week benefited from positive signals from the RSI and MACD indicators, bouncing back from a nine-month horizontal support zone. Sellers keep the reins While USDJPY buyers are making their presence felt, a bearish RSI divergence and a moving average crossover, combined with the resistance line, keep sellers optimistic about potential downward moves. The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed below the 200-EMA, signaling a bearish trend. Additionally, the higher high on the indicator contrasts with the lower high in prices, reinforcing the bearish RSI divergence. Key technical levels to watch Sellers will gain confidence if USDJPY breaks below a seven-week horizontal support area around 141.70-80. However, the lows from December 2023 and September 2024 pose a challenge for bears at 140.20-139.60. If the pair drops below 139.60, it could test the mid-2023 low near 137.30. On the flip side, buyers will initially target the falling resistance line around 144.25. If successful, they may then aim for the monthly high and late August peak near 147.20 and 149.40, respectively. Additionally, the 150.00 level acts as an important barrier for any upward movement. Bulls face more challenges than bears Whether through technical signals or the differing monetary policies of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), USDJPY sellers face a relatively smoother journey compared to buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
Bitcoin: BTCUSD pierces 200-SMA, but buyers face challengesBitcoin (BTC) has climbed to its highest level in a month, crossing the important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) early Monday. This rise continues a two-week upward trend, supported by a weaker US Dollar. However, traders are feeling cautious as they prepare for a big week ahead, which includes the preliminary PMIs for September, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Bulls gain acceptance Despite hesitance due to upcoming data, Bitcoin buyers are gaining confidence after crossing the key moving average. Positive MACD signals, a strong RSI, and a successful rebound from a two-week rising support line are pushing back against bearish sentiment for the cryptocurrency pair. Key technical levels to watch As Bitcoin buyers gain strength, they must overcome a horizontal resistance zone around $65,100–$65,400. If they succeed, the next challenge will be a downward trend line from mid-March, currently near $68,500, before they can aim for the yearly high of about $73,800. Notably, the $70,000 and $72,000 levels will serve as additional hurdles. Conversely, sellers need to break below the 200-day moving average at around $63,900 to take control. However, they will face challenges at the rising support line near $61,000 and the psychological level of $60,000. If they manage to push lower, they might target $57,000 initially, followed by a monthly low of around $52,550. Poised for short-term strength With strong technical signals and a generally weaker US Dollar boosting trader confidence, Bitcoin (BTC) prices are expected to stay solid in the short term. However, a series of resistance levels may challenge the bulls along the way.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Sellers remain in driver’s seat despite BoJ’s status quoEarly Friday, USDJPY reverses the previous day’s run-up to the highest level in a fortnight as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) leaves monetary policy unchanged, as expected. Oscillators, technical hurdles push back buyers within falling wedge USDJPY recently reversed from a six-week resistance level, and the RSI is pulling back while the MACD shows signs of a bearish crossover, which keeps sellers optimistic. Additionally, the price remains below the 200-Exponential Moving Average, making it harder for Yen buyers. However, a bullish falling wedge pattern that has formed since early August could encourage buyers. Technical levels to watch The USDJPY pair's drop from a key resistance level, along with weak indicators, suggests sellers will target below 142.00. Key levels to watch are the psychological mark at 140.00 and the monthly low around 139.55. If buyers can’t hold above the falling wedge's bottom near 139.30, the price could drop to the mid-2023 low around 137.20. On the flip side, the 1.5-month-old horizontal resistance area near 143.70-144.00 appears a tough nut to crack for the USDJPY bulls. Following that, the quote’s quick jump toward the stated bullish wedge’s top line around 145.00 can’t be ruled out. If the price stays above 145.00, it could aim for 156.00, but breaking the 200-EMA at 145.30 is essential for that rally. What next? Given the monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as well as the quote’s sustained trading below the key resistances, the USDJPY sellers are likely to have some more days to cheer.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Post-FOMC optimism stays intact despite pre-BoE retreatGBPUSD consolidates Fed-induced gains as traders await monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England (BoE). That said, the Cable pair reached a fresh 30-month high after the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.50% rate cut that drowned the US Dollar across the board. Buyers stay optimist Although the Pound Sterling struggles to hold at a 2.5-month high, not to forget its failure to provide sustained breakout of a month-old horizontal resistance, the quote defends the mid-month breakout of a descending resistance line from late August, now support. Also keeping buyers hopeful is the pair’s recent rebound from the 100-SMA and steady RSI conditions. It’s worth noting, however, that the bearish MACD signals and a likely status-quo of the BoE could join the key upside hurdle to challenge the bulls. Technical levels to watch For GBPUSD buyers, the immediate resistance to watch is a month-old range between 1.3230 and 1.3240 if the BoE sounds hawkish. After that, the focus will shift to the 1.3300 level. If the Cable price stays above 1.3300, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) levels around 1.3305 and 1.3375 could attract buyers. On the flip side, GBPUSD sellers need a clear break below the 1.3150-45 support zone, which includes the 100-SMA and a month-old previous resistance line, to weaken buyer’s confidence. If they succeed, the next tests will be the 1.3100 level and the 200-SMA at 1.3025, as well as the key psychological level of 1.3000. Upward bias seems favorable Whether due to an expected hawkish pause from the BoE or the market's response to the Fed's dovish surprise, along with GBPUSD trading above the 1.3150-45 resistance-turned-support, the pair is likely to stay bullish unless the UK central bank surprises traders.
by MTradingGlobal
Analysis of BTC Response to Previous FED Rate CutsToday's analysis focuses on the impact of past Federal Reserve rate cuts on Bitcoin (BTC) price action. In 2020, following a rate cut, BTC initially experienced a modest increase, followed by a significant decline of approximately -63%. The price found support around the 200-day moving average. As we approach the potential rate cut on September 18, 2024, we should consider the possibility of a similar market reaction. Key levels to monitor include $28,000 (300-day MA) and $37,000 (200-day MA). While historical patterns suggest caution, a strong rally to levels around $65,000 to $68,000 could occur. However, if BTC breaks its previous all-time high of $73,000, we might see a structural shift towards a more parabolic trend. Please note that this analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Proceed with caution and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by utkarshx27
EURUSD: Bulls struggle to keep control on FOMC DayEURUSD picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s retreat from a month-old horizontal hurdle as traders prepare for the all-important US Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision. In doing so, the Euro pair defends last week’s U-turn from a 200-SMA while making rounds to a four-week-long bearish channel’s top line. Buyers are cautious Along with the strong rebound from the 200-SMA, a positive RSI (14) supports the bullish outlook for the EURUSD pair. However, the key resistance area, a potential bearish signal on the MACD, and the cautious market sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting may challenge any upward momentum. Key technical levels For EURUSD bulls to take charge, they must break above the key horizontal resistance zone around 1.1145-55, especially if the Fed signals a dovish stance. If they succeed, the focus will shift to the yearly peak near 1.1200. After that, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) levels of August-September moves at 1.1215 and 1.1265 will be next, followed by the previous yearly high of 1.1275. Conversely, any pullback in EURUSD should find strong support at the 200-SMA level around 1.1045. Even if it falls below this, the monthly low of 1.1000, the lower boundary of the bearish channel near 1.0980, and an upward trend line from late June around 1.0930 will likely hold the bears back before they gain control. Sellers have a long and bumpy road ahead… Even if buyers face challenges, EURUSD sellers still have a tough road ahead before taking control. Key obstacles include the Fed's potential consecutive rate cuts in 2024 and a rising support line around 1.0930, which are both important factors to watch.
by MTradingGlobal
Dollar IndexHello and welcome to this analysis With FED all set to start the rate cut cycle from today's FOMC meet, DXY is expected to enter the potential reversal zone (PRZ) of not one but two bullish Harmonic patterns, namely, bullish AB=CD and bullish Crab, likely forming a triple bottom in the weekly time frame. The PRZ is between 100 - 99.60 while the patterns would be considered invalid below 99.50, for a possible bounce (if not reversal) till 103. When will it enter the PRZ by? Will depend totally on hawkish/dovish, FED Chairman Jeremy Powell is in his statement today. Regards
TVC:DXY
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
Bitcoin: BTCUSD bulls take a breather as FOMC week beginsBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been under pressure for the third consecutive day as traders cautiously approach a crucial week. After briefly halting a two-week losing streak, Bitcoin is struggling once more as everyone eyes the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September policy announcement set for Wednesday. Bitcoin buyers lack conviction Be it the repeated reversal from a seven-week-old descending resistance line or bearish MACD signals, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) sellers appear flexing muscles ahead of this week’s key US Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision. It’s worth noting, however, that a weeklong bullish trend channel joins a convergence of 50 and 100 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to restrict the short-term downtrend of the top-tier cryptocurrency pair. Key technical levels to watch Firstly, a convergence of the key EMAs and the aforementioned bullish channel’s bottom line offers an important challenge to the BTCUSD sellers around the $58,350-200 zone. Following that, Bitcoin sellers can aim for an eight-day-old horizontal support surrounding $55,600. If the bears keep the reins past $55,600, the monthly of nearly $52,550 and the $50,000 threshold will be in the spotlight. On the upside, Bitcoin will first encounter resistance around $60,000 and a downward trend line near $60,300. A successful break above this could lead to testing the bullish channel's top line around $61,900 and the $62,000 mark. BTCUSD sellers to keep the reins Bitcoin sellers remain in control, with the cryptocurrency facing significant resistance and a long, uncertain path ahead.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold: Prices renew all-time high under $2,600, but expect bumpsGold prices hit a fresh record high around $2,570 early Friday as it extends the previous day’s upside break of a three-week-old resistance, now support around $2,525. This rise is fueled by increasing expectations of significant rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and a push against a rising trend line from mid-July. A bumpy road for the bulls ahead… Despite the Fed's rate cut hopes supporting gold, an eight-week resistance line and an overbought RSI (Relative Strength Index) suggest a possible price pullback. Additionally, a potential bounce in the US Dollar, especially with upcoming reports on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, might give gold buyers a temporary pause. Nevertheless, the breakout above resistance and bullish MACD signals keep the buyers optimistic. Technical levels to watch… To continue climbing, gold prices need to break above a two-month resistance line around $2,570. If successful, gold could quickly reach the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) level of the bullion’s late July to early September moves near $2,581 and then target $2,600. If gold surpasses $2,600, it could aim for the 78.6% and 100% FE levels around $2,610 and $2,650, respectively. If prices pull back, they might first test the 50% and 38.2% FE levels near $2,560 and $2,540. A key support level at $2,525 could also come into play. If gold drops below $2,525, it might struggle to hold above $2,500 and $2,470, making those levels significant for potential declines. What next? Gold buyers are expected to remain strong, thanks to anticipated rate cuts from major central banks like the Fed. However, there might be a temporary dip in prices before the next rally.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD: Bears Eye 1.0980 as ECB Interest Rate Decision LoomsEURUSD prints its first daily gain in five days as traders recover from a month-long low, preparing for the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming policy announcements. Despite the recent slowing of US inflation and speculation about possible significant rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve in late 2024, the Euro bulls remain cautious due to the ECB's dovish stance and economic concerns in the Eurozone. EURUSD sellers keep control Even though the Euro is recovering before the key event, the overall bearish outlook for the pair remains intact. It continues to show weakness with the 20-EMA breakdown early in the week, bearish MACD signals, and a steady RSI (14) line. Key technical levels to watch Among the key technical levels, sellers are particularly focused on the convergence of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a previous resistance line around 1.0980. Following that, an ascending support line from late June near 1.0900 is also important to monitor. If the price remains below 1.0900, it could drop further to the previous monthly low around 1.0790. On the other hand, for EURUSD buyers to regain control, they need to see the price break above the 21-day EMA at around 1.1050 and a falling resistance line at about 1.1070. Additionally, a hawkish rate cut from the ECB would support this move. If the price manages to rise past 1.1070, it could test the monthly high of 1.1155 and the yearly peak around 1.1200. Downside bias gains acceptance Looking ahead, there's uncertainty about the ECB’s upcoming rate decision. Some traders anticipate a 0.50% cut, while most expect a smaller 0.25% reduction. If the ECB surprises the market with a more aggressive or unexpected rate move, it could lead to significant volatility. Therefore, EURUSD traders should hold off on new trades until the ECB's decision is announced. They should set a stop-loss to manage their risk if they are currently holding short positions.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Sellers need confirmation from 1.3050 and UK/US dataGBP/USD remains flat at its lowest level in three weeks, ending a two-day losing streak. As traders await crucial economic data from the UK and the US, the Pound Sterling is testing a resistance level from late December 2023, which is now providing immediate support. GBPUSD bears flex muscles… Despite a long-standing resistance-turned-support line and upcoming data challenges, recent technical signals suggest further declines. Monday’s close below the 20-day moving average (SMA) and bearish MACD signals indicate potential further downside. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not yet oversold, keeping sellers hopeful. Technical levels to watch… Firstly, the resistance-turned-support line surrounding 1.3050 restricts the GBPUSD pair’s immediate downside. Following that, the quote’s quick decline to the 1.3000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. However, March’s peak of around 1.2890 and the 1.2800 round figure will precede the 200-SMA level of 1.2720 to challenge the Cable bears afterward. For buyers, a positive shift in UK data and a daily close above the 20-SMA at 1.3090 are needed to consider entering. Even so, a slew of resistances near 1.3150 and 1.3180 could test the pair’s following advances ahead of directing the bulls toward the recent peak surrounding 1.3265 and then to the 1.3300 threshold. Consolidation expected… Overall, the GBP/USD may see further declines if the economic data from the UK remains weak and US inflation data improves, unless the upcoming reports provide an unexpected boost.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: "Death Cross" makes sellers optimisticUSDJPY ends a four-day decline and rebounds from its lowest point in a month as traders start the US inflation week with mixed feelings, especially after a disappointing employment report on Friday. Sellers are in control Despite the brief pause to recover from an ascending support line from late December 2023, the "Death Cross" on the moving averages and a possible bearish cross on the MACD suggest that sellers remain dominant. Technical levels to watch Given that the RSI is nearly oversold and the market is adjusting its previous movements, USDJPY might continue its recent recovery towards a resistance zone from a month ago, around 143.45-60. After that, a downward-sloping resistance line from early August, near 146.60, will challenge buyers before they can take full control. If they succeed, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from July 2023 to 2024, around 149.60, and the 200-SMA level at 151.05 could attract more buying interest. On the other hand, sellers might look for a daily close below a long-term rising support line, around 141.90. They should also watch for the late 2023 low around 140.25 and the 140.00 level, which could provide additional support before aiming for the mid-2023 low of 137.25. What next? The USDJPY pair might see a rebound as the market consolidates before the important US inflation data is released on Thursday. However, the bearish trend will continue unless the price stays below the 200-SMA.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD: Sellers stay optimistic, watching 21-EMA & US dataThe EURUSD pair has lost momentum after briefly recovering from the 21-EMA support level. Traders are now focused on upcoming US job reports, including the Initial Jobless Claims, ADP Employment Change, and ISM Services PMI. This cautious mood is making it hard for the Euro to gain traction. Multiple catalysts lure Euro bears The EURUSD pair has been stuck in a trading range for a week, with the RSI (14) showing no strong trend. However, a bearish chart pattern and bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful. Optimism about strong US data and concerns about an economic slowdown in the Eurozone add to the negative outlook for the Euro. Technical levels to watch EURUSD pair’s repeated bounces of 21-EMA support of 1.1050 highlights the numbers as a tough nut to crack for short-term sellers. Following that, a three-month-old resistance-turned-support near 1.0980 will lure the bears. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0980, a gradual decline toward the rising wedge confirmation’s theoretical target near 1.0700 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, EURUSD buyers need validation from 1.1080 to regain control. Even so, the aforementioned rising wedge’s bottom line surrounding 1.1210 will be a crucial resistance to watch for the bulls. Following that, the pair’s gradual run-up toward the previous yearly high of 1.1275 appears more likely. Looking ahead… A slew of US employment and activity data will decorate Thursday’s economic calendar and direct EURUSD traders. However, the quote’s failure to cheer the US Dollar’s weakness can please sellers should the scheduled statistics favour the Greenback’s run-up by dimming the odds of heavy Fed rate cuts.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Falling wedge teases buyers ahead of UK/US dataThe GBPUSD currency pair is currently at its lowest point in over a week as traders wait for important data releases on Wednesday. This data includes the UK’s S&P Global/CIPS PMIs for August and the US Factory Orders and JOLTS Job Openings for July. The Pound Sterling has recently broken below a key support level comprising a one-month-old ascending trend line, which has now become resistant. Bullish technical formation, bumpy road to south challenge GBPUSD bears Despite the recent decline, the GBPUSD pair is holding up well due to a bullish pattern known as a falling wedge and several support levels. The MACD indicator also shows a decreasing bearish trend, which could help GBP/USD buyers. Additionally, the RSI indicator suggests there isn’t strong market support for the current downtrend. Technical levels to watch While the short-term falling wedge restricts the GBPUSD pair’s immediate moves between 1.3080 and 1.3120, the support-turned-resistance line from early August and a seven-week-long horizontal region act as additional trading filters around 1.3150 and 1.3050-35 respectively. Apart from that, the 50-SMA and 200-SMA could challenge the momentum traders around 1.3170 and 1.2935 in that order. In a case where the GBPUSD pair remains firmer past 1.3170, it will refresh the yearly high while aiming for the falling wedge confirmation’s theoretical target surrounding 1.3300. Alternatively, a downside break of the 200-SMA support of 1.2935 will make the Cable pair vulnerable to slump toward mid-August swing low near 1.2800. Looking forward… In the short term, GBPUSD might continue to trend lower, but the bears are losing momentum. Any disappointment in US data could quickly bring buyers back into the market, especially given the bullish technical indicators.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Bears flex muscles within five-week-old triangleThe USDJPY currency pair has fallen for the first time in five days after hitting a resistance level on a one-month-old chart pattern. This drop reflects a shift to safer investments as traders await important economic data and deal with the return of full trading activity after a long weekend in the US and Canada. Buyers losing ground Along with the change in market sentiment, a few technical indicators suggest the USDJPY might keep falling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving out of the overbought zone, and the MACD is showing less bullish momentum. However, sellers need to see the price drop below 144.20 to gain control. Technical levels to watch The important support level is 144.20. If the price falls below this, it might continue to drop. The 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 146.10 is another key level that limits immediate losses. Additional support levels are 144.00 and the August low of around 143.40. If the price drops further, it could target the seven-month low of 141.70 and the psychological level of 140.00. On the contrary, an upside break of the stated triangle’s top line, currently around 147.30, isn’t an open invitation to the USDJPY buyers as the 200-SMA hurdle of 148.80 acts as an extra upside filter. Also challenging the Yen pair buyers is mid-August swing high near 149.40 and the 150.00 round figure. What next? The USDJPY is likely to continue falling and might hit new lows for the year. However, the sellers need confirmation from upcoming US economic data and a break below the key support level of 144.20.
by MTradingGlobal