Gold portrays bullish triangle but $1,643 is the key hurdleGold braces for the second weekly loss but the bears appear hesitant around the yearly low. On the top of that, a bullish triangle formation and nearly oversold RSI suggest that the metal may witness a bounce. Hence, a convergence of the monthly horizontal resistance and the three-week-old descending trend line, forming part of the bullish triangle, around $1,643, gain major attention. Should the metal buyers manage to cross the resistance confluence, an upswing to the 200-SMA level of $1,678 becomes imminent on the way to the theoretical target surrounding the monthly high near $1,700.
Alternatively, pullback moves need to defy the triangle formation by breaking the $1,620 support. Even so, the yearly bottom of $1,614-15 could test the bears before directing them to the $1,600 threshold. Following that, April 2020 low and August 2019 top, respectively near $1,572 and $1,557, could entertain the sellers. In a case where the gold price remains weak past $1,557 the year 2020 low of $1,451 will be in focus.
Overall, gold sellers are running out of steam but the buyers need a clear break of $1,643 for even a small rebound.
Fed
EURUSD signals further downside, 0.9670 in focusAfter staying off the bear’s radar during the first two days of the week, EURUSD returned to the red zone as it broke the weekly support line. The trend line breakdown joins downbeat oscillators to keep sellers hopeful of meeting an upward-sloping trend line support from September 28, around 0.9670. The quote’s further downside, however, will be challenged by the monthly low of 0.9631, a break of which could quickly drag prices towards the multi-year low marked in the last month around 0.9535.
Alternatively, the support-turned-resistance around 0.9840 guards the immediate recovery moves. However, a convergence of 200-SMA and a five-week-old descending resistance line, close to 0.9855, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bulls. It should be noted, though, that the pair’s successful break of 0.9855 will open the doors for the run-up toward challenging the monthly peak surrounding the parity mark that seems the last defense of the bears.
Overall, EURUSD has already welcomed the bears but the party appears a small one unless breaking 0.9670.
AUDUSD braces for recovery near YTD low, 0.6365 is crucialAUDUSD rebounds inside a three-week-old falling wedge bullish chart formation and it becomes more important for the short-term buyer’s return as the quote is around the 2.5-year low. It should, however, be noted that only an upside break of 0.6290 hurdle won’t be enough to convince bulls as a horizontal area surrounding 0.6345-65 appears a tough nut to crack for them before retaking control. Also asking as the upside filter is another horizontal zone from September 26, close to 0.6540, as well as the 200-SMA near 0.6580.
Meanwhile, pullback moves remain elusive beyond the stated wedge’s support, near 0.6180 by the press time, breaking which the yearly low near 0.6170 could act as the validation point for the AUDUSD pair’s further weakness. During the pair’s weakness past 0.6170, the 0.6000 psychological magnet will be on the bear’s radar ahead of April 2020 low near 0.5980.
Overall, AUDUSD bears are running out of steam and can trigger a short-term rebound. It’s worth noting, however, that the bulls have a long and bumpy way to ride.
USDJPY bulls need to cross 147.70 to stay on the tableUSDJPY poked the year 1998 high on Thursday while piercing a weekly resistance line, staying near the immediate resistance line of late. That said, the RSI is overbought as the pair struggles with the 24-year high near 147.70, which in turn suggests hardships for the further upside move. If the quote crosses the 147.70 hurdle, its run-up towards an upward-sloping trend line from late April, near 149.00, and the 150.00 psychological magnet will become imminent. It’s worth noting, however, that the buyer’s dominance past 150.00 won’t hesitate to challenge the late 1990 peak surrounding 151.65.
Meanwhile, sellers could take entries if the USDJPY pair breaks a 2.5-month-old support line, currently around 144.60. Following that, a south-run to late September low near 140.35 and then to the 140.00 round figure can’t be ruled out. However, July’s top near 139.40 could challenge the sellers afterward, failing to do so can draw a gradual south-run towards August month’s bottom close to 130.40.
Overall, USDJPY is near the key resistances as the overbought RSI suggests that the bulls are running out of steam. Hence, a pullback is well-expected but the change of trend is off the table unless the quote breaks 144.60.
Gold’s rebound remains unconvincing below $1,692A two-month-old previous resistance line defends gold buyers as they seek clarity ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Also keeping the metal bulls hopeful is the 50-SMA’s piercing of the 200-SMA from below, known as the bull cross or golden cross. It’s worth noting, however, that the recovery remains elusive unless the bullion stays successfully beyond the aforementioned SMA convergence near $1,690-92. Following that, a run-up toward the monthly high near $1,730 appears imminent. Even so, the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the quote’s August-September downside, respectively near $1,735 and $1,767, will be in the spotlight.
Alternatively, a downside break of the $1660 support confluence, including the resistance-turned-support line and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, could convince gold sellers. In that case, the $1,640 and the yearly low of $1,614 might entertain the bears on their way to the $1,600 threshold. If the metal prices remain weak past $1,600, the April 2020 low near $1,570 should become the yearly bottom.
Overall, gold is teasing the buyers but confirmation is necessary from both, the US inflation data and technical details.
EURUSD braces for fresh yearly low ahead of key events/dataEURUSD bears take a rest around the two-week-old horizontal support area while waiting for this week’s key catalysts, namely FOMC Meeting Minutes and US CPI. That said, sluggish RSI and bearish MACD signals join the quote’s sustained trading below the 50-SMA to keep sellers hopeful. However, a clear downside break of the 0.9665-50 region appears necessary for the fresh leg down. Following that, the latest multi-year low, marked in September around 0.9535, will gain the attention ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of August-October moves, close to 0.9485. In a case where the pair remains weak past 0.9485, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the September 2001 high near 0.9330 can’t be ruled out.
Alternatively, recovery moves need to cross the 50-SMA level of 0.9800 for the start. Following that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the August-September downside and the monthly high, respectively around 0.9950 and the 1.0000 psychological magnet should lure the EURUSD buyers. If the quote remains firmer past 1.0000, a two-month-old downward sloping resistance line, around 1.0025 by the press time appears the last defense of the bears.
To sum up, EURUSD appears bearish ahead of this week’s important data/events.
EURUSD rebound is at test near 0.9830 resistanceEURUSD defends the first weekly gain in three around the 20-year low during early Monday. The recovery also gains support from the RSI and the MACD. However, an downward sloping resistance line from September 12, around 0.9830 by the press time, challenges the immediate upside moves. In a case where the quote rises past 0.9830, the 200-SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s August-September downturn, respectively near 0.9950 and 1.0050, could challenge the bulls. It’s worth noting that a two-month-old downward sloping trend line around 1.0090, quickly followed by the 1.0100 threshold, appears the defense of the pair sellers.
Alternatively, the 50-SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, close to 0.9740 and 0.9730 in that order, could test the EURUSD pair’s pullback. Following that, the 0.9640 and the 0.9580 levels might poke the bears before giving them control. In that case, the latest trough surrounding 0.9540 should act as a buffer before highlighting the September 2001 peak near 0.9330.
Overall, the EURUSD rebound is likely to extend for a while as traders await the key data from the US. However, the bearish trend isn’t challenged yet.
Gold consolidates monthly losses inside bearish channelGold braces for the first weekly gain in three while bouncing off a two-year low inside a one-month-old bearish channel. That said, the metal’s latest recovery approaches a fortnight-old hurdle surrounding $1665. Any further upside, however, will be challenged by the stated channel’s upper limit, close to $1,680. If the buyers manage to defy the bearish chart pattern, the 200-SMA level surrounding $1,707 could act as the last defense of the bears before activating the run-up to refresh the monthly top, currently around $1,734.
Alternatively, gold’s pullback may aim for the latest swing low surrounding $1,641 before directing the bears towards the yearly bottom of $1,614. In a case where the bullion sellers keep controls past $1,614, the aforementioned channel’s bottom at around $1,607 and the $1,600 should probe the further downside. It should be noted that the quote’s weakness past $1,600 won’t hesitate to aim for the tops marked during August and September 2019, around $1555-57.
Overall, gold holds onto the bearish trajectory but a short-term rebound can’t be ruled out.
USDJPY bulls are bracing for 147.00USDJPY has been navigating inside the 300-pip trading range at a 24-year high in the last three weeks. Despite the yen pair’s latest inaction, the lower low on prices joins the lower bottom on the RSI (14), which in turn joins firmer MACD to keep the buyers hopeful. However, a clear upside break of 144.75, comprising the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s late March to early August moves, becomes necessary to poke a five-month-old ascending trend line resistance near 147.00. During the rise, the latest swing top around 146.00 could probe the buyers while a successful rise beyond the 147.00 hurdle might flash the 150.00 threshold on the chart.
Alternatively, the 21-DMA support around 142.60 may act as an immediate halt during the USDJPY pair’s pullback before highlighting the stated range’s bottom, including the 61.8% FE level near 141.60. In a case where the pair drops below 141.60, the 140.00 round figure and July’s high near 139.40 could lure the bears. It should be noted that the sustained downtrend past 139.40 could drag prices towards the 100-DMA support of 135.70.
Overall, USDJPY remains on the buyer’s radar but needs a trigger to activate the next leg to the north.
GBPUSD stays on bear’s radar unless crossing 1.1280GBPUSD holds onto the rebound from an all-time low, marked the previous day, amid oversold RSI conditions. The recovery also crossed the previous record bottom printed in 1985. However, the 1.1000 round figure and a downside sloping support-turned-resistance line from May, around 1.1280 by the press time, restricts the Cable pair’s immediate rebound. Also acting as an upside filter is the year 2020 bottom surrounding 1.1420.
Alternatively, the GBPUSD pair’s fresh weakness needs acceptance from Monday’s opening levels of around 1.0800, as well as the year 1985 bottom close to 1.0520. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0520, the 1.0500 threshold and the latest trough surrounding 1.0340 could lure the sellers. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s weakness past 1.0340 could make it vulnerable to testing the 1.0000 psychological magnet.
Overall, GBPUSD is likely to witness a corrective bounce but the buyers are far from retaking control.
EURUSD eyes further downside below parityAlthough June 1989’s low test EUR/USD bears, a clear downside break of the 2.5-month-old support line, now resistance around 0.9850, keeps sellers hopeful at the lowest levels in 20 years. Even so, the major currency pair stays inside a bearish channel formation established on May 12 and has its support line located around 0.9490 by the press time. Additionally, the January 2001 low of around 0.9600 could join the oversold RSI conditions to challenge the short-term downside.
Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive until the quote stays successfully beyond the 10-week-old support-turned-resistance line around 0.9850. Following that, the 0.9950 and the 1.000 parity level could entertain short-term buyers. However, a convergence of the 50-DMA and upper line of the stated channel, close to 1.0080, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bulls before they can dream of retaking control.
It’s worth noting that the Italian elections and multiple speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde, as well as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, make it an interesting pair to watch on Friday.
Bearish megaphone keeps gold sellers hopeful on Fed dayGold holds lower ground near the yearly bottom as the market braces for the Fed’s rate hike. In doing so, the yellow metal remains inside a six-week-old trend-widening pattern. That said, the quote is likely to stay bearish unless crossing the $1,715 hurdle. Ahead of that, the two-month-long horizontal resistance area surrounding $1,696 and the $1,700 threshold could test the recovery moves. In a case where the metal prices rally beyond the $1,715 mark, the monthly high surrounding $1,735 could act as the last defense for the sellers.
On the contrary, the lower line of the stated trend-widening formation called megaphone, around $1,642 by the press time, restricts the short-term downside of gold prices. Also acting as immediate support is the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April-August moves, near $1,619. It’s worth noting, however, that the metal’s weakness past $1,619 will make it vulnerable to testing April 2020 low near $1,572.
Overall, gold is likely to remain bearish even if the Fed’s disappointment may trigger intermediate bounce.
EURUSD bears await Fed’s decision to refresh yearly lowEURUSD gyrates between the 50-DMA and a two-month-old support line surrounding the yearly bottom flashed last week. The steady RSI and bearish MACD signals, however, keep the sellers hopeful as markets await the Fed. That said, a downside break of the aforementioned support line, around 0.9850 by the press time may avail an intermediate halt near the 0.9800 threshold before directing the quote towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late June to early August moves, near 0.9730. It’s worth noting that the pair’s downside past 0.9730 will make it vulnerable to testing the early 2001 top near 0.9600.
Alternatively, recovery moves beyond the 50-DMA hurdle, around 1.0100, needs validation from the monthly high near 1.0200 to convince the EURUSD buyers. Following that, a run-up towards the previous monthly high surrounding 1.0370 can’t be ruled out. In a case where the currency pair rises past 1.0370, its run-up towards the late June swing high of 1.0615 can’t be ruled out.
Overall, EURUSD remains on the bear’s radar but awaits the FOMC to trigger the fresh south-run.
NZDUSD hovers above 0.5890 key support as the Fed week beginsNZDUSD dropped to the lowest level since May 2020 before bouncing off 0.5940 on Friday. The recovery, however, remains unattractive as the Kiwi pair stays inside a six-week-old bearish channel. Even so, the oversold RSI conditions may allow short-term buyers to aim for 0.6100-10 resistance confluence, including the 21-DMA and the stated channel’s upper line. It’s worth noting that multiple lows marked during late July and early August could act as extra upside filters around 0.6220, a break of which could quickly propel the prices towards the previous monthly top near 0.6470.
Alternatively, a convergence of the aforementioned channel’s bottom and a downward sloping support line from May 12 constitute the 0.5890 level as a crucial downside support for the NZDUSD bears to watch during the pair’s further declines. Also acting as an extra check for sellers is the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the pair’s April-August moves, near 0.5870. If at all the Kiwi pair breaks the 0.5870 support, the odds of its south-run towards the 78.6% FE level surrounding the 0.5700 threshold can’t be ruled out.
Overall, NZDUSD remains in a bearish trend ahead of the key FOMC meeting, as well as today’s speech from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr.
Gold sellers brace for fresh yearly low, $1,650 in the spotlightGold renewed the yearly bottom on breaking the fortnight-old support line, now resistance around $1,700, the previous day. The following consolidation, however, remains doubtful even as the oversold RSI challenges intraday sellers. That said, the precious metal drops towards the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the August 17 to September 12 moves, near $1,662. Though, a three-week-long downward sloping support line from late August, near $1,650, could trigger the quote’s rebound, if not then the 100% FE level surrounding $1,641 and the $1,600 threshold will be in focus.
Alternatively, recovery moves need to stabilize beyond the $1,700 to convince short-term gold buyers. Following that, the weekly high of around $1,735 and the 200-SMA near $1,746 could be considered as the final defenses for the bears. In a case where the bullion prices cross the $1,746 hurdle, a run-up towards the late August swing high around $1,765 and then to the $1,800 threshold can’t be ruled. However, the previous monthly top surrounding $1,808 might allow the XAUUSD bull a break afterward.
To sum up, gold is likely to remain bearish ahead of the next week’s Fed meeting even if the downside appears limited.
EURUSD bulls struggle to retake control ahead of US inflationOn Monday, EURUSD rose past 200-SMA for the first time in a month and formed a bullish channel. However, the following pullback from 1.0197 flirts with the stated channel’s lower line near 1.0130. Following that, the 1.0100 threshold comprising the 200-SMA, could test the pair bears ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August. Hence, a recovery towards 1.0200 can’t be ruled out. However, the aforementioned channel’s top and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of August-September downside, respectively around 1.0225 and 1.0265, could challenge the pair’s further advances, if not, then a run-up towards the previous monthly peak surrounding 1.0370 could appear on the chart.
Meanwhile, a downside break of the 1.0100 key SMA level could quickly drag EURUSD prices towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the stated moves, close to 1.0055. Following that, the 1.0000 parity level and the 0.9910 may entertain the bears before redirecting them to the yearly low marked in the last week around 0.9860.
Overall, EURUSD regains its place on the buyer’s radar but the uptrend remains doubtful as strong US inflation may recall the US dollar bulls.
USDJPY stays on the way to 150.00Despite the latest pullback from a 24-year high, the USDJPY remains inside a five-month-old megaphone formation suggesting a further widening of the uptrend. Even so, the overbought RSI (14) suggests a pullback of the yen pair, which in turn highlights a two-month-old horizontal support area surrounding 134.00-134.40. Following that, the 50-DMA and 100-DMA could test the pair sellers around 136.80 and 134.00 respectively. It’s worth noting that the stated megaphone’s lower line, near 132.40, appears the last defense for the pair buyers.
Meanwhile, recovery moves may initially aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s late March to early August moves, near 144.75, before challenging the megaphone’s top, close to 145.75. In a case where USDJPY bulls keep reins, the tops marked during the June and August months of 1998, close to 146.80 and 147.70 in that order, could probe the upside momentum towards the 150.00 psychological magnet.
Overall, a shift in the market sentiment isn’t a trend change and hence the bulls can keep control.
GBPUSD eyes 1.1730 on bullish RSI divergence, channel breakoutGBPUSD crosses the monthly bearish channel, also the 50-SMA hurdle, after briefly declining to the lowest levels since 1985. The corrective bounce takes support from the bullish RSI divergence where the lower low on the prices contrasts with the higher low of the RSI (14), which in turn suggests brighter chances of the pair’s recovery. As a result, the buyers are on the way to the three-week-old horizontal resistance area near 1.1730-40. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 1.1740, the 1.1900 and the 1.2000 thresholds could please the bulls afterward.
Meanwhile, the stated channel’s upper line acts as the immediate support for the pair, around 1.1500. Following that, the weekly descending trend line surrounding 1.1400 seems to restrict short-term GBPUSD downside ahead of the lower line of the aforementioned bearish channel, close to 1.1340 at the latest. It’s worth noting, that the pair’s south-run past 1.1340 could keep grinding the quote slowly towards the 1.1000 psychological magnet. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 1.1000, the low marked in the year 1985 near 1.0520 will regain the market’s attention.
To sum up, GBPUSD seems to have seen enough of the downside and the bull’s turn is just around the corner. However, the fundamentals are the key and should be read carefully for clear directions.
EURUSD bears running out of steam ahead of ECBEURUSD fades bounce off the lowest levels in almost two decades as traders await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) second rate hike. The major currency pair portrays a four-month-old bearish channel and justifies the downbeat MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful irrespective of the widely-expected 75 bps hike. However, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of May-August moves, near 0.9850, joins the nearly oversold RSI to probe the quote’s further downside. Even if the bears keep reins past 0.9850, backed by ECB’s disappointment, the pair prices could drop to the 78.6% FE level surrounding 0.9715. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s failure to bounce off 0.9715 could make it vulnerable to slumping towards the stated channel’s support line, close to the 0.9600 threshold.
Meanwhile, ECB’s positive surprise could offer immediate strength to the EURUSD and can challenge the short-term hurdle, namely the 20-day EMA level near the 1.0000 psychological magnet. However, the pair’s further advances need validation from late July’s low around 1.0100. Even so, the bulls are likely to remain off the table unless witnessing a clear upside break of the aforementioned channel’s resistance line, at 1.0170 by the press time.
Overall, EURUSD is likely to remain on the bear’s table irrespective of the ECB’s attempt to defend the regional currency. That said, the odds of witnessing intermediate bounces can’t be ruled out.
Fortnight-old bearish channel keeps gold sellers hopefulGold extends pullback from 50-SMA and the upper line of the 12-day-long descending trend channel as sellers flirt with the $1,695. That said, the downward sloping RSI, not oversold, adds strength to the bearish bias targeting the latest swing low, around $1,688. However, the yearly low, marked in July at around $1,680, will precede the stated channel’s bottom, close to $1,670, to challenge the sellers afterward.
Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive until the gold price remains below the $1,723-25 resistance confluence including the 50-SMA and the channel’s top. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July-August upside, near $1,730, could probe the XAUUSD bulls before giving them control. In that case, the tops marked during August 25 and 10, respectively near $1,765 and $1,807, will be the focus. Also acting as the upside barrier is the $1,800 threshold.
Gold eyes fresh yearly low, $1,660 in focusGold flirts with the $1,700 threshold as it approaches the yearly bottom ahead of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The yellow metal’s latest fall justifies bearish MACD signals. However, the RSI nears the oversold territory, which in turn suggests limited downside room. Hence, even if the quote breaks the yearly low of $1,680, the further declines could be smaller. This highlights the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) level from late April to early August, near $1,660. Even if the quote drops below the $1,660 support, a late March 2020 peak near $1,644 could act as an additional downside filter before dragging the bullion towards the $1,600 threshold.
Alternatively, multiple swings of July portray the $1,700 as an immediate resistance ahead of the monthly downward sloping trend line, previous support near $1,710. Following that, the late August swing low near $1,727 and the 20-DMA surrounding $1,760 could gain the market’s attention. It’s worth noting that a daily closing beyond $1,760 will enable the bulls to aim for the previous monthly peak of $1,808.
Overall, gold bears are likely to keep reins but the downside room is limited, which in turn suggests the brighter scope of recoveries in case the data disappoints.
EURUSD rebound needs validation ahead of Eurozone inflationHaving refreshed the multi-year low the previous week, EURUSD rose during the last two days. That said, the pair traders await flash readings of Eurozone inflation data for August on Wednesday for fresh impulse as they poke a two-week-old resistance line, around 1.0050 by the press time. If the data manages to propel the prices to cross an immediate hurdle, the 100-EMA level surrounding 1.0075 and the 1.0100 threshold will act as the last defenses for the sellers. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside past 1.0100 enables buyers to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of August 10-23 downside, near 1.090, wherein the mid-August swing low of 1.0121 may offer an intermediate halt.
On the flip side, the 0.9980 and 0.9950 levels can offer nearby support to the EURUSD pair during its fresh declines. Following that, the 19-year low marked in the last week at around 0.9900 should gain the market’s attention. Also acting as the downside filter is the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of August 12-26 moves, near 0.9860.
Elsewhere, steady RSI and the sluggish MACD signal that the bears are running out of steam. However, it all depends upon the Consumer Price Index (CPI), recently known as the Harmonized Index of Consumer Price Index (HICP).
AUDUSD prepares for more downside below 0.6900AUDUSD reversed before the 100-DMA hurdle on Friday. The bears, however, jostle with the five-week-old horizontal support area surrounding 0.6860-50 afterward, a break of which could quickly drag the quote towards May’s low near 0.6830. It’s worth noting that the pair’s downside past 0.6830 could have an intermediate halt around the 0.6800 round figure before directing the bears toward the 0.6680-70 support zone comprising the lows marked during September 2019 and July 2022.
Alternatively, recovery moves may initially poke the 0.7000 psychological magnet before attacking the 100-DMA resistance, around 0.7030 by the press time. Even if the quote rises past 0.7030, the 200-DMA level near 0.7130 and the monthly high of 0.7136 will be crucial for the AUDUSD bulls to tackle to retake control. Following that, an upward trajectory towards June’s peak, close to 0.7285, can’t be ruled out.
Overall, AUDUSD bears are in the driver’s seat and are riding towards the yearly low.






















