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NZDUSD rebound appears unconvincing below 0.6250NZDUSD bounces off a five-week low as it extends the corrective pullback from a weekly falling channel’s support line. In doing so, the Kiwi pair also traces the oversold RSI while approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of July-August moves, around 0.6215. The quote’s further upside, however, remains doubtful as the 200-SMA and upper line of the stated channel, close to 0.6250, will challenge the bulls afterward. Should the pair rise past 0.6250, the 0.6300 round figure may act as an intermediate halt during the run-up towards the early August swing high, near 0.6350-55. Alternatively, pullback moves may revisit the support line of the aforementioned channel and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, around 0.6150, will be a crucial support. In a case where the NZDUSD bears conquer 0.6150 support, the southward trajectory towards the yearly low marked in July, near 0.6060, followed by the 0.6000 psychological magnet, can’t be ruled out. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to witness further recovery but the upside momentum has limited room to the north.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bears keep reins with eyes on 0.6800AUDUSD broke a one-month-old bullish channel after witnessing a downbeat Aussie Wage Price Index. The south-run also gained support from the softer jobs report for July. Even so, a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August upside, near 0.6900, restricts the immediate downside of the pair. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) is near the oversold territory and suggests limited declines before the bounce. Should the quote breaks the 0.6900 round figure, the monthly bottom surrounding 0.6870 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.6850 could entertain the bears before directing them to the mid-July swing high close to 0.6800. Meanwhile, corrective pullback needs to cross the stated channel’s support line, around 0.6970 by the press time, to convince the buyers. Following that, the weekly resistance line near the 0.7000 threshold could try stopping the upside moves. In a case where AUDUSD bulls cross the 0.7000 hurdle, the month-start peak around 0.7050 might become the last defense of bears before directing the prices towards the monthly high of 0.7136. Overall, AUDUSD has signaled a bearish trajectory after the downbeat employment numbers and is ready to reverse the bounce off the yearly low marked during July.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bears jostle with key EMAs ahead of FOMC MinutesGold consolidates the previous four-week uptrend by retreating from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July move from Monday itself. However, a convergence of the 100 and 200 EMAs, around $1,775, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears waiting for the Fed Minutes. Also acting as a downside filter is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level close to $1,755. In a case where the XAUUSD remains weak past $1,755, the odds of its fall towards the previous resistance line from early June, around $1,705, can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, gold’s recovery needs to cross the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at around $1,804 to convince buyers. Even so, a two-week-old upward sloping resistance line, close to $1,823, could test the upside momentum. It’s worth observing that the metal’s sustained run-up beyond $1,823 enables it to aim for the mid-June swing high surrounding $1,858.00. Overall, gold bears appear to keep reins but a clear downside break of $1,775 becomes necessary, not to forget the need for hawkish Minutes.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD braces for 100-pip fall on breaking 1.0200 support EURUSD began the key week by breaking an important support confluence surrounding 1.0200, which includes 100-SMA, 200-SMA and a one-month-old ascending trend line. The bearish bias also takes clues from the downbeat MACD and RSI conditions, confirming further south-run of the major currency pair. That said, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the late June to July downturn, around 1.0100, lures the pair sellers. However, the 1.0000 parity mark appears a tough nut to crack for the bears, which if conquered could make the prices vulnerable to refresh yearly low, currently around 0.9950. On the flip side, sustained trading beyond the 1.0200 support-turned-resistance needs validation from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0285 to convince the EURUSD buyers. Even so, a two-month-old horizontal resistance area around 1.0360-65, also comprising the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, will be crucial for the bulls to watch. In a case where the stays beyond 1.0365, the odds of its run-up towards the late June swing high around 1.0490 can’t be ruled out. Overall, EURUSD is likely to decline further as traders await important fundamental catalysts from the US and Eurozone.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD needs to cross 1.0360 hurdle to convince buyersUS inflation allowed EURUSD to extend the three-day uptrend towards refreshing the monthly peak, by also piercing a downward sloping resistance line from late March. However, a horizontal area comprising the 50-DMA and lows marked during May and June, around 1.0345-60, appeared a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Hence, a daily closing beyond 1.0360 becomes necessary for the pair to remain firmer. Following that, a run-up towards the 100-DMA and the late June swing high, respectively near 1.0540 and 1.0620, seems imminent. Alternatively, pullback moves remain unimpressive beyond late July’s peak surrounding 1.0275-80. Also acting as a downside filter is an ascending support line from July 14, close to 1.0180. In a case where EURUSD remains bearish past 1.0180, the south-run could extend towards 1.0100 and the 1.0000 parity level before challenging the yearly low near 0.9950. That said, EURUSD buyers have higher odds of return as the technical breakout gains support from the MACD and RSI, not to forget the softer US CPI. However, the confirmation is pending and much needed.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers brace for $1,840 ahead of US CPIGold remains firmer around one-month high, staying successfully above the $1,787-88 confluence comprising the 50-DMA and a five-month-old descending trend line. The same joined firmer RSI and bullish MACD signals to keep buyers hopeful of further upside. However, the $1,800 threshold could challenge the upside momentum before directing the bulls towards the convergence of the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA near $1,840. Following that, a north-run towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-July downturn, near $1,877, can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, pullback moves remain elusive until the quote stays beyond $1,787, a break of which could direct the gold prices towards the previous weekly low near $1,754. In a case where gold bears keep reins past $1,754, the odds of witnessing a south-run towards $1,740 and $1,710 can’t be ruled out. If at all the bullion fails to improve from $1,710, the $1,700 round figure could act as the last defense of gold buyers ahead of highlighting the yearly low of $1,680 to the traders. Overall, gold signaled further upside ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July. However, the outcome of the inflation report is awaited for clear directions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD braces for fresh 2022 low with eyes on 0.6195 breakAlthough 20-DMA triggered the NZDUSD pair’s latest rebound, the first weekly loss in three joined RSI retreat to keep bears hopeful. The downside momentum, however, needs validation from the three-month-old horizontal support area around 0. 6210-0.6195, other than the 20-DMA level of 0.6225, to push back the buyers. Following that, the previous monthly low, also the yearly bottom surrounding 0.6060, will be in focus. Should the quote remains bearish past 0.6060, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late April to early August moves, close to 0.5990, may lure the sellers. Meanwhile, recovery moves remain unimpressive below a downward sloping resistance line from early June, around 0.6335 by the press time. Even so, the monthly peak surrounding 0.6355 and the mid-June swing high of 0.6395 could challenge the NZDUSD buyers. It’s worth noting, however, that the Kiwi pair’s run-up beyond 0.6395 may wait for a successful run-up above the 0.6400 round figure before giving the control to bulls targeting June’s high near 0.6575. Overall, NZDUSD is on the bear’s radar as traders await key inflation data from New Zealand and the US.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD portrays bearish set-up ahead of US NFPBe it an ascending triangle or a pullback from 200-SMA, EURUSD bears flex muscles as markets await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for July. That said, the bearish triangle confirmation looms on the clear downside break of 1.0160, which in turn could direct the pair towards the yearly low near 0.9950. However, the 1.0090 and the 1.0000 parity level could offer intermediate halts during the fall. In a case where the pair sellers dominate below the 0.9950 trough level, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late June-July moves, near 0.9870 might join the likely oversold RSI conditions to hinder further downside. On the contrary, the 200-SMA and upper line of the monthly triangle offer a tough nut to crack for EURUSD buyers at around 1.0280. Following that, a run-up towards a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since mid-June, near 1.0358-65, could challenge the upside momentum. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s successful rise beyond 1.0365 could enable the bulls to aim for June’s high of 1.0588. Overall, EURUSD stays inside a bearish set-up with an absence of oversold RSI and bearish MACD signals amplifying the odds of the quote’s downside. However, it all depends upon how well the US employment data for July arrives. A negative surprise won’t hesitate to pamper bulls.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bears battle with key supportsUSDJPY renews its six-week low while extending the downside break of a five-month-old ascending trend line, as well as the 50-DMA. However, the pair’s further declines appear less convincing as the nearly oversold RSI and proximity to the horizontal support zone from late April, around 131.50-25 challenge the bears. Even if the quote drops below 131.25, a convergence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of March-July upside and the 100-DMA, around 130.00, could act as an additional filter to the south. It’s worth noting that the pair’s sustained south-run below 130.00 could make it vulnerable to drop towards the 50% Fibo. level surrounding 127.00. Meanwhile, recovery moves might initially aim for the 50-DMA hurdle close to 134.35. Following that, the previous support line from March, around 135.80, could challenge the USDJPY buyers. In a case where the bulls keep reins past 135.80, the 137.00 mark appears the intermediate halt before challenging the recent multi-month high near 139.40 and the 140.00 psychological magnet. Overall, USDJPY bears seem to run out of steam as they’re close to important support levels.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY breaks key support before Fed’s preferred inflation gaugeUSDJPY broke a five-week-old support line, as well as a horizontal area around 134.25 that comprises the levels marked since June 17, to refresh the monthly low near 133.75. It’s worth noting, however, that oversold RSI conditions challenge the bears ahead of the US PCE Price Index for July, the Fed’s preferred inflation data. However, the corrective pullback needs validation from the immediate horizontal support-turned-resistance around 134.20, as well as the ascending trend line from June 23, near 135.75, to recall the buyers. Even so, the 200-SMA near 136.20 will test the upside momentum. On the contrary, the pair’s further downside aims at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July upside, around 133.15. Following that, the 131.50-25 area comprising mid-June lows and highs marked in April, as well as in May, will be a tough nut to crack for the pair bears. It’s worth noting that the pair’s sustained declines past 131.25 could make it vulnerable to revisiting May’s low around 126.35. Overall, USDJPY recently broke the crucial support but the odds favoring further downside are fewer.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers aim for $1,755 ahead of US GDPGold defends the post-Fed rally around a two-week high, also keeping the upside break of the 100-SMA level of $1,725 and the previous resistance line, now support around $1,721. The upside momentum also takes clues from the bullish MACD and RSI signals, not to forget Fed-inspired USD weakness to direct the buyers towards July 08 high near $1,753. Following that, $1,773 and $1,783 may entertain the bulls before directing them to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June 17 to July 21 downturn, near $1,820. Alternatively, pullback moves may initial aim for the 100-SMA level near $1,725 before challenging the resistance-turned-support of $1,721. However, a fortnight-old horizontal support zone, near $1,699-94, appears a tough nut to crack for metal sellers. Given the bearish MACD signals and the downbeat RSI, not to forget the Fed-led firmer USD, the precious metal is likely to decline further. That said, the yearly low of around $1,680 could offer an intermediate halt during the south run targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of $1,655.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears brace for 0.9870 with eyes on FedEURUSD remains pressured around a one-week low as traders prepared for the Fed’s verdict, likely a 0.75% rate hike and Powell’s aggression. That said, the pair’s clear downside break of the 50-SMA directs the quote toward the multi-year low marked earlier in the month around 0.9950. Given the RSI approaches the oversold territory, the pair’s declines past 0.9950 appears less expected. However, the bear’s rejection to step back from 0.9950 could open the doors for the further south-run towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June 27 to July 21 moves, around 0.9870. Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive below the 50-SMA level surrounding 1.0165. Following that the previous weekly top around 1.0275 could gain the EURUSD buyers’ attention. However, a convergence of the 200-SMA and downward sloping resistance line from early June, close to 1.0340, should challenge the bulls. Also acting as the key upside hurdle is the six-week-old horizontal area near 1.0360-65. Overall, EURUSD is likely to decline further towards refreshing the yearly bottom. However, it all depends upon the Fed’s actions. Hence, the trader’s discretion is required.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD approaches key resistance inside 250-pip trading rangeUSDCAD bounced off its monthly low on Friday, approaching a convergence of the 100 and 50-SMA around 1.2960-65 at the latest. The recovery moves also gain support from the upbeat RSI, not oversold, as well as recently improving MACD signals. That said, the Loonie pair’s upside past 1.2965 needs validation from the 1.3000 psychological magnet before approaching the 1.3080-85 resistance area. In a case where the prices rally beyond 1.3085, the monthly top of 1.3223 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, pullback moves could aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of June-July upside, around 1.2870 before challenging the stated trading range’s lower end, around 1.2820. It’s worth noting that a clear downside below 1.2820 could become detrimental for the USDCAD bulls if backed by a clear break of the 1.2800 round figure. In that case, the bears could aim for June’s low near 1.2520. Overall, USDCAD pares recent losses inside a five-week-old trading range.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bears need validation from $1,690 to keep reinsGold braces for the fifth consecutive weekly fall at the yearly low. However, oversold RSI challenges the bears as they approach the $1,690 support confluence, comprising 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-August 2020 upside and an ascending trend line from May 2020. If the precious metal posts the weekly close below $1,690, it becomes vulnerable to testing the 200-week moving average (WMA) near $1,650. It’s worth noting that the $1,650 level is the last defense for the bullion buyers and a break of which will give rein to sellers. Alternatively, the corrective pullback may aim for September 2021 low surrounding $1,721 before eying the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,765. In a case where gold prices manage to stay beyond $1,765, the $1,800 threshold and the previous support line from early 2020, around $1,865, will regain the market’s attention. Overall, the gold price is about the reach the bear’s home but multiple hurdles could trigger the corrective pullback.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD widened doors for bears ahead of FOMC MinutesEURUSD dropped to the lowest levels since late 2020 on breaking the two-month-old horizontal support area near 1.0360-50, before the latest dribbling around 20-year low. The downside also conquered the 61.8% FE of March-May moves while extending the south-run inside a four-month-long bearish channel. With this, the sellers keep reins ahead of the Fed Minutes and the US ISM Services PMI for June, both of which are likely to exert downside pressure on the quote. Hence, the major currency pair is likely to extend the fall toward testing the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level near 1.0140. In a case where the oversold RSI fails to trigger a rebound around 1.0140, the odds of witnessing the 1.0000 psychological magnet back to the chart can’t be ruled out. The 1.0000 figures also coincide with the aforementioned channel’s support line. Meanwhile, corrective pullback needs to stay beyond 1.0360 support-turned-resistance to gain the market’s confidence. Even so, the 1.0480 and upper line of the stated channel, close to 1.0540, will be crucial hurdles for the EURUSD bulls to cross before taking back control. During the quote’s run-up beyond 1.0540, late June’s swing high near 1.0615 and the previous monthly top surrounding 1.0785 could gain the market’s attention. To sum up, EURUSD stays on the bear’s radar ahead of important data/events. Even if the scheduled catalysts disappoint sellers, the recovery moves are likely to have a bumpy road ahead.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCHF rebounds from key support ahead of Swiss inflationUSDCHF snapped a two-week downtrend while bouncing off 100-DMA and a horizontal area from April 20. The corrective pullback, however, failed to provide a daily closing beyond multiple hurdles surrounding 0.9620. That said, the MACD and the RSI (14) also hint at the pair’s weakness ahead of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Switzerland. It’s worth noting that sellers could witness a pullback on firmer readings but the aforementioned horizontal support and the 100-DMA, respectively near 0.9540 and 0.9520, will be crucial for bearish confirmation. Should the quote drop below 0.9520, the odds of witnessing a slump towards March’s high, also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January-May upside, near 0.9460, can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, downbeat Swiss data may extend the latest recovery towards breaking the 0.9620 resistance, a break of which could direct the run-up to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9700. During the USDCHF advances past 0.9700, the 0.9715-20 area may act as a validation point for the north-run targeting the lows marked during early May and June, close to 0.9860. Overall, USDCHF remains on the bear’s radar unless crossing 0.9620 but the further downside needs validation from 0.9520.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD opened the door for sellers ahead of ECB ForumNot only a sustained trading below the 200-EMA but a clear downside break of the short-term ascending triangle also keeps EURUSD bears hopeful as traders await major central bankers’ debate at the ECB Forum. That said, 1.0460 appears the immediate support for the pair sellers to aim for ahead of looking at the yearly low surrounding 1.0350. During the fall, the 1.0400 round figure may offer an intermediate halt. Meanwhile, a fortnight-old triangle’s support line, now resistance around 1.0560, restricts the short-term rebound of the EURUSD pair. Following that, the 200-EMA surrounding 1.0600 and the triangle’s upper line near 1.0620 could challenge the buyers before giving them control. Should the quote manage to remain firm past 1.0620, the upside momentum could then target the 1.0700 psychological magnet before the monthly peak of 1.0773. Overall, EURUSD has already flashed bearish signals ahead of the week’s key event, which in turn makes it comfortable for sellers. However, the recession may probe policymakers from the ECB, BOE and the Fed, making it important to be cautious before taking big positions ahead of the event.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY is ready to refresh multi-year highUSDJPY sustains upside break of a weekly resistance line, now support around 134.85, as bulls brace for the fresh multi-year high, currently around 136.70. In doing so, the yen pair could aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of May 24 to June 16 moves, near 137.20. However, a convergence of the 78.6% FE and the upper line of the monthly bullish channel, near 138.80 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 138.80, the odds of witnessing the 140.00 threshold on the chart can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, pullback moves may retest the resistance-turned-support near 134.90, a break of which could direct USDJPY prices towards the aforementioned channel’s lower line, close to 133.90. Should the pair drop below 133.90, the sellers could target the 133.00 round figure before challenging the broad support zone around 131.30-40 comprising 200-SMA and multiple levels marked since late April. It’s worth noting that the bear’s dominance past 131.30 won’t hesitate to conquer the 130.00 psychological magnet. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness further upside and can renew the multi-year top marked during the last week. However, RSI conditions could join the 138.80 key hurdle to challenge the advances.
Long
by MTradingGlobal