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USDJPY breaks key support before Fed’s preferred inflation gaugeUSDJPY broke a five-week-old support line, as well as a horizontal area around 134.25 that comprises the levels marked since June 17, to refresh the monthly low near 133.75. It’s worth noting, however, that oversold RSI conditions challenge the bears ahead of the US PCE Price Index for July, the Fed’s preferred inflation data. However, the corrective pullback needs validation from the immediate horizontal support-turned-resistance around 134.20, as well as the ascending trend line from June 23, near 135.75, to recall the buyers. Even so, the 200-SMA near 136.20 will test the upside momentum. On the contrary, the pair’s further downside aims at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July upside, around 133.15. Following that, the 131.50-25 area comprising mid-June lows and highs marked in April, as well as in May, will be a tough nut to crack for the pair bears. It’s worth noting that the pair’s sustained declines past 131.25 could make it vulnerable to revisiting May’s low around 126.35. Overall, USDJPY recently broke the crucial support but the odds favoring further downside are fewer.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers aim for $1,755 ahead of US GDPGold defends the post-Fed rally around a two-week high, also keeping the upside break of the 100-SMA level of $1,725 and the previous resistance line, now support around $1,721. The upside momentum also takes clues from the bullish MACD and RSI signals, not to forget Fed-inspired USD weakness to direct the buyers towards July 08 high near $1,753. Following that, $1,773 and $1,783 may entertain the bulls before directing them to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June 17 to July 21 downturn, near $1,820. Alternatively, pullback moves may initial aim for the 100-SMA level near $1,725 before challenging the resistance-turned-support of $1,721. However, a fortnight-old horizontal support zone, near $1,699-94, appears a tough nut to crack for metal sellers. Given the bearish MACD signals and the downbeat RSI, not to forget the Fed-led firmer USD, the precious metal is likely to decline further. That said, the yearly low of around $1,680 could offer an intermediate halt during the south run targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of $1,655.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears brace for 0.9870 with eyes on FedEURUSD remains pressured around a one-week low as traders prepared for the Fed’s verdict, likely a 0.75% rate hike and Powell’s aggression. That said, the pair’s clear downside break of the 50-SMA directs the quote toward the multi-year low marked earlier in the month around 0.9950. Given the RSI approaches the oversold territory, the pair’s declines past 0.9950 appears less expected. However, the bear’s rejection to step back from 0.9950 could open the doors for the further south-run towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June 27 to July 21 moves, around 0.9870. Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive below the 50-SMA level surrounding 1.0165. Following that the previous weekly top around 1.0275 could gain the EURUSD buyers’ attention. However, a convergence of the 200-SMA and downward sloping resistance line from early June, close to 1.0340, should challenge the bulls. Also acting as the key upside hurdle is the six-week-old horizontal area near 1.0360-65. Overall, EURUSD is likely to decline further towards refreshing the yearly bottom. However, it all depends upon the Fed’s actions. Hence, the trader’s discretion is required.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD approaches key resistance inside 250-pip trading rangeUSDCAD bounced off its monthly low on Friday, approaching a convergence of the 100 and 50-SMA around 1.2960-65 at the latest. The recovery moves also gain support from the upbeat RSI, not oversold, as well as recently improving MACD signals. That said, the Loonie pair’s upside past 1.2965 needs validation from the 1.3000 psychological magnet before approaching the 1.3080-85 resistance area. In a case where the prices rally beyond 1.3085, the monthly top of 1.3223 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, pullback moves could aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of June-July upside, around 1.2870 before challenging the stated trading range’s lower end, around 1.2820. It’s worth noting that a clear downside below 1.2820 could become detrimental for the USDCAD bulls if backed by a clear break of the 1.2800 round figure. In that case, the bears could aim for June’s low near 1.2520. Overall, USDCAD pares recent losses inside a five-week-old trading range.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bears need validation from $1,690 to keep reinsGold braces for the fifth consecutive weekly fall at the yearly low. However, oversold RSI challenges the bears as they approach the $1,690 support confluence, comprising 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-August 2020 upside and an ascending trend line from May 2020. If the precious metal posts the weekly close below $1,690, it becomes vulnerable to testing the 200-week moving average (WMA) near $1,650. It’s worth noting that the $1,650 level is the last defense for the bullion buyers and a break of which will give rein to sellers. Alternatively, the corrective pullback may aim for September 2021 low surrounding $1,721 before eying the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,765. In a case where gold prices manage to stay beyond $1,765, the $1,800 threshold and the previous support line from early 2020, around $1,865, will regain the market’s attention. Overall, the gold price is about the reach the bear’s home but multiple hurdles could trigger the corrective pullback.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD widened doors for bears ahead of FOMC MinutesEURUSD dropped to the lowest levels since late 2020 on breaking the two-month-old horizontal support area near 1.0360-50, before the latest dribbling around 20-year low. The downside also conquered the 61.8% FE of March-May moves while extending the south-run inside a four-month-long bearish channel. With this, the sellers keep reins ahead of the Fed Minutes and the US ISM Services PMI for June, both of which are likely to exert downside pressure on the quote. Hence, the major currency pair is likely to extend the fall toward testing the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level near 1.0140. In a case where the oversold RSI fails to trigger a rebound around 1.0140, the odds of witnessing the 1.0000 psychological magnet back to the chart can’t be ruled out. The 1.0000 figures also coincide with the aforementioned channel’s support line. Meanwhile, corrective pullback needs to stay beyond 1.0360 support-turned-resistance to gain the market’s confidence. Even so, the 1.0480 and upper line of the stated channel, close to 1.0540, will be crucial hurdles for the EURUSD bulls to cross before taking back control. During the quote’s run-up beyond 1.0540, late June’s swing high near 1.0615 and the previous monthly top surrounding 1.0785 could gain the market’s attention. To sum up, EURUSD stays on the bear’s radar ahead of important data/events. Even if the scheduled catalysts disappoint sellers, the recovery moves are likely to have a bumpy road ahead.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCHF rebounds from key support ahead of Swiss inflationUSDCHF snapped a two-week downtrend while bouncing off 100-DMA and a horizontal area from April 20. The corrective pullback, however, failed to provide a daily closing beyond multiple hurdles surrounding 0.9620. That said, the MACD and the RSI (14) also hint at the pair’s weakness ahead of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Switzerland. It’s worth noting that sellers could witness a pullback on firmer readings but the aforementioned horizontal support and the 100-DMA, respectively near 0.9540 and 0.9520, will be crucial for bearish confirmation. Should the quote drop below 0.9520, the odds of witnessing a slump towards March’s high, also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January-May upside, near 0.9460, can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, downbeat Swiss data may extend the latest recovery towards breaking the 0.9620 resistance, a break of which could direct the run-up to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9700. During the USDCHF advances past 0.9700, the 0.9715-20 area may act as a validation point for the north-run targeting the lows marked during early May and June, close to 0.9860. Overall, USDCHF remains on the bear’s radar unless crossing 0.9620 but the further downside needs validation from 0.9520.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD opened the door for sellers ahead of ECB ForumNot only a sustained trading below the 200-EMA but a clear downside break of the short-term ascending triangle also keeps EURUSD bears hopeful as traders await major central bankers’ debate at the ECB Forum. That said, 1.0460 appears the immediate support for the pair sellers to aim for ahead of looking at the yearly low surrounding 1.0350. During the fall, the 1.0400 round figure may offer an intermediate halt. Meanwhile, a fortnight-old triangle’s support line, now resistance around 1.0560, restricts the short-term rebound of the EURUSD pair. Following that, the 200-EMA surrounding 1.0600 and the triangle’s upper line near 1.0620 could challenge the buyers before giving them control. Should the quote manage to remain firm past 1.0620, the upside momentum could then target the 1.0700 psychological magnet before the monthly peak of 1.0773. Overall, EURUSD has already flashed bearish signals ahead of the week’s key event, which in turn makes it comfortable for sellers. However, the recession may probe policymakers from the ECB, BOE and the Fed, making it important to be cautious before taking big positions ahead of the event.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY is ready to refresh multi-year highUSDJPY sustains upside break of a weekly resistance line, now support around 134.85, as bulls brace for the fresh multi-year high, currently around 136.70. In doing so, the yen pair could aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of May 24 to June 16 moves, near 137.20. However, a convergence of the 78.6% FE and the upper line of the monthly bullish channel, near 138.80 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 138.80, the odds of witnessing the 140.00 threshold on the chart can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, pullback moves may retest the resistance-turned-support near 134.90, a break of which could direct USDJPY prices towards the aforementioned channel’s lower line, close to 133.90. Should the pair drop below 133.90, the sellers could target the 133.00 round figure before challenging the broad support zone around 131.30-40 comprising 200-SMA and multiple levels marked since late April. It’s worth noting that the bear’s dominance past 131.30 won’t hesitate to conquer the 130.00 psychological magnet. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness further upside and can renew the multi-year top marked during the last week. However, RSI conditions could join the 138.80 key hurdle to challenge the advances.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays on the way to sub-1.0300 regionEURUSD again bounces off the monthly low as sellers flirt with a horizontal area surrounding multiple levels marked since April. That being said, RSI and MACD back the major currency pair’s mid-week retreat, which in turn hints at the break of the immediate support zone near 1.0490-80. The following downturn could aim for the yearly low close to 1.0350 before allowing a chance for the bears to breathe. In a case where the quote fails to rebound from 1.0350, the odds of witnessing an extended south-run towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March-May move, around 1.0265, will be in focus. On the contrary, a 21-DMA and 50-DMA confluence of 1.0610 appears to be a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Even if the EURUSD rises past 1.0610, a downward sloping resistance line from March, close to 1.0620, could act as an extra filter to the north before giving control to the bulls. Following that, a run-up towards the monthly high of 1.0773 can’t be ruled out. However, May’s peak near 1.0785 could challenge the pair’s upside moves afterward. Overall, EURUSD has more downside scope than the otherwise but the US dollar’s dormancy probes bears.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold retreats towards $1,805 as bears await Fed’s PowellGold fades bounce off monthly horizontal support ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s key testimony. That said, gradually declining RSI (14) and bearish MACD signals add strength to the downside bias. Should the gold sellers manage to conquer the aforementioned support around $1,805, a downward trajectory towards the yearly low of $1,786 appears imminent. However, the metal’s weakness past $1,786 could make it vulnerable to testing the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April-June moves, around $1,748. Meanwhile, recovery moves need a successful break of the 100-day EMA level of $1,868 to convince gold bulls. Following that, the $1,900 threshold acts as a validation point before directing the run-up towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of April-May fall, near $1,917. It’s worth noting that gold’s upside past $1,917 enables the buyers to aim for April’s peak surrounding the $2,000 psychological magnet. To sum up, gold is set for further downside but Fed Chair Powell need not spoil the mood by taming the hawkish hopes of the US central bank.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays on the way to mid-1.3000sEURUSD holds onto its bearish bias, despite bouncing off an immediate support line. That said, a sustained trading below the 200-SMA and previous support line from late May keeps bears hopeful of breaking the nearby trend line support, around 1.0450. Following that, multiple levels surrounding 1.0400 could test the downside momentum before directing the quote towards the previous monthly low near 1.0350, also the lowest level since 2017. In a case where the pair refreshes its yearly bottom, the year 2017’s trough close to 1.0340 could act as the last defense of the bulls. On the upside, further recovery may eye 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of May 13-30 upside, near 1.0570. However, a convergence of the 200-SMA and the descending trend line from May 25 around 1.0600 appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD buyers. Even if the quote successfully crosses the 1.0600 hurdle, the June-start low around 1.0630 will be a crucial challenge for the bulls before retaking the control. Overall, EURUSD stays on the bear’s radar even after teasing a double-bottom bullish chart pattern.
Short
by MTradingGlobal