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GBPUSD bears approach 1.2950 with eyes on BOE, FedGBPUSD refreshed a 16-month low on Friday amid broad US dollar strength, as well as preparations for this week’s key monetary policy meetings of the Bank of England (BOE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). With that, the cable pair also broke 2021 bottom and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June 2021 to January 2022 moves, respectively around 1.3160 and 1.3070. As a result, a downside break of the 1.3000 psychological magnet becomes imminent. However, a descending trend line from April 2021, around 1.2950, may challenge the pair sellers afterward. In a case where the pair prices remain weak past 1.2950, the 78.6% FE level near 1.2885 and November 2020 bottom surrounding 1.2850 will be in focus. On the contrary, the corrective pullback may aim for the 61.8% FE and 2021 bottom, close to 1.3070 and 1.3160. Though, a convergence of the 10-DMA and a three-week-old descending resistance line, around 1.3220-25, will challenge the GBPUSD pair’s further upside. In a case where the quote rises past 1.3225, recovery moves will target January’s low near 1.3360. Overall, GBPUSD broke the key support levels during the last week and hence hints at the further downside. However, oversold RSI and cautious mood ahead of the BOE and Fed decisions may trouble the bears.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD is all set to test 1.1000 psychological magnetEURUSD remains on the back foot around a 21-month low, despite the recently sidelined performance. That said, the bearish MACD signals do support the latest break of a descending support line from late November, around 1.1080 at the latest, which in turn hints at the quote’s further weakness. However, the RSI line nears the oversold territory and hence indicates that a bounce a brewing around the next support. The same highlights the 1.1000 support confluence for the bears, including 13-day-old support and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s moves between September 2021 and February 2021. In a case where EURUSD’s downside fails to take a halt near 1.1000, October 2019 low near 1.0880 will gain the market’s attention. Meanwhile, the corrective pullback may aim for December 2021 low surrounding 1.1220 before directing short-term EURUSD buyers towards the mid-February 2022 bottom around 1.1280. However, a convergence of the 21 and 50-DMA close to 1.1320-25 will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls afterward. Should the quote manage to cross the 1.1325 hurdle, the odds of its rally towards a seven-week-old horizontal resistance zone near 1.1480-95 can’t be ruled out. Other than the technical details, grim concerns surrounding Ukraine pedal the rush to risk-safety, favoring the US dollar. Adding to the greenback’s strength is the comparatively more hawkish tone of the latest Fedspeak than the rest of the global central banks.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
3
AUDUSD eyes further gains on upbeat sentiment, Aussie employmentAUDUSD justifies its risk-barometer status, also backed by an upbeat Aussie jobs report for January, during Thursday. The Aussie pair stays above the 50-DMA amid upbeat RSI and MACD conditions, suggesting further advances. However, the 100-DMA and a downward sloping trend line from mid-November 2021, around 0.7240-45, becomes a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. Should the quote manage to cross the 0.7245 hurdle, January’s peak of 0.7313 will test the upside momentum before confirming the bullish trend towards the late 2021 high surrounding 0.7555. Meanwhile, the 50-DMA level of 0.7170, the 0.7100 round figure and the weekly bottom of 0.7085 restrict the short-term downside of the AUDUSD pair. Following that, 0.7050 and December 2021 low near 0.6990 will question the bears before directing them to the last month’s trough close to 0.6965. It’s worth noting that the RSI conditions may turn oversold and trigger the pair’s bounce off 0.6965, failing to do so will make the quote vulnerable to drop towards June 2020 swing low close to 0.6775.
by MTradingGlobal
Double top, RSI divergence test gold buyers above $1,800Gold marked a stellar decline after refreshing eight-month top on Tuesday, forming a double top around $1,880. Not only the bearish chart pattern but RSI divergence also warrants the buyer’s caution as the higher high in prices accompanies lower-high of the RSI line. Hence, odds of a pullback towards the 200-DMA level of $1,807 can’t be ruled out if the quote drops below January’s top near $1,853. It should be noted, however, that the metal’s weakness below $1,807 will be challenged by an ascending support line from September, close to $1,777. Meanwhile, a sustained run-up beyond the $1,880 hurdle will reject the RSI divergence and the bearish chart signals, which in turn will propel the quote towards the $1,900 threshold. Though tops marked during June and January 2021, around $1,916 and $1,960 in that order, will challenge the gold buyers if they keep reins past $1,900. In a case where the yellow metal rises past $1,960, the $2,000 psychological magnet should return to the charts. Fundamentally, today’s FOMC Minutes may also offer pullback moves of gold should the statement brighten the scope of a 0.50% rate hike in March.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears eye mid-1.1200s on risk-off mood, Fed concernsBe it increasing chatters over a 0.50% rate hike by the Fed in March or the US, EU and the UK’s signals for Russia’s imminent invasion of Ukraine, the US dollar has everything needed to consolidate early February’s losses. The same dragged EURUSD during the last week, which portrayed multiple tops around 1.1480 before ending the week by resting on 200-SMA. Given the downbeat fundamentals and the quote’s inability to cross the 1.1480 hurdle, not to forget downbeat RSI and MACD conditions, the major currency pair is likely to mark further losses. That said, a clear downside break of the 200-SMA level near 1.1340 becomes necessary for the bears to aim for a six-week-old horizontal support zone around 1.1270-65. However, the quote’s further downside will make it vulnerable to conquer the 1.1200 threshold and aim for 1.1180 figures. Following that, January’s bottom of 1.1120 will be in focus. Alternatively, corrective pullback needs to cross the 50-SMA level near 1.1400 to portray another battle with the resistance area around 1.1480. Also challenging the EURUSD bulls is the 200-week SMA level surrounding the 1.1500 round figure. If at all the pair buyers remain dominant past 1.1500, the recovery moves need validation from October 2021 low near 1.1530 before heading towards the 200-DMA on the daily chart, surrounding 1.1660, also comprising the 100-week SMA on the weekly format.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Gold clears six-week-old hurdle ahead of US inflation dataGold extends a fortnight-long recovery to stay comfortably beyond the 200-SMA and a horizontal area from early January. The run-up joins bullish MACD signals to suggest further upside but the overbought RSI line pushes buyers to remain cautious until witnessing sustained trading above $1,830. In addition to the key hurdle, gold traders should also keep their eyes on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January amid Fed’s rate hike concerns. In case of firmer inflation, the US dollar may consolidate the latest losses and weigh on the gold prices, indicating a pullback towards the 200-SMA near $1,815. Following that, the $1,800 threshold and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of December-January upside, near $1,790 may entertain gold sellers ahead of directing them to a monthly support area surrounding $1,780. Alternatively, surprise weakness in the price pressure could help gold buyers to overcome the nearby resistance zone and aim for January’s top around $1,853. Though bulls might struggle around the stated hurdle, if not then November 2021 peak close to $1,877 and the $1,900 round figure should return to the charts.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
1
Gold flirts with 200-DMA as markets await US NFPHaving reacted to ECB and BOE announcements, gold traders keep their eyes on the US monthly jobs report for January during early Friday. Given the latest negative surprise from the ADP Employment Change, today’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) becomes the key for gold prices as the metal seesaws around the 200-DMA, near $1,806 by the press time, ahead of the release. That said, the bearish bias also takes clues from late January’s downside break of a short-term key support line, now resistance around $1,820. Hence, gold prices remain on the seller’s radar until the quote crosses the $1,820 hurdle. Also acting as important resistance is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of August-November 2021 upside, near $1,827, followed by the previous month’s peak of $1,853. Alternatively, a positive surprise by the NFP, which is widely anticipated, could drag gold towards January’s bottom surrounding $1,780. However, multiple supports around $1,760 and December 2021 low of $1,751 will challenge gold sellers afterward. It should be observed that the bullion’s downside past $1,751 will need validation from 61.8% Fibo. level close to $1,747 before directing bears towards September’s low of $1,721. Overall, gold buyers run out of steam ahead of crucial US data and the downside is expected to gain strength on NFP’s positive surprise.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY is ready to refresh five-year highA clear upside break of 20-DMA enables USDJPY bulls to challenge the two-month-old horizontal resistance area, surrounding 115.50-60. Following that, the monthly peak, also the highest levels since January 2017, near 116.35, will be in focus. Although RSI conditions may provide headwinds to the yen pair around the multi-day top, any further advances will not hesitate to challenge the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of October 2021 to January 2022 moves, near 116.90. Should USDJPY prices remain sturdy past 116.90, the 117.00 threshold will act as a validation point for the further rally targeting the year 2017 high of 118.60. On the contrary, the 20-DMA level near 114.80 will test pullback moves of the USDJPY pair ahead of directing the quote to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of September 2021 to January 2022 upside, close to 113.50. It’s worth noting, however, that the stated risk barometer pair will have a tough time declining past 113.50 as the 100-DMA and 50% Fibo, around 113.40 and 112.70, will act as strong supports. In a case where the quote drops past 112.70, the bullish trend is likely to witness a major blow with the initial slump to the September high of 112.00. Fundamentally, USDJPY is all set to renew recent tops as the US dollar cheers the Fed’s hawkish halt.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears aim for sub-1.1200 area post-Fed, US GDP eyedEURUSD bears cheer a clear downside break of a two-month-old ascending trend line, as well as sustained trading below 50-DMA, to brace for 2021 bottom surrounding 1.1185. The MACD and RSI both support the bearish bias. However, the pair’s declines past 1.1185 have a bumpy road as March 2020 swing high near 1.1150 and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late September 2021 to January 2022 moves around 1.1120 will challenge the sellers afterward. It’s worth noting that the RSI conditions also inch closer to the oversold territory and hence a move past 1.1185 will push it to signal a bounce before further south-run. Alternatively, the aforementioned support-turned-resistance line near 1.1295 precedes the 50-DMA level of 1.1315 to restrict short-term EURUSD rebound. Following that, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of September-November 2021 declines, close to 1.1360, will gain the market’s attention. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s upside beyond 1.1360 will be challenged by the 1.1460-65 resistance confluence, comprising 100-DMA and 38.2% Fibo. To sum up, EURUSD has already flagged downside signals towards 2021 bottom but any further weakness becomes doubtful.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers struggle inside rising wedge on Fed dayWhile a year-long resistance line has been testing gold buyers for one week, a six-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern teases sellers as markets brace for the Fed’s verdict. Given the sluggish RSI and receding bullish bias of the MACD, bears await a downside break of the $1,828 mark, comprising 50-SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of November-December downside. Following that, the lower line of the stated wedge near $1,816 becomes crucial as it holds the key to a slump towards September’s low near $1,721. During the fall, the 200-SMA level of $1,806 and $1,760 may offer intermediate halts. Alternatively, an upside break of $1,848 will lure buyers but an upper line of the wedge, around $1,851, may test the run-up towards the $1,900 threshold. Also acting as upside filters are the tops marked in November and March months of 2021, respectively around $1,877 and $1,916. On a fundamental side, the Fed is widely anticipated to hint for March rate hikes and balance-sheet normalization amid inflation fears. That said, a slight disappointment is enough for gold to rally towards $1,900 but the bears are so far trying to battle bulls amid hawkish hopes. Hence, it’s better to wait for the actual outcome.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebound needs to stay beyond 1.1385 to convince bullsEURUSD extends the run-up beyond 200-SMA to cross a two-month-old horizontal area surrounding 1.1385 post-US inflation data. Given the price-positive signals from the MACD and RSI, the major currency pair is likely to keep the recent rebound. However, a sustained run-up beyond 1.1385 becomes necessary for the pair buyers to challenge the mid-November peak near 1.1465. Following that, the 1.1500 threshold will offer an intermediate halt during an upward trajectory towards early November’s swing highs around 1.1600. Meanwhile, failure to stay beyond 1.1385 could trigger a pullback move targeting the 200-SMA level near 1.1310. It should be noted, however, that the EURUSD weakness past 1.1300 will be challenged by an upward sloping support line from late November, around 1.1265. Also acting as a downside filter is the year 2021 bottom close to 1.1185. In a case where the major currency pair drops below 1.1185, March 2020 high near 1.1150 and 61.8% FE of November 09-30 moves, around 1.1120, will gain the market’s attention. To sum up, EURUSD crossed a strong hurdle to the north after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data but bulls seek confirmation from 1.1385.
by MTradingGlobal
2
Gold buyers tighten grips ahead of US inflation dataGold keeps the bounce off 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of November-December fall to cross the 100-SMA surrounding $1,805, backed by firmer RSI and higher-low formation. As MACD is also shifting in favor of the bulls, the metal prices are likely heading towards 61.8% Fibo. level near $1,830. However, a two-month-old horizontal resistance and tops marked during the July-September period, around $1,834, will be tough challenges for the gold bulls to cross before convincing markets. Hence, a short-term upward trajectory is brewing ahead of the key data. Meanwhile, a downside break of the weekly support line, around $1,795 at the latest, will trigger a fresh round of gold-selling towards the recent swing low of $1,787. Though, any further weakness will be challenged by multiple supports marked since early November close to $1,760. If at all the gold bears keep reins past $1,760, December’s bottom of $1,751 will act as the last hope for buyers before throwing dice for sellers targeting September’s low surrounding $1,721.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bears bracing for Fed’s verdict inside $25 rangeGold traders prepare for the end of two-week-long choppy moves between 200-DMA and an ascending trend line from early October with eyes on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. With the faster tapering and a hint to rate hike in 2022 expected, bears are hopeful. However, Omicron fears are up for throwing a wild card and can fuel the precious metal prices should the Fed sounds cautious. In that case, a clear run-up beyond the 200-DMA level of $1,794 won’t be enough as the $1,800 threshold will act as a validation point to welcome the bulls. Following that, $1,815 and $1,834 should offer buffers before directing the quote to $1,850 and November’s peak of $1,877. Meanwhile, a downside break of the $1,770 support confluence, comprising a 10-week-old rising trend line and 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of August-November upside, will direct bears towards $1,745 and $1,721 support levels. If the gold sellers keep reins past $1,721, the $1,700 threshold and the yearly low surrounding $1,668 will be in focus. Overall, gold prices remain vulnerable to the downside but surprises lurk behind the door, be cautious!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers cheer bear cross, key support break below $1,800Despite bouncing off a four-week low, gold prices are vulnerable to further downside as sustained trading below the two-month-old support line, now resistance, joins the bearish cross-over of the 200-SMA to 50-DMA. That said, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of September-November upside, near $1,755, may restrict short-term declines of the yellow metal ahead of September’s low near $1,721. It’s worth noting that a clear downside break of the $1,721 needs validation from the $1,717 level before challenging the $1,700 threshold. Meanwhile, gold traders are consolidating the previous day’s losses ahead of the key US ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP Employment Change data, not to forget Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. Should the US catalysts join anxiety over Omicron to weigh on risk catalysts and the US dollar, gold prices can extend the latest corrective pullback towards the previous support line near $1,787. However, a five-week-old horizontal area surrounding $1,810 will be a tough nut to crack for the gold buyers afterward.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
1
Gold bears need validation from 200-SMA on Fed dayGold refreshes weekly low, taking offers around $1,778 during early Wednesday. The yellow metal justifies a downside break of 100-SMA, suggesting further weakness towards a three-week-old support line near $1,775. However, 200-SMA acts as additional support around $1,770 to challenge bears before the Fed reveals the tapering surprise. Should the Fed matches or surpasses hawkish market hopes, gold’s downside to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1,748 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the 100-SMA level of $1,785 guards the immediate upside of the commodity, a break of which will direct buyers to the weekly peak near $1,796. In a case where the gold bulls keep reins past $1,796, the $1,800 threshold and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level close to $1,810 will be in focus. Overall, gold sellers are in the driver’s seat before the likely bearish event for the metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD drops back to key support on RBA’s YCC pauseAUDUSD slumps 60 pips on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) end to the Yield Curve Control (YCC) measures. In doing so, the Aussie pair extends pullback from the 200-DMA, challenging a two-month-old broad horizontal support area between 0.7475 and 0.7450. Given the downward sloping RSI and hawkish hopes from the Fed, the quote may conquer the 0.7450 support to signal further declines targeting the late October’s swing low around 0.7380. In a case where the bearish impulse remains intact below 0.7380, September 24 bottom surrounding 0.7315 will be in the spotlight. On the contrary, September’s peak near 0.7480 guards immediate recovery ahead of the 10-DMA level surrounding the 0.7500 round figure. In a case where AUDUSD bulls keep reins past 0.7500, the 200-DMA and the latest peak close to 0.7555 should gain the market’s attention. Overall, AUDUSD bears need validation from the Fed to extend the RBA-led downside momentum.
by MTradingGlobal
1
Key SMA confluence probes gold buyers below $1,800Gold prints four-day uptrend, tracking monthly support line amid early Friday. However, a convergence of the 100 and 200-DMAs near $1,795 offers a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Should the quote rise past $1,795, the mid-September peak near $1,809 may offer an intermediate halt during the run-up targeting the $1,834 crucial resistance, marked twice in 2021. It’s worth noting that the latest inflation chatters underpin the US Treasury yields and may recall the US dollar bulls should today’s PMIs for October arrive as strong, which in turn could pull the gold prices back from a strong resistance level. On the contrary, a downside break of the stated support line, around $1,778 by the press time, may need validation from $1,770 and June’s low near $1,750 to convince gold sellers. Following that, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of June-August fall, near $1,733, could probe the fall targeting the $1,700 threshold and the yearly bottom surrounding $1,668. Overall, gold remains in the consolidation mode and needs confirmation for further upside.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebound fades before Fed Chairman Powell’s speechEURUSD struggles to extend the strongest recovery in a month as anxiety over Evergrande test pair buyers ahead of a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. With this, the currency major steps back from the weekly resistance line, which in turn suggests further weakness towards the 1.1700 threshold. However, the quote’s downside past 1.1700 will not hesitate to refresh the yearly low near 1.1665. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the immediate trend line hurdle surrounding 1.1745 will direct the quote towards a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.1760. Even if the EURUSD bulls manage to cross 1.1760, 200-SMA and a descending resistance line from September 03, respectively near 1.1775 and 1.1785, will precede the September 17 peak of 1.1788 to challenge the pair’s further advances. Overall, EURUSD remains pressured but traders await key catalysts for fresh impulse.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Gold heads to $1,790 key hurdle with eyes on Fed taperingRisk-on mood helps gold extend the early-week rebound towards the key upside resistance area during early Wednesday. In addition to the confluence of 200-EMA, a descending trend line from September 03 and a five-week-old support line, fears of the Fed’s tapering also challenge gold buyers. Should the Fed refrains from providing any signals to the 2021 taper, versus the widely expected move, gold prices may overcome the stated resistance near $1,790 and rush towards the $1,834 double top. During the run-up, the $1,800 threshold and multiple stops marked during late August around $1,817-18 may test the bulls. Meanwhile, pullback moves may aim for 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of August 09 to early September upside, respectively near $1,755 and $1,737. Following that, the August 10 low near $1,710 and the $1,700 round figure could flash on the bears’ radars before the yearly low close to $1,678 gains the market’s attention. Overall, gold approaches tough resistance to justify the strength of recovery moves as markets brace for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting announcement
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MTradingGlobal
Gold jumps back beyond 200-SMA ahead of Fed Chair Powell speechGold justifies the rebound from a two-week-old rising support line to cross the 200-SMA, suggesting further advances towards the key resistance line from July 29, around $1,806. In addition to an important trend line hurdle, today’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium also becomes crucial for gold traders. Hence, the bullion players should wait for both the events, the latter is better, for clear direction. Should the bulls take over past $1,806, a monthly high surrounding $1,831 and July’s peak surrounding $1,835 should return to the charts. Meanwhile, 200-SMA and the stated immediate support line restrict the metal’s short-term downside respectively around $1,794 and $1,782. During the quote’s fall past $1,782, the mid-August’s swing low near $1,770 could offer another chance for the bull’s entry. Failures to do so can drag gold prices towards August 10 low near $1,717 before highlighting the $1,700 threshold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold stays pressured below $1900 as traders await ECB, US CPIGold prices remain on the back foot amid anxious hours of early Thursday as markets wait for the ECB and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Although the ECB is less likely to become a major catalyst, the anticipated optimism of the bloc’s policymakers could offer intermediate bounce to gold prices. However, a stronger-than-expected beat of the US inflation data won’t be taken lightly and can drag the yellow metal on release. It should, however, be noted that ascending support line from mid-May and late April, respectively around $1,879 and $1,871, could probe sellers whereas 200-SMA near $1,848 and May 10 top close to $1,845 adds to the downside filters. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the monthly resistance line, close to $1,900, will aim for the recent high of $1,917. In a case where the gold buyers keep reins past $1,917, October 2020 levels near $1,933 should offer an intermediate halt during the rally targeting the yearly peak of $1,960. To sum up, today is a test for the gold buyers who seemed to have tired of late.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers brace for a bumpy drive on NFP dayThe heaviest fall since late February couldn’t beat gold buyers as the metal stays above the key support line from March 31, near $1,851, on the key US NFP release day. Additionally important are the speeches of US President Joe Biden and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. It should be noted that while MACD and RSI flash contrasting signals, bears will have a bumpy road even if they manage to break the $1,851 support. The reason could be traced to the monthly horizontal line and multiple tops marked from late April, respectively around $1,843 and $1,800 threshold. Meanwhile, a corrective pullback will have to cross the 100-SMA level of $1,878 before targeting the $1,889-90 resistance area. It should, however, be noted that the $1,900 round figure and the latest high near $1,916 will act as extra filters to the north-run targeting the yearly top close to $1,960. Overall, gold’s uptrend is challenged but bulls aren’t out of the woods.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MTradingGlobal