“Golden Cross” directs Gold buyers toward $2,400 as US NFP loomsGold braces for the first weekly gain in three even as it seesaws at the highest level in a fortnight early Friday. That said, the precious metal’s latest inaction could be linked to the cautious mood ahead of the US monthly employment data including the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Even so, the quote’s capacity to reverse from a month-old rising support line, backed by the bullish MACD signals and upbeat RSI (14) line, keeps the buyers hopeful. Apart from that, the 50-SMA also crosses the 200-SMA from below and portrays a bullish moving average crossover known as the “Golden Cross”, which in turn also suggests the XAUUSD’s upside. With this, the bullion is almost certain to hit an 11-week-old previous support line, now immediate resistance near the $2,400 threshold. However, a horizontal area comprising tops marked since early April, around $2,431-33, quickly followed by the all-time high of $2,450 flashed in May, will challenge the bulls afterward.
On the contrary, a strong US jobs report and a firmer US Dollar could drag the Gold price back toward the aforementioned SMAs, close to $2,346-45 by the press time. Following that, a one-month-old ascending support line near $2,320 and the $2,300 round figure will lure the XAUUSD bears. It’s worth noting that May’s low of nearly $2,277 acts as the final defense of the buyers, a break of which will give control to the bullion sellers targeting late March swing high surrounding $2,222.
Overall, the Gold price is likely to extend the previous run-up but the upside room is limited.
Fed
EURUSD bulls need validation from 1.0920 and ECBEURUSD prints the first daily gains in three while approaching the top line of a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. Apart from the 1.0920 upside hurdle comprising the stated resistance line, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) widely expected rate cut also poses a challenge to the major currency pair’s further upside. Additionally, the sluggish MACD signals and unimpressive RSI line also raise bars for the buyers. Hence, the quote is likely to witness a pullback toward the weekly support line of around 1.0860 unless the ECB surprises the market, either with no rate cut or by providing hints of no more actions in the near term. In a case where the bears dominate past 1.0860, the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support of near 1.0815 could gain the spotlight. It’s worth mentioning that the Euro sellers will gain conviction if the pair confirms the rising wedge pattern by falling beneath the 1.0765 support, which in turn opens the door for a theoretical fall toward 1.0450.
Meanwhile, the ECB’s ability to convince the buyers, despite announcing the 0.25% cut to its benchmark rates, could help the EURUSD pair to cross the 1.0920 resistance. In that case, the quote’s run-up toward March’s peak surrounding 1.0980 and then to the 1.1000 threshold can’t be ruled out. However, the yearly high of near 1.1040 and the late 2023 top around 1.1140 will challenge the Euro pair’s upside past 1.1000.
To sum up, EURUSD braces for a post-ECB pullback while rising towards a short-term key resistance ahead of the event. However, the ECB’s hawkish halt might convince the buyers to return, which in turn requires traders to remain cautious before the outcome.
Softer Australia GDP growth, rising wedge lure AUDUSD bearsAUDUSD picks up bids to consolidate the biggest daily loss in a fortnight early Wednesday even as Australia’s Q1 GDP growth softens to 0.1% QoQ and 1.1% YoY respectively versus 0.3% and 1.6% priors in that order. The Aussie growth numbers also slide beneath market forecasts of 0.2% QoQ and 1.2% YoY. However, prices recover from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), close to 0.6635 at the latest, while posting mild gains within a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, currently between 0.6620 and 0.6750. It should be noted that mostly steady RSI conditions and the downbeat MACD signals join the softer Aussie growth to keep sellers hopeful. That said, the bears need validation from the 200-EMA support of 0.6610, in addition to the rising wedge’s bottom line of 0.6620, to retake control. Following that, the pair will be vulnerable to revisit the previous yearly low of 0.6270 while witnessing 0.6460 and the 2024 bottom surrounding 0.6360 as intermediate halts during the run-down to chase a theoretical target of the rising wedge confirmation.
Alternatively, the 0.6700 threshold guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair in case of the quote’s further recovery. Should the bulls keep the reins past 0.6700, the yearly high of near 0.6715 and the aforementioned rising wedge’s top line surrounding 0.6750 will challenge the Aussie bulls. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 0.6750, the late 2023 peak around 0.6870 and the 0.7000 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight.
Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s latest recovery could be considered a selling opportunity until the quote stays beneath 0.6750.
GBPUSD crosses key resistance to refresh 11-week highGBPUSD rises to the highest level since mid-March by crossing an 11-month-old descending resistance line, now immediate support near 1.2800. The bullish MACD signals and the Pound Sterling’s ability to trade successfully beyond the 100-SMA also underpin the upside bias. It’s worth noting, however, that the nearly overbought RSI (14) line challenges the quote’s further advances, highlighting the yearly peak marked in March around 1.2895, quickly followed by the 1.2900 threshold, as the key upside hurdles. In a case where the Cable remains firmer past 1.2900, the 1.3000 psychological magnet will be the last defense of the bears before directing buyers toward the late 2023 peak of surrounding 1.3145.
Conversely, a daily closing beneath 1.2800 will defy the GBPUSD pair’s latest resistance break. The same could direct the sellers toward a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October 2023 downturn, near 1.2720. Even so, the Pound Sterling bears need to wait for a clear downside break of the six-week-old rising support line, close to 1.2655, as well as the 100-SMA level of 1.2635, to retake control. Should the Cable drop beneath 1.2635, it becomes vulnerable to drop toward February’s low marked around 1.2520.
Overall, GBPUSD gains the buyer’s attention as it clears the key upside hurdle. However, the room toward the north appears limited.
EURUSD fades bounce off 200-SMA as EU/US inflation clues loomEURUSD marked the biggest daily gain in a week the previous day while bouncing off the 200-SMA as the Eurozone data came in overall positive while the US statistics mostly disappointed. Also allowing the Euro pair to rebound from the key SMA level is the consolidation ahead of today’s first readings of the EU inflation data and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, also known as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. That said, the quote’s inability to defend the previous day’s rebound joins the bearish MACD signals and unimpressive RSI conditions to lure the bears. However, a daily closing beneath the 200-SMA support of 1.0787 becomes necessary for the seller’s return. It’s worth noting that a five-month-old resistance-turned-support line near 1.0790 and an upward-sloping trend line stretched from mid-April, close to 1.0750, act as additional downside filters. Should the pair sellers keep control past 1.0750, February’s low of 1.0694 and the yearly bottom marked in April around 1.0600 will be in the spotlight.
Alternatively, the EURUSD pair’s recovery remains elusive beneath a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 1.0885 at the latest. That said, the 1.0900 threshold also stands tall to test the Euro bulls before directing them toward March’s peak of near 1.0980 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Furthermore, the quote’s successful trading beyond the 1.1000 mark allows the bulls to challenge the late 2023 top surrounding 1.1140, as well as the previous yearly peak of 1.1275.
To sum up, the EURUSD pair remains weak within a short-term trading range ahead of the key EU/US data.
XAU - Gold price is falling according to tonight's news trend?Gold prices dropped slightly to hover around $2,360 per ounce on Wednesday.
According to analysis
GOLD is following the previous wave E assessment, completing wave 4 and continuing wave 5.
Gold price resumed its uptrend on Thursday and climbed more than 1% as US Treasury yields dropped, undermining the Greenback's appetite.
ZONE SELL: 2358 - 2362
ZONE BUY: 2308 - 2312
ZONE BACKOUT: 2324
Good luck my Friend
Gold remains vulnerable to further downside, $2,306 eyedGold slides beneath a four-week-old rising support line while extending the previous day’s fall amid a firmer US Dollar early Thursday. That said, the bullion marked the biggest daily loss in a week and snapped a three-day winning streak on Wednesday. It should be noted that the quote’s latest support break joins the bearish MACD signals and steady RSI to keep sellers hopeful. As a result, a convergence of an eight-week-old rising support line and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), close to $2,306, gains the market’s attention. If at all the precious metal remains weak past $2,306, the monthly bottom of $2,277 and the early April swing low surrounding $2,265 will act as the last defense of the buyers.
On the contrary, the XAUUSD’s corrective bounce needs to provide a daily closing beyond the support-turned-resistance line, near $2,340 by the press time, to convince the buyers. Even so, a slew of resistances around $2,360 and $2,390 will challenge the Gold price upside before highlighting a seven-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $2,433. Following that, the recent high of near $2,450 and the $2,500 threshold should lure the bulls.
To sum up, the Gold price signals further downside but a clear break of $2,306 becomes necessary to defeat the bulls at least for the short term.
AUDUSD seesaws within rising wedge despite upbeat Australia CPIAUDUSD makes rounds to mid-0.6600s early Wednesday despite witnessing better-than-forecast Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Australia. In doing so, the Aussie pair flirts with a horizontal support zone comprising multiple levels marked since early January, close to 0.6645-40. The pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the bearish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line. However, the sellers need validation from a nine-week-old rising wedge bearish chart formation between 0.6610 and 0.6720 to retake control. Even so, a convergence of the 100-SMA and the 50-SMA, near 0.6560, will be a tough nut to crack for the bears.
Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s rebound from the aforementioned support zone surrounding 0.6645-40 could quickly reclaim the 0.6700 round figure ahead of challenging the bearish chart pattern by poking the 0.6720 upside hurdle. If the quote remains firmer past 0.6720, it will also portray a bullish crossover among the moving averages and suggest further advances. That said, the 0.6800 round figure might test the Aussie pair’s upside past 0.6720 before directing it to the late 2023 peak around 0.6870.
Overall, a lack of conviction in the upbeat Aussie inflation signals and downbeat oscillators keep AUDUSD sellers hopeful within a bearish chart pattern. However, the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
Overbought RSI, 1.2810 hurdle will test GBPUSD bullsGBPUSD rises for the third consecutive day while refreshing the two-month high. In doing so, the Cable pair cheers a pullback in the US Dollar, as well as the recent hawkish commentary from the Bank of England (BoE) officials. However, the overbought RSI (14) conditions will join a downward-sloping resistance line from July 2023, close to 1.2810 by the press time, to test the buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.2810, the yearly high marked in March around 1.2895, quickly followed by the 1.2900 threshold, will precede the 1.3000 psychological magnet to attract the bids.
Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the GBPUSD pair’s July-October downside, near 1.2720, acts as immediate support to watch during a fresh pullback. Following that, April’s high near 1.2710 and the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.2630 should lure the Pound Sterling bears. It’s worth noting, however, that the Cable pair’s bearish trend remains elusive unless witnessing a daily closing beneath a convergence of the 50-SMA and a five-week-old rising support line, close to 1.2580 as we write.
Overall, the GBPUSD pair marches toward the key upside hurdle as most traders return to their desks after a long weekend in the US and the UK.
USDJPY retreats within rising wedge on US holidayUSDJPY snaps a three-day winning streak early Monday even as markets lack momentum amid holidays in the US and the UK. In doing so, the Yen pair pares the previous weekly gains as mixed concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next move join a cautious mood ahead of this week’s key inflation clues from Japan and the US.
It should be observed that the USDJPY pair’s latest pullback takes place from the resistance line of a three-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. The retreat also gained support from the RSI (14) line’s fall from the overbought territory and the bearish MACD signals, which in turn suggests a continuation of the quote’s latest declines toward the 156.00 threshold. However, a convergence of the stated wedge’s bottom line and the 200-SMA, near the 155.25-15 region, closely followed by the 155.00 round figure, will be strong support for the bears to conquer before taking control. Should the pair remain weak past 155.00, a five-week-old rising support line near 152.6 and the monthly low of near 151.85 will be in the spotlight.
Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s fresh recovery needs a clear rejection of the rising wedge bearish chart pattern by crossing the 157.30 immediate hurdle. Even so, the monthly high near 158.00, the 160.00 threshold, and the recent peak of near 160.20, as well as the year 1990 top surrounding 160.40, will offer intermediate halts during the quote’s further run-up.
Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness a pullback in prices but the downside remains elusive beyond 155.00.
Gold braces for biggest weekly loss of 2024, focus on $2,270Gold licks its wounds at the lowest level in a fortnight after falling in the last three consecutive days. With this, the precious metal becomes vulnerable to post the biggest weekly fall since late September 2023. The downside bias takes clues from a clear break of a nine-week-old support line, now immediate resistance near $2,340, as well as the bearish MACD signals and steady RSI. With this, the spot Gold price (XAUUSD) is likely to drop toward the 50-SMA support of $2,309. However, an ascending trend line from early April, close to $2,294 at the latest, will challenge the bullion bears afterward. It’s worth noting that a 3.5-month-old rising support line near $2,270 acts as the final defense of the buyers, a break of which will not hesitate to welcome the bears targeting the $2,200 threshold.
On the contrary, the Gold buyers need validation from the $2,340 support-turned-resistance to retake control. Even so, the 10-SMA hurdle of $2,375 and the $2,400 psychological magent will challenge the XAUUSD bulls afterward. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past $2,400, the $2,430 and the $2,450 should allow the bulls to take a breather before pushing them toward the $2,500 round figure.
Overall, the Gold price is likely to witness a short-term downside but remains in the bullish trend unless declining below $2,270.
EURUSD bounces off 1.0810 support confluence ahead of key PMIsEURUSD portrays a corrective bounce from the lowest level in a week, snapping a three-day losing streak, as traders await the first readings of the Eurozone and the US PMIs for May early Thursday. In doing so, the Euro pair also takes a U-turn from a convergence of the 100-SMA and previous resistance line stretched from late December 2023, close to 1.0810. The recovery also takes clues from the upbeat RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals, allowing buyers to remain hopeful. With this, the quote is likely to extend the latest rebound toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2023 to April 2024 downturn, near 1.0870. However, a 4.5-month-old descending resistance line surrounding 1.0890 and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio near 1.0940 could test the pair’s further upside. It’s worth noting that the highs marked in March and mid-January, respectively near 1.0980 and 1.1000, act as the final defense of the bears.
Alternatively, the EURUSD bears need validation from the EU/US PMIs, the 1.0810 support confluence, and the 1.0800 threshold to keep the reins. Following that, the Euro pair’s gradual decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0730 and then to February’s bottom of around 1.0695 can’t be ruled out. In a case where the sellers dominate past 1.0695, the prices become vulnerable to slump toward the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600.
To sum up, EURUSD is likely to witness recovery but the upside move hinges on a successful break of 1.0890 and the scheduled data points.
NZDUSD jumps on RBNZ’s hawkish halt, 0.6140-45 hurdle tests bullNZDUSD prints the biggest daily jump in more than a week, as well as snaps a two-day losing streak, on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish halt. That said, the RBNZ held the benchmark rates unchanged, as expected, but upwardly revised the forward rate guidance. The same pushed back the rate cut and signaled expectations of a rate hike during the year. As a result, the Kiwi pair rallied to the 2.5-month high after the RBNZ announcements before retreating from 0.6152, up more than half a percent intraday by the press time.
In addition to the hawkish RBNZ concerns, the NZDUSD pair’s successful trading beyond the previous resistance line stretched from late December 2023, bullish MACD signals and the upbeat RSI (14) line also keeps the buyers hopeful. However, a daily closing beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from January, near 0.6140 by the press time, becomes necessary for trading conviction. Adjacent to the 0.6140 hurdle is the previous weekly high and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s late 2023 upside, near 0.6145. Hence, the bulls need validation from 0.6140-45 to keep the reins. Following that, the double tops marked in February and March around 0.6220 and 23.6% Fibonacci ratio near 0.6230, followed by the 0.6280-85 resistance region, will become the upside targets.
On the contrary, a convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a three-week-old rising trend line, around 0.6075-70 at the latest, restricts the NZDUSD pair’s short-term downside ahead of the previously stated resistance-turned-support line near 0.6060. In a case where the Kiwi pair remains bearish past 0.6060, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near the 0.6000 threshold, will act as the final defense of the bears before directing the prices toward the yearly low of near 0.5850.
Overall, the Kiwi pair is likely to remain firmer unless declining back beneath the 0.6060 level. However, fresh buying should wait for a clear upside break of 0.6145.
USDJPY confirms inverse head & shoulders during four-day uptrendUSDJPY rises to the highest level in a week while crossing a downward-sloping resistance line from late April, now immediate support near 156.10, amid a four-day winning streak early Tuesday. In doing so, the Yen pair confirms an inverse head and shoulders bullish chart pattern by extending the previous week’s rebound from the 200-SMA. It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals and an upward-sloping RSI (14) line, not overbought, also keep the pair buyers hopeful. With this, the quote approaches the mid-month peak surrounding 156.80 before challenging the monthly high of around 158.00. Following that, the 160.00 threshold, the yearly high of 160.20 and the year 1990 top of 160.40 can test the bulls during their run-up toward the theoretical target of the aforementioned inverse head and shoulders bullish formation, namely 162.50.
Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s retreat remains elusive unless breaking the neckline of the stated bullish chart formation, close to 156.10. In a case where the Yen pair drops beneath the 156.10 resistance-turned-support, it will defy the inverse head and shoulders and can quickly revisit the 200-SMA support of near 154.60. It should be observed, however, that the bullish bias remains intact as far as the pair stays beyond a two-month-old ascending support line, near 152.45 as we write.
Overall, the USDJPY pair braces for a fresh record high while confirming a bullish chart formation. Any pullback, backed by the downbeat US data and softer yields, remains unimportant until the pair exceeds 152.45.
GBPUSD bulls jostle with key upside hurdles within rising wedgeGBPUSD struggles to extend the biggest weekly gains since early March while confronting a five-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.2700-2710 early Monday. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes clues from the overbought RSI (14) and the sluggish MACD signals while hovering near the upper end of the one-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside clearance of 1.2710 won’t be an open invitation to the Cable buyers as the stated wedge’s top-line surrounding 1.2720 will test the upside momentum. Following that, the quote’s advances toward the late March high of near 1.2800 and then to the yearly peak of around 1.2895 can’t be ruled out.
It’s worth mentioning, however, that the oscillators suggest a pullback in the GBPUSD price and hence a horizontal resistance area comprising the tops marked since early May, close to 1.2635-45, gains the market’s attention. In a case where the Cable prices drop beneath the 1.2635, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of March-April fall, surrounding the 1.2600 threshold, will lure the sellers. Above all, a convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the aforementioned rising wedge’s lower line, close to 1.2565-60, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers, a break of which will confirm the bearish chart pattern suggesting a theoretical fall targeting the area surrounding mid-1.2100s.
In summary, the GBPUSD pair will likely witness a pullback in the prices but the bears need validation from the 1.2565-60 and the UK inflation/PMI data.
USDJPY pokes key resistance, US inflation, Japan's GDP eyedUSDJPY jostles with a fortnight-old horizontal resistance as buyers turn cautious ahead of this week’s US inflation and the first readings of Japan’s Q1 2024 GDP. In doing so, the Yen pair struggles to extend the previous week’s recovery from the 50-SMA. That said, the near-50 RSI levels join the receding strength of the bearish MACD signals to suggest a continuation of the quote’s latest rebound within the bullish trend channel comprising levels marked since late 2023. It’s worth noting, however, that a clear upside break of the immediate 155.20-156.00 resistance zone becomes necessary for the bulls to retake control. In that case, the upper line of the previously stated bullish channel, close to 159.00 by the press time, will precede the 160.00 psychological magnet and the year 1990’s peak of 160.40 to lure the buyers.
Meanwhile, softer US inflation and upbeat Japan growth numbers could trigger the USDJPY pair’s retreat toward the mid-April swing highs around 154.80. However, the 50-SMA and the aforementioned bullish channel’s bottom line, respectively near 152.50 and 152.00, could challenge the Yen pair sellers afterward. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 152.00, the 150.00 threshold will act as the final defense of the buyers.
Overall, the USDJPY pair remains bullish, despite the latest inaction, but the upside room remains limited.
EURUSD bulls keep control ahead of ECB Minutes, US dataEURUSD pares the biggest daily gains of the week while posting mild losses early Friday. Even so, the Euro pair remains on the way to posting a four-week uptrend as traders prepare for the European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, also known as the ECB Minutes, as well as the preliminary readings of the US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations. It should be noted that upbeat RSI and MACD conditions keep the buyers hopeful but a downward-sloping resistance line from early March, close to 1.0790 at the latest, guards the immediate upside of the pair. Apart from the oscillators like RSI and MACD, the looming “Golden Cross”, a bullish moving average crossover, also keep the buyers hopeful. However, a clear upside of the 5.5-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0825 as we write, becomes necessary for the bulls to retake control. In that case, the gradual run-up toward March’s high of 1.0980 and then to the 1.1000 threshold can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, a pullback move remains uninteresting beyond the 50-SMA support of 1.0735. Following that, the lows marked in April and February, respectively around 1.0725 and 1.0695, could test the EURUSD bears before directing them to the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600. It’s worth noting that the Euro pair’s sustained weakness past 1.0600 makes it vulnerable to challenge the previous yearly bottom surrounding 1.0450-45 but the same needs validation from the strong US fundamentals, as well as downbeat EU catalysts.
Overall, EURUSD bulls are likely to retake control after staying off the grid for some time.
However, the fundamentals need to back the pair’s bullish technical details to support the upside bias.
100-SMA prods GBPUSD bears on BoE Super ThursdayGBPUSD stays defensive at the lowest level in a week, snapping a two-day losing streak, as the pair traders await the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Announcements, as well as the quarterly monetary policy report that makes the day a “Super Thursday”. It’s worth noting that the 100-SMA puts a short-term trading floor under the prices near 1.2480, especially amid the downbeat RSI suggesting a pause in the previous fall. However, the bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained downside break of a two-week-old support line, now immediate resistance surrounding 1.2515, and clear trading beneath a downward-sloping trend line resistance stretched since mid-March, at 1.2585 at the latest, keeps the sellers hopeful. Even if the Pound Sterling gains support from the BoE and rises past 1.2585, the monthly high of 1.2634 will be the last defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls.
Meanwhile, a downside break of the 100-SMA support of 1.2480, as well as the BoE’s inability to convince the GBPUSD bulls, will resume a south run targeting the 1.2400 threshold. In a case where the Cable bears keep the reins past 1.2400, the yearly bottom marked in April surrounding 1.2300 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s March-May moves, near 1.2265, will be in the spotlight ahead of the late 2023 bottom of near 1.2067.
Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains in a bearish trend on the BoE Super Thursday despite the latest consolidation. Hence, even a surprise rebound should not be considered a bullish sign.
Gold keeps buyers in game despite recent inaction, $2,338 eyedGold price lacks bullish momentum despite staying positive on a weekly basis, after a two-week downtrend. While bearish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line suggest a continuation of the metal’s recent sideways performance, a one-month-old falling wedge bullish chart formation keeps the buyers hopeful. It’s worth noting that the 21-SMA resistance of $2,338 will act as an extra filter toward the north, in addition to the stated wedge’s upper line surrounding $2,322. Following that, the quote’s run-up toward the $2,400 threshold and then to the latest peak of around $2,431 can’t be ruled out. In a case where the XAUUSD remains firmer past $2,431, the bullion buyers can aim for the theoretical target of falling wedge confirmation, close to $2,480 in this case.
On the flip side, the $2,300 round figure and $2,285 restrict the short-term downside of the Gold price ahead of the aforementioned wedge’s bottom line, near $2,275 by the press time. Should the precious metal drop beneath the $2,275 support, it defies the bullish chart formation and can direct the XAUUSD sellers toward the 50-SMA support of $2,251. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the buyers should remain hopeful of witnessing a corrective bounce, even during the gradual fall, unless the quote breaks an ascending trend line support stretched from the mid-February, around $2,219 as we write.
Overall, the Gold price is likely to reverse the previous losses but a sustained upside clearance of $2,338 is a must for bulls to retake control.
AUDUSD portrays “fakeout” on RBA’s status quoOn Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its monetary policy unchanged, as expected, and dragged the AUDUSD pair back from an intraday high. With this, the Aussie pair defies Friday’s breakout of a four-month-old descending resistance line, terming it the “false breakout” or “fakeout”. In addition to the fakeout, the RSI’s retreat from the overbought territory and an impending bear cross on the MACD also tease the sellers. However, a clear downside break of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line surrounding 0.6600 and RBA Governor Michele Bullock's dovish remarks are needed for the bears to retake control. In that case, the pair’s quick fall toward 0.6570 and the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level near 0.6530 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth mentioning that the seller’s dominance past 0.6530 depends on the ability to break a three-week-old rising support line, close to 0.6515 at the latest.
Meanwhile, an area comprising multiple levels marked since early January, near 0.6645-40, guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair. Following that, March’s peak of 0.6667 and the 0.6700 threshold will challenge the buyers. If the Aussie pair remains firmer beyond the 0.6700 hurdle, 0.6730, 0.6780 and the 0.6800 round figure could test the upside momentum before directing the bulls toward the late 2023 high of 0.6871.
Overall, the AUDUSD pair signals a pullback price move, but the bearish momentum will likely remain tepid unless fundamental support is gained.
USDJPY rebound appears elusive below 155.70USDJPY bounces off a one-month low to snap a three-day winning streak early Monday. In doing so, the Yen pair takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of its March-April upside amid a nearly oversold RSI. Given the receding bearish strength of the MACD signals and the quote’s rebound from the key Fibonacci ratio, as well as the RSI (14) line’s recovery from the oversold territory, the latest run-up in price is likely to prevail for a bit. The same highlights the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 155.00 for short-term buyers. However, a convergence of the 50-SMA, a two-month-old previous support line, and a downward-sloping resistance line from April 29, around 155.60-70, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Following that, the pair’s gradual rise toward the monthly high of nearly 158.00 and then to the recent multi-year peak surrounding 160.00 can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci ratio put a short-term floor under the USDJPY pair at around 153.30. In a case where the sellers keep control past the 153.30 support confluence, the Yen pair bears could again jostle with the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 151.70, also known as the Golden Fibonacci ratio. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s weakness past 151.70 will make it vulnerable to revisit the lows marked in March near 146.50. During the fall, the 150.00 threshold and the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio around 149.40 can act as intermediate halts.
USDJPY is likely to extend the latest corrective bounce, especially amid the Japanese holiday, but the upside room appears limited.
Gold grinds within the falling wedge ahead of the US NFPGold price brace for the second consecutive weekly loss despite downbeat US Dollar performance. In doing so, the precious metal seesaws between the 50-SMA and the 200-SMA while posting mild intraday losses within a two-week-old falling wedge bullish chart formation. That said, cautious sentiment ahead of the monthly US employment report and sluggish oscillators restrict the XAUUSD’s immediate moves within the bullish chart pattern. It should be noted that a downside break of the 200-SMA level of $2,289 will direct the sellers toward the stated wedge’s bottom line surrounding $2,278, a break of which will defy the bullish chart formation and can drag the commodity prices toward the early April swing high of around $2,265.
On the contrary, a convergence of the 50-SMA and the previously stated falling wedge’s top line, close to $2,319-20, appears a tough nut to crack for Gold buyers. Following that, the late April swing high of around $2,353 and the $2,400 threshold will lure the XAUUSD bulls. In a case where the Gold buyers remain confident past $2,400, the theoretical target of the falling wedge confirmation, near $2,440, will be in the spotlight.
Overall, Gold portrays bullish consolidation ahead of the key US employment data, despite the US Dollar’s downbeat performance.
GBPUSD bull’s journey to retake control appears long and bumpyGBPUSD grinds higher past 50% Fibonacci retracement of October 2023 to March 2024 upside as traders await more clues about Friday’s US employment report for April. In doing so, the Pound Sterling extends the late April rebound from a 61.8% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.2365, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio. That said, the bullish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line also underpin the Cable pair’s recovery moves targeting the 200-SMA hurdle of 1.2550. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.2550, a five-month-old support-turned-resistance line around 1.2570 will test the buyers before directing them to a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from March, close to 1.2600. Following that, the 100-SMA hurdle of 1.2650 will act as the final defense of the sellers ahead of giving up control.
Alternatively, the GBPUSD pair’s pullback could aim for the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios, respectively around 1.2465 and 1.2365. However, Pound Sterling’s fall past 1.2365 will make it vulnerable to drop toward the yearly low marked in April around 1.2300. It should be noted that the pair’s weakness past 1.2300 won’t hesitate to challenge the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2220 and the late 2023 low of around 1.2035.
Overall, the GBPUSD pair is likely to extend the latest recovery but there are multiple resistances to challenge the bull’s confidence.