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USDJPY retreats within rising wedge on US holidayUSDJPY snaps a three-day winning streak early Monday even as markets lack momentum amid holidays in the US and the UK. In doing so, the Yen pair pares the previous weekly gains as mixed concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next move join a cautious mood ahead of this week’s key inflation clues from Japan and the US. It should be observed that the USDJPY pair’s latest pullback takes place from the resistance line of a three-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. The retreat also gained support from the RSI (14) line’s fall from the overbought territory and the bearish MACD signals, which in turn suggests a continuation of the quote’s latest declines toward the 156.00 threshold. However, a convergence of the stated wedge’s bottom line and the 200-SMA, near the 155.25-15 region, closely followed by the 155.00 round figure, will be strong support for the bears to conquer before taking control. Should the pair remain weak past 155.00, a five-week-old rising support line near 152.6 and the monthly low of near 151.85 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s fresh recovery needs a clear rejection of the rising wedge bearish chart pattern by crossing the 157.30 immediate hurdle. Even so, the monthly high near 158.00, the 160.00 threshold, and the recent peak of near 160.20, as well as the year 1990 top surrounding 160.40, will offer intermediate halts during the quote’s further run-up. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness a pullback in prices but the downside remains elusive beyond 155.00.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold braces for biggest weekly loss of 2024, focus on $2,270Gold licks its wounds at the lowest level in a fortnight after falling in the last three consecutive days. With this, the precious metal becomes vulnerable to post the biggest weekly fall since late September 2023. The downside bias takes clues from a clear break of a nine-week-old support line, now immediate resistance near $2,340, as well as the bearish MACD signals and steady RSI. With this, the spot Gold price (XAUUSD) is likely to drop toward the 50-SMA support of $2,309. However, an ascending trend line from early April, close to $2,294 at the latest, will challenge the bullion bears afterward. It’s worth noting that a 3.5-month-old rising support line near $2,270 acts as the final defense of the buyers, a break of which will not hesitate to welcome the bears targeting the $2,200 threshold. On the contrary, the Gold buyers need validation from the $2,340 support-turned-resistance to retake control. Even so, the 10-SMA hurdle of $2,375 and the $2,400 psychological magent will challenge the XAUUSD bulls afterward. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past $2,400, the $2,430 and the $2,450 should allow the bulls to take a breather before pushing them toward the $2,500 round figure. Overall, the Gold price is likely to witness a short-term downside but remains in the bullish trend unless declining below $2,270.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bounces off 1.0810 support confluence ahead of key PMIsEURUSD portrays a corrective bounce from the lowest level in a week, snapping a three-day losing streak, as traders await the first readings of the Eurozone and the US PMIs for May early Thursday. In doing so, the Euro pair also takes a U-turn from a convergence of the 100-SMA and previous resistance line stretched from late December 2023, close to 1.0810. The recovery also takes clues from the upbeat RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals, allowing buyers to remain hopeful. With this, the quote is likely to extend the latest rebound toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2023 to April 2024 downturn, near 1.0870. However, a 4.5-month-old descending resistance line surrounding 1.0890 and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio near 1.0940 could test the pair’s further upside. It’s worth noting that the highs marked in March and mid-January, respectively near 1.0980 and 1.1000, act as the final defense of the bears. Alternatively, the EURUSD bears need validation from the EU/US PMIs, the 1.0810 support confluence, and the 1.0800 threshold to keep the reins. Following that, the Euro pair’s gradual decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0730 and then to February’s bottom of around 1.0695 can’t be ruled out. In a case where the sellers dominate past 1.0695, the prices become vulnerable to slump toward the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600. To sum up, EURUSD is likely to witness recovery but the upside move hinges on a successful break of 1.0890 and the scheduled data points.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD jumps on RBNZ’s hawkish halt, 0.6140-45 hurdle tests bullNZDUSD prints the biggest daily jump in more than a week, as well as snaps a two-day losing streak, on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish halt. That said, the RBNZ held the benchmark rates unchanged, as expected, but upwardly revised the forward rate guidance. The same pushed back the rate cut and signaled expectations of a rate hike during the year. As a result, the Kiwi pair rallied to the 2.5-month high after the RBNZ announcements before retreating from 0.6152, up more than half a percent intraday by the press time. In addition to the hawkish RBNZ concerns, the NZDUSD pair’s successful trading beyond the previous resistance line stretched from late December 2023, bullish MACD signals and the upbeat RSI (14) line also keeps the buyers hopeful. However, a daily closing beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from January, near 0.6140 by the press time, becomes necessary for trading conviction. Adjacent to the 0.6140 hurdle is the previous weekly high and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s late 2023 upside, near 0.6145. Hence, the bulls need validation from 0.6140-45 to keep the reins. Following that, the double tops marked in February and March around 0.6220 and 23.6% Fibonacci ratio near 0.6230, followed by the 0.6280-85 resistance region, will become the upside targets. On the contrary, a convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a three-week-old rising trend line, around 0.6075-70 at the latest, restricts the NZDUSD pair’s short-term downside ahead of the previously stated resistance-turned-support line near 0.6060. In a case where the Kiwi pair remains bearish past 0.6060, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near the 0.6000 threshold, will act as the final defense of the bears before directing the prices toward the yearly low of near 0.5850. Overall, the Kiwi pair is likely to remain firmer unless declining back beneath the 0.6060 level. However, fresh buying should wait for a clear upside break of 0.6145.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY confirms inverse head & shoulders during four-day uptrendUSDJPY rises to the highest level in a week while crossing a downward-sloping resistance line from late April, now immediate support near 156.10, amid a four-day winning streak early Tuesday. In doing so, the Yen pair confirms an inverse head and shoulders bullish chart pattern by extending the previous week’s rebound from the 200-SMA. It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals and an upward-sloping RSI (14) line, not overbought, also keep the pair buyers hopeful. With this, the quote approaches the mid-month peak surrounding 156.80 before challenging the monthly high of around 158.00. Following that, the 160.00 threshold, the yearly high of 160.20 and the year 1990 top of 160.40 can test the bulls during their run-up toward the theoretical target of the aforementioned inverse head and shoulders bullish formation, namely 162.50. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s retreat remains elusive unless breaking the neckline of the stated bullish chart formation, close to 156.10. In a case where the Yen pair drops beneath the 156.10 resistance-turned-support, it will defy the inverse head and shoulders and can quickly revisit the 200-SMA support of near 154.60. It should be observed, however, that the bullish bias remains intact as far as the pair stays beyond a two-month-old ascending support line, near 152.45 as we write. Overall, the USDJPY pair braces for a fresh record high while confirming a bullish chart formation. Any pullback, backed by the downbeat US data and softer yields, remains unimportant until the pair exceeds 152.45.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls jostle with key upside hurdles within rising wedgeGBPUSD struggles to extend the biggest weekly gains since early March while confronting a five-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.2700-2710 early Monday. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes clues from the overbought RSI (14) and the sluggish MACD signals while hovering near the upper end of the one-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside clearance of 1.2710 won’t be an open invitation to the Cable buyers as the stated wedge’s top-line surrounding 1.2720 will test the upside momentum. Following that, the quote’s advances toward the late March high of near 1.2800 and then to the yearly peak of around 1.2895 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the oscillators suggest a pullback in the GBPUSD price and hence a horizontal resistance area comprising the tops marked since early May, close to 1.2635-45, gains the market’s attention. In a case where the Cable prices drop beneath the 1.2635, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of March-April fall, surrounding the 1.2600 threshold, will lure the sellers. Above all, a convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the aforementioned rising wedge’s lower line, close to 1.2565-60, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers, a break of which will confirm the bearish chart pattern suggesting a theoretical fall targeting the area surrounding mid-1.2100s. In summary, the GBPUSD pair will likely witness a pullback in the prices but the bears need validation from the 1.2565-60 and the UK inflation/PMI data.
by MTradingGlobal
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USDJPY pokes key resistance, US inflation, Japan's GDP eyedUSDJPY jostles with a fortnight-old horizontal resistance as buyers turn cautious ahead of this week’s US inflation and the first readings of Japan’s Q1 2024 GDP. In doing so, the Yen pair struggles to extend the previous week’s recovery from the 50-SMA. That said, the near-50 RSI levels join the receding strength of the bearish MACD signals to suggest a continuation of the quote’s latest rebound within the bullish trend channel comprising levels marked since late 2023. It’s worth noting, however, that a clear upside break of the immediate 155.20-156.00 resistance zone becomes necessary for the bulls to retake control. In that case, the upper line of the previously stated bullish channel, close to 159.00 by the press time, will precede the 160.00 psychological magnet and the year 1990’s peak of 160.40 to lure the buyers. Meanwhile, softer US inflation and upbeat Japan growth numbers could trigger the USDJPY pair’s retreat toward the mid-April swing highs around 154.80. However, the 50-SMA and the aforementioned bullish channel’s bottom line, respectively near 152.50 and 152.00, could challenge the Yen pair sellers afterward. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 152.00, the 150.00 threshold will act as the final defense of the buyers. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains bullish, despite the latest inaction, but the upside room remains limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls keep control ahead of ECB Minutes, US dataEURUSD pares the biggest daily gains of the week while posting mild losses early Friday. Even so, the Euro pair remains on the way to posting a four-week uptrend as traders prepare for the European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, also known as the ECB Minutes, as well as the preliminary readings of the US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations. It should be noted that upbeat RSI and MACD conditions keep the buyers hopeful but a downward-sloping resistance line from early March, close to 1.0790 at the latest, guards the immediate upside of the pair. Apart from the oscillators like RSI and MACD, the looming “Golden Cross”, a bullish moving average crossover, also keep the buyers hopeful. However, a clear upside of the 5.5-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0825 as we write, becomes necessary for the bulls to retake control. In that case, the gradual run-up toward March’s high of 1.0980 and then to the 1.1000 threshold can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a pullback move remains uninteresting beyond the 50-SMA support of 1.0735. Following that, the lows marked in April and February, respectively around 1.0725 and 1.0695, could test the EURUSD bears before directing them to the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600. It’s worth noting that the Euro pair’s sustained weakness past 1.0600 makes it vulnerable to challenge the previous yearly bottom surrounding 1.0450-45 but the same needs validation from the strong US fundamentals, as well as downbeat EU catalysts. Overall, EURUSD bulls are likely to retake control after staying off the grid for some time. However, the fundamentals need to back the pair’s bullish technical details to support the upside bias.
by MTradingGlobal
100-SMA prods GBPUSD bears on BoE Super ThursdayGBPUSD stays defensive at the lowest level in a week, snapping a two-day losing streak, as the pair traders await the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Announcements, as well as the quarterly monetary policy report that makes the day a “Super Thursday”. It’s worth noting that the 100-SMA puts a short-term trading floor under the prices near 1.2480, especially amid the downbeat RSI suggesting a pause in the previous fall. However, the bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained downside break of a two-week-old support line, now immediate resistance surrounding 1.2515, and clear trading beneath a downward-sloping trend line resistance stretched since mid-March, at 1.2585 at the latest, keeps the sellers hopeful. Even if the Pound Sterling gains support from the BoE and rises past 1.2585, the monthly high of 1.2634 will be the last defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 100-SMA support of 1.2480, as well as the BoE’s inability to convince the GBPUSD bulls, will resume a south run targeting the 1.2400 threshold. In a case where the Cable bears keep the reins past 1.2400, the yearly bottom marked in April surrounding 1.2300 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s March-May moves, near 1.2265, will be in the spotlight ahead of the late 2023 bottom of near 1.2067. Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains in a bearish trend on the BoE Super Thursday despite the latest consolidation. Hence, even a surprise rebound should not be considered a bullish sign.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold keeps buyers in game despite recent inaction, $2,338 eyedGold price lacks bullish momentum despite staying positive on a weekly basis, after a two-week downtrend. While bearish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line suggest a continuation of the metal’s recent sideways performance, a one-month-old falling wedge bullish chart formation keeps the buyers hopeful. It’s worth noting that the 21-SMA resistance of $2,338 will act as an extra filter toward the north, in addition to the stated wedge’s upper line surrounding $2,322. Following that, the quote’s run-up toward the $2,400 threshold and then to the latest peak of around $2,431 can’t be ruled out. In a case where the XAUUSD remains firmer past $2,431, the bullion buyers can aim for the theoretical target of falling wedge confirmation, close to $2,480 in this case. On the flip side, the $2,300 round figure and $2,285 restrict the short-term downside of the Gold price ahead of the aforementioned wedge’s bottom line, near $2,275 by the press time. Should the precious metal drop beneath the $2,275 support, it defies the bullish chart formation and can direct the XAUUSD sellers toward the 50-SMA support of $2,251. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the buyers should remain hopeful of witnessing a corrective bounce, even during the gradual fall, unless the quote breaks an ascending trend line support stretched from the mid-February, around $2,219 as we write. Overall, the Gold price is likely to reverse the previous losses but a sustained upside clearance of $2,338 is a must for bulls to retake control.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD portrays “fakeout” on RBA’s status quoOn Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its monetary policy unchanged, as expected, and dragged the AUDUSD pair back from an intraday high. With this, the Aussie pair defies Friday’s breakout of a four-month-old descending resistance line, terming it the “false breakout” or “fakeout”. In addition to the fakeout, the RSI’s retreat from the overbought territory and an impending bear cross on the MACD also tease the sellers. However, a clear downside break of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line surrounding 0.6600 and RBA Governor Michele Bullock's dovish remarks are needed for the bears to retake control. In that case, the pair’s quick fall toward 0.6570 and the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level near 0.6530 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth mentioning that the seller’s dominance past 0.6530 depends on the ability to break a three-week-old rising support line, close to 0.6515 at the latest. Meanwhile, an area comprising multiple levels marked since early January, near 0.6645-40, guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair. Following that, March’s peak of 0.6667 and the 0.6700 threshold will challenge the buyers. If the Aussie pair remains firmer beyond the 0.6700 hurdle, 0.6730, 0.6780 and the 0.6800 round figure could test the upside momentum before directing the bulls toward the late 2023 high of 0.6871. Overall, the AUDUSD pair signals a pullback price move, but the bearish momentum will likely remain tepid unless fundamental support is gained.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY rebound appears elusive below 155.70USDJPY bounces off a one-month low to snap a three-day winning streak early Monday. In doing so, the Yen pair takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of its March-April upside amid a nearly oversold RSI. Given the receding bearish strength of the MACD signals and the quote’s rebound from the key Fibonacci ratio, as well as the RSI (14) line’s recovery from the oversold territory, the latest run-up in price is likely to prevail for a bit. The same highlights the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 155.00 for short-term buyers. However, a convergence of the 50-SMA, a two-month-old previous support line, and a downward-sloping resistance line from April 29, around 155.60-70, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Following that, the pair’s gradual rise toward the monthly high of nearly 158.00 and then to the recent multi-year peak surrounding 160.00 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci ratio put a short-term floor under the USDJPY pair at around 153.30. In a case where the sellers keep control past the 153.30 support confluence, the Yen pair bears could again jostle with the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 151.70, also known as the Golden Fibonacci ratio. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s weakness past 151.70 will make it vulnerable to revisit the lows marked in March near 146.50. During the fall, the 150.00 threshold and the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio around 149.40 can act as intermediate halts. USDJPY is likely to extend the latest corrective bounce, especially amid the Japanese holiday, but the upside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold grinds within the falling wedge ahead of the US NFPGold price brace for the second consecutive weekly loss despite downbeat US Dollar performance. In doing so, the precious metal seesaws between the 50-SMA and the 200-SMA while posting mild intraday losses within a two-week-old falling wedge bullish chart formation. That said, cautious sentiment ahead of the monthly US employment report and sluggish oscillators restrict the XAUUSD’s immediate moves within the bullish chart pattern. It should be noted that a downside break of the 200-SMA level of $2,289 will direct the sellers toward the stated wedge’s bottom line surrounding $2,278, a break of which will defy the bullish chart formation and can drag the commodity prices toward the early April swing high of around $2,265. On the contrary, a convergence of the 50-SMA and the previously stated falling wedge’s top line, close to $2,319-20, appears a tough nut to crack for Gold buyers. Following that, the late April swing high of around $2,353 and the $2,400 threshold will lure the XAUUSD bulls. In a case where the Gold buyers remain confident past $2,400, the theoretical target of the falling wedge confirmation, near $2,440, will be in the spotlight. Overall, Gold portrays bullish consolidation ahead of the key US employment data, despite the US Dollar’s downbeat performance.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bull’s journey to retake control appears long and bumpyGBPUSD grinds higher past 50% Fibonacci retracement of October 2023 to March 2024 upside as traders await more clues about Friday’s US employment report for April. In doing so, the Pound Sterling extends the late April rebound from a 61.8% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.2365, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio. That said, the bullish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line also underpin the Cable pair’s recovery moves targeting the 200-SMA hurdle of 1.2550. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.2550, a five-month-old support-turned-resistance line around 1.2570 will test the buyers before directing them to a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from March, close to 1.2600. Following that, the 100-SMA hurdle of 1.2650 will act as the final defense of the sellers ahead of giving up control. Alternatively, the GBPUSD pair’s pullback could aim for the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios, respectively around 1.2465 and 1.2365. However, Pound Sterling’s fall past 1.2365 will make it vulnerable to drop toward the yearly low marked in April around 1.2300. It should be noted that the pair’s weakness past 1.2300 won’t hesitate to challenge the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2220 and the late 2023 low of around 1.2035. Overall, the GBPUSD pair is likely to extend the latest recovery but there are multiple resistances to challenge the bull’s confidence.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD drops toward key support line near 1.0600 on Fed DayEURUSD remains pressured at the lowest level in a week, extending the late April’s retreat from 20-SMA and a six-month-old support-turned-resistance, as traders await the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcements. The Euro pair’s weakness also takes clues from an impending bear cross on the MACD and an absence of oversold RSI conditions. With this, the quote is likely to extend the latest fall toward an ascending support line stretched from early October 2023, close to 1.0610 at the latest. Following that, the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600 and multiple lows registered during late 2023 near 1.0520 and 1.0490 will test the bears before directing them toward the previous yearly low of 1.0448. Alternatively, the US Fed’s inability to inspire the EURUSD bulls, mainly amid the high hopes, could trigger a quick recovery in the pair prices toward the 20-SMA hurdle of 1.0710. However, the quote’s further upside needs validation from the previous support line stretched from early November 2023 surrounding 1.0740. It should be noted that a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50-SMA, near the 1.0800 threshold at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the buyers, a clear break of which will enable them to confront the final defense of the sellers, namely a downward-sloping resistance line from December 2023, near 1.0865 as we write. To sum up, the EURUSD is on the way to testing the key support line as market players await the FOMC verdict. However, high hopes from the US central bank and a limited downside room for the pair suggest hardships for the sellers past 1.0600.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY reverses pullback from 34-year high on mixed Japan dataA mixed bag of Japan statistics triggered the USDJPY pair’s fresh run-up early Tuesday. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies mostly downbeat employment and activity data from the Asian major while reversing the previous day’s retreat from the highest level since 1990. Also favoring the upside bias are the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s U-turn from a seven-week-old rising support line, close to 154.70 by the press time. With this, the risk-barometer pair is likely approaching the 160.00 threshold. However, the overbought RSI conditions could challenge the buyers around the recent multi-year peak of 160.20. Even if the pair remains firmer past 160.20, the year 1990’s high of 160.40 and an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from late June 2023, around 161.60 at the latest, can prod the bulls. On the contrary, USDJPY sellers need validation from the aforementioned support line from early March surrounding 154.70, as well as FOMC and the US NFP, to retake control even for a short term. Following that, an 18-month-old previous resistance line near 151.75 and the bottom line of a 10-month-long rising wedge bearish chart pattern, around 150.80, will be in the spotlight. In a case where the Yen pair remains bearish past 150.80, the 150.00 psychological magnet and the 200-SMA level of 148.20 will act as the final defense of the buyers. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains bullish but the upside room appears limited as traders await this week’s key data/events, namely the monetary policy announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the monthly US employment report.
by MTradingGlobal
200-EMA tests AUDUSD bulls as Fed-NFP week beginsAUDUSD remains on the front foot at the highest level in nearly a fortnight, after jumping the most on a week since December 2023, during the early hours of the key week comprising the monetary policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US monthly employment report. In doing so, the risk-barometer pair justifies the upside break of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), bullish MACD signals, and upbeat RSI (14) conditions. Given the US Dollar’s preparations for top-tier data/events, coupled with the bullish technical details, the Aussie pair is likely to overcome the immediate upside hurdle, namely the 200-EMA level surrounding 0.6570. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 0.6615 at the latest, will precede a 3.5-month-old horizontal resistance zone of 0.6640-50 to challenge the bulls. Meanwhile, AUDUSD sellers remain off the table unless the quote stays beyond the 100-EMA immediate support of 0.6542. Even if the quote slips beneath the nearly EMA support, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October-December upside, close to 0.6500, and February’s low of 0.6442 will stop the bears from taking control. In a case where the Aussie pair remains bearish past 0.6442, the yearly low marked on April 19 around 0.6360 will be in the spotlight. Overall, the AUDUSD pair gains upside traction ahead of the key US catalysts but the bulls should remain cautious beneath 0.6650.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY refreshes 34-year high on BoJ’s dovish haltUSDJPY prints a three-day winning streak while rising to a fresh high since 1990 as it justifies the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) dovish halt. That said, the BoJ kept its benchmark rates unchanged, as expected, but omitted the mention of bond buying operations which were anticipated to suggest the Japanese central bank’s hawkish turn. With this, the Yen pair pokes an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from early December, around 155.90 at the latest. Given the overbought RSI conditions and the recently easing bullish bias of the MACD, the quote is likely to witness a pullback, which in turn highlights the 155.00 threshold and the mid-month peak surrounding 154.80. However, the bottom line of a six-week-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, close to 154.20 as we write, will be the key to watch for the seller’s entry. In a case where the pair remains weak past 154.20, a six-month-old horizontal support line near 151.70 will precede an area comprising multiple levels marked since early February, around 150.90-80, to challenge the pair bears. Above all, the USDJPY pair buyers should remain hopeful unless witnessing a daily closing beneath an ascending trend line from late December 2023, near 150.30 at the latest. On the contrary, a successful upside break of the aforementioned multi-month-old resistance line surrounding 155.90 will need validation from the top line of a short-term rising wedge bearish chart formation, near 156.10. Should the USDJPY pair buyers ignore overbought RSI and keep the reins past 156.10, the odds of witnessing a gradual run-up toward the 160.00 psychological magnet and then to the year 1990 peak of 160.40 can’t be ruled out. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains bullish beyond 150.30 but a short-term pullback appears overdue.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers need validation from $2,298 and US GDPGold price portrays a four-day losing streak as market players brace for the first readings of the US first quarter (Q1) 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In doing so, the XAUUSD justifies the previous day’s downside break of a $2,324 support confluence, now resistance, comprising the 21-SMA and a two-month-old upward-sloping trend line. It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) line’s retreat from the overbought territory joins the bearish MACD signals to add strength to the downside bias. However, a clear downside break of the previous resistance line stretched from early March, around $2,298 by the press time, becomes necessary for the bullion sellers to tighten the grip. Additionally, a strong print of the US Q1 GDP could also convince the precious metal bears to take action. Following that, the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s February-April upside, respectively near $2,262 and $2,208, will be in the spotlight ahead of the 50-SMA support of $2,198. Alternatively, downbeat prints of the US Q1 GDP could trigger the Gold Price recovery that will aim for the $2,324 support-turned-resistance confluence. In a case where the XAUUSD remains firmer past $2,324, the $2,350 and the $2,400 psychological magnets will lure the buyers. However, a fortnight-old descending resistance line surrounding $2,405 will precede the recent swing highs of near $2,418 and $2,432 to challenge the precious metal’s further advances. It’s worth noting that the commodity’s successful trading beyond $2,432 won’t hesitate to flash the $2,400 threshold. Overall, Gold price remains pressured ahead of the key data but the quote’s further downside needs validation.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD approaches 200-SMA hurdle on strong Australia inflationAUDUSD rises to the highest level in a week, up for the third consecutive day, as Australia Inflation numbers for March defend hawkish bias about the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and underpin the Australian Dollar (AUD) strength. However, the overbought RSI could join the 200-SMA hurdle of 0.6535 to cap short-term upside of the Aussie pair. Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 0.6615 by the press time, will precede a 15-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6640-45 to challenge the buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6645, the previous monthly high of near 0.6670 will act as the final defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s downturn from December 2023, close to 0.6480, put a short-term floor under the AUDUSD prices. Also acting as an immediate downside support is a one-week-long rising support line near 0.6460. It should be noted that February’s bottom of 0.6440 will act as an intermediate halt during the quote’s weakness past 0.6460 before targeting the yearly low marked the last week around 0.6360. Overall, AUDUSD justifies upbeat Australia inflation but the pair’s further upside appears challenging.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD seesaws within bear flag ahead of EU/US PMI for AprilEURUSD struggles to defend the previous week’s rebound from a yearly low as traders await preliminary readings of the Eurozone and the US PMI data for April. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, sluggish prints of the RSI (14) and the MACD signals also suggest a lack of momentum. Even so, the sellers appear hopeful as the major currency pair stays within a fortnight-old bear flag chart formation. Additionally favoring the Euro bears is the quote’s sustained trading beneath the 10-week-old horizontal region, previous support surrounding 1.0700-690, as well as a downward-sloping support-turned-resistance line stretched from late February, close to 1.0680 at the latest. Even if the major currency pair manages to defy the bearish chart formation by crossing the 1.0705 upside hurdle, the 200-SMA level of 1.0810 and a falling resistance line from early March, near 1.0840 as we write, will act as the final defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. Alternatively, EURUSD sellers should wait for a clear downside break of the 1.0620 for fresh entry as it will confirm the bear flag chart formation. Following that, the monthly low of 1.0600 and the previous yearly low surrounding 1.0445 will act as buffers during the quote’s theoretical south-run suggesting 1.0315 as a target. It’s worth noting that early 2023 swing lows near 1.0515 and 1.0480 become extra downside filters for the bears to watch during the Euro’s theoretical fall between 1.0620 and 1.0315. Overall, EURUSD is likely to remain bearish unless crossing 1.0705. However, the sellers need strong US PMI, as well as too weak activity data from the bloc, to confirm the bear flag formation suggesting a major decline in prices.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD rebounds from Golden Fibonacci ratio, “Falling Wedge” eyeGBPUSD bears take a breather after a two-week downtrend as the quote bounces off the lowest level since mid-November 2023. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its run-up from October 2023 to February 2024, also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”, while justifying the traders’ consolidation ahead of this week’s key UK/US catalysts. That said, the oversold RSI line and a receding bearish bias on the MACD favor the quote’s further rebound, which in turn highlights the monthly falling wedge bullish chart formation. However, the pair’s successful trading beyond 1.2440 becomes necessary to lure the buyers. Even so, a 4.5-month-old previous support line and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 1.2545 and 1.2560, will be the key upside hurdles to test the Cable’s north-run. On the contrary, the aforementioned key Fibonacci retracement support restricts the immediate downside of the GBPUSD pair to around 1.2360. Following that, the stated falling wedge’s bottom line, near 1.2345 at the latest, quickly followed by the October 2023 peak of 1.2337, could act as the final defense of the Pound Sterling buyers before surrendering to the sellers. In that case, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.2220 will be in the spotlight before the late 2023 bottoms around 1.2070 and 1.2037. Overall, the GBPUSD pair’s corrective bounce appears overdue but the road toward the north will be long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays pressured toward 1.0600 amid risk-aversionEURUSD extends the previous day’s pullback from a four-month-old support-turned-resistance as sour sentiment underpins the US Dollar demand early Friday. In doing so, the Euro pair takes clues from the bearish MACD signals while paying little attention to the RSI (14) line suggesting a weak support for the current momentum. With this, the quote appears well set to revisit the latest trough surrounding the 1.0600. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s October-December upside, near 1.0595, will join the downbeat RSI conditions to challenge the bears afterward. Should the sellers keep the reins past 1.0595, 1.0520 and 1.0495 may act as intermediate halts before directing the prices toward the previous yearly bottom surrounding 1.0450. Meanwhile, the aforementioned previous support line from December 2023, close to 1.0675, guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair ahead of the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level near 1.0690. In a case where the Euro pair rises past 1.0690, and also crosses the 1.0700 threshold, the early-month bottom around 1.0725 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0800 will challenge the upside moves. Above all, the bull’s dominance needs validation from a convergence of the four-month-old resistance line and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, around 1.0880. To sum up, the EURUSD pair is likely to remain weak but the room toward the south appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal