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USDJPY reverses pullback from 34-year high on mixed Japan dataA mixed bag of Japan statistics triggered the USDJPY pair’s fresh run-up early Tuesday. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies mostly downbeat employment and activity data from the Asian major while reversing the previous day’s retreat from the highest level since 1990. Also favoring the upside bias are the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s U-turn from a seven-week-old rising support line, close to 154.70 by the press time. With this, the risk-barometer pair is likely approaching the 160.00 threshold. However, the overbought RSI conditions could challenge the buyers around the recent multi-year peak of 160.20. Even if the pair remains firmer past 160.20, the year 1990’s high of 160.40 and an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from late June 2023, around 161.60 at the latest, can prod the bulls. On the contrary, USDJPY sellers need validation from the aforementioned support line from early March surrounding 154.70, as well as FOMC and the US NFP, to retake control even for a short term. Following that, an 18-month-old previous resistance line near 151.75 and the bottom line of a 10-month-long rising wedge bearish chart pattern, around 150.80, will be in the spotlight. In a case where the Yen pair remains bearish past 150.80, the 150.00 psychological magnet and the 200-SMA level of 148.20 will act as the final defense of the buyers. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains bullish but the upside room appears limited as traders await this week’s key data/events, namely the monetary policy announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the monthly US employment report.
by MTradingGlobal
200-EMA tests AUDUSD bulls as Fed-NFP week beginsAUDUSD remains on the front foot at the highest level in nearly a fortnight, after jumping the most on a week since December 2023, during the early hours of the key week comprising the monetary policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US monthly employment report. In doing so, the risk-barometer pair justifies the upside break of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), bullish MACD signals, and upbeat RSI (14) conditions. Given the US Dollar’s preparations for top-tier data/events, coupled with the bullish technical details, the Aussie pair is likely to overcome the immediate upside hurdle, namely the 200-EMA level surrounding 0.6570. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 0.6615 at the latest, will precede a 3.5-month-old horizontal resistance zone of 0.6640-50 to challenge the bulls. Meanwhile, AUDUSD sellers remain off the table unless the quote stays beyond the 100-EMA immediate support of 0.6542. Even if the quote slips beneath the nearly EMA support, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October-December upside, close to 0.6500, and February’s low of 0.6442 will stop the bears from taking control. In a case where the Aussie pair remains bearish past 0.6442, the yearly low marked on April 19 around 0.6360 will be in the spotlight. Overall, the AUDUSD pair gains upside traction ahead of the key US catalysts but the bulls should remain cautious beneath 0.6650.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY refreshes 34-year high on BoJ’s dovish haltUSDJPY prints a three-day winning streak while rising to a fresh high since 1990 as it justifies the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) dovish halt. That said, the BoJ kept its benchmark rates unchanged, as expected, but omitted the mention of bond buying operations which were anticipated to suggest the Japanese central bank’s hawkish turn. With this, the Yen pair pokes an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from early December, around 155.90 at the latest. Given the overbought RSI conditions and the recently easing bullish bias of the MACD, the quote is likely to witness a pullback, which in turn highlights the 155.00 threshold and the mid-month peak surrounding 154.80. However, the bottom line of a six-week-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, close to 154.20 as we write, will be the key to watch for the seller’s entry. In a case where the pair remains weak past 154.20, a six-month-old horizontal support line near 151.70 will precede an area comprising multiple levels marked since early February, around 150.90-80, to challenge the pair bears. Above all, the USDJPY pair buyers should remain hopeful unless witnessing a daily closing beneath an ascending trend line from late December 2023, near 150.30 at the latest. On the contrary, a successful upside break of the aforementioned multi-month-old resistance line surrounding 155.90 will need validation from the top line of a short-term rising wedge bearish chart formation, near 156.10. Should the USDJPY pair buyers ignore overbought RSI and keep the reins past 156.10, the odds of witnessing a gradual run-up toward the 160.00 psychological magnet and then to the year 1990 peak of 160.40 can’t be ruled out. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains bullish beyond 150.30 but a short-term pullback appears overdue.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers need validation from $2,298 and US GDPGold price portrays a four-day losing streak as market players brace for the first readings of the US first quarter (Q1) 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In doing so, the XAUUSD justifies the previous day’s downside break of a $2,324 support confluence, now resistance, comprising the 21-SMA and a two-month-old upward-sloping trend line. It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) line’s retreat from the overbought territory joins the bearish MACD signals to add strength to the downside bias. However, a clear downside break of the previous resistance line stretched from early March, around $2,298 by the press time, becomes necessary for the bullion sellers to tighten the grip. Additionally, a strong print of the US Q1 GDP could also convince the precious metal bears to take action. Following that, the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s February-April upside, respectively near $2,262 and $2,208, will be in the spotlight ahead of the 50-SMA support of $2,198. Alternatively, downbeat prints of the US Q1 GDP could trigger the Gold Price recovery that will aim for the $2,324 support-turned-resistance confluence. In a case where the XAUUSD remains firmer past $2,324, the $2,350 and the $2,400 psychological magnets will lure the buyers. However, a fortnight-old descending resistance line surrounding $2,405 will precede the recent swing highs of near $2,418 and $2,432 to challenge the precious metal’s further advances. It’s worth noting that the commodity’s successful trading beyond $2,432 won’t hesitate to flash the $2,400 threshold. Overall, Gold price remains pressured ahead of the key data but the quote’s further downside needs validation.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD approaches 200-SMA hurdle on strong Australia inflationAUDUSD rises to the highest level in a week, up for the third consecutive day, as Australia Inflation numbers for March defend hawkish bias about the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and underpin the Australian Dollar (AUD) strength. However, the overbought RSI could join the 200-SMA hurdle of 0.6535 to cap short-term upside of the Aussie pair. Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 0.6615 by the press time, will precede a 15-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6640-45 to challenge the buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6645, the previous monthly high of near 0.6670 will act as the final defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s downturn from December 2023, close to 0.6480, put a short-term floor under the AUDUSD prices. Also acting as an immediate downside support is a one-week-long rising support line near 0.6460. It should be noted that February’s bottom of 0.6440 will act as an intermediate halt during the quote’s weakness past 0.6460 before targeting the yearly low marked the last week around 0.6360. Overall, AUDUSD justifies upbeat Australia inflation but the pair’s further upside appears challenging.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD seesaws within bear flag ahead of EU/US PMI for AprilEURUSD struggles to defend the previous week’s rebound from a yearly low as traders await preliminary readings of the Eurozone and the US PMI data for April. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, sluggish prints of the RSI (14) and the MACD signals also suggest a lack of momentum. Even so, the sellers appear hopeful as the major currency pair stays within a fortnight-old bear flag chart formation. Additionally favoring the Euro bears is the quote’s sustained trading beneath the 10-week-old horizontal region, previous support surrounding 1.0700-690, as well as a downward-sloping support-turned-resistance line stretched from late February, close to 1.0680 at the latest. Even if the major currency pair manages to defy the bearish chart formation by crossing the 1.0705 upside hurdle, the 200-SMA level of 1.0810 and a falling resistance line from early March, near 1.0840 as we write, will act as the final defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. Alternatively, EURUSD sellers should wait for a clear downside break of the 1.0620 for fresh entry as it will confirm the bear flag chart formation. Following that, the monthly low of 1.0600 and the previous yearly low surrounding 1.0445 will act as buffers during the quote’s theoretical south-run suggesting 1.0315 as a target. It’s worth noting that early 2023 swing lows near 1.0515 and 1.0480 become extra downside filters for the bears to watch during the Euro’s theoretical fall between 1.0620 and 1.0315. Overall, EURUSD is likely to remain bearish unless crossing 1.0705. However, the sellers need strong US PMI, as well as too weak activity data from the bloc, to confirm the bear flag formation suggesting a major decline in prices.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD rebounds from Golden Fibonacci ratio, “Falling Wedge” eyeGBPUSD bears take a breather after a two-week downtrend as the quote bounces off the lowest level since mid-November 2023. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its run-up from October 2023 to February 2024, also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”, while justifying the traders’ consolidation ahead of this week’s key UK/US catalysts. That said, the oversold RSI line and a receding bearish bias on the MACD favor the quote’s further rebound, which in turn highlights the monthly falling wedge bullish chart formation. However, the pair’s successful trading beyond 1.2440 becomes necessary to lure the buyers. Even so, a 4.5-month-old previous support line and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 1.2545 and 1.2560, will be the key upside hurdles to test the Cable’s north-run. On the contrary, the aforementioned key Fibonacci retracement support restricts the immediate downside of the GBPUSD pair to around 1.2360. Following that, the stated falling wedge’s bottom line, near 1.2345 at the latest, quickly followed by the October 2023 peak of 1.2337, could act as the final defense of the Pound Sterling buyers before surrendering to the sellers. In that case, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.2220 will be in the spotlight before the late 2023 bottoms around 1.2070 and 1.2037. Overall, the GBPUSD pair’s corrective bounce appears overdue but the road toward the north will be long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays pressured toward 1.0600 amid risk-aversionEURUSD extends the previous day’s pullback from a four-month-old support-turned-resistance as sour sentiment underpins the US Dollar demand early Friday. In doing so, the Euro pair takes clues from the bearish MACD signals while paying little attention to the RSI (14) line suggesting a weak support for the current momentum. With this, the quote appears well set to revisit the latest trough surrounding the 1.0600. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s October-December upside, near 1.0595, will join the downbeat RSI conditions to challenge the bears afterward. Should the sellers keep the reins past 1.0595, 1.0520 and 1.0495 may act as intermediate halts before directing the prices toward the previous yearly bottom surrounding 1.0450. Meanwhile, the aforementioned previous support line from December 2023, close to 1.0675, guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair ahead of the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level near 1.0690. In a case where the Euro pair rises past 1.0690, and also crosses the 1.0700 threshold, the early-month bottom around 1.0725 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0800 will challenge the upside moves. Above all, the bull’s dominance needs validation from a convergence of the four-month-old resistance line and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, around 1.0880. To sum up, the EURUSD pair is likely to remain weak but the room toward the south appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD extends recovery on mixed data but stays on bear's radarAUDUSD prints mild gains around mid-0.6400s despite mixed outcomes of the Aussie employment report and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) quarterly Bulletin. In doing so, the risk-barometer pair also cheers the US Dollar’s pullback, as well as cautious optimism in the market, while defending the previous day’s rebound from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside. It’s worth noting, however, that bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beneath the support-turned-line stretched from early November, close to 0.6510 at the latest, challenge the buyers. Even if the pair manages to remain firmer past 0.6510, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.6550 and a 3.5-month-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding 0.6640-50 will be crucial for the bulls to cross before retaking control. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s fresh selling could aim for the retest of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 0.6380. Following that, the nearly oversold RSI (14) and an ascending support trend line stretched from late 2022, around 0.6350 at the latest, will be the key test for the bears. Should the quote remain weak past 0.6350, the odds of witnessing a slower grind toward the previous yearly low of 0.6270 and the year 2022 bottom of 0.6170 can’t be ruled out. Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s latest rebound could be considered an opportunity for fresh selling. However, the fundamentals need to be watched carefully before taking positions.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY hovers around multi-year high as bulls run out of steamUSDJPY edges higher past 154.00 while making rounds to the 34-year top marked the previous day, mildly bid within a four-month-old rising trend channel early Tuesday. In doing so, Yen pair buyers take a breather at the multi-year high as the overbought RSI (14) line joins sluggish market conditions. It’s worth noting, however, that the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beyond a 6.5-month-old ascending resistance line, now support around 151.85, keep the bulls in the driver's seat. That said, the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the pair’s December-March moves and the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 153.05 and 152.00, restrict the quote’s immediate downside. Following that, a two-month-old horizontal support zone near 150.90-80 and the aforementioned bullish channel’s support line, close to 149.60 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the pair buyers, a successful break of which could give control to the bears. Meanwhile, the 78.6% FE level surrounding 154.85 guards the immediate upside of the USDJPY pair ahead of the multi-month-old rising trend channel’s top line, near 155.20 as we write. It’s worth mentioning that the Yen pair’s sustained run-up beyond 155.20 will need validation from the June 1990 peak of 155.80 to keep the bulls in control. Following that, the pair’s gradual advances toward the 100% FE level of 157.15 can’t be ruled out. That said, the 156.00 and the 157.00 round figures will act as intermediate halts during the rise. Overall, the USDJPY pair buyers appear exhausted, suggesting a pullback in the prices, but the broadly bullish trend is likely to remain intact unless the quote breaks the 149.60 key support.
by MTradingGlobal
Monthly bullish megaphone keeps Gold buyers hopefulGold price resumes its upward trajectory within a fortnight-old bullish megaphone chart pattern after a volatile day that initially refreshed an all-time high before posting the biggest daily loss in two months. That said, the XAUUSD’s corrective bounce also takes clues from a rebound in the RSI (14) line. However, bullish MACD signals and cautious mood ahead of the US Retail Sales tests the bullion’s recovery moves. It should be noted that 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s February-March moves, near the $2,400 threshold, currently lures the buyers. However, the aforementioned megaphone’s top line, close to $2,441 at the latest, will challenge the precious metal’s upside afterward. Following that, the commodity’s run-up toward the $2,500 round figure can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the Gold price sellers need a clear downside break of the stated wedge’s bottom line, around $2,336 by the press time. Following that, the 61.8% and 50% FE level will entertain the XAUUSD bears around $2,305 and $2,277 respectively. However, a convergence of the 100-SMA and an upward-sloping support line from February 28, near $2,265, appears a tough nut to crack for the precious metal sellers. In a case where the quote remains weak past $2,265, the odds of witnessing a quick fall toward March’s peaks of around $2,222 and $2,195 appear brighter. Overall, the Gold price lacks upside momentum but the sellers stay off the table beyond $2,265.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD sellers attack 1.2540 key support ahead of UK/US dataGBPUSD fades bounce off the yearly low, marked the previous day, following its failure to cross the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ahead of top-tier UK/US data on Friday. Apart from the failure to cross the key EMA hurdle, the bearish MACD signals and lackluster RSI (14) line also suggest a continuation of the Cable pair’s south-run. However, a daily closing beneath an upward-sloping support line stretched from December 2023, close to 1.2540 at the latest, becomes necessary for the bears to tighten the grip. Even so, February’s low of 1.2520 and late 2023 trough surrounding the 1.2500 threshold could challenge the Pound Sterling’s further downside. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s weakness past 1.2500 will make it vulnerable to plunge toward mid-November 2023’s low of near 1.2375. Alternatively, the GBPUSD pair’s recovery needs a daily closing beyond the 200-EMA level of 1.2567 to convince short-term buyers. Even so, a five-week-old descending resistance line and the monthly high will challenge the Pound Sterling’s further upside around 1.2645 and 1.2710 in that order. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside beyond 1.2710 enables it to confront a four-month-long horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.2790-2805. Following that, the Cable buyer’s ability to renew the yearly high, currently around 1.2900, can’t be ruled out. Overall, the GBPUSD pair is on the way to bear’s platter as a slew of monthly UK data dump and the US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index occupy Friday’s economic calendar.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD pares the biggest daily loss in 13 months on ECB DayWednesday’s strong US inflation data and hawkish Fed Minutes portrayed the EURUSD pair’s biggest daily slump since March 2023. Even so, the Euro pair failed to conquer a five-month-old rising support line, close to 1.0730 by the press time. The inability to break important support joins the market’s consolidation ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision to trigger the quote’s corrective bounce. However, the below 50.00 status of the RSI (14) line joins the bearish MACD signals to challenge the bullish bias, which in turn highlights the aforementioned 1.0730 support for the sellers to watch. Following that, the yearly low of 1.0695 and the mid-November 2023 bottom surrounding 1.0655 will act as the final defenses of the bulls. On the contrary, a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s October-December 2023 upside, close to 1.0795, quickly followed by the 1.0800 threshold, cap the immediate upside of the EURUSD. Even if the quote manages to remain firmer past 1.0800, 200-SMA and 100-SMA will challenge the Euro buyers around 1.0830 and 1.0870 respectively. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside past 1.0870 remains inconclusive for the bulls unless crossing a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from December 2023, near 1.0900 threshold at the latest. To sum up, the EURUSD pair consolidates heavy losses ahead of the key ECB event, as well as the US PPI data. However, the bullish bias appears less convincing below 1.0900, especially when the ECB is likely to announce a dovish halt.
by MTradingGlobal
RSI divergence prods gold bulls, US inflation, Fed Minutes eyedGold price makes rounds to the record top early Wednesday as market players await the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, a bearish RSI divergence on the four-hour chart also challenges the XAUUSD buyers. That said, the lower low in the RSI (14) line contrasts with the higher high in the bullion prices to portray the bearish divergence and tease the sellers. However, a week-long bullish trend channel, currently between $2,314 and $2,375, restricts the precious metal’s short-term moves. Even if the prices drop beneath the $2,314 support, the bears need validation from the $2,300 threshold and convergence of the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a 1.5-month-old rising trend line, close to $2,245-42, to retake control. Meanwhile, a fresh upside in the Gold price could aim for the stated bullish channel’s top line, around $2,375 at the latest. Following that, the 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s February-March moves, near $2,398, will precede the $2,400 threshold to lure the XAUUSD buyers. It’s worth noting that the precious metal’s advances past $2,400 won’t hesitate to aim for the $2,500 psychological magnet. Overall, the Gold buyers are running out of steam ahead of this week’s top-tier data/events.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD grinds higher past 0.6000 ahead of RBNZ, US InflationNZDUSD remains positive around 0.6035-40 early Tuesday, despite lacking upside momentum of late. In doing so, the Kiwi pair defends the previous week’s rebound from the lowest level since November 2023 while portraying the trader’s anxiety ahead of Wednesday’s monetary policy announcements from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It should be noted that the recovery in price takes the support of the upbeat RSI (14) conditions and the bullish MACD signals, which in turn suggests brighter chances of the quote’s further advances. However, the 200-SMA and a five-month-old previous support line, respectively near 0.6070 and 0.6115, appear tough nuts to crack for the bulls. In a case where the buyers manage to keep the reins past 0.6115, the odds of witnessing a gradual run-up toward a four-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6220 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s October-November upside, close to the 0.6000 psychological magnet, restricts the immediate downside of the NZDUSD pair. Following that, the aforementioned horizontal area comprising lows marked since mid-November 2023, near 0.5940, will be the key challenge for the Kiwi pair sellers to pass before retaking control. Should the pair remain bearish past 0.5940, the November 14 low of around 0.5860 will act as the final defense of the buyers before driving prices down to the previous yearly bottom of 0.5773. Overall, the NZDUSD pair is likely to extend the latest rebound ahead of the RBNZ and the US CPI, unless the output of the data/events suggests otherwise.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls eye multi-day-old resistance line and US InflationUSDJPY picks up bids within a fortnight-old trading range while defending the previous day’s rebound from a 150.80-90 support confluence, comprising the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and multiple levels marked in the last two months. The Yen pair’s recovery also justifies the upbeat RSI (14) line and inspires buyers to poke an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from late October 2023, close to 152.00 by the press time. However, the impending bear cross on the MACD challenges the quote’s further upside. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 152.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of its moves between December 2023 and March 2024, near 153.10, will be on the bull’s radar ahead of the 78.6% FE level surrounding 154.85. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s daily closing beneath the 150.80 support confluence will need validation from the 38.2% FE level of 150.55 and the 150.00 threshold. Following that, January’s peak surrounding 148.80 and the previous monthly low near 146.50 could lure the Yen pair sellers. It’s worth noting that February’s bottom of 145.90 acts as the final defense of the pair buyers, a break of which will make the quote vulnerable to drop toward the 140.00 psychological magnet. Overall, the USDJPY is likely to remain firmer but the buyers appear running out of steam and hence this week’s US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, will be crucial to watch for clear directions.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold price extends pullback from record high ahead of US NFPAfter rising for seven consecutive days, the spot Gold price (XAUUSD) witnessed a pullback from an all-time high and closed in the red. That said, the precious metal’s retreat remains intact early Friday as the US Dollar pares weekly losses ahead of the key US employment data, mainly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Technically, the XAUUSD justified overbought RSI conditions and sluggish MACD signals to ease from the record high. This suggests brighter chances of the bullion’s further pullback toward a one-month-old previous resistance line, close to $2,258 by the press time. However, the quote’s downside past $2,258 appears difficult as an ascending trend line from late February challenges the bears around $2,220. Even if the commodity price manages to break the $2,220 support line, the $2,200 threshold and a four-month-old horizontal region surrounding $2,141-50 will be tough nuts to crack for the bears before taking control. On the flip side, the Gold price rebound needs validation from the $2,300 threshold and downbeat prints from the US employment data. Following that, an upward-sloping resistance line from March 21, close to $2,313, will restrict further advances of the XAUUSD. It should be noted that the quote’s sustained run-up beyond $2,313 enables it to aim for the 78.6% and the 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) levels of its February-March moves, near $2,345 and $2,398 respectively. Following that, the $2,400 will act as the final defense of the sellers. Overall, the Gold price remains bullish beyond $2,141 but a short-term pullback can’t be ruled out unless today’s US jobs report disappoints the US Dollar bulls.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD rebound remains unconvincing below 1.2700Wednesday’s broadband US Dollar weakness allowed GBPUSD bulls to extend the week-start rebound from an upward-sloping support line stretched from December 2023. The Cable pair’s recovery also gained support from the upbeat RSI (14) line and bullish MACD signals. However, the 100 and 200-bar Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), respectively around 1.2650 and 1.2665, guard the immediate upside of the pair. Following that, a one-month-old descending resistance line surrounding 1.2700 will be the last defense of the sellers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.2700, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the late March swing high of 1.2800 and then to the yearly peak of 1.2893 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a slew of technical levels stands ready to challenge the GBPUSD bears beyond the 1.2600 threshold. Even if the Pound Sterling drops beneath the 1.2600 support, the aforementioned multi-day-old support line, near 1.2540 as we write, will restrict the quote’s further downside. It’s worth noting that the 2024 low and December 2023 trough could act as the last hurdles for the sellers around 1.2520 and 1.2500 in that order, a break of which could make the prices vulnerable to slump toward the 1.2400 mark. Overall, the GBPUSD pair is likely to witness further upside but the reversal of a month-long bearish trend needs validation from the 1.2700 breakout, as well as the downbeat US data.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD keeps rebound from 1.0725-20 support as EU/US data looomEURUSD recovered from a two-month-old horizontal support the previous day while teasing buyers with the biggest intraday gains in a week ahead of today’s top-tier data from the Eurozone and the US. The corrective bounce from the said support crossed a one-week-long descending resistance and gained support from the firmer RSI (14) line to lure the Euro bulls. However, a convergence of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s fall from December 2023 to February 2024 and the 50-SMA, around 1.0800 by the press time, will challenge the pair buyers. Following that, the previous week’s peak of around 1.0865 and the downward-sloping resistance line from late December 2023, near 1.0910, could restrict the quote’s further upside. On the flip side, the resistance-turned-support line stretched from last Tuesday, close to 1.0760 at the latest, limits the EURUSD pair’s immediate downside ahead of the previously stated horizontal support zone near 1.0725-20. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) conditions and the yearly low of near 1.0700-695 might raise the bars for the Euro bears past 1.0720. In a case where the sellers keep the reins below 1.0695, the odds of witnessing a southward trajectory toward the May 2023 low of near 1.0625 can’t be ruled out. To sum up, EURUSD is likely to witness further recovery in prices as traders await the Eurozone inflation and the US ISM Services PMI, as well as the US ADP Employment Change. However, the upside room for the prices appears limited unless the scheduled data disappoints the US Dollar bulls and favors the Euro’s latest advances.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD rebound remains elusive below 0.6500AUDUSD portrays a corrective bounce from the lowest level in a month, snapping a three-day downtrend, amid mixed data/events from Australia. Also allowing the Aussie pair to consolidate recent losses is the market’s reaction to the upbeat data from China, Australia’s biggest customer, as well as the below 50 levels of the RSI line. However, the bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beneath the 0.6500 support confluence, comprising an ascending trend line from early November and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s late 2023 moves, challenge the bullish bias. Even if the quote manages to cross the 0.6500 support-turned-resistance, a convergence of the 50-SMA and the 200-SMA near 0.6545-50 will be a tough nut to crack for the buyers. Following that, the 0.6600 threshold and a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since January, near 0.6635-40, will be the last defenses of the pair sellers before giving control to the bulls. On the contrary, a two-month-old horizontal support around 0.6475 restricts the immediate downside of the AUDUSD pair ahead of the yearly low marked in February around 0.6445. In a case where the Aussie pair remains bearish past 0.6445, the early November swing lows surrounding 0.6340 and 0.6320 could test the sellers before directing them to the previous yearly low of 0.6270. It’s worth noting that the quote’s weakness past 0.6270 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the year 2022 bottom around 0.6170. Overall, the AUDUSD pair is likely to remain bearish and the latest recovery appears less convincing.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY grinds within immediate range amid holiday-shortened weekUSDJPY registered the first weekly loss in three amid mixed concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next move, especially when the policymakers hesitated to stick to the hawkish plan after the first rate hike in 17 years. However, the broad US Dollar strength and an upbeat performance of the yields put a floor under the prices. Apart from the mixed fundamentals, the Yen pair’s inability to break the seven-week-old horizontal support zone surrounding 150.75-90, as well as cross an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from March 20, close to the 152.00 threshold, restrict short-term moves of the pair. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained trading beyond the 100 and 200 SMA join steady oscillators to keep the buyers hopeful. That said, an upside clearance of the 152.00 immediate resistance could quickly propel the prices toward a three-week-old support-turned-resistance, around 152.90. Following that, the June 1990 high of 155.80 will be in the spotlight. On the contrary, a downside break of the seven-week-old horizontal support of 150.75-90 will direct the USDJPY sellers toward the 200 and 100 SMA levels, respectively near 150.00 and 149.75 at the latest. In a case where the Yen pair sellers keep the reins past 149.75, the March 18 swing high of 149.30 and the 149.00 round figure will act as the final defense of the buyers before directing the sellers toward the previous monthly high of near 146.50. Overall, the mixed catalysts join the Easter Monday holiday in major markets and a light calendar to restrict the USDJPY pair’s moves. However, the quote remains on the bull’s radar.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears attack six-month-old support ahead of Fed inflationEURUSD remains pressured at the lowest level in five weeks, down for the fourth consecutive day, as market players await the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data for February. In doing so, the Euro pair pokes the key support line stretched from early October 2023 while extending its fall from a convergence of the 200-day and the 50-day SMAs. That said, the bearish MACD signals and the pair’s failure to extend the week-start rebound beyond the key SMA joint keep the sellers hopeful. Also adding strength to the downside bias is a looming death-cross on the daily chart, a condition where the 50-SMA crosses the 200-SMA from above. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) line is sliding towards the oversold territory, which in turn suggests limited downside room for the quote. As a result, an area comprising the 1.0700 round figure and the previous monthly low of near 1.0695 will test the bears. Following that, a downward-slopping support line from December, close to 1.0675 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the buyers. Meanwhile, the 1.0800 round figure guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair ahead of the aforementioned SMA confluence, near 1.0835-40 by the press time. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 1.0840, the 1.0900 threshold and a three-month-long descending resistance line surrounding 1.0940 will be crucial to watch before welcoming the Euro buyers. In a case where the bulls keep the reins past 1.0940, the monthly high of 1.0981 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet will act as the additional upside filters before giving control to the bulls. Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to witness further downside ahead of the key US data. However, the Good Friday holiday will restrict the market’s reaction to the statistics.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD sellers need validation from 1.2565 and UK/US GDPGBPUSD prints mild losses around 1.2630 while paring the first weekly gains in three, so far, as traders await Thursday’s final prints of the UK and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024. In doing so, the Pound Sterling struggles to defend the previous week’s rebound from the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) amid downbeat RSI (14) line. However, the bearish MACD signals and the Cable pair’s sustained trading beneath the convergence of 50-EMA and previous support line stretched from early February, around 1.2680 at the latest, keep the sellers hopeful. That said, the quote needs to provide a daily closing beneath the 200-EMA level of 1.2565 to confirm the further downside. Following that, the yearly low of 1.2518 and December 2023 bottom surrounding 1.2500 will act as the final defense of the bulls. On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the 1.2680 resistance confluence comprising the 50-EMA and the previous support line could recall the GBPUSD pair buyers. Should the quote remain firmer past 1.2680, the 15-week-old horizontal resistance zone will challenge the bulls around 1.2795-2805. In a case where the Pound Sterling rises beyond 1.2805, the yearly peak of 1.2893 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight. Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains bearish ahead of the key UK/US GDP data but the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal