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Fibonacci Extension

NIFTY (TIME & LUNAR CYCLE)The very word “lunacy” dates back to the 15th century when it was believed the moon and its phases could make people become more or less aggressive, depending on its place in the lunar cycle Several studies found a connection between full and new Moons and stock market performance. Generally, stocks tend to perform better in the days around the New Moon, while price weakness is more frequently seen in the days around Full Moon. It was also observed that major market crashes have a history of happening about 3 days before a New Moon. We will try to understand the significance of cyclical movements in Nifty its theory and few previously applied practical executions (that gave precise accuracy) and at last try to predict NIFTY for the upcoming time using the same. Let’s try to put the very same concept of Lunar Cycles and Time cycles in Nifty and draw a conclusion of the possible scenario that could happen in future after drawing a pattern from the past. LUNAR CYCLES IN NIFTY: Every downside rally starts or intensifies with Full Moon Day. If we look at downside rally starting 19th OCT 2021, it started just a day before full moon day and market fell by almost 12%. - On downside rally starting 18th JAN 2022, which started just a day after full moon day and market fell by almost 14.60%. - On downside rally starting 5th APR 2022, which started just few days before full moon day and market fell by almost 16%. - On downside rally starting 15th SEPT 2022, which started just few days after full moon day and market fell by almost 7.5%. - On downside rally starting 2th DEC 2022, which started just few days after full moon day and market fell by almost 5.87% Just Lunar Cycle alone is not enough as these are also confirmed by 55 Days Reversal cycle. This ongoing reversal was well informed before it was initiated .Please check this analysis (dated 2nd Dec 2022) to find the same: The current high was predicted based on Fibonacci Retracement (dated 29th OCT 2022, Target done on 1st DEC 2022) If we look at the past we can see that the process of Low formation takes a time of about 99-101 days approximately, which means in every 99 to 101 days a low is formed where after Nifty rallies upside by a whopping 10% minimum. One more interesting pattern that can be seen is after a low is formed Nifty forms the high in 3 * x number of days, such as 27 days , 87 days or 63 days ( Anything that is a multiple of 3), the remaining days when subtracted from 100, are the days it takes to form the low. It has been plotted with date range in the chart itself. This is how we should try to find a time cycle pattern .But anyways as we have predicted the high with a price and time confirmation successfully, we should be focusing on finding the bottom of NIFTY where we can get a buy opportunity. If we do the Mathematics behind the low formation and high low formation then we will come to a hypothetical result that an initiation of upside in NIFTY may be seen just before or after 6th JAN. Because the previous low formation date was 29th Sept 2022 and 100 days from it is 6th JAN 2022. Expected NIFTY downside levels are mentioned in the chart itself. OR ELSE THE CALCULATION MAY BE COMPUTED IN THIS WAY: The previous low was formed was in 29th Sept 2022 and market rallied upside for approximately 63 days and remaining is 37 days to complete the 99-101 days Low formation cycle. So probably NIFTY may finish the correction near to 6th JAN 2022. This is just an example that how time cycles are needed to be identified by a trader as it is not visible easily. Moreover in predictive analysis the probability of any error is high. So one possibility we can’t ignore is that market may bottom out before the mentioned date but I strongly feel the aggressive upside may be seen only near to 6th JAN 2022. CHART & ANALYSIS ADARSH DEY
NSE:NIFTY
by AdarshDey
5
Uptrend Continues in MAS Good Day, Hello Traders, See how beautifully it is following Fibonacci Levels as the rounding bottom is completed Now the next targets lined up are 909/ 971 / 1048 / 1188 Time Frame: Daily Hold for 8 to 12 months. It also depends how market behaves, however the trend and the sentiment is bullish . Chart Self Explantory. Disclaimer : I am not SEBI registered analyst, this is for educational purposes. Please trade as per your risk and do consult with your financial advisor before taking any trading decisions.. If you really like the analysis , please do comments, LIKE and Follow me.
NSE:MASFINLong
by Piscean17th
Nifty Analysis: A Bullish Scenario 🚀Hi 👋 There are always two potentially predominant scenarios possible in the stock market – Bullish and Bearish. Most people involved in the stock market like to read and appreciate the positive side of the market, that is bullish. This is because they always ‘Buy’ and never sell. Neither they sell to ‘Short’ the market nor to take profit 😉 This idea is representing the bullish scenario of the market. I have used minimal tools – Support and Resistance; Fib Time Zones; Fib Extensions and a self-developed technique to weigh weaker and stronger sides (bulls & bears) of the market. Let is discuss them one by one 👇 🚀 Fib Time Zones Fib zones are helpful in analyzing market cycles but in my experience fib zones have always been a hit and miss experiment, as there is no concrete way in which fib zones can perfectly match the market cycles. Theoretically we match previous highs to project the next peek or we match previous lows to project the next trough in a market cycle. On this chart I matched the highs of Feb 2021 and Oct 2021 and found that it perfectly projected June 2022 low (marked by Fib zone 3). If this projection is correct and continues then there could be a high (I am saying ‘high’ because we are discussing bullish scenario) near Mid Feb 2023 (Marked as Fib zone 4). This may hold true as long as market trades and sustains above all-time highs. 🚀 Support and Resistance When I say all-time highs (ATH), it means 18600 (ish) levels. Normally these levels stand as strong resistance, because sellers get active taking profits or shorting near those levels. As of now those levels have not been tested by Nifty (spot). Secondly, there was 18100 level which acted as strong resistance in Apr 2022 and Sep 2022. However, the reaction in Sep was much less compared to the reaction in Apr, which is good for bulls. In Nov, market breakout of this resistance and also tested it once in the later half of Nov. The test was held, means buyers had an upper hand, and previous resistance (18100) acted as support. Eventually, market resumed the trend established from Jun 2022 lows. I would personally like to see the market break and sustain above ATH (18600 or so) for it to achieve our projected targets. 🚀 Fib Extension Fib extension is an effective tool to project markets next move or targets. There are different methods used by different traders or investors or mentioned by different authors in their writeups. Most popular ones being 1:1 extension, 1:2 extension and the ones that conform to the Elliot wave principles. Measured move: If I measure the move from Jun low to Sep high and project it for a 1:1 target, it gives us 19650 as the target. This can be taken as a medium-term bullish target for the market. Elliot: According to Elliot, 3rd wave can not be the smallest. If I take move from Jun to Sep 2022 as wave1 and late Sep correction as wave 2 then wave3 should be larger than wave1, that means beyond 19650. Wave3 extension can go up to (1.618 x wave1) or higher. If I take 1.618 extension then wave 3 targets for 21450 (quite ambitious though). We can take it as a longer-term target for investors. Cup & Handle Thirdly, if you look carefully there is a cup and handle continuation pattern. This can be made by joining Apr high, Jun low, Sep high and Sep low. The blue Support and Resistance line shown on the chart would be the neckline for this pattern (and is breached positively). The target for this pattern comes out to be = 18114 + 15183 = 21045. This gives us a zone from 21000 to 21500 as a target for long term investors. Will the market hit the long-term target on Mid-Feb 2023 Fib zone? Or will it hit the short-term target 19650 at that time? This question should remain open for discussion in the comment section. 🚀 (Bravo) Momentum Technique There is nothing much fancy in this technique than the Price and Time based analysis. I analyze price waves through the lens of time to measure momentum of the market. Technical charts are drawn by taking Time on X-axis and Price on Y-axis and this helps in tracking the price moves. I take help of these price moves in identifying bullish and bearish trends. As a general rule of thumb if the price is taking less time recovering a bearish move then there is bullish momentum. This means bulls are still stronger than bears. The opposite is also true. If price is taking more time to recover a corrective wave then bulls might soon lose ground. To make it simple, I have drawn red and green rectangles. The red rectangles encase bearish waves and the green ones encase bullish waves. There are two important things that you need to observe – height and width of the rectangles. Normally height of two adjacent rectangles (bearish and bullish recovery waves) would be the same. So, it the width that is more important. The width represents the number of days the market takes to complete a wave. As long as the width of green rectangles is less than red ones, the momentum would be bullish. Normally we see bullish momentum in an uptrend, so there are greater chances that the trend would stay on the upside. The opposite is true in case of downtrend. You can see in the chart that although the market was making lower lows from Oct2021 to Jun2022, the width of green rectangles is less compared to red ones. Or you can say that market had been taking lesser number of sessions to recover a down move. This means that bulls were more active and were interested in accumulation at the lower levels (see number of sessions/bars under each rectangle). This signals a positive momentum in an uptrend and hence higher chances of the trend to resume. This method is useful for investors as well as traders. Investors can apply it on higher timeframes and traders on a lower-timeframes, for analyzing, confirming and riding trends. I hope you learnt something new from this post. Now do me a favor and hit 🚀 so that I can push myself to write more. Your thoughts are welcomed in the comment section 👇 Have a great life 👍
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Bravetotrade
16
HBL Power : Perfect Example of Fibonacci Levels Good Day , Hello Traders, HBL Power is one of the best dark horse, Consolidates then moves. Fibonacci Levels are been respected perfectly as you can see the levels of 122 achieved and now it retraced a bit . Gearing up for the next level of 152. Good candidate for Long term perspective. Chart Self explanatory Time Frame : Daily Disclaimer : I am not SEBI registered analyst, this is for educational purposes. Please trade as per your risk and do consult with your financial advisor before taking any trading decisions.. If you really like the analysis , please do comments, LIKE and Follow me.
NSE:HBLENGINELong
by Piscean17th
GOLD Flat correction about to Complete! New High Awaits?Gold Wave 3 ended after Covid Rally at 2075$ then went in consolidation for long time. Wave 4 is in progress which is looking like Flat ABC correction which 3-3-5 waves pattern Wave B retraces 90% of A and then Wave C breaks low of A. Wave C is 5 wave impulse or diagonal structure Wave C in this case could be Ending Diagonal Pattern which is expected end between 1675-50$ After low near these levels one can wait for break of 1808$ to consider move beyond 2075$ If wave C goes beyond 1600$ mark then this Analysis will be invalid. DISCLAIMER: There is no guarantee of profits or no exceptions from losses. The stock and its levels discussed are solely the personal views of my research. You are advised to rely on your judgement while investing/Trading decisions. Seek help of your financial advisor before investing/trading. Investment Warnings: We would like to draw your attention to the following important investment warnings. -Investment is subject to market risks. -The value of shares and investments and the income derived from them can go down as well as up. -Investors may not get back the amount they invested - losing one's shirt is a real risk. -Past performance is not a guide to future performance. -I may or may not trade this analysis --------------------------(((((LIKE)))))-------------------------------
TVC:GOLD
by Niftydirection
NIfty July month expectation and analysis i am expecting a test down of 15178, 14887.90, 14680 levels before 18th july current market price as of 5th july is 15810 18july to 5-8 august might be a consolidation and momentum divergence period only if above 15178-14887-14680 level are sustained will buy on based on momentum divergence of macd or rsi (best will the double bottom bullish divergence) NOTE; this levels are drawn based on previous data considering 4th april 22' high this analysis is only based on technical factors no fundamentals or news are factored level and support resistance are drawn from schiff pitchfork, trend based fib time, trend based fib extensions THIS IS JUST MY POV NOT AN SEBI REGISTERED ANALYST JUST A SELF LEARN ENTHUSIAST
NSE:NIFTY
by Jimmy_Rebello
What is Fibonacci extension?Hey everyone! 👋 Last time we explained some of the basics to know when it comes to understanding the Fibonacci retracement tool. If you haven’t read that post, be sure to check it out here: In this post, we are going to look at the Fibonacci extension along with a few exhibits that may help you solidify your understanding of this unique trading tool. Please remember this is an educational post to help everyone better understand investing and trading tools. In no way are we trying to promote a particular style of trading! Table of Contents: 1. What are Fibonacci extension levels? 2. What is the significance of extension levels? 3. How to find extension levels? 4. Difference between the Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci extension Without further ado, let’s jump in! What are Fibonacci extension levels? A Fibonacci extension is a tool that can be used to find price targets or estimate how far a price may move after the retracement/pullback is over. Extension levels are also possible areas of interest where the price may stall or reverse. It can be used to find projected areas of support or resistance when the price is moving into an area where other methods of finding support or resistance are not applicable or evident. Fibonacci extension levels can be calculated to give the trader ideas on profit targets. Significance of Fibonacci extension levels Different traders use this tool differently but the most common usage is as follows: Fibonacci extensions can be used for any timeframe and in any market- stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, etc. Fibonacci extension levels indicate a price area that will be significant for the stock after the pullback/correction is over. Extension levels can be drawn on different price waves over time. When levels from these different waves converge at one price, that could be a very important area. For example , A stock may be in an uptrend. After a move up, it retraces to the 61.8% level. Then, it starts to go up again. In this case, the extension tool can be used to find the optimal targets after the price moves above the swing high level (100% level). How to find Fibonacci extension levels? In order to find the Fibonacci extension levels, you have to find the recent significant swing high and swing low and then plot the Fibonacci extension accordingly. For uptrend: First, select the swing low and then the swing high. Then go to the Fibonacci settings and select reverse. For downtrend: First, select the swing high and then the swing low. Then go to the Fibonacci settings and select reverse. Exhibit: Fibonacci extension in an uptrend Exhibit: Fibonacci extension in a downtrend Difference Between Fibonacci Retracements and Fibonacci Extensions Fibonacci retracements provide levels for a pullback whereas Fibonacci extensions provide levels in the direction of the existing trend. For instance, a stock goes from 50 to 100 and then falls back to 75. The move from 100 to 75 is a retracement. If the price starts rallying again and goes to 150, that is an extension because the price moved past the previous swing high which is 100 in this case. Conclusion: Adding Fibonacci analysis with other common methods of technical analysis can be useful for adding confluence to a trade. Thanks for reading! Hope this was helpful! See you all next week. 🙂 – Team TradingView Feel free to check us out on Twitter and Instagram for more awesome content! 💘
NYSE:SNAPEducation
by TradingView
18
Nifty Crack In progress in wave CNifty post forming Leading diagonal now has staryed wave C which is expected to reach below previous low 15671. DISCLAIMER:There is no guarantee of profits nor exceptions from losses. Technical analysis provided on the chart is solely the personal views of my research. You are advised to rely on your own judgments while taking any investing/Trading decisions. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Investment/trading is subject to market risks. Seek help of your financial advisors before investing/trading. Not recommended to take FnO positions based on this analysis I may or may not trade this analysis. Details in description.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Niftydirection