Fibonacci Retracement
BULL RUN Resumes in Metal stocks ? Tata Steel breaking out !!Tata Steel is trying to break out of the long Consolidation (1.5Years+)
It did a breakdown on 23rd Decemeber but immediately reversed which suggests a furious move on the other side.
It was also the 61% Retracement of recent trend.
Important Levels:
For Long term Investors: It should not Close and sustain below Rs100. Trade below 100 opens up the areas of Rs80-85.
For Short-medium term traders: It should not enter into the triangle zone again. Entering in it will suggest the lose of momentum and a trader must exit if it happens.
On upside: 130-135 seems to be the first hurdle zone for Tata steel.
But, according to the long term chart structure, it has a very long way to go.
I am expecting a new ALL TIME HIGH SOON till the downside levels are saved.
NOTE: These are for educational purposes. No Recommendation.
TIME CYCLES & PRICE STUDYThe correction in HIKAL LTD seems to be done, the wave counting has been mentioned in the chart. Currently the stock is trying to a time wise correction and has consolidated for a time being try to form a rounded bottom structure and taking support on a curve during the correction phase.
Interestingly HIKAL LTD has a trading cycle of forming a low in every 88 trading Sessions or roughly 128 to 130 days. Lows has been plotted in Rectangular plots and the time between each low has been plotted using date range in the bottom of the chart. However after the low is formed, the high is formed within 43-46-50 trading sessions ie.60 to 70 days.
The expected date for recent low formation was 17th Nov 2022, although the low was formed one month back on 26th Sept 2022 but still the stock was not rallying and lying roughly on the same level. Surprisingly on 17th Nov 2022 the stock made a low near the closing price of 26th Sept 2022 showing a support and the importance of the low formation cycle of 88 trading Sessions. That’s the power of Time cycles .
But after 17th Nov 2022 the stock has been forming higher lows and even an Ascending triangle. Isn’t it interesting that after 17th Nov 2022, the stock gives a clearer picture of curved support and also forms an ascending triangle showing bullishness.
It’s already been 13 Trading sessions or 19 days over after the Low formation date of 17th Nov 2022 so the stock is expected to do good in the month of December as roughly 40 to 45 days are remaining for the new expected high.A good up move can be seen once the breakout occurs. On a conservative approach using Fibonacci retracement the target stands to be at 416-420 with a SL below 335 on closing basis. But it is always advisable to enter once the breakout occurs and there is a proper confirmation for entry
CHART & ANALYSIS
ADARSH KUMAR DEY
SIEMENS Ready for a Sharp CORRECTION MOVE ??!!!Chart patterns poise way for the above titled opinion
Reasons
1. SIEMENS travelling in a Ascending channel (From 2019)(Bright red & green lines shown in chart).
2. Now, it seems ready for the downswing (white trendline descending channel shown in chart) inside the Ascending channel.
3. Rounding top too confirming the chances of down move .
4. GAP b/w 6th & 7th December is acting as Support.
Entry can be made after the yellow trendline gets broken.(Keeping the high of the breakdown candle as SL)
FIB 0.5 can act as support in downside(1st target)- 2645
Safe SL mentioned @ chart.(IF WE ENTER NOW)
Let's wait & watch how it moves!!!!
Note - Just Sharing my view...not a tip nor advice!!!
BANKNIFTY BREAKDOWN OF INVERTED CUP & HANDLE ??!!!Chart Pattern depicts the situation clearly.
1. BankNifty travelling in a Descending channel(bright red and green lines shown in chart)
2. Inverted cup & handle formed and given a Neckline Breakdown with good volume!!! (and low too got tested)
3. Target can be 0.5 Fib support down ! !(as the depth of the cup measured)
4. 1hr closing above 42200 can fail the pattern and be our SL!!
Nifty too in formation of same pattern but not given breakdown!!!and it needs to close below 17800 for this same breakdown!!
Let's see how it moves!!!
Note: Just sharing my view....not a tip nor advice!!!!!
NIFTY (TIME & LUNAR CYCLE)The very word “lunacy” dates back to the 15th century when it was believed the moon and its phases could make people become more or less aggressive, depending on its place in the lunar cycle
Several studies found a connection between full and new Moons and stock market performance. Generally, stocks tend to perform better in the days around the New Moon, while price weakness is more frequently seen in the days around Full Moon. It was also observed that major market crashes have a history of happening about 3 days before a New Moon. We will try to understand the significance of cyclical movements in Nifty its theory and few previously applied practical executions (that gave precise accuracy) and at last try to predict NIFTY for the upcoming time using the same.
Let’s try to put the very same concept of Lunar Cycles and Time cycles in Nifty and draw a conclusion of the possible scenario that could happen in future after drawing a pattern from the past.
LUNAR CYCLES IN NIFTY:
Every downside rally starts or intensifies with Full Moon Day. If we look at downside rally starting 19th OCT 2021, it started just a day before full moon day and market fell by almost 12%.
- On downside rally starting 18th JAN 2022, which started just a day after full moon day and market fell by almost 14.60%.
- On downside rally starting 5th APR 2022, which started just few days before full moon day and market fell by almost 16%.
- On downside rally starting 15th SEPT 2022, which started just few days after full moon day and market fell by almost 7.5%.
- On downside rally starting 2th DEC 2022, which started just few days after full moon day and market fell by almost 5.87%
Just Lunar Cycle alone is not enough as these are also confirmed by 55 Days Reversal cycle. This ongoing reversal was well informed before it was initiated .Please check this analysis (dated 2nd Dec 2022) to find the same:
The current high was predicted based on Fibonacci Retracement (dated 29th OCT 2022, Target done on 1st DEC 2022)
If we look at the past we can see that the process of Low formation takes a time of about 99-101 days approximately, which means in every 99 to 101 days a low is formed where after Nifty rallies upside by a whopping 10% minimum.
One more interesting pattern that can be seen is after a low is formed Nifty forms the high in 3 * x number of days, such as 27 days , 87 days or 63 days ( Anything that is a multiple of 3), the remaining days when subtracted from 100, are the days it takes to form the low. It has been plotted with date range in the chart itself. This is how we should try to find a time cycle pattern .But anyways as we have predicted the high with a price and time confirmation successfully, we should be focusing on finding the bottom of NIFTY where we can get a buy opportunity.
If we do the Mathematics behind the low formation and high low formation then we will come to a hypothetical result that an initiation of upside in NIFTY may be seen just before or after 6th JAN. Because the previous low formation date was 29th Sept 2022 and 100 days from it is 6th JAN 2022. Expected NIFTY downside levels are mentioned in the chart itself.
OR ELSE THE CALCULATION MAY BE COMPUTED IN THIS WAY:
The previous low was formed was in 29th Sept 2022 and market rallied upside for approximately 63 days and remaining is 37 days to complete the 99-101 days Low formation cycle. So probably NIFTY may finish the correction near to 6th JAN 2022.
This is just an example that how time cycles are needed to be identified by a trader as it is not visible easily. Moreover in predictive analysis the probability of any error is high. So one possibility we can’t ignore is that market may bottom out before the mentioned date but I strongly feel the aggressive upside may be seen only near to 6th JAN 2022.
CHART & ANALYSIS
ADARSH DEY
MFL add to watchlista promising setup but one needs to catch it on green closing above the previous week for best entry for trading
and
if one wanna buy a great R:R can enter at cmp but with strict SL
SL will be closing basis below support zone in weekly timeframe or as per your setup
target as per fibo level one can take a sum of profit or trail as per fibo level or there own setup
one thing keep in mind its a weekly chart all the target must be follow on weekly basis
do u own analysis i might be wrong
i am not a sebi registered advisor
so trade on your own risk
Principle of convergence in FibonacciIf we take two recent swing lows and swing highs and draw Fibonacci Retracement levels for getting a clear idea of possible retracements then there are following possibilities.
1. Nifty has two retracement levels in close proximities, which coincides with each other.
2. First Retracement level of 18030-18080 is already completed. If Nifty Sustains, will move up.
3. If Nifty breaks this level of Retracement, then it might lead to next retracement level of 17480-17576.(buy Put or sell Future)
NIFTY OUTLOOK- Oct 9th 2022 the low making date for NIFTY was mentioned as 13 or 14th OCt 2022. The low was made on 13th Oct and NIFTY resumed upside.
- The target for the upside rally was mentioned approximately 18900 on 24th Oct 2022.
- Nifty achieved a high of 18887 on 1st Dec 2022 (Just 13pts away)
Currently we can see a completion of 55 Days time cycle and a small reversal( which is not confirmed yet) where nifty generally reverses for a intermediate bottom formation. Moreover NIFTY is a Fibo level 1.618 of the downside rally during Sept month . So the scenario we can expect if 18900 level is not taken out is the target remains to be 18181 .
A second confirmation can also be drawn from S&P_500 where it is in a Wolfe Wave but near 2-4 Tl (taken as a resistance most of the times). This adds on to the probability for the NIFTY for a small correction if the global markets turns hawkish only for a small time being. The chart of S&P_500 has been given below :
Link to Oct 9th 2022 study mentioning low making date for NIFTY was mentioned as 13 or 14th OCt 2022:
Link to 24th Oct 2022 study mentioning target for the upside rally was mentioned approximately 18900 :
CHART & ANALYSIS - ADARSH DEY