14 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on FinNifty - flavorless Expiry todayFinNifty Weekly Analysis
We have fallen 2.31% ~ 464pts between the last expiry and today. This is definitely a good start for the bears. Unlike Nifty, Finnifty has managed to form a lower low on the 1hr TF. The first major support comes at 19421.
FinNifty Today Analysis
Due to HDFCBK’s weightage on Finnifty, we closed a 0.1% lower than banknifty today i.e at 0.3% ~ 66pts down.Chartwise today’s recovery was not as dramatic as Nifty50 and provides further room for bears to play.
From an expiry perspective, the options premiums were not at all exciting even during the opening minutes. Since we had a good gap down, the expectation was that PE strikes would explode in premiums - but that did not happen. Guess the big-boys came prepared not to drive down the prices further. Retail traders like you and me were in the dark and had to guess the direction.
Tomorrow will be a trading holiday as we are celebrating our 77th Independence Day - 15th Aug. This was the reason we had FinNifty expiry on Monday instead of Tuesday this week.
Finnifty
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 14th, the global market sentiment is neutral to slightly negative (based on the Dow Jones alone), There is no significant difference from the last session. While the market trend is bearish. Therefore, there might be a start with a minor gap-down. After that, if the market takes a pullback around the immediate support zone, we can expect a minimum 38% pullback. or if it breaks it(immediate support zone), then the correction will likely continue. On the other hand, if the initial market shows a positive start, we can expect a ranging market."
FinNifty weekly expiry for 14/08/23.FinNifty has closed below the swing low and for consecutive 3 weeks it has given red candle.
The market tried to retrace from the 19730 levels but this time it has closed below it.
On the daily chart, there is a low formation, retest and again it is forming another low. The bearish trend is confirmed and once the index start trading below the previous day low bearish trades can be entered.
It has closed between both the moving averages and the formation of an inverted cup is there which gives more conviction of the move to be a trending move.
On the hourly charts, the market has formed a bearish moving averages cross over and it has closed below both the moving averages. There are chance of market retesting the moving averages. If there is a negative candle formation near the level, enter a bearish trade.
19780-19850 range is a volatile range. It will be wise too avoid trading in this range as there is too much volatility in this range.
Support :- 19620, 19500
Resistance :- 19750, 19835, 19920
Tomorrow is Finnifty expiry and option premium will give good decay. The index on the smaller time frame is forming a lower low lower high pattern which can give confidence in a bearish trade.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 11th, the global market sentiment is neutral to slightly negative (based on the Dow Jones alone), while the market trend is moderately bearish. Therefore, there might be a start with a minor gap-down. After that, if the market takes a pullback around the immediate support zone, we can expect a minimum 38% pullback. or if it breaks it(immediate support zone), then the correction will likely continue. On the other hand, if the initial market shows a positive start, we can expect a ranging market."
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 10th, the global market sentiment is slightly negative (based on the Dow Jones alone), while the market trend remains moderately bullish. There is no significant difference from the last session. Therefore, whether it opens with a gap-up or down, it won't matter. If the initial market experiences sharp declines, we can anticipate a ranging market or a correction. On the other hand, if the market exceeds yesterday's high, we can expect the rally to continue with minor corrections. However, the important thing to note is that today's market has a significant event: the RBI MPC meeting at 10 am. This is a major event, and the market will likely move based on its outcome. So, it's advisable to take your position a bit more cautiously."
BANKNIFTY By Big Bull's 🤑🤑🤑💸💸💸✔#We Make Only Profit.
#HDFCBANK #BANKNIFTY #NIFTY50 #NIFTY #SENSEX #TATA
Intraday trading involves buying and selling options within the same trading day, rather than holding them for an extended period. By adopting this approach, traders can make profits by capitalizing on the short-term price movements of the underlying asset.22-Apr-2023
Is option buying good for intraday?
Trading intraday options can be a great way to benefit from short-term market fluctuations and make quick money. Before you dive headfirst into the fast-paced world of intraday options, it's important to have a sound strategy with an understanding of risks and rewards.
The long black candlestick is 'the mother' and the small candlestick is 'the baby'. The smaller the second candlestick, the stronger is the reversal signal. The shadows of the second candlestick do not have to be contained within the first candle's body.
Which candle is best for option trading?
Here are the top 5 candlestick patterns that traders must know:
Doji. The Doji pattern is formed when the Open Price and Close Prices are the same or almost the same, and there is Low and High Price, so the candle has nearly nobody with a lower and upper wick. ...
Hanging Man. ...
Hammer. ...
Morning Star and Evening Star.
Technical analysis and options trading can go hand in hand. Many of the best practices for options trading come directly from technical analysis concepts. Technical analysis focuses on price. Fundamental analysis does not solely focus on price.
RBI Forex Reserve Grow is this Good or Bad ?
1st 140 Billion loss hua hai or ab 20 Billion Grow hua hai to hai to abi bhi loss mai
Gover..t abi losss mai hai
#FINNIFTY 100% Perfect Intraday Trade🤑#We Make Only Profit.
#HDFCBANK #BANKNIFTY #NIFTY50 #NIFTY #SENSEX #TATA
Intraday trading involves buying and selling options within the same trading day, rather than holding them for an extended period. By adopting this approach, traders can make profits by capitalizing on the short-term price movements of the underlying asset.22-Apr-2023
Is option buying good for intraday?
Trading intraday options can be a great way to benefit from short-term market fluctuations and make quick money. Before you dive headfirst into the fast-paced world of intraday options, it's important to have a sound strategy with an understanding of risks and rewards.
The long black candlestick is 'the mother' and the small candlestick is 'the baby'. The smaller the second candlestick, the stronger is the reversal signal. The shadows of the second candlestick do not have to be contained within the first candle's body.
Which candle is best for option trading?
Here are the top 5 candlestick patterns that traders must know:
Doji. The Doji pattern is formed when the Open Price and Close Prices are the same or almost the same, and there is Low and High Price, so the candle has nearly nobody with a lower and upper wick. ...
Hanging Man. ...
Hammer. ...
Morning Star and Evening Star.
Technical analysis and options trading can go hand in hand. Many of the best practices for options trading come directly from technical analysis concepts. Technical analysis focuses on price. Fundamental analysis does not solely focus on price.
RBI Forex Reserve Grow is this Good or Bad ?
1st 140 Billion loss hua hai or ab 20 Billion Grow hua hai to hai to abi bhi loss mai
Gover..t abi losss mai hai
HDFCBANK Best Intraday Ever You see🤑🤑🤑💸💸#We Make Only Profit.
#HDFCBANK #BANKNIFTY #NIFTY50 #NIFTY #SENSEX #TATA
Intraday trading involves buying and selling options within the same trading day, rather than holding them for an extended period. By adopting this approach, traders can make profits by capitalizing on the short-term price movements of the underlying asset.22-Apr-2023
Is option buying good for intraday?
Trading intraday options can be a great way to benefit from short-term market fluctuations and make quick money. Before you dive headfirst into the fast-paced world of intraday options, it's important to have a sound strategy with an understanding of risks and rewards.
The long black candlestick is 'the mother' and the small candlestick is 'the baby'. The smaller the second candlestick, the stronger is the reversal signal. The shadows of the second candlestick do not have to be contained within the first candle's body.
Which candle is best for option trading?
Here are the top 5 candlestick patterns that traders must know:
Doji. The Doji pattern is formed when the Open Price and Close Prices are the same or almost the same, and there is Low and High Price, so the candle has nearly nobody with a lower and upper wick. ...
Hanging Man. ...
Hammer. ...
Morning Star and Evening Star.
Technical analysis and options trading can go hand in hand. Many of the best practices for options trading come directly from technical analysis concepts. Technical analysis focuses on price. Fundamental analysis does not solely focus on price.
RBI Forex Reserve Grow is this Good or Bad ?
1st 140 Billion loss hua hai or ab 20 Billion Grow hua hai to hai to abi bhi loss mai
Gover..t abi losss mai hai
#Finnifty"Good morning! As of August 9th, the global market sentiment is neutral to slightly negative (based on the Dow Jones alone), while the market trend remains moderately bullish. There is no significant difference from the last session. Therefore, whether it opens with a gap-up or down, it won't matter. If the initial market experiences sharp declines, we can anticipate a ranging market. However, if it breaks the immediate support zone, the correction is more likely to continue.. On the other hand, should the market exceed yesterday's high, we can expect the rally to continue with minor corrections."
08 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on FinNifty - weekly analysis - neutral !FinNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, CNXFINANCE has fallen 219pts ~ 1.08%. The majority of the fall came on 02 and 03 Aug after which we have seen a recovery of 1.9% from the lows.
FinNifty Today Analysis
If you look at today’s 5mts chart, it was a steady upward moving market with a healthy pullback. Even when the index was falling from 10.55 to 11.30 - there was no visible threat in the short term upward bias. Shortly after this fall we had a rally of 104 pts to hit an intraday high of 20120 by 14.25.
The short term stance continues to be neutral with a slight bullish bias because we just cut through a bearish trend line.
Finnifty Expiry Trade Setup for 08-08-2023FinNifty important intraday levels to watch for 08-08-2023
#Support: 19970
Short if candle closes below 19970
#resistance: 20080
Long if candle closes above 20080
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19920
Target 2= 19850
Target 3= 19745
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 20135
Target 2= 20230
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea.
Queries will be answered in comment section.
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 8th, there is no significant difference compared to the last session. The global market sentiment is slightly positive (based on the Dow Jones alone), while the market trend remains moderately bullish. Therefore, whether it opens with a gap-up or down, it doesn't matter. If the initial market experiences sharp declines, we can anticipate a ranging market. On the other hand, if the market surpasses yesterday's high, we can expect a continuation of the rally with minor corrections."
Nifty Bank nifty & Fin nifty important levels.NSE:NIFTY
#NIFTY 30 Min chart analysis.
Price moving up but with a very low conviction. 19650 will be a make-or-break zone, on the upside look for a strong breakout of 19660.
And on the downside reversal 19550 zone should break.
In between the range choppy movement is expected.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
#BANKNIFTY 30 Min chart analysis.
Formed an inside bar on the day chart and today it traded in a very tight range.
Breakout above 45025 can take prices to the next resistances.
In case of downside reversal move break of 44760 is a must.
Today Nifty moved up and Banknifty didn’t, so there is divergence in both indices, this must clear before you see a good move on either side.
NSE:CNXFINANCE
Finnifty rising wedge formation near resistance line.
make or break point follow the chart
happy trading
keep learning
FinNifty weekly expiry on 08/08/23.Finnifty on the daily charts has formed a dojo after a gap up opening and has closed below the 20 ema.
DJI has given a bullish candle closing 400 points higher which gives a bullish move prediction in Indian markets too.
On the hourly charts market has consolidated in a range of 100 points, closing between both the moving averages. Consolidation in done and breakout can give nice target. There is a bullish diverge in RSI indicator too.
Even on 15 minute charts, it has closed between both the moving averages.
Support :- 19970, 19870
Resistance :- 20050-90, 20210
The market has consolidated and bullish trades can be initiated once 20090 levels are crossed.
Watch option premium as there will be time decay due to weekly expiry in FinNifty.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
FinNifty levelsFinNifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located at the bottom right. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 7th, the global market sentiment is slightly negative (based on the Dow Jones alone), while the market trend remains moderately bullish. Therefore, whether it opens with a gap-up or down, it doesn't matter. If the initial market experiences sharp declines, we can anticipate a ranging market.
On the other hand, if the market surpasses yesterday's high, we can expect a continuation of the rally with minor corrections."
Reliance Intraday By Professional Option's Trader🤑💲💸💰#We Make Only Profit.
#HDFCBANK #BANKNIFTY #NIFTY50 #NIFTY #SENSEX #TATA
Intraday trading involves buying and selling options within the same trading day, rather than holding them for an extended period. By adopting this approach, traders can make profits by capitalizing on the short-term price movements of the underlying asset.22-Apr-2023
Is option buying good for intraday?
Trading intraday options can be a great way to benefit from short-term market fluctuations and make quick money. Before you dive headfirst into the fast-paced world of intraday options, it's important to have a sound strategy with an understanding of risks and rewards.
The long black candlestick is 'the mother' and the small candlestick is 'the baby'. The smaller the second candlestick, the stronger is the reversal signal. The shadows of the second candlestick do not have to be contained within the first candle's body.
Which candle is best for option trading?
Here are the top 5 candlestick patterns that traders must know:
Doji. The Doji pattern is formed when the Open Price and Close Prices are the same or almost the same, and there is Low and High Price, so the candle has nearly nobody with a lower and upper wick. ...
Hanging Man. ...
Hammer. ...
Morning Star and Evening Star.
Technical analysis and options trading can go hand in hand. Many of the best practices for options trading come directly from technical analysis concepts. Technical analysis focuses on price. Fundamental analysis does not solely focus on price.
RBI Forex Reserve Grow is this Good or Bad ?
1st 140 Billion loss hua hai or ab 20 Billion Grow hua hai to hai to abi bhi loss mai
Gover..t abi losss mai hai
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 4th, there is no significant difference compared to the last session. However, the global market sentiment is slightly positive (based on the Dow Jones alone), and the market trend is bearish. There is a possibility of opening with a neutral to slight gap-up. Afterward, if the initial market breaks the previous day's closing price, it will reach the 38% Fib level. This level acts as a strong resistance, so there might be a rejection here. We can expect a continuation of the pullback only if the market breaks the 38% Fib level.
On the other hand, if the initial market experiences sharp declines, we can anticipate a continuation of corrections with minor pullbacks, but it should break the previous day's low."
#finnifty"Good morning! As of August 3rd, the global market sentiment is slightly negative (based on the Dow Jones alone), and the market trend is bearish. Therefore, whether it opens with a gap-up or down doesn't matter. If the initial market experiences sharp declines, we can anticipate a continuation of corrections with minor pullbacks (potentially breaking the previous day's low).
On the other hand, if the initial market undergoes some consolidation, there is a possibility of a 50 to 61% pullback (with the potential to break the 38% Fib level)."
Everyday Of The Week Is An Expiry Day | Impact Of 0 DTE Options After the latest circular from NSE, MidCPSelect Nifty which tracks a handpicked 25 stocks will have expiry date shifted from Wednesdays to Mondays. And BankNifty which tracks the top most banks in India will have expiries on Wednesdays instead of Thursdays.
This change in status-quo has created a situation wherein we have a daily expiry. Much similar to the 0 DTE (zero day to expiry) by CBOE in the US.
Many economists have published whitepapers on how this could impact the options trading industry, speculations, index movements. But we still have no clarity on how the future will unfold. You might already know how “options” as a financial instrument is a double edged sword due to the leverage it provides.
Let me try to voice my version of what will happen!
Stock markets have already caught the attention of the wanna be rich guys. Although options trading is a newer concept, stock market & betting has been here for more than 100 years. People generally buy stocks in the anticipation that they could sell it back at a higher cost and thereby profiting.
Most often these buys are not because they like the underlying company or have done the research of the firm but just to get rich quick.
Options trading is the next level of betting from stock trading. Options instruments CALL & PUTS give the ability of the buyer to handle a higher number of shares of the firm for a fraction of the total cost (for a limited time).
That limited time is the catch here. Every option instrument will expire on a predetermined date called expiry day. Whereas the stocks have no expiry dates. What this means is that if you have purchased CALL OPTIONS you expect the stock to move up real quick before the expiry, if it doesn’t you lose the premium paid. Whereas in stocks you have the privilege to hold the shares as long as you like.
The reason options were introduced was to hedge the owner of the shares against its short term fluctuations. For eg: If I own 100 shares of XYZ and I wish to hold this for the next 10 years, but a recent report says XYZ company has lost one of its licenses & the shares could tank. What I could do is buy PUT options of the firm so that my downside is protected for the short term.
When I decide to buy the PUT options someone has to take the counter position. It could be the market maker or a speculator.
The market maker, if he decides to sell that PUT option to me, has a net long exposure, which means he makes money only if the stocks stay as they are or move up. Technically no market maker likes to have a directional exposure, so he will immediately take another few trades to become delta neutral.
Or it could be a speculator who is just there to make money. This guy may not have a stock holding against the position he has taken. Most likely this person has the belief that stock XYZ is moving up.
Stocks still have a monthly expiry, which gives ample time for the buyer/seller of the option instrument to change or modify their long/short exposure according to the price action/news flow. Whereas Indices are now set with weekly & monthly expiries.
Earlier both Nifty50 and BankNifty expired on the same day ~ Thursday. So the speculation was either mostly on that one day or via overnight positions built up towards the expiry.
With the new changes 6 separate indices are set to expire on separate days of the week, which means a speculator has the opportunity to gamble into a long or short exposure every single day of the week.
We now know the speculator is only interested in making money provided his views/research is accurate. Honestly I still dont believe any retail trader is a match for the institutions with their supercomputers, mathematical modeling or the kind of talent they attract. So if someone has to lose money in this process, it has to be the lowest hanging fruit.
Since there are daily expiries, the retail trader is enticed into an opportunity to make easy money. The good thing is that overnight is not there, but this trader has to be knowledgeable enough on what he is getting into.
Both the size & count of betting will increase & its going to be a harvest for the Government, Brokers & Professional Traders. After a while it is going to be like any gambling sport or a lottery business.
Market makers will be glad to offer a wider bid/ask spread and profit, usually the end trader is not aware of this slippage.
Since the volume of trades are going to explode, there is a risk of risk-oversight. Let me try to explain.
Case1: Markets prefer to stay range bound — this is the best case for all the participants. Most often the day ends just like the day begins & there are no hefty options adjustments, roll up or roll down.
The premiums in the strikes will be normal (usually low)
Since the swings are normal, option strikes do not create unwanted build up of open interest (volumes will be as usual)
This scenario is safe for all the participants even though there is an equal amount of money to be won or lost.
Case2: If the markets start to pick a direction — it is going to have a spiraling effect which cannot be quantified by any mathematical modeling
If the markets are moving against a net sell position, the trader will start covering to reduce loss.
This will create a spike in open interest of that strike & nearby strikes.
Once the volumes begin to spike, more speculators will jump in creating premium mispricing.
When the option premium mis-pricing exists, arbitrageurs will enter the game.
Market makers will be glad to write options & counter balance it by going long or short in the underlying. This algo or HFT will further escalate the directional move.
This 2nd category will create a self perpetuating trap if left unchecked. The high frequency traders are usually computerized and do not stop if they see the directional movement picking up speed. These machines feed on this distress & usually suck the soul out of the retail traders. Well it’s not a fault, but the machines are engineered that way.
The indices would fall or rise for no real reason and could wipe out a select portion of traders due to their unlimited loss options exposure. And the next day this index could revert to normal as this fall/rise was just due to speculation & nothing to do with fundamentals.
A black monday or a flash crash could be normal and more frequent. And there are 2 instances where this could even translate into deeper wounds.
The same component stocks, almost in the same weightage are participating in adjacent expiries.
FinNifty on Tuesdays & BankNifty on Wednesdays
Nifty50 on Thursdays & Sensex on Fridays.
So if we had a big movement on a Tuesday, it could even set the stage for further acceleration on Wednesday as the same underlying component stocks were impacted.
Having said all these, I am sure there would be many think tanks who would have thought through all these & implemented some safety nets to protect the vulnerable subset of people. If the case1 scenario plays out it should be a hunting ground even for a commoner like you & me to make some money!