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FOMC

21 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - 19589 has to be taken out 22ndNifty Weekly Analysis Nifty has fallen 354pts ~ 1.76% between the last expiry and today. Interestingly the price action on 15th and 18th stands out as an isolated island. Almost 90% of the fall came in the last 2 days which has even changed the sentiment. Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For further down move we need that gap to be taken out on the downside just like how it was taken out on the upside. Only then the bears can bring the panic in the markets. Which translates into a 70pts+ gap down opening tomorrow. My stance has been changed from neutral to bearish with the first target 19815 and then 19747. If Nifty50 is unable to fall below 19895 in the morning session — I will have to change my stance back to neutral.” Everyday I write down the next day’s levels, targeted open, close etc - but never have I got it 100% right in the last many years. We had gap-down open and the encircled regions shows how the gaps were recreated on the downside just like we had it on the upside. Isolated islands are usually created when there are changes in sentiments overnight. Yesterday we had the FOMC meeting in the US and they decided to keep the interest rate as it is - source. What really unnerved the markets is their decision not to cut the rates till they win the battle against inflation. Ideally that is a negative global macro - and guess what our markets performed better than asian peers in spite of these news. You are already aware India - Canada tensions are rising and there was news about Halting Canadian Visa services. Still we fell only 0.8% ~ 159pts today. Japan fell -1.22%, China fell -1.24%, Hong Kong fell -1.45%, South Korea fell -1.75%. Our markets are in a different orbit of its own. On the 1hr chart - the weakness is visible - but the bears have not gained enough momentum. There is still no panic - VIX fell -2.79% @ 10.8175. Today’s price move is summarised in the first hourly candle - because the next 6 candles have not moved the needle by an inch. I am starting to doubt if the bulls have priced in all the information available? For tomorrow, I wish to maintain the bearish stance with the first target at 19672 and the second but strong target at 19589. Ideally the bears should be able to close the day below 19589 tomorrow and take out the 19310 early next week. One thing to remember is Nifty50 is still not bearish on the daily time frame whereas SPX is.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
Falling wedge highlights EURUSD as markets await FOMC MinutesEURUSD pares weekly losses within a fortnight-long falling wedge bullish chart formation ahead of Fed Minutes. The major currency pair’s rebound appears more interesting as it stays beyond the 200-EMA amid a steady RSI (14) line, suggesting further upside. However, the Euro bulls need to carve out the 1.0920 hurdle to confirm the bullish pattern pointing towards the theoretical target of 1.1100. However, the late June high of around 1.1010 and the yearly peak of around 1.1095 may act as an intermediate halt during the anticipated rise. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 200-EMA, around 1.0865 at the latest, will direct the EURUSD bears toward confronting the 1.0835-30 support confluence comprising the stated wedge’s bottom line and an ascending trend line from late May. It’s worth noting that a clear downside break of 1.0830 will make the Euro pair vulnerable to testing the early June swing high of around 1.0780. Additionally, the quote’s weakness past 1.0780 could direct it to the previous monthly low of near 1.0660. Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely preparing for a bullish move but the upside needs to cross the 1.0920 resistance and gain support from the dovish Fed Minutes to convince the buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 JUN 2023 ExpiryThe beast in banknifty got unleashed today, after a long gap banknifty options really started surging today! You wont believe the OTM prices went above the traded range of Wednesday, that too today being an expiry day! --- BankNifty Weekly Analysis During the current expiry week 9th to 15th June, banknifty shed 556 pts ~ 1.27%. You may not believe that 544pts i.e 97% of that came just in today's trade. --- Today's Analysis We opened gapup right at the resistance level and then started falling. The first 5mts itself shaved off 200+ points. From there we had a steady falling day with no pull back. The selling really aggravated at 13.50 when all of a sudden lot of traders unwound short positions in PE. BN was near 43700 then, the volumes in PE did suggest that few traders were running for cover fearing their position may go deep ITM. This really fueled the next move. We fell another 300pts in 90mts.  Nifty50 was in green till then, see the blue highlighted area - the selling intensified in N50 too. Nifty50 at 10.00 was roaring past the resistance level of 18762 and was looking unstoppable. For the first time since Dec 2022, N50 tried to shoot for ATHs. Banknifty had other plans, may be attributed to the FOMC meeting yesterday - which we will discuss shortly. --- 15mts has now confirmed a break from the trading range, the last time it broke on the downside was on 24 May, which it recovered by 26th. The pick-up in momentum after the range break also signifies unfinished business ahead. --- 1hr TF also shows the range breakout, but the chart is not bearish yet. There are supports at 43253 & 43012 ahead. If banknifty is not stopping there - then it will be an interesting case for the July series. Remember we will have expiries on Fridays from 7th of July. The split of N50 and BN to separate days will definitely improve speculation. --- The curious case of FOMC rate pause Yesterday US FED decided to keep the interest rates at 5.25%. Our RBI has kept the interest rate at 6.50%. Lets just analyze what this interest means for a foreign institutional investor. Assumption: FII is investing in India's debt instruments & not equity Investor has earmarked 100000 USD for investments. In US over a 1 year period his investment will grow to 105250 USD. Whereas if he invests in India it will grow to 106500 USD. Now investment in India has to be done in INR, so there is a currency conversion risk. Lets just calculate how much was the USDINR appreciation for the financial year it was ~ 8.23% So now Mr. Investor has 97735 USD left with him i.e. a opportunity cost of -7.51% if he chose India over his home country. The best way RBI can tackle this issue is either get the USDINR to depreciate or hike the repo rate to have a higher divergence than FED rate. to view all 6 charts visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 03 MAY 2023 - FOMCJust look at the 5mts chart of NSE:BANKNIFTY today - what do you see? I see the strength of the bulls. Even though the opening was gap-down and below the support line 43253, banknifty managed to scale back by 10.45. The first attempt was rejected - rightly so because NSE:NIFTY was looking weak and the market participants would have anticipated more selling pressure. Surprisingly banknifty did not have any selling momentum, by 14.30 the 43253 resistance was conclusively breached. Yeah, we did not close in green but just 39pts lower than yesterday's close. Having such a dichotomy with Nifty50 is not good for NSE:BANKNIFTY . We cannot have a situation where banknifty is crossing the all time highs whereas Nifty50 is 8 to 10% lower. One factor was the under performance by NiftyIT which is mirroring the US tech index. If we continue this outperformance by the banks vs IT - then the weightage of financial stocks will increase further diverging these 2 indices. --- On a generic note, I am quite surprised how the bank stocks in India are staying afloat when the US banks are under severe pressure. SP:SPF is down 22% from the ATH whereas Banknifty is nearing the ATH in India. --- Nifty50 did not have any negative price action today, it just stayed down after opening gap-down. We can interpret it as Nifty50 lacking buying strength. Today's FOMC meeting and FED interest rate decision is definitely going to move the markets globally. If FED raises rates - the banks in US will be under severe pressure. If FED maintains status quo - people will doubt its credibility in fighting inflation. However this was not visible on Nifty50 today, I seriously thought we will close in deep red today mirroring the SP:SPX from yesterday. --- 15mts TF, remember the rounded top formation we were talking about yesterday. Forget that, today's price action is not showing an interim top formation - the momentum is still too strong on the bull side. --- 1hr TF shows the price action much more clearly, instead of a top formation what got formed is a start of a new leg. A higher-low is visible and if we continue to take out 43500 in the next 2 sessions we will have its higher-high too. Technicals will work only if the fundamentals remain the same. It is quite unlikely that the fundamentals will remain the same for tomorrow as the FOMC meeting will have multi polar repercussions.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Rising wedge confirmation lures Gold bears on Fed dayAfter pleasing buyers for six consecutive weeks, Gold prices are finally on the bear’s radar even after bouncing off $1,900 round figure the previus day. The rising wedge confirmation and bearish MACD signals do favor the metal sellers ahead of the key event. However, the downbeat RSI and a likely dovish rate hike challenge the downside bias. That said, a horizontal area comprising the early month levels surrounding $1,865 appears as the immediate target during the metal’s further declines. Though, the 200-SMA and an upward-sloping support line from late November 2022, respectively near $1,862 and $1,855 could please the metal sellers during the theoretical target surrounding $1,825. Meanwhile, Gold’s recovery remains unconvincing below the stated wedge’s lower line, around $1,928 at the latest. Even so, the monthly high near $1,950 and the bearish formation’s top line, close to $1,960, might challenge the quote’s further advances. Additionally acting as an upside filter is the late March 2022 peak surrounding $1,966. In a case where the bullion stays firmer past $1,966, the odds of witnessing a rally towards the April 2022 high near $1,998 and then to the $2,000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. To sum up, Gold is ready to pare the recent rally but it all depends upon how well the Fed manages to entertain the Dollar bulls.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD juggles near six-month high ahead of Fed meetingDownbeat US inflation data propelled the EURUSD pair to the highest levels since June on Tuesday. However, the upper line of the one-month-old bullish channel, currently around 1.0670, probed the pair buyers at the multi-day top. Also challenging the Euro bulls is the overbought RSI conditions suggesting a pullback in prices. As a result, an upward-sloping trend line from the December start, close to 1.0520 at the latest, can’t be ruled out. However, 100-SMA and the bottom of the stated channel, respectively near 1.0450 and 1.0400, could challenge the pair sellers afterward. In a case where the Fed sounds too hawkish and the pair defies the bullish chart pattern, a slump towards the 200-SMA and then to the late October swing high, near 1.0275 and 1.0090 in that order, can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, successful trading beyond the immediate hurdle, namely the aforementioned channel’s top near 1.0670, could get another chance to retreat near the 1.0700 threshold due to the consistently overbought RSI. In a case where EURUSD bulls ignore RSI and cross the 1.0700 resistance, May’s peak near 1.0785 and March’s low surrounding 1.0805 could act as the last defenses of the pair sellers. That said, the pair’s sustained trading beyond 1.0800 may target a late April high near 1.0935 and the 1.1000 round figure. Overall, EURUSD bulls are likely to occupy the driver’s seat unless the US Federal Reserve appears too hawkish, which is less anticipated.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD buyers need validation from 1.0100 and FedDespite retreating from the 100-DMA during the last week, EURUSD defends the upside break of the 50-DMA and five-month-old descending trend line as traders await the Fed’s verdict on Wednesday. The major currency pair’s latest rebound also gains support from the firmer oscillators. As a result, bulls are hopeful of overcoming the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.0070. Even so, the previous monthly top surrounding 1.0095 and the 1.0100 hurdle could test the upside momentum before giving control to buyers. In that case, a run-up towards the horizontal resistance area comprising multiple levels marked since May 12, close to 1.0360, appears more likely to follow. Meanwhile, a downside break of the resistance-turned-support and the 50-DMA, surrounding 0.9880, could quickly drag EURUSD towards a five-week-long support line near 0.9780. Should the quote break the nearby trend line support, the 0.9670-60 support region will gain the bear’s attention before targeting the yearly low near 0.9535. Overall, EURUSD is up for reversing the downward trajectory established in June. However, it all depends upon how well the Federal Reserve policymakers can convince markets of their dovish hike.
by MTradingGlobal
Bearish megaphone keeps gold sellers hopeful on Fed dayGold holds lower ground near the yearly bottom as the market braces for the Fed’s rate hike. In doing so, the yellow metal remains inside a six-week-old trend-widening pattern. That said, the quote is likely to stay bearish unless crossing the $1,715 hurdle. Ahead of that, the two-month-long horizontal resistance area surrounding $1,696 and the $1,700 threshold could test the recovery moves. In a case where the metal prices rally beyond the $1,715 mark, the monthly high surrounding $1,735 could act as the last defense for the sellers. On the contrary, the lower line of the stated trend-widening formation called megaphone, around $1,642 by the press time, restricts the short-term downside of gold prices. Also acting as immediate support is the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April-August moves, near $1,619. It’s worth noting, however, that the metal’s weakness past $1,619 will make it vulnerable to testing April 2020 low near $1,572. Overall, gold is likely to remain bearish even if the Fed’s disappointment may trigger intermediate bounce.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebound appears overdue ahead of Fed’s showdownEURUSD holds onto the one-week-old sideways grind ahead of the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As a 0.50% rate hike is well-known, as well as priced-in, the Fed will have to supersede market expectations to stay ahead of the curve and keep US dollar on the throne. In that case, the 100% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of February-March, around 1.0485, holds the key to the south-run targeting the 2017’s yearly bottom surrounding 1.0340. However, the 1.0400 threshold will act as an intermediate halt while portraying the Fed’s superpower action. In a case where the US central banker chose to disappoint markets, by either meeting expectations of a 0.50% rate lift or resisting faster consolidation of policy, the EURUSD pair could witness the much-awaited rebound, as signalled by the oversold RSI line. The following recovery could quickly bounce back beyond the previous support line, around 1.0580, before challenging the 78.6% FE level surrounding 1.0630-35. During the quote’s run-up beyond 1.0635, the 1.0760 level comprising the 61.8% FE acts as the last defence for the buyers. Overall, EURUSD prices have witnessed notable downside in anticipation of the Fed’s larger-than-life move but an actual outcome will be crucial for the next moves.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers struggle inside rising wedge on Fed dayWhile a year-long resistance line has been testing gold buyers for one week, a six-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern teases sellers as markets brace for the Fed’s verdict. Given the sluggish RSI and receding bullish bias of the MACD, bears await a downside break of the $1,828 mark, comprising 50-SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of November-December downside. Following that, the lower line of the stated wedge near $1,816 becomes crucial as it holds the key to a slump towards September’s low near $1,721. During the fall, the 200-SMA level of $1,806 and $1,760 may offer intermediate halts. Alternatively, an upside break of $1,848 will lure buyers but an upper line of the wedge, around $1,851, may test the run-up towards the $1,900 threshold. Also acting as upside filters are the tops marked in November and March months of 2021, respectively around $1,877 and $1,916. On a fundamental side, the Fed is widely anticipated to hint for March rate hikes and balance-sheet normalization amid inflation fears. That said, a slight disappointment is enough for gold to rally towards $1,900 but the bears are so far trying to battle bulls amid hawkish hopes. Hence, it’s better to wait for the actual outcome.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal