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Gold : More decline ahead Gold plunged to a three-week low below 2650 today after the 2024 US Presidential election. The Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, won the contest, boosting the dollar demand and US Treasury bond yields. Gold price closed the last day with a very bearish candle on day time frame and seems like that price can make more decline in coming days...For today the idea is to wait for pullback on or before FOMC rate decision and then selling is seems to favourable. In higher side the fib golden zone is at 2717-34 (For the cycle 2790-2643) , so under this zone sell is good as we have to wait for reversal sign on higher time frame from low side .
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by iambalramkashyap
2
Bitcoin: BTCUSD extends recovery from 200-SMA to trim lossesBitcoin (BTCUSD) rises to a week’s high, continuing its rebound from the 200-SMA and breaking through the 100-bar simple moving average (SMA). BTCUSD bulls aim for a new three-month high! Along with a solid bounce from the 200-SMA, a positive RSI (14) and bullish MACD signals support BTCUSD’s push past the 100-SMA. This indicates potential for more gains, even though the RSI is nearing overbought territory, suggesting limited upward movement soon. Key technical levels to watch… With Bitcoin’s strong recovery from the 200-SMA and a successful run-up beyond the 100-SMA, buyers are ready to challenge a six-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $64,700. However, they may face hurdles at the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement of July-August downside near $65,700 and an upward trendline from late August around $66,900 afterward. On the downside, the 100-SMA around $63,300 is holding BTCUSD up, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support is near $62,200. That said, another key support is found at the 200-day moving average of around $60,700, with the psychological level of $60,000 serving as buyers' last line of defense. Recovery remains preferable… With Bitcoin bouncing back from key moving averages and a potential pullback in the US Dollar due to upcoming US inflation data and FOMC minutes, BTCUSD looks set for further upside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MTradingGlobal
1
GBPUSD: Post-FOMC optimism stays intact despite pre-BoE retreatGBPUSD consolidates Fed-induced gains as traders await monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England (BoE). That said, the Cable pair reached a fresh 30-month high after the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.50% rate cut that drowned the US Dollar across the board. Buyers stay optimist Although the Pound Sterling struggles to hold at a 2.5-month high, not to forget its failure to provide sustained breakout of a month-old horizontal resistance, the quote defends the mid-month breakout of a descending resistance line from late August, now support. Also keeping buyers hopeful is the pair’s recent rebound from the 100-SMA and steady RSI conditions. It’s worth noting, however, that the bearish MACD signals and a likely status-quo of the BoE could join the key upside hurdle to challenge the bulls. Technical levels to watch For GBPUSD buyers, the immediate resistance to watch is a month-old range between 1.3230 and 1.3240 if the BoE sounds hawkish. After that, the focus will shift to the 1.3300 level. If the Cable price stays above 1.3300, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) levels around 1.3305 and 1.3375 could attract buyers. On the flip side, GBPUSD sellers need a clear break below the 1.3150-45 support zone, which includes the 100-SMA and a month-old previous resistance line, to weaken buyer’s confidence. If they succeed, the next tests will be the 1.3100 level and the 200-SMA at 1.3025, as well as the key psychological level of 1.3000. Upward bias seems favorable Whether due to an expected hawkish pause from the BoE or the market's response to the Fed's dovish surprise, along with GBPUSD trading above the 1.3150-45 resistance-turned-support, the pair is likely to stay bullish unless the UK central bank surprises traders.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD: Bulls struggle to keep control on FOMC DayEURUSD picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s retreat from a month-old horizontal hurdle as traders prepare for the all-important US Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision. In doing so, the Euro pair defends last week’s U-turn from a 200-SMA while making rounds to a four-week-long bearish channel’s top line. Buyers are cautious Along with the strong rebound from the 200-SMA, a positive RSI (14) supports the bullish outlook for the EURUSD pair. However, the key resistance area, a potential bearish signal on the MACD, and the cautious market sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting may challenge any upward momentum. Key technical levels For EURUSD bulls to take charge, they must break above the key horizontal resistance zone around 1.1145-55, especially if the Fed signals a dovish stance. If they succeed, the focus will shift to the yearly peak near 1.1200. After that, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) levels of August-September moves at 1.1215 and 1.1265 will be next, followed by the previous yearly high of 1.1275. Conversely, any pullback in EURUSD should find strong support at the 200-SMA level around 1.1045. Even if it falls below this, the monthly low of 1.1000, the lower boundary of the bearish channel near 1.0980, and an upward trend line from late June around 1.0930 will likely hold the bears back before they gain control. Sellers have a long and bumpy road ahead… Even if buyers face challenges, EURUSD sellers still have a tough road ahead before taking control. Key obstacles include the Fed's potential consecutive rate cuts in 2024 and a rising support line around 1.0930, which are both important factors to watch.
by MTradingGlobal
Dollar IndexHello and welcome to this analysis With FED all set to start the rate cut cycle from today's FOMC meet, DXY is expected to enter the potential reversal zone (PRZ) of not one but two bullish Harmonic patterns, namely, bullish AB=CD and bullish Crab, likely forming a triple bottom in the weekly time frame. The PRZ is between 100 - 99.60 while the patterns would be considered invalid below 99.50, for a possible bounce (if not reversal) till 103. When will it enter the PRZ by? Will depend totally on hawkish/dovish, FED Chairman Jeremy Powell is in his statement today. Regards
TVC:DXY
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
Gold: Pullback remains elusive beyond $2,570, US data, Fed eyedGold snaps three-day winning streak while retreating from an all-time high, marked the previous day, as traders await the US Retail Sales and monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve (Fed), scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. In doing so, the precious metal eases from the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of its July-September moves. Buyers remain optimist Gold’s recent dip comes as the RSI (14) moves back from the overbought zone and marked failure to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension level on prices. Sellers are also eyeing a potential bear cross on the MACD. Despite this, gold remains above the two-month-old resistance line near $2,570, keeping buyers hopeful with dovish expectations from the Fed. Technical levels to watch For intraday sellers, the $2,570 level is key as it has turned into support. If gold continues to decline, the 50% and 38.6% Fibonacci Extension levels around $2,560 and $2,540 could be next obstacles. Below these, the bears might target the month-old resistance line and an upward trend line from early August, near $2,525 and $2,515, respectively. However, gold buyers will stay optimistic unless the price clearly falls below the 200-SMA level at $2,487. On the flip side, if gold breaks above recent peaks around $2,590, it could target the $2,600 level before approaching the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension at $2,610. If gold buyers push past $2,610, the focus will shift to the 100% Fibonacci Extension near $2,650 and then the $2,700 mark. Sellers need a strong motive to retake control Overall, gold remains bullish despite the recent pullback. For sellers to gain control, they would need not only a drop below the 200-SMA but also strong US data and a hawkish stance from the Fed.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Bitcoin: BTCUSD bulls take a breather as FOMC week beginsBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been under pressure for the third consecutive day as traders cautiously approach a crucial week. After briefly halting a two-week losing streak, Bitcoin is struggling once more as everyone eyes the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September policy announcement set for Wednesday. Bitcoin buyers lack conviction Be it the repeated reversal from a seven-week-old descending resistance line or bearish MACD signals, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) sellers appear flexing muscles ahead of this week’s key US Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision. It’s worth noting, however, that a weeklong bullish trend channel joins a convergence of 50 and 100 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to restrict the short-term downtrend of the top-tier cryptocurrency pair. Key technical levels to watch Firstly, a convergence of the key EMAs and the aforementioned bullish channel’s bottom line offers an important challenge to the BTCUSD sellers around the $58,350-200 zone. Following that, Bitcoin sellers can aim for an eight-day-old horizontal support surrounding $55,600. If the bears keep the reins past $55,600, the monthly of nearly $52,550 and the $50,000 threshold will be in the spotlight. On the upside, Bitcoin will first encounter resistance around $60,000 and a downward trend line near $60,300. A successful break above this could lead to testing the bullish channel's top line around $61,900 and the $62,000 mark. BTCUSD sellers to keep the reins Bitcoin sellers remain in control, with the cryptocurrency facing significant resistance and a long, uncertain path ahead.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY sellers keep eyes on 144.00 and FOMC MinutesThe USDJPY pair is currently recovering from its lowest point in two weeks and breaking a three-day losing streak. The US Dollar is bouncing back from a yearly low as traders await the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Despite this bounce, the Yen pair is still trading below important Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and shows bearish signs from the MACD indicator, keeping sellers optimistic. If the USDJPY continues to drop, it might soon test the 144.00 support level, which has held for about 12 days. A fall below 144.00 could push the pair towards the July low of around 141.70. However, the Yen pair will need to move past the 50% Fibonacci Extension near 141.30 before targeting 140.00 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension around 139.40-35. On the upside, the 50 and 100 EMAs are likely to cap the USDJPY’s immediate gains, with resistance levels around 147.10 and 148.50. Beyond that, the pair might face resistance at the previous weekly high near 149.40 and the 150.00 level. If it breaks above 150.00, the final resistance points are at the 200-EMA level around 151.15 and the late July swing low near 151.95. In summary, while the USDJPY is currently recovering, the bears remain in control as traders await key news.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD traders should focus on 1.0790, US inflation and FedEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in six weeks as the pair traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Also important are the final readings of Germany’s inflation data for May and speeches from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials. In doing so, the Euro pair keeps the week-start fall beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a one-month-old ascending support line, a part of the short-term bullish triangle. Not only the downside break of the key SMA and rejection of the bullish chart pattern but the bearish MACD signals and an absence of the oversold RSI (14) also keep the pair sellers hopeful. The same highlights February’s low of around 1.0695 as immediate support to watch during the quote’s fresh downside. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line from October 2023 near 1.0650 will act as the final defense of the buyers. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 1.0650, it becomes vulnerable to refresh the yearly low, currently around the 1.0600 threshold. On the contrary, softer US inflation and the Fed’s inability to convince the policy hawks despite avoiding the looming rate cut can trigger the EURUSD pair’s recovery. In that case, a convergence of the 200-SMA and support-turned-resistance line around 1.0790 will be in the spotlight. Should the Euro buyers manage to provide a daily closing beyond the 1.0790 hurdle, as well as cross the 1.0800 round figure, the 50% Fibonacci ratio of its July-October 2023 decline, around 1.0865, and then to a five-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0915, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that the buyers will face heavy resistance past 1.0915 as the aforementioned triangle’s top line of 1.0920 will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio near 1.0960 and an 11-month-old falling trend line surrounding 1.1010 to restrict the further upside. Overall, EURUSD remains on the bear’s radar beneath 1.1010 while 1.0790 acts as an immediate key upside hurdle.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold grinds within $15 trading range as Fed decision loomsGold price licks its wounds around the mid-$2,100s while portraying a choppy move between the one-week-old descending resistance line and $2,148 support confluence comprising the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the previous yearly high. In doing so, the XAUUSD depicts the market’s cautious mood ahead of the all-important monetary policy decision from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) while consolidating the previous weekly loss, the first in four. It’s worth noting that the overbought RSI (14) line and an impending bear cross on the MACD favor downside bias for the precious metal. In that case, a daily closing beneath $2,148 becomes necessary for the sellers to retake control. Following that, the late December 2023 peak of around $2,090 will be a quick favorite for the bears before the tops marked during early 2024 around $2,065. It’s worth noting that the $2,100 round figure also acts as a downside filter for the bullion. On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the one-week-old descending resistance line surrounding $2,163 could quickly propel the Gold price toward the recent all-time high of near $2,195. Should the quote remain firmer past $2,195, the $2,200 round figure will challenge the XAUUSD bulls. It should be observed that an upward-sloping resistance line from May 2023 also highlights the $2,200 threshold as an important hurdle toward the north. Overall, the Gold price is likely to depict a downside move unless the US Federal Reserve (Fed) disappoints the US Dollar bulls by resisting the hawkish performance.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY lures bears as FOMC, NFP week beginsUSDJPY makes rounds to 148.00 early Monday as the key week comprising the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting and the US employment report begins. That said, the Yen pain snapped a three-week uptrend in the last while fading the bounce within a three-week-old triangle. While the hawkish hopes from the Fed and likely firmer prints of the US job numbers seem to tease the US Dollar bulls, hopes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) exit from ultra-easy policy and positioning for the US data/events lure sellers. It’s worth noting, however, that the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the aforementioned triangle’s bottom line, respectively near 147.50 and 147.35, could test the bears before welcoming them. Even so, the 200-EMA level of around 146.10, quickly followed by the 146.00 round figure, will act as the final defense of the buyers. Meanwhile, a one-week-old descending resistance line surrounding 148.50 guards immediate recovery of the USDJPY pair. Following that, the previously stated triangle’s top line, near 149.30 by the press time, will be important to watch for the quote’s further upside. In a case where the Yen pair buyers keep the reins past 149.30, the 150.00 threshold and November’s peak of around 151.90 are likely to gain the market’s attention. Overall, the USDJPY pair buyers lack momentum as the top-tier US data/events loom.
by MTradingGlobal
14th Dec ’23 - BankNifty breaksout again and hits ATH Bull-RUNBankNifty Analysis If you read the postmortem report yesterday, you might have seen how the W pattern formed yesterday and BankNifty respecting the ascending trend line turned out. BankNifty had a different start today vs Nifty because we opened 0.95% gap-up and then rallied another 0.8% to hit the all time highs. 4mts chart - click here The 2nd rally was equally intense as the first. And once we hit the ATH - BN turned flat and had a sideways trend till close. Remember we discussed how gap-up and gap-downs are the major weapon used by the big-boys to scare the s**t out of the option sellers? US markets rarely does the gap-ups or gap-downs, I mean the index. Whereas the majority of the gains/loss in our markets are done via gaps. FED’s rate cuts promise in 2024 looks like more of a political play than an economic one. A rallying market and portfolios in green sounds pretty good for the incumbent leaders. Imagine trying to get re-elected when there is economic depression/recession? 63mts chart link - click here The stance on BankNifty has been revised to bullish. I have no targets in mind as we are at the ATH. The first support to look at will be 47588. Meanwhile, the charts look perfectly like in the textbook.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
14th Dec ’23 - Markets break out yet again! Nifty50 ATH 🐂🐂🐂Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “We have the Nifty expiry tomorrow and as it stands the OTM premiums are pretty low indicating the option sellers are not expecting a big more tomorrow. In case we pick a direction tomorrow, the short sellers (PE or CE) will have to run for cover and that could spike the option premiums. I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow also and wish to go bullish above 21037 and bearish below 20702.” 4mts chart link - click here. Guess what happened today? The CE short-sellers ran for cover as the pre-open indicated a mega gap up. Rightly so, we opened 182pts higher after FED announced plans to cut rates thrice in 2024. US markets were overjoyed and its spillover effects fell on Indian markets as well. Since the opening was above my target of 21037, I had to choose the bullish direction. You wont believe how hard NiftyIT rallied today, +3.5%. The main reason we had a retracement over the last 2 to 3 sessions was NiftyIT. And its reversal helped Nifty50 hit a new ATH of 21210.9 today. 63mts chart of NiftyIT - click here See the chart of NiftyIT. Between 12th and 13th December we fell 3.25% ~ 1098pts. And from those lows, it rallied 4.89% ~ 1599pts including today’s gains of 1156pts. Not just IT, almost all the sectors were in green today except for maybe NiftyMedia. 63mts chart - click here Nifty has shown it is stronger than thought by bouncing off the channel's upper boundary. For tomorrow, my stance is revised to bullish. Since we are at ATH, I do not have an upper target, but my support level will be 21037.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
USD / CAD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK1) USD /CAD moves downside to 1.3700 on weaken US Dollar. 2) The bearish outlook for USD / CAD remain below the 50, 100 AND 200 moving average ( 1 hour TF ). 3) Major support level seen at 1.3655. Technically, the bearish outlook for USD/CAD remains intact as the pair holds below the 50- and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the four-hour chart. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located in the bearish territory below 50, which means the path of the least resistance of USD/CAD is to the downside.
Short
by tradewith_ritik
2nd Nov ’23 - When NEWS flows, technical analysis goes for spinNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has accumulated 299pts ~ 1.59% points. Most importantly it has broken away from the crucial support of 18880. As it stands Nifty is below the resistance of 19310 - but with the momentum it has gathered, seems like it will get tested this weekly series. Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Check out the daily time frame, does that not look bearish to you? Since we had a red candle today also, it seems like the bearish momentum could build up pretty quickly. We have the FOMC interest rate decision at 23.30 today and US FED comments may spook or lift the markets. Definitely, that will spill over to our markets tomorrow. As of now, SPX is in green trading with gains of 0.53%. Until 18880 is not broken, I wish to maintain my neutral stance.” Nifty opens today with a gap up of 138pts ~ 0.73%, rallies to 19175 by 09.40. This was totally sponsored by the FED with its FOMC decision & the commentary that followed. Markets in the US got the feeling that this was going to be the last of the hikes and were overjoyed. We need to get some background on this topic to understand the real impact. Even if the FED says no more hikes, it doesnt mean the rate cuts will begin soon. If the rates are held at this 5.25 to 5.5% for longer - there is nothing bearish like that. So the reaction that is seen now could just be a temporary phenomenon. The longer FED keeps the rates high - the higher the money that will get sucked out of equity. Also, watch the small and medium-scale businesses - they are the first to go under when the cost of borrowing stays high. No, I am not spoiling the bullish party - I am just being practical. Coming back to India, RBI cannot cut rates when the US holds its line. If we do, more money will flow out from India, further depreciating INR. If RBI also holds the rate at this level long enough - our SME universe will also be impacted. On the 1hr TF, Nifty has formed an island today. The 3rd hourly candle was quite RED - but the fall was arrested soon enough. The levels have not changed from yesterday, the first resistance is at 19226 and the 2nd one is at 19310. I am staying neutral till 19226 is not taken out, seems like it could be even done in the forenoon session. Visit my tradingview minds section, for updates during trading hours tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
1st Nov ’23 - Some weakness still persisting - Nifty PostmortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since we retraced the 38.2% level of 19226 today and the reluctance to go up might be confidence-building for the bears. Also the 23.6% level forms a base for further movements. The issue is that we cannot go outright bearish now, we need further proof of that. Ideally, the 18880 support has to be taken out and that too pretty quickly. Till then I wish to maintain my neutral stance.” There is some weakness still lingering around. Despite positive closing by US markets yesterday - we were reluctant to go green today. If you look at the 5mts chart above - the price action continues its journey from yesterday. By 10.00 we hit 19019, but miraculously we gained back those points. From 12.30 to 13.15 we started falling again breaking the last swing low to 19006. Then from 13.45 to close we fell again to a new swing low of 18973. BankNifty was staying pretty strong due to which a big fall was avoided on Nifty. This also ensured that Nifty50 did not break the 18880 support level below which we had to go short. Check out the daily time frame, does that not look bearish to you? Since we had a red candle today also, it seems like the bearish momentum could build up pretty quickly. We have the FOMC interest rate decision at 23.30 today and US FED comments may spook or lift the markets. Definitely, that will spill over to our markets tomorrow. As of now, SPX is in green trading with gains of 0.53%. Until 18880 is not broken, I wish to maintain my neutral stance.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
EURUSD challenges bullish channel formation on Fed daySofter prints of the Eurozone inflation joined the overall risk-off mood and slightly upbeat US data to drag the EURUSD pair down on Tuesday. Adding strength to the bearish bias are the hopes of witnessing one more rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) during 2023, as well as the bearish MACD signals and steady RSI. However, a one-month-old ascending trend channel, currently between 1.0710 and 1.0540, provides headwinds to the Euro sellers. In a case where the major currency pair breaks the 1.0540 support and defies the bullish chart pattern, the yearly low marked in October 1.0450 and the August 2022 peak of around 1.0370 will lure the bears afterward. On the flip side, the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) surrounding 1.0615 guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair ahead of the stated channel’s top line, close to 1.0710. It’s worth noting that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s August-October downside, near 1.0750, will act as an additional upside filter for the bulls before taking control. Following that, a quick run-up towards the late August month’s high of around 1.0950 can’t be ruled out. Overall, EURUSD challenges the four-week-old recovery as markets await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting results on Wednesday.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold near to ATHGold maintaining the bullish structure and moving higher day by day and now trading above 2000.On Daily TF also it is under bullish pressure and maintaining the HH structure. This week main event is FOMC and before that we can expect some range bound trend but as you know that current gold bullish rally is also supported by middle east war. On Intra day TF watch the Pivot Level carefully above this we can look for buy opportunities and we can target last year High . *(No candle closing under PDL on Daily TF)
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by iambalramkashyap
21 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - 19589 has to be taken out 22ndNifty Weekly Analysis Nifty has fallen 354pts ~ 1.76% between the last expiry and today. Interestingly the price action on 15th and 18th stands out as an isolated island. Almost 90% of the fall came in the last 2 days which has even changed the sentiment. Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For further down move we need that gap to be taken out on the downside just like how it was taken out on the upside. Only then the bears can bring the panic in the markets. Which translates into a 70pts+ gap down opening tomorrow. My stance has been changed from neutral to bearish with the first target 19815 and then 19747. If Nifty50 is unable to fall below 19895 in the morning session — I will have to change my stance back to neutral.” Everyday I write down the next day’s levels, targeted open, close etc - but never have I got it 100% right in the last many years. We had gap-down open and the encircled regions shows how the gaps were recreated on the downside just like we had it on the upside. Isolated islands are usually created when there are changes in sentiments overnight. Yesterday we had the FOMC meeting in the US and they decided to keep the interest rate as it is - source. What really unnerved the markets is their decision not to cut the rates till they win the battle against inflation. Ideally that is a negative global macro - and guess what our markets performed better than asian peers in spite of these news. You are already aware India - Canada tensions are rising and there was news about Halting Canadian Visa services. Still we fell only 0.8% ~ 159pts today. Japan fell -1.22%, China fell -1.24%, Hong Kong fell -1.45%, South Korea fell -1.75%. Our markets are in a different orbit of its own. On the 1hr chart - the weakness is visible - but the bears have not gained enough momentum. There is still no panic - VIX fell -2.79% @ 10.8175. Today’s price move is summarised in the first hourly candle - because the next 6 candles have not moved the needle by an inch. I am starting to doubt if the bulls have priced in all the information available? For tomorrow, I wish to maintain the bearish stance with the first target at 19672 and the second but strong target at 19589. Ideally the bears should be able to close the day below 19589 tomorrow and take out the 19310 early next week. One thing to remember is Nifty50 is still not bearish on the daily time frame whereas SPX is.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
Falling wedge highlights EURUSD as markets await FOMC MinutesEURUSD pares weekly losses within a fortnight-long falling wedge bullish chart formation ahead of Fed Minutes. The major currency pair’s rebound appears more interesting as it stays beyond the 200-EMA amid a steady RSI (14) line, suggesting further upside. However, the Euro bulls need to carve out the 1.0920 hurdle to confirm the bullish pattern pointing towards the theoretical target of 1.1100. However, the late June high of around 1.1010 and the yearly peak of around 1.1095 may act as an intermediate halt during the anticipated rise. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 200-EMA, around 1.0865 at the latest, will direct the EURUSD bears toward confronting the 1.0835-30 support confluence comprising the stated wedge’s bottom line and an ascending trend line from late May. It’s worth noting that a clear downside break of 1.0830 will make the Euro pair vulnerable to testing the early June swing high of around 1.0780. Additionally, the quote’s weakness past 1.0780 could direct it to the previous monthly low of near 1.0660. Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely preparing for a bullish move but the upside needs to cross the 1.0920 resistance and gain support from the dovish Fed Minutes to convince the buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 JUN 2023 ExpiryThe beast in banknifty got unleashed today, after a long gap banknifty options really started surging today! You wont believe the OTM prices went above the traded range of Wednesday, that too today being an expiry day! --- BankNifty Weekly Analysis During the current expiry week 9th to 15th June, banknifty shed 556 pts ~ 1.27%. You may not believe that 544pts i.e 97% of that came just in today's trade. --- Today's Analysis We opened gapup right at the resistance level and then started falling. The first 5mts itself shaved off 200+ points. From there we had a steady falling day with no pull back. The selling really aggravated at 13.50 when all of a sudden lot of traders unwound short positions in PE. BN was near 43700 then, the volumes in PE did suggest that few traders were running for cover fearing their position may go deep ITM. This really fueled the next move. We fell another 300pts in 90mts.  Nifty50 was in green till then, see the blue highlighted area - the selling intensified in N50 too. Nifty50 at 10.00 was roaring past the resistance level of 18762 and was looking unstoppable. For the first time since Dec 2022, N50 tried to shoot for ATHs. Banknifty had other plans, may be attributed to the FOMC meeting yesterday - which we will discuss shortly. --- 15mts has now confirmed a break from the trading range, the last time it broke on the downside was on 24 May, which it recovered by 26th. The pick-up in momentum after the range break also signifies unfinished business ahead. --- 1hr TF also shows the range breakout, but the chart is not bearish yet. There are supports at 43253 & 43012 ahead. If banknifty is not stopping there - then it will be an interesting case for the July series. Remember we will have expiries on Fridays from 7th of July. The split of N50 and BN to separate days will definitely improve speculation. --- The curious case of FOMC rate pause Yesterday US FED decided to keep the interest rates at 5.25%. Our RBI has kept the interest rate at 6.50%. Lets just analyze what this interest means for a foreign institutional investor. Assumption: FII is investing in India's debt instruments & not equity Investor has earmarked 100000 USD for investments. In US over a 1 year period his investment will grow to 105250 USD. Whereas if he invests in India it will grow to 106500 USD. Now investment in India has to be done in INR, so there is a currency conversion risk. Lets just calculate how much was the USDINR appreciation for the financial year it was ~ 8.23% So now Mr. Investor has 97735 USD left with him i.e. a opportunity cost of -7.51% if he chose India over his home country. The best way RBI can tackle this issue is either get the USDINR to depreciate or hike the repo rate to have a higher divergence than FED rate. to view all 6 charts visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram