POLYCAB - Weekly Channel pattern - Read description carefullyPOLYCAB - Although the company has corporate governance issues, there could be good swing trading opportunities in the stock.
My thoughts (not a trading recommendation): 2 scenarios -
I'd go long if the stock takes support at the channel bottom with good price action & reversal candlesticks. My stop loss will be if the channel breaks.
I'd go short if the channel breaks with good volumes and my stop loss will be if the stock comes back into the channel.
Fomo
Traders' Inverse Relationship with Breakouts⚡Retail traders often find themselves entangled in false breakouts or breakdowns. However, it's important to recognize that taking advantage of breakout opportunities isn't inherently flawed. The key lies in being mindful of the associated risks and never trading beyond what is considered an acceptable level of risk. By doing so, traders can protect themselves from unnecessary losses and navigate the market more wisely.
⚡Another crucial aspect of successful trading is planning for potential failures. While the solution seems simple – cutting losses and exiting the trade – it's essential to define what constitutes failure beforehand. Identifying these conditions before entering a trade allows traders to establish clear criteria for when it's time to step back and avoid further losses.
⚡To increase their chances of success with breakout trades, traders can consider adopting a strategy of trading pullbacks after a breakout has occurred. Typically, stocks pull back to retest their breakout levels, presenting attractive trading opportunities. While this approach can mitigate some failures, it's important to acknowledge that no trading strategy is foolproof. There may be instances where traders miss out on certain opportunities due to a lack of pullbacks, leading to feelings of "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO). Remember, trading involves inherent uncertainties, and no strategy guarantees a 100% success rate.
⚡Lastly, traders should keep in mind that support levels offer potential buying opportunities, while resistance levels indicate potential selling opportunities. Being attentive to these key levels can assist traders in making informed decisions and improving their overall trading performance.
Regards
Do hit boost 🚀 for motivation.
Q&A_ What is Unitech saga?Namaste!
Unitech was the stock which was going at a speed of >400 KMPH in a road, where many many real-estate companies already driving, to win the race. The people on-board enjoyed the ride. Many people became MTM (mark to market) millionaires, especially the fully exposed people who had only 2-3 companies in their portfolio. Some people get on-board feeling FOMO (fear of missing out).
Anyways, I am comparing the real life vehicle driving, with the stock market, especially performance of the stock prices.
You see, in real life, if you drive at a speed of <40 KMPH, you are safe. But, if you drive at such a high speed, accident is certain especially if the road is crowded . Sure, you don't encounter accident and drive happily until you meet with any unexpected scenario.
2008 was the time, when the people, even the regulators thought that real estate will keep going up and up. But, it's not possible. In life and business, downturns and slow-downs are crucial for further progress. "Mistake are important to learn from it".
In simple terms, the stock prices has to fall to rise again. Like in a natural hierarchy, nature compromises deer to feed tiger/lion. It's a zero-sum game, anyone has to lose money for making someone's profit/gain. The stock prices has to fall to look reasonable for savage investors.
Q: Why the stock crashed so hard?
A: I am not going to tell what exactly happened at the fundamental levels, promoters, mismanagement, debt, promises, etc., but I only want to explain one thing, when there is greed and unreasonable returns in a very short period of time, it's better to stay away. Greed always traps the unknowledgeable and emotional people, especially in the stock markets.
Q: What you can learn from it?
1. Diversification: The people who could have only 2-3 companies in their whole portfolio, or forgot to diversify, has been hit hard. Even if they could have bought it at ~Rs 500, have lost it fully (LTP Rs 1.65).
2. FOMO: It's the fact that the retail people enter at near the top . Of course it's because of FOMO (fear of missing out), and greed to be rich quick. I have often seen, the big-rich people and hedge fund managers are very happy with >20% average annual return . But as a retail person, we want to double our investment every year. That sound too greedy and eventually erodes our capital in the long run.
3. A plan: People don't have a plan. What to buy, when to buy, when to sell (of course you should not sell at a loss: read more on my previous articles).
Fun-fact: "Diversification over than 32 companies does not reduce your risk, even it increases as you add more and more companies".
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment does not guarantee a fixed return due to volatile nature of markets and may result in a loss. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
how to buy/sel gold, stocks or cryptocurrencies at a good price?How to buy gold, stocks or cryptocurrencies at a good price in a bear market?
There are usually two trading strategies, it depends on whether the market is in a bullish or bearish phase.
The common sentiment of many people in an uptrend, they think that the market will continue to increase so they can buy at any price, leading to fomo psychology and many people losing heavily.
Conversely, in a bear market, many people are afraid that the market will continue to go down and will not buy a good price, or when the price drops to a certain level, they will buy because it is a low but realistic price. the market continues to go down
How to avoid the above mistakes?
These are 2 reliable technical indicators for everyone. it is not bollinger bands or rsi indicator.
What is its effect?
"AromB Market Index""
One is to help you know if the market is near a bottom or near a top.
The second is the market going down or going up.
"AromB PL"
three is the price at which you can best buy in a bear market or the price at which you can best sell in a bull market
The combination of the two indicators above is probably a perfect match.
Do not use elliot or wyckoff waves to predict prices, which will lead to subjective errors.
LIFE OF A NOOB TRADERHello !!
Welcome to the trading psychology of a noob trader. We all know most people lose money in stocks as they do not have a proper idea about investing and invest randomly in any stock without looking technically or fundamentally.
In order to stay in the market, one needs to be patient and hold the horses when the market dumps as nothing goes down forever. Most of the new traders buy stocks that are overhyped and when it starts dumping they sell them rather than accumulate more of them.
In the long term, the market eventually goes up and one needs to know the law of compounding and invest more when the market dumps but the opposite happens and they lose out on their capital. The poorer get poor and the richer get richer as they have mastered the secret of long-term compounding.
Invest Early and slowly !!
Trading -- Five Common Psycho-HurdlesFear of Missing Out
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You missed a great opportunity yesterday. You take it as a mistake and don’t want to repeat it. So, today you enter in a hurry, deviating from your edge/strategy thinking that you will nail it this time. But that might not be the case.
Missing an opportunity, because it was not in-line with your back tested strategy, was perfectly fine. You were still following the right path. But after missing a couple of rallies, you decided not to miss the next one. This leads to disaster.
If you are missing too many opportunities and want to deal with it, then think of modifying and back testing your strategy.
Revenge Trading
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You take a long trade in the morning and stopped out in the just 15 minutes. You don’t digest this loss and want to recover quickly. So, you not just reverse your position but also double it. In the next candle market again stops you out, multiplying your losses.
Your first loss was still ok to bear with. But reversing and doubling was an absolute blunder. If you enter into a position as, per your edge, and got stopped out then consider it as a drawdown that one can face in any strategies. There are no peak without a valley. If you miss a valley, you will surely miss the peak too.
Greed Entering your Mind
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“If you do not book profits, you will book loss.”
You need to define two things while trading: risk involved and potential gain. If you have taken a trade and its not in favor, just do not average to bring down the cost. This oversize your position and eventually multiplies the risk.
Also, if you have set targets (price target or profit amount target), just exit (at least partially) there. Taking out profit from the market is of utmost importance as this is the prime objective of this business.
Waiting for too long, when in profit, may bring you back to breakeven in a volatile event. But if your strategy says to trail a profitable position, its perfectly fine to do so as you will be locking your profits.
Paper loss is Not Real
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Suppose you entered a trade at 500 and your stop loss is 490. The stock starts turning down and your PnL is in red. The stock is at 492 but your brain says its loss. This impression is so powerful that you could not stop yourself from closing the trade.
You placed the SL as per your plan. Any loss that you see before your SL hits is just a paper loss. You SL defines your real loss.
Lack of Discipline
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All the above hurdles result into lack of discipline, which stops you from being profitable.
You have to have a strategy/edge in the market with some back testing. Then you need to strictly follow that edge. You may tinker a bit with your edge if it is needed.
Discipline is nothing more than religiously following your plan of action. Putting efforts to train your brain against all the above psychological hurdles can make you a disciplined trader over a period of time.
There might be more psychological hurdles but I think these are the crucial ones to deal with.
Do like and share for such posts in future.
Good volume Breakout. Learning only, read whole description.Dear Traders,
Syngene International had given breakout in previous session. But still there was a chance of resistance in it as per shown in graph. Also, you all can see that breakout was clear and volume was considerably higher than average. So, we could have took trade in it today morning or on Friday before market closing. I missed it because of having personal work. But please learn from it and trade when you find next setup in other stocks.
Hope you all enjoying 10% from our all previous posts. There are almost 15 Posts of mine and you all could have made 100% till date if you have booked profits at right time with few stop losses. Trading without Stop Loss is Impossible.
A moment of pain worth life-time Glory.