12th Dec ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - India's inflation at 5.5%BankNifty Analysis
BankNifty had a better price action today than Nifty. In the sense that the down move was more stable and compelling. Since yesterday we said we would love to go neutral below 47000 - we are changing the status now.
4mts chart link - click here
Even though the day’s low was only 47004, I would prefer to go with the status change because of 2 reasons.
FinNifty had a dichotomy with BankNifty today - this may be expiry-related.
After 11.00 AM, BankNifty had no attempt to go up, it was just too tired to even try.
We got the inflation data today, India’s Retail Inflation 5.55 per cent in November 2023. source PIB.
Vegetables 17.7% inflation, fruits - 10.95%, cereals - 10.27%, pulses - 20.23%. Quite surprised to see fuel and light deflated to -0.77% even without a fuel price drop. Crude oil has fallen 40% and yet we do not have a cut in petrol or diesel prices. Inflation hits the most for the poorest segment of the population where the marginal propensity to consume is higher.
63mts chart link - click here
BankNifty is also above the ascending channel, only if it drops below the lower limit we can really get into a bearish zone. But looking at the price action today, I would like to play tomorrow’s expiry on a neutral tone.
