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Fundamental Analysis

Gold approaches key upside hurdle ahead of US PCE InflationAfter hitting an all-time high, gold prices are losing momentum as buyers await the US September Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation. Bulls may slow down, but are still in the game On Thursday, FOMC Chair Jerome Powell's reluctance to discuss monetary policy joined the market’s dovish bets on the US central bank to propel the Gold price, especially amid the rush for a haven amid uncertain markets. Technically, the bullish MACD signals add strength to the upside bias for the precious metal. However, the overbought RSI (14) and nearness to an upward-sloping resistance line from December 2023, close to $2,695 at the latest, challenge the bullion’s further advances. Technical levels to watch With the overbought RSI indicating a $2,695 hurdle for gold buyers, the $2,700 level serves as an additional barrier to monitor for better trading opportunities. Beyond that, a potential surge toward the 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of February-June moves, near $2,757, can’t be ruled out. Gold sellers should watch for a clear break below the four-month resistance line at $2,620. If this occurs, the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci Extension levels around $2,578 and $2,522 could draw in bears. Key targets below $2,522 include $2,467 and $2,399. That said, a break below the convergence of the 200-SMA and a year-long support line at $2,288 could signal a trend change for traders. What next? A positive surprise from the US Core PCE Price Index could spark the anticipated pullback in gold prices. However, the dovish Fed stance and strong technical support may prevent XAUUSD bears from gaining control.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
XAUUSD - Financial Insights 26/09/2024Summary: Things are getting worse, slowly but worse, XAUUSD will reach 3K at the end of this year 1. Title: Xi’s Economic Adrenaline Shot Is Only Buying China a Little Time Source: Bloomberg Problem: China's economy faces a deflationary slump due to a property market crash, weak consumer demand, and trade tensions. Solution: The central bank launched aggressive easing measures, including interest rate cuts, more liquidity, and housing incentives. Result: Markets surged, but economists warn these actions provide only temporary relief without deeper reforms. Prediction: Further fiscal policies and structural reforms are needed to avoid long-term stagnation and drive sustainable growth. 2. Title: China Cuts One-Year Policy Rate by Most Ever in Stimulus Drive Source: Bloomberg Problem: The Chinese economy faces potential deflationary pressures, prompting the need for significant monetary stimulus. Solution: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the medium-term lending facility rate by 30 basis points to 2%, initiating a broader stimulus package to boost economic confidence. Result: The yuan strengthened, and Chinese stocks gained, with expectations for further monetary easing, including future rate cuts on reverse repurchase notes. Prediction: Analysts anticipate additional rate reductions and liquidity measures to support the economy, aligning funding costs more closely with market rates in the coming months. 3. Title: OECD Upgrades UK Growth by Most in G-7, Warns on Inflation Source: Bloomberg Problem: UK faces high inflation, with the BOE struggling to meet its 2% target. Solution: The government plans to increase investment, focusing on infrastructure and the green transition. Result: UK growth forecast upgraded to 1.1% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, but inflation remains high. Prediction: BOE may delay interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation and wage pressures. 4. Title: Global Economy Moves Beyond Inflation Crisis to Stable Growth Source: Bloomberg Problem: The global economy faces risks from geopolitical tensions, soft labor markets, and potential financial market upheaval as inflation eases. Solution: Central banks can cautiously cut interest rates while monitoring data closely, avoiding rapid reductions. Result: OECD projects global growth to stabilize at 3.2% for 2024, with moderating inflation expected in G20 nations by the end of 2025. Prediction: While growth forecasts for the US and euro area remain steady, the OECD warns of significant risks that could impact the global economic outlook. 5. Title: Danish Central Bank Slashes Inflation Forecasts as Wages Cool Source: Bloomberg Problem: The Danish labor market pressure has eased, but there are concerns about potential inflationary risks from the government's proposed 2025 budget. Solution: The central bank has reduced its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025, anticipating slower wage growth due to a less tight labor market. Result: Inflation is now forecasted at 1.3% for 2024 (down from 2.2%) and 2.1% for 2025 (down from 2.6%), indicating a more stable economic environment. Prediction: The central bank warns against loosening fiscal policy too soon, as it could destabilize the current balance in the labor market. 6. Title: BOE’s Greene Calls for ‘Cautious’ Approach to Rate Cuts Source: Bloomberg Problem: Strong wage growth and resilient economic activity pose risks, prompting concerns about inflation remaining sticky in the UK. Solution: BOE policymaker Megan Greene advocates for a cautious and gradual approach to interest rate cuts, ensuring that inflationary pressures have subsided before making significant changes. Result: The market reflects skepticism about immediate rate cuts, with current pricing suggesting a cut in November but a 60% chance of a follow-up in December. Prediction: Greene emphasizes the need for ongoing observation of wage trends and consumer spending to gauge future monetary policy adjustments. 7. Title: Fed's Bumper Rate Cut Revives 'Reflation Specter' in US Bond Market Source: Reuters Problem: The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cuts raise concerns about re-igniting inflation in the U.S. economy. Solution: The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut aims to recalibrate its approach, focusing on maintaining a strong labor market while managing inflation. Result: U.S. bond yields have risen as investors reassess inflation expectations, reflecting uncertainty over future economic conditions. Prediction: A gradual return to higher inflation could impact bond markets, and the central bank may need to adjust its strategy if inflation does not remain subdued. 8. Title: Investing.com Poll: Where do you see gold prices by the end of 2024? Source: Investing.com Problem: Gold prices have recently surged, driven by the Federal Reserve's rate cut and investor sentiment. Solution: Analysts expect ongoing rate reductions, which make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset. Result: Gold prices have rallied over 5% this month, defying historical trends for September. Prediction: While traders anticipate potential cooling in gold returns, any downside is likely to be limited, suggesting a strong long-term outlook for the metal. 9. Title: With Fed Easing Underway, What's Next for Markets? UBS Weighs In Source: Investing.com Problem: The recent rate cut by the Fed raises questions about future economic conditions and market stability. Solution: UBS believes the rate cut signals a willingness to support the economy, but emphasizes the need for clear labor market data to ensure a soft landing. Result: Markets have reacted positively to the rate cut, but uncertainty remains regarding the ultimate impact on growth and inflation. Prediction: A "Roaring '20s" scenario is considered an upside risk, but market volatility could re-emerge as investors seek clarity on the economy's trajectory. 10. Will Fed policy trigger a US recession? Claudia Sahm: Does not believe the US is currently in a recession, despite her namesake "Sahm rule" being triggered. Is concerned about the direction of economic indicators, with payroll gains slowing and unemployment rising. Puts higher odds of recession now than earlier in the cycle, but doesn't provide a specific percentage. Believes the Fed is at risk of making an "unforced policy error" if they don't cut rates soon enough, potentially leading to an unnecessary recession. Bill Dudley: Puts 50-60% odds of a recession in the next 12 months. Believes the Fed is "a bit behind the curve" in reducing interest rates given increased economic risks. Thinks a soft landing is possible but historically difficult for the Fed to achieve. Expects any potential recession to be mild due to strong household and business balance sheets. Rob Kaplan: Seems less concerned about recession risk than Dudley. Believes the job market is softening as intended, but not "falling out of bed." Thinks the Fed may be tactically behind by "a meeting or two" but not strategically behind. Expects the Fed to likely cut rates in September, November, and December, despite potentially hawkish rhetoric. 11. Title: Powell Emerges Stronger After Leading Fed to Big Rate Cut Source: Bloomberg Problem: Federal Reserve officials were divided on how aggressively to cut interest rates, amidst weak jobs data and inflation pressures easing. Solution: Chair Jerome Powell advocated for a significant 50 basis point rate cut to safeguard against potential risks to the labor market. Result: The majority of Fed officials supported the larger cut, reflecting Powell's strengthened leadership and consensus around his approach to manage economic risks. Prediction: If labor market data continues to disappoint, another substantial rate cut could occur in the future, as Powell aims to ensure a soft landing for the economy. 12. Title: Gold price consolidates below all-time peak, awaits Fed Chair Powell’s speech Source: Investing.com Problem: Gold prices are confined below their all-time peak due to rising US yields and a strong USD, creating uncertainty in the market. Solution: Traders are awaiting comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other influential FOMC members, which may influence expectations for another 50 bps rate cut in November. Result: Current gold prices are stable around $2,650, supported by dovish Fed expectations and geopolitical tensions, despite technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions. Prediction: Upcoming economic data and Powell’s speech will be critical in determining gold's direction, with potential fluctuations as traders evaluate the likelihood of further rate cuts and their impacts on market sentiment.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheChartist_Code2trade
EURUSD: Bulls need validation from 1.1200 and Fed Chair PowellEURUSD is gaining support after falling from a 14-month high, as buyers wait for comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. Upside remains favored The EURUSD pair is holding above a two-week rising support line and the 200-SMA, along with an upward trend line from late June, which keeps buyers optimistic. The steady RSI (14) also indicates a slow upward movement. Technical levels to watch Even with key support levels helping the EURUSD pair and the RSI suggesting an upward trend, the bulls may struggle to break through the horizontal resistance around 1.1200. If they succeed, the next targets could be the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions (FE) of the pair’s August-September moves, respectively near 1.1215 and 1.1265. The previous yearly high around 1.1275 is a crucial point for the bears; if that breaks, prices could reach the 2022 peak of 1.1495. Meanwhile, EURUSD sellers should look for a clear drop below the immediate rising support line around 1.1125 to enter the market. However, the 200-SMA and a three-month trend line near 1.1080 and 1.0950 will be important obstacles for sellers. If the price stays below 1.0950, it could fall further toward the previous monthly low of 1.0780. Charts, Powell in the spotlight Along with the technical factors, comments from Fed Chair Powell will be important for EURUSD bulls. The recent rise is driven by market expectations of two more 0.50% rate cuts from the US central bank in 2024. If Powell dismisses these expectations, which seems unlikely, a downward reversal in Euro prices could happen.
by MTradingGlobal
1
Understanding Intrinsic Value and Its Impact on Options Trading What is Intrinsic Value? Intrinsic value is a key concept in options trading that reflects the real, inherent worth of an option. It is the difference between the underlying asset's current price and the option's strike price. For options, intrinsic value can be classified as follows: Call Options: Intrinsic value = Current Price of Underlying Asset - Strike Price. A call option has intrinsic value when the underlying asset's price is above the strike price. Put Options: Intrinsic value = Strike Price - Current Price of Underlying Asset. A put option has intrinsic value when the underlying asset's price is below the strike price. Effects on Option Buying and Selling Intrinsic Value and Option Premium: The intrinsic value contributes to the option’s premium (price). An option with intrinsic value will typically trade at a higher premium than an out-of-the-money option (which has no intrinsic value). When buying options, higher intrinsic value indicates that the option is more likely to be profitable. Decision Making: Buyers: When considering purchasing options, traders often look for options with significant intrinsic value, especially if they believe the underlying asset will continue moving in a favorable direction. Sellers (Writers): Option sellers may prefer to sell options with little or no intrinsic value, aiming to profit from time decay (the reduction in the option's premium as it approaches expiration). Risk Assessment: Options with high intrinsic value are typically less risky for buyers because they already have built-in profit potential. However, they also come at a higher cost. Sellers of high intrinsic value options face a greater risk if the underlying asset continues to move in their unfavorable direction. Market Sentiment: Intrinsic value can also reflect market sentiment. A significant intrinsic value in a call option may suggest bullish sentiment, while high intrinsic value in a put option may indicate bearish sentiment. Traders can gauge market psychology and make informed trading decisions based on how intrinsic values shift. Expiration Considerations: As options near expiration, intrinsic value becomes increasingly important. An option that is in-the-money (ITM) will have intrinsic value, while an out-of-the-money (OTM) option will not. Understanding this can help traders decide whether to exercise, sell, or let an option expire worthless. Conclusion:- Intrinsic value is a fundamental component of options trading that directly influences buying and selling strategies. By understanding how intrinsic value works and its implications on option premiums, traders can make more informed decisions. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a beginner, grasping this concept will enhance your ability to navigate the options market effectively.
NSE:NIFTY1!Education
by rakeshreddym
6
Gold Price Analysis September 25Fundamental Analysis Gold rose to a fresh record high of $2,670 an ounce on Wednesday after a surprise drop in U.S. consumer confidence data on Tuesday raised expectations of more aggressive policy easing and deeper interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates are good for gold because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, making it more attractive to investors. The People's Bank of China's biggest stimulus move since the Covid pandemic announced on Tuesday, which included steep cuts in borrowing costs as part of a package of measures to revive the slumping economy, also supported gold prices. Escalating tensions in the Middle East after Israel resumed bombing Hezbollah targets in Lebanon further boosted safe-haven flows into the yellow metal. Technical Analysis Gold is sideways in a narrow range and waiting for clear buying and selling forces at the support level of 2650 to see how the price reacts when the US session enters. If it cannot break through 2650, a new ATH can be established today. Pay attention to the resistance zones at the top of 2670-2680 and see the price reaction in this zone to SELL. Important support is at the 2640 zone Trading signals BUY GOLD zone 2650 SL 2645 BUY GOLD zone 2640 SL 2635 SELL GOLD zone 2670 SL 2675 SELL GOLD zone 2680 SL 2685
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Ramco cements ltd., Looking going; short term investmet; Add this to watchlist and wait for entry.👁️‍🗨️ For short term investment ; Leave a " Like If you agree ".👍 . Wait for small retracement & daily candle to close above - "840". Trade carefully untill ENTRY level. . Entry: 840 / 780 Target: 870-915-1040-1100 sl: 815 (840) / 780 (765) major stoploss / support: 780. . Enter only if market Breaks "Yellow box" mentioned. . . Don't make complicated trade set-up.📈📉 Keep it " simple, focus on consistency "💹 Refer our old ideas for accuracy rate🧑‍💻 Follow for daily updates👍 . Refer old posted idea attached below.
NSE:RAMCOCEMLong
by TheNuraTrading
1
GBPUSD: Overbought RSI, key resistance test buyersGBPUSD bulls are pausing at their highest level since February 2020, marking six days of gains despite a slow market atmosphere. That said, the Pound Sterling is facing a liquidity squeeze as we approach key data and events this week, which could impact its upward momentum at these multi-month highs. Pullback appears imminent but bulls can keep the reins Apart from the market’s anxiety ahead of this week’s key catalysts, the overbought RSI (14) line and a 10-week-old ascending resistance line, close to 1.3430 at the latest, suggest consolidation in the GBPUSD prices. Important technical levels A pullback in GBPUSD seems likely, with key short-term support levels at the 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci extensions of the quote’s August-September moves, respectively near 1.3375 and 1.3300. However, the previous monthly high near 1.3265 and the 21-SMA at 1.3190 are important, as they align with the bottom of a bearish wedge pattern near 1.3140, which could act as a final defense for buyers. On the flip side, for buyers to regain control, they need to break through the 1.3440 resistance. If they succeed, GBPUSD could target the February 2022 peak of around 1.3645 and the 2022 high of 1.3748. A sustained move above 1.3750 could even lead to a challenge of the psychological level at 1.4000. All eyes on US data/events Technical indicators for GBPUSD suggest a pullback may be on the horizon, even as recent U.S. factors favor ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts throughout 2024. Therefore, key insights from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index— the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—on Friday will be vital for determining the market's direction.
by MTradingGlobal
Breaking Out, Supporting 200 EMA in Accul. ZoneNSE:HINDCOPPER is breaking out of key levels with strength respecting 200 EMA, which was accumulated between 290 and 320 Zones. With China's Stimulus and Rate Cut ExpectationsCopper Prices have risen. Nifty Metal also Went up Today. Disclaimer: This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:HINDCOPPERLong
by Karanshah137
Bouncing from a crucial accumulation zone with volumes.NSE:TATASTEEL Bouncing from a crucial accumulation zone with significant volumes. 147-157 Will be the Key accumulation zone, with an upside of 168 to 185 Zones. The Metals Sector is in Favour With FED Rate Cuts and China Rate Cuts. Keep a Watch. Disclaimer: This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:TATASTEELLong
by Karanshah137