Futures
ONGC: Chart set up and trading strategy
ONGC
Observations
- we are looking at daily candlestick chart pattern
- In Jan 2023 stock faced resistance around 151-152 odd levels
- mid Feb we see a breakout
- currently the stock is holding on above 151 odd levels
set up opens up doors for upside up to 166-168 odd levels
SL If stock is closing below 150 on daily charts
I have gone with a trading strategy which gives me complete protection below 152.
Focus on your Risk Management and plan your trade accordingly.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Is Nifty in a downtrend for 8-13 monthsNifty
If we look at the overall chart structure, prima facie it looks like Nifty has started a downtrend from Dec 2022.
Currently, Nifty is trading below 21 day EMA, 63 day EMA and now also below 252 day EMA
If Nifty weekly closing is below 17430, then it may signify that Bears are in control of the market as of now.
Above 17430 Nifty too Nifty may face another stiff resistance around 17604-17620 odd levels and final resistance looks likely to be around 17800 odd levels. So Bulls have an uphill task.
Below 17280 may potentially open doors for further downslide towards 16900 odd levels in the short term.
The structure can take Nifty down to around 16000 odd levels by September 2023.
Important levels on the upside in the short term
17430-17450 / 17604-17620 / 17800 odd levels
Important levels on the downside in the short term
17331 / 17280 / 17080 / 16900 odd levels
Focus on Risk Management and Plan your trade accordingly...!!!
Take care and trade safely...!!!
Take care & trade safely...!!!
Nifty: Nifty expiry Target of 17564 done for us!!!Nifty
17564
If you have been following me,
Nifty has respected most of the levels identified with the help of Technical Analysis
The yellow zone above 18000 has been drawn long back. You can check my previous post
Thereafter, I have been suggesting this case: if Nifty starts trading below the blue line then probability is very strong for Nifty testing the red line.
I had given a figure of Nifty closing below 17836-17854 odd levels could be a cue of Nifty testing 17564.
We cannot time the market but when time comes we can sure make the most of it.
I was expecting this test to happen on Thursday but market has it's own way. It has done that today itself. However it gave ample opportunity to entry. We had positioned earlier with a Bear Call Spread strategy. When Market gave signals by breaking below the Blue line we took some aggressive bets as well by Buying Mar series Put options as well. Yesterday Nifty closed a tad below 17836 levels at 17826.
Results are in front of you... How doing your study well can reward you... We have booked profits in stages today with complete profit booking done when Nifty came to 17564
This is not a case of any fresh trade but a post to make you understand that when times are tough study will help you and can keep you ahead .
Invest your time in learning...!!!
Trust my analysis has been of help...🙏
Like and Follow To trade with me...!!!
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Nifty closing below the blue trendline and Monthly expiry viewNifty
As suggested earlier Nifty closing on last Friday suggested battle of Bulls and Bears still in balance. The importance of 17965 was highlighted... Nifty opened gap up exactly at that levels but Bulls are looking nervy as it couldn't sustain above that. The 2 hourly candles gave a close of 17959 and 17964
- Now On Hourly charts Nifty has closed below the blue trendline
- On the upside 17965 / 17996-18030 is very crucial resistance zone
- On the downside 17836-17854 if taken out then it potentially opens gate for further downside up to 17564 till Feb expiry.
Take care & safe trading....!!!
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Learn to earn
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: How I am looking at closing. Did my analysis helped? Nifty
- When Nifty was at 18060-18065 odd levels short was recommended.
Currently Nifty is down 170 odd points.
For Positional play, today's close is very important
- Watch out for 17860-17800 odd levels on the downside. If taken down, it could trigger more selling pressure. Bears might start tightening their grip
- Between 17860-17965 odd levels and the Battle of Bulls and Bears is still in balance
- above 17965 Bulls might have an upper hand
- going forward closing above 18035 on daily charts and I would consider exiting my short position
- below 17800 doors might open up for fall up to 17484 odd levels
Do Like and Share
Follow for more trading ideas from me
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: At upper end of resistance band. Taking calculated shortNifty
In my last update, it was suggested that on the down side 17860 is important level to watch out for and that Nifty has a high probability of testing 18030 odd levels in a day or 2.
Next day, On a 15 minute candlestick pattern, Nifty made a closing low of 17861 and bounced back immediately and then made a closing high (15 min candle) of 18023 odd levels.
Both levels worked very well.
Today Nifty has opened gap up and is trading at the upper end of the yellow resistance band.
Now is the testing time... If Nifty sustains above the yellow resistance zone then possibly Nifty might head further towards 18200 / 18400 odd levels.
Unable to sustain would suggest less Buying interest above 18000 and that would give an upper hand to Bears to go short again.
Remember this rally has been led by short covering by FIIs.
There has to be follow up buying for the rally to be sustainable.
As suggested in previous post, I was ready to see this level and on signs of rejection would be taking further action.
- Nifty is trading below it's opening price
- Nifty is trading below VWAP
- Reliance and ICICI Bank on expected lines showing profit booking at resistance levels mentioned in their respective post.
Given the cues, Now Adding to my short position (again it is hedged position).
I would be closely watching Friday's close. I could be wrong and I am willing to take a calculated risk at current levels.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Chart setup, chart view and trading strategyNifty
Chart set up
Since Jan 27, Nifty has traded for 12 days inside the candle body of 27 Jan 2023.
Chart view
Whether the breakout is real? The real challenge would come above 18000. Whether it is able to sustain above that.
On the downside watch out for 17860 odd levels. If that level is taken out, Nifty might fall towards 17600 / 17400 odd levels and below 17400 further down towards 16800 can not be ruled out.
My trading strategy :
Bear Call Spread strategy for Mar series
Sell Nifty 29 Mar 2023 series in 2 tranches
18200 Call option currently around 214 -215 &
Buy 18500 Call Option currently around 98-100
Net Premium receivable 115-116 points (Rs 5750-5800) per strategy lot
On a margin requirement, it gives a profit potential of approximately 18.2% till 29 Mar 2023.
It has an inbuilt risk cover for a rise up to 18315 till 29 Mar expiry.
There is a possibility of Nifty heading towards 18030 odd levels in 1-2 days.
If Nifty struggles above 18000 then I would use the 2nd part to sell.
Plan your trade accordingly...!!!
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Asian paints - At crucial levelsThe chart shows that the stock is trading at multiple supports. if reverses from here in coming trading sessions may go to the levels of 2890/3010. Sustaining below 2690 for a couple of days will show the weakness. keep an eye.
Only for learning and sharing purposes, not a bit of trading advice.
All the best.
Nifty: Budget time and chart set upNifty
Chart set up
- In the last 2 days Nifty has closed in positive territory, however it has found it difficult to close above 50% of last red candlestick which comes at 17740 odd levels
- a lot of resistance between 17740-18140
- on the lower side Nifty has a risk of falling towards 17331 / 17188 / 17096 odd levels
Derivative Data
- FIIs have gone in to the Budget day with negative bias
My view
Given the data and chart set up, I'm not too optimistic about the reaction to Budget announcement.
Trading strategy
I would be playing this market defensively.
- Trade with low capital
- Reduce Long positions
- Take calculative short positions which would have inbuilt protection till 18250 odd levels
Trust you would find the analysis and insights helpful.
Take care and play safe
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty Jan 2023 expiry view and my trading strategyNifty
Chart analysis
Jan F&O series has been completely rangebound between 17761-18265 (just 504 points range or a mere 2.8% range).
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Although Nifty was very volatile during this time moving up one day and down the next and making it difficult to trade, it worked out smoothly for our Short strangle Strategy recommended earlier (Selling 17800 Put and 18300 Call with 406 points for the taking)
If any one has taken position, profit booking should be considered.
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Important levels going forward
Important levels to watch out for on the upside 18096 / 18120 / 18160 / 18202
On the downside 18038-18013 / 179520 / 17858 / 17786-17733.
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My trading strategy
Now that we have understood the important levels, I would be closely watching out for 18096-18160 levels on the upside. If Nifty gets resisted then I might look to sell Call options in Feb series with a SL at 18250 spot levels
Trust you find the analysis and insights helpful.
To trade with me, hit the Like button and Follow
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Tata Steel: Technical Analysis at it's very best...!!! 🙂🙂I have been trading Tata Steel since October 2022 and In the month of November this is what was posted for Tata Steel
The stock was trading at 104.75
- Target given was 113 / 118 / 122
- also had suggested the importance of Green Line acting as support ( Click on the above chart for detailed analysis of November 2022)
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You can see now that Tata Steel has respected the levels identified with the help of Technical Analysis to perfection
- green line provided the support
- yellow zone acted as resistance for a good time
- once above that, today it has given a big breakout trading 6% up for the day at 119.45
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Our expectation was Tata Steel to hit our targets around mid December. It has achieved it in 1st week of January 2023. Not bad I guess....
In this difficult market, the idea has provided a nice 15% profit in little less than 2 months.
Fixed Deposits will take 2 years to give that kind of returns.
What more do you want from Technical Analysis. I sincerely hope the idea has helped you guys.
If bought earlier, consider to book partial profits and Trail SL to 116. Book full profits as we get closer to red Line of Resistance.
Let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful.
Do hit the Like button (itna haq toh banta hai 🙂) and Follow for more ideas like these...!!!
Take care & happy trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be