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Nifty: At upper end of resistance band. Taking calculated shortNifty In my last update, it was suggested that on the down side 17860 is important level to watch out for and that Nifty has a high probability of testing 18030 odd levels in a day or 2. Next day, On a 15 minute candlestick pattern, Nifty made a closing low of 17861 and bounced back immediately and then made a closing high (15 min candle) of 18023 odd levels. Both levels worked very well. Today Nifty has opened gap up and is trading at the upper end of the yellow resistance band. Now is the testing time... If Nifty sustains above the yellow resistance zone then possibly Nifty might head further towards 18200 / 18400 odd levels. Unable to sustain would suggest less Buying interest above 18000 and that would give an upper hand to Bears to go short again. Remember this rally has been led by short covering by FIIs. There has to be follow up buying for the rally to be sustainable. As suggested in previous post, I was ready to see this level and on signs of rejection would be taking further action. - Nifty is trading below it's opening price - Nifty is trading below VWAP - Reliance and ICICI Bank on expected lines showing profit booking at resistance levels mentioned in their respective post. Given the cues, Now Adding to my short position (again it is hedged position). I would be closely watching Friday's close. I could be wrong and I am willing to take a calculated risk at current levels. Take care & safe trading...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTYShort
by indiamarketoutlook
2
Nifty: Chart setup, chart view and trading strategyNifty Chart set up Since Jan 27, Nifty has traded for 12 days inside the candle body of 27 Jan 2023. Chart view Whether the breakout is real? The real challenge would come above 18000. Whether it is able to sustain above that. On the downside watch out for 17860 odd levels. If that level is taken out, Nifty might fall towards 17600 / 17400 odd levels and below 17400 further down towards 16800 can not be ruled out. My trading strategy : Bear Call Spread strategy for Mar series Sell Nifty 29 Mar 2023 series in 2 tranches 18200 Call option currently around 214 -215 & Buy 18500 Call Option currently around 98-100 Net Premium receivable 115-116 points (Rs 5750-5800) per strategy lot On a margin requirement, it gives a profit potential of approximately 18.2% till 29 Mar 2023. It has an inbuilt risk cover for a rise up to 18315 till 29 Mar expiry. There is a possibility of Nifty heading towards 18030 odd levels in 1-2 days. If Nifty struggles above 18000 then I would use the 2nd part to sell. Plan your trade accordingly...!!! Take care & safe trading...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTYShort
by indiamarketoutlook
Nifty: Budget time and chart set upNifty Chart set up - In the last 2 days Nifty has closed in positive territory, however it has found it difficult to close above 50% of last red candlestick which comes at 17740 odd levels - a lot of resistance between 17740-18140 - on the lower side Nifty has a risk of falling towards 17331 / 17188 / 17096 odd levels Derivative Data - FIIs have gone in to the Budget day with negative bias My view Given the data and chart set up, I'm not too optimistic about the reaction to Budget announcement. Trading strategy I would be playing this market defensively. - Trade with low capital - Reduce Long positions - Take calculative short positions which would have inbuilt protection till 18250 odd levels Trust you would find the analysis and insights helpful. Take care and play safe Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTYShort
by indiamarketoutlook
Nifty Jan 2023 expiry view and my trading strategyNifty Chart analysis Jan F&O series has been completely rangebound between 17761-18265 (just 504 points range or a mere 2.8% range). ___________________________________________________________________________ Although Nifty was very volatile during this time moving up one day and down the next and making it difficult to trade, it worked out smoothly for our Short strangle Strategy recommended earlier (Selling 17800 Put and 18300 Call with 406 points for the taking) If any one has taken position, profit booking should be considered. ____________________________________________________________________________ Important levels going forward Important levels to watch out for on the upside 18096 / 18120 / 18160 / 18202 On the downside 18038-18013 / 179520 / 17858 / 17786-17733. _____________________________________________________________________________ My trading strategy Now that we have understood the important levels, I would be closely watching out for 18096-18160 levels on the upside. If Nifty gets resisted then I might look to sell Call options in Feb series with a SL at 18250 spot levels Trust you find the analysis and insights helpful. To trade with me, hit the Like button and Follow Take care & safe trading...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTYShort
by indiamarketoutlook
2
Tata Steel: Technical Analysis at it's very best...!!! 🙂🙂I have been trading Tata Steel since October 2022 and In the month of November this is what was posted for Tata Steel The stock was trading at 104.75 - Target given was 113 / 118 / 122 - also had suggested the importance of Green Line acting as support ( Click on the above chart for detailed analysis of November 2022) _______________________________________________________________________________________________ You can see now that Tata Steel has respected the levels identified with the help of Technical Analysis to perfection - green line provided the support - yellow zone acted as resistance for a good time - once above that, today it has given a big breakout trading 6% up for the day at 119.45 _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Our expectation was Tata Steel to hit our targets around mid December. It has achieved it in 1st week of January 2023. Not bad I guess.... In this difficult market, the idea has provided a nice 15% profit in little less than 2 months. Fixed Deposits will take 2 years to give that kind of returns. What more do you want from Technical Analysis. I sincerely hope the idea has helped you guys. If bought earlier, consider to book partial profits and Trail SL to 116. Book full profits as we get closer to red Line of Resistance. Let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful. Do hit the Like button (itna haq toh banta hai 🙂) and Follow for more ideas like these...!!! Take care & happy trading...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:TATASTEEL
by indiamarketoutlook
Tata Steel: Showing signs of strengthTata Steel In my previous take I had suggested a Call short position given the set up at that time being bearish. That strategy played out well... Now the stock is at same level, however, In the current set up, - the stock is trading above 21 day EMA and 63 day EMA - the stock has tested the time and so far is managing to stay above the May 2022 low The stock is showing signs of strength. - Once above 252 day EMA which is currently around 107, the stock can potentially move towards 113 / 118 / 122 (Time looks ripe for the stock to retest the red line of Resistance Pattern gets invalidated if closing below the green line on weekly closing basis or for 3 consecutive days. Take care & safe trading..!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:TATASTEELLong
by indiamarketoutlook
Nifty: Wait for clarity to emerge before directional trade Nifty On 29 Dec expiry day, I had suggested a Long trade which was squared off once Nifty touched 21 day EMA. It's there in the timeline. Now, we are looking at Daily candlestick chart pattern 1. Nifty yo-yoing between 21 day EMA (Currently around 18252) and 63 day EMA ( around 18083) 2. Given breakdown below the blue trend line and now retesting it 3. Resistance area blue line and 21 day EMA 4. 63 day EMA and yellow horizontal zone providing support for time being 5. No clear direction in Nifty as of now... _______________________________________________________________________________________ Trigger points that can give direction - Result season to begin soon - Budget expectations to be built in _______________________________________________________________________________________ We have a non directional trade still active which is in profits of roughly 76 points as of now. We continue to hold it and look to adjust in case we sense a direction emerging. _______________________________________________________________________________________ In case of a Breakout we are looking at 18720 odd levels as our target level in case of a breakdown we are looking at a possibility of roughly 17294 odd levels. _______________________________________________________________________________________ To trade with me, Do Like and Follow for getting more trading ideas like these...!!! PLs note: Logic behind using 21 day EMA and 63 day EMA instead of standard 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA - In a month we have 30 days. - barring Saturday / Sunday we have roughly 22 days - 1 holiday session factored in per month - That gives us 21 trading sessions in a month - Multiply by 3 months we get 63 days For me, this represents 1 month and 3 month average trade more precisely, than standard 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA. You are free to follow your own instincts and what works best for you...!!! Trust you find this useful. Take care & happy trading...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTY
by indiamarketoutlook
Nifty: Wait for clarity to emerge before directional trade Nifty On 29 Dec expiry day, I had suggested a Long trade which was squared off once Nifty touched 21 day EMA. It's there in the timeline. Now, we are looking at Daily candlestick chart pattern 1. Nifty yo-yoing between 21 day EMA (Currently around 18252) and 63 day EMA ( around 18083) 2. Given breakdown below the blue trend line and now retesting it 3. Resistance area blue line and 21 day EMA 4. 63 day EMA and yellow horizontal zone providing support for time being 5. No clear direction in Nifty as of now... _______________________________________________________________________________________ Trigger points that can give direction - Result season to begin soon - Budget expectations to be built in _______________________________________________________________________________________ We have a non directional trade still active which is in profits of roughly 76 points as of now. We continue to hold it and look to adjust in case we sense a direction emerging. _______________________________________________________________________________________ In case of a Breakout we are looking at 18720 odd levels as our target level in case of a breakdown we are looking at a possibility of roughly 17294 odd levels. _______________________________________________________________________________________ To trade with me, Do Like and Follow for getting more trading ideas like these...!!! PLs note: Logic behind using 21 day EMA and 63 day EMA instead of standard 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA - In a month we have 30 days. - barring Saturday / Sunday we have roughly 22 days - 1 holiday session factored in per month - That gives us 21 trading sessions in a month - Multiply by 3 months we get 63 days For me, this represents 1 month and 3 month average trade more precisely, than standard 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA. You are free to follow your own instincts and what works best for you...!!! Trust you find this useful. Take care & happy trading...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTY
by indiamarketoutlook
IOC: Retest of breakout done. Target 84-85 IOC Chart setup - Level of 73 acted as resistance between July 2022-Sept 2022 - breakout was observed in late November 2022 After a month the stock has again come back to retest 73 odd levels If the level is with held the stock can look to propel towards 84-85 odd levels and sequentially towards 90 odd levels ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ My strategy Consider buying Jan expiry 75 Call option between 1.6-2.1 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Understanding reward potential and Risk profile Any upside above 77 is the profit On the downside max downside at cmp is of 1.9 points per lot Take care & safe trading...!!! Do let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful. To trade with me, Do Like and Follow for getting more trading ideas like these...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:IOC
by indiamarketoutlook
Nifty: December monthly Expiry view Nifty - Nifty has had a nice pullback from the lows of 17780 odd levels this week - today it respected 50 day EMA at 18164 odd levels - Will the pullback continue or will it stop??? Let's look at Futures and Options data ____________________________________________________________________________________ F&O Data analysis ____________________________________________________________________________________ Futures Data - Retail participants booked profits / exited 4.4 K Long Contracts & added 7.67 K Short contracts - FIIs added merely 580 Long Contracts and exited from 2.80 K Short Contracts - Pro traders added 5.32 K Long contracts and exited from 1.09 K Short contracts Call Option - Retail participants added 5.93 Lakhs Call Long Contracts & added 4.82 Lakh Call Short contracts - FIIs added 2 K Call Long Contracts and added only 778 Call Short Contracts - Pro traders added 92.56 K Call Long contracts and added 2.04 Lakh Call Short contracts Put Option - Retail participants added 3.85 Lakh Put Long Contracts & added 3.80 Lakh Put Short contracts - FIIs added 5.43 K Put Long Contracts and added 11.85 K Short Contracts - Pro traders added 70.15 K Put Long contracts and added 88.14 K Put Short contracts Put Call ratio is at 1.13 (Neutral zone) ____________________________________________________________________________________ What we make from the data reading... Retail traders have been exiting from Long position since last 3 days. FIIs are in holiday mood ( not trading actively in F&O) Pro traders have been exiting from short positions in Futures in last 3 days and have added Long position in Futures today. They have used Options to hedge their position. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Conclusion and important levels for the day As I am writing, our Dow baba (Dow Jones) is down 300 points, but based on Nifty Chart set up and F&O data, prima facie I'm not expecting a big down fall. The battle is our space in between Pro traders and retail traders. My closing figure for Nifty expiry day On the lower side 18048 / 18033 / 18011 On the upper side 18155 / 18181 / 18233 With tomorrow being expiry day, pls understand Markets are dynamic and data changes every moment. This view can change during market hours and I may or may not be able to update the same. Trading Options on expiry day require more skills, more study and then there is luck that may favor you :-). Pls do your research and follow risk management. Read the disclaimer carefully. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Do let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful. Like and Follow for more ideas like these...!!! Take care & safe trading...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTY
by indiamarketoutlook
Nifty: Was I lucky, was it a fluke or was it a reward for study?Yesterday night, I had put forth an analysis where I had suggested that not expecting a big down day closing today. Remember that - Dow was down 300 points - Asian markets were down but I had clearly written that this is not about world markets. With FIIs in holiday mood, our Nifty movement will depend on the battle between retail traders and Pro traders. My expectation based on study was Nifty likely to close higher towards 18155 / 18181 / 18233 (those have been highlighted) in yesterday's analysis. Nifty after opening gap down traded at the lower end of the channel till 1 pm. 15 minute candle closing low was 18003 and once it came back above 18011 and sustained, we suggested taking a Long trade at 18017... again it is there in the timeline... Once it broke past 18048 it raced towards the upper end of the channel making a high of 18229 (Broader range given 18233) and then eventually closing the day at 18191 (just 10 points adrift from 18181 level). Not bad I guess.... All the levels identified through analysis have been respected... You can call it a fluke... you can call it a Lucky bouy guess or you can acknowledge that the study paid for the efforts put in... Hope the analysis helped you too. If not, I cant help it. Can't be more precise than this...🤷‍♂️ Take care & safe trading...!!! To trade with me Do hit the Like button and Follow
NSE:NIFTY
by indiamarketoutlook
Nifty: At 50 day EMA and my trading viewNifty In my last take on Nifty futures when it was at 18687, I had given a target of 18258. I exited from the trade in Futures very early ( I too am human and can get scared sometimes) and then went with some Call short position for better risk management. If you see the Nifty Futures chart now... Nifty futures made a low of 18231 / 18223 and so far has managed to stay above 18258 odd levels on closing basis. (400 plus points... Not bad to get the levels right at least from analysis angle) Coming to Nifty Spot chart we see 50 day EMA at 18191 and Nifty managed to stay a tad above so still there is hope for the Bulls for a late Santa Claus rally. Put Call Ratio is at 0.61 Given the set up, and data parameters, I would not consider any short positions for now. My trading setup: I would consider taking a bullish stance for the next 1 - 2 week with 18114 / 18080 in Nifty spot as my SL. If I see things favorable (on the downside Nifty should not breach 18114 -18080 levels), I would consider selling Put options as it provide some margin of safety. On the upper side if Nifty manages to take out 18244-18262) on hourly chart, I might consider some aggressive bets on the long side as well with 50 day EMA or 18178 as my SL . Pharma sector showed some promise today and could be the dark horse going forward. Keep a watch on the sector. Do let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful. Like and Follow for more ideas like these...!!! Take care & safe trading...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTYLong
by indiamarketoutlook
10
Asian Paints: How to play a channelAsian Paints The Chart set up - Since Oct 2022 the stock has been trading in a channel - chart is not strong but with crude prices stabilizing at lower side it favors the sector as oil is one of the major raw material. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Trading plan One way to trade this is : Wait for the stock to give a sustained breakout from the channel. Ideally a 3 day close beyond the channel limits should be good cue. Then play for the size of the channel in that direction (roughly 150-180 points in the direction of breakout can be looked as target in this case) Second way to trade this Play for a Non directional trade The limits of the channel are roughly 3240-3244 on the upside and 3018-3030 on the downside Given the set up, consider a short strangle strategy to start with. Sell 3250 Call and Sell 3000 Put In case stock moves out of range, have a plan to Adjust your strategy to a directional one. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Understanding reward potential and risk profile In scenario 2: The Strike Price chosen covers the known risk (Channel limits) It provides a profit potential of approximately 13400 per strategy lot (approximately 11.5% ROI on margin requirement). Take advantage of time decay in case the stock stays within the range. In addition, there is in built protection against loss for a fall up to 2933 on the downside and 3317 on the upside till 25 Jan 2023 expiry day. This should give ample scope to adjust strategy in case stock moves out of range. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Do let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful. To trade with me Like and Follow for more trading ideas like these...!!! Take care & safe trading...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:ASIANPAINT
by indiamarketoutlook
2