EURUSD seesaws within bear flag ahead of EU/US PMI for AprilEURUSD struggles to defend the previous week’s rebound from a yearly low as traders await preliminary readings of the Eurozone and the US PMI data for April. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, sluggish prints of the RSI (14) and the MACD signals also suggest a lack of momentum. Even so, the sellers appear hopeful as the major currency pair stays within a fortnight-old bear flag chart formation. Additionally favoring the Euro bears is the quote’s sustained trading beneath the 10-week-old horizontal region, previous support surrounding 1.0700-690, as well as a downward-sloping support-turned-resistance line stretched from late February, close to 1.0680 at the latest. Even if the major currency pair manages to defy the bearish chart formation by crossing the 1.0705 upside hurdle, the 200-SMA level of 1.0810 and a falling resistance line from early March, near 1.0840 as we write, will act as the final defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls.
Alternatively, EURUSD sellers should wait for a clear downside break of the 1.0620 for fresh entry as it will confirm the bear flag chart formation. Following that, the monthly low of 1.0600 and the previous yearly low surrounding 1.0445 will act as buffers during the quote’s theoretical south-run suggesting 1.0315 as a target. It’s worth noting that early 2023 swing lows near 1.0515 and 1.0480 become extra downside filters for the bears to watch during the Euro’s theoretical fall between 1.0620 and 1.0315.
Overall, EURUSD is likely to remain bearish unless crossing 1.0705. However, the sellers need strong US PMI, as well as too weak activity data from the bloc, to confirm the bear flag formation suggesting a major decline in prices.
Fxtrading
GBPUSD rebounds from Golden Fibonacci ratio, “Falling Wedge” eyeGBPUSD bears take a breather after a two-week downtrend as the quote bounces off the lowest level since mid-November 2023. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its run-up from October 2023 to February 2024, also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”, while justifying the traders’ consolidation ahead of this week’s key UK/US catalysts. That said, the oversold RSI line and a receding bearish bias on the MACD favor the quote’s further rebound, which in turn highlights the monthly falling wedge bullish chart formation. However, the pair’s successful trading beyond 1.2440 becomes necessary to lure the buyers. Even so, a 4.5-month-old previous support line and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 1.2545 and 1.2560, will be the key upside hurdles to test the Cable’s north-run.
On the contrary, the aforementioned key Fibonacci retracement support restricts the immediate downside of the GBPUSD pair to around 1.2360. Following that, the stated falling wedge’s bottom line, near 1.2345 at the latest, quickly followed by the October 2023 peak of 1.2337, could act as the final defense of the Pound Sterling buyers before surrendering to the sellers. In that case, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.2220 will be in the spotlight before the late 2023 bottoms around 1.2070 and 1.2037.
Overall, the GBPUSD pair’s corrective bounce appears overdue but the road toward the north will be long and bumpy.
EURUSD stays pressured toward 1.0600 amid risk-aversionEURUSD extends the previous day’s pullback from a four-month-old support-turned-resistance as sour sentiment underpins the US Dollar demand early Friday. In doing so, the Euro pair takes clues from the bearish MACD signals while paying little attention to the RSI (14) line suggesting a weak support for the current momentum. With this, the quote appears well set to revisit the latest trough surrounding the 1.0600. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s October-December upside, near 1.0595, will join the downbeat RSI conditions to challenge the bears afterward. Should the sellers keep the reins past 1.0595, 1.0520 and 1.0495 may act as intermediate halts before directing the prices toward the previous yearly bottom surrounding 1.0450.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned previous support line from December 2023, close to 1.0675, guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair ahead of the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level near 1.0690. In a case where the Euro pair rises past 1.0690, and also crosses the 1.0700 threshold, the early-month bottom around 1.0725 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0800 will challenge the upside moves. Above all, the bull’s dominance needs validation from a convergence of the four-month-old resistance line and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, around 1.0880.
To sum up, the EURUSD pair is likely to remain weak but the room toward the south appears limited.
AUDUSD extends recovery on mixed data but stays on bear's radarAUDUSD prints mild gains around mid-0.6400s despite mixed outcomes of the Aussie employment report and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) quarterly Bulletin. In doing so, the risk-barometer pair also cheers the US Dollar’s pullback, as well as cautious optimism in the market, while defending the previous day’s rebound from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside. It’s worth noting, however, that bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beneath the support-turned-line stretched from early November, close to 0.6510 at the latest, challenge the buyers. Even if the pair manages to remain firmer past 0.6510, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.6550 and a 3.5-month-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding 0.6640-50 will be crucial for the bulls to cross before retaking control.
Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s fresh selling could aim for the retest of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 0.6380. Following that, the nearly oversold RSI (14) and an ascending support trend line stretched from late 2022, around 0.6350 at the latest, will be the key test for the bears. Should the quote remain weak past 0.6350, the odds of witnessing a slower grind toward the previous yearly low of 0.6270 and the year 2022 bottom of 0.6170 can’t be ruled out.
Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s latest rebound could be considered an opportunity for fresh selling. However, the fundamentals need to be watched carefully before taking positions.
GBPUSD hovers at five-month low, UK Inflation, BoE’s Bailey eyedGBPUSD traders lick their wounds at the lowest level in five months early Wednesday as the monthly UK inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey loom. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, the oversold RSI (14) also challenges the Pound Sterling sellers at a multi-day bottom. With this, the corrective bounce can aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Cable’s run-up from September 2023 to March 2024, close to 1.2465, if backed by upbeat UK data and hawkish comments from BoE’s Bailey. It’s worth noting, however, that an ascending resistance line from early December, previous support around 1.2545, will precede the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2565 to test the buyers afterward. Above all, a convergence of the 50-EMA and a five-week-old downward-sloping trend line, near 1.2625 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls before retaking control.
On the contrary, downbeat UK inflation clues and BoE Governor Bailey’s failure to convince policy hawks could join the bearish MACD signals to exert downside pressure on the GBPUSD pair. In that case, a horizontal area comprising lows marked in November 2023, close to 1.2370-75, will lure the Pound Sterling bears. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and October 2023 peak, respectively near 1.2365 and 1.2330, could test the sellers. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.2330, the odds of witnessing a southward trajectory toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and then to the previous yearly low, near 1.2220 and 1.2035 in that order, can’t be ruled out.
Overall, GBPUSD bears appear running out of steam but the road toward the north appears long and bumpy.
EURPLN - TRADE ON LONG SIDESymbol - EURPLN
EURPLN is currently trading at 4.25400
I'm seeing a trading opportunity on buy side.
Buying EURPLN pair at CMP 4.25400
I will be adding more if 4.23000 comes & will hold with SL of 4.22000
Targets I'm expecting are 4.28500 - 4.30500 & beyond.
Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
USDJPY hovers around multi-year high as bulls run out of steamUSDJPY edges higher past 154.00 while making rounds to the 34-year top marked the previous day, mildly bid within a four-month-old rising trend channel early Tuesday. In doing so, Yen pair buyers take a breather at the multi-year high as the overbought RSI (14) line joins sluggish market conditions. It’s worth noting, however, that the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beyond a 6.5-month-old ascending resistance line, now support around 151.85, keep the bulls in the driver's seat. That said, the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the pair’s December-March moves and the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 153.05 and 152.00, restrict the quote’s immediate downside. Following that, a two-month-old horizontal support zone near 150.90-80 and the aforementioned bullish channel’s support line, close to 149.60 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the pair buyers, a successful break of which could give control to the bears.
Meanwhile, the 78.6% FE level surrounding 154.85 guards the immediate upside of the USDJPY pair ahead of the multi-month-old rising trend channel’s top line, near 155.20 as we write. It’s worth mentioning that the Yen pair’s sustained run-up beyond 155.20 will need validation from the June 1990 peak of 155.80 to keep the bulls in control. Following that, the pair’s gradual advances toward the 100% FE level of 157.15 can’t be ruled out. That said, the 156.00 and the 157.00 round figures will act as intermediate halts during the rise.
Overall, the USDJPY pair buyers appear exhausted, suggesting a pullback in the prices, but the broadly bullish trend is likely to remain intact unless the quote breaks the 149.60 key support.
GBPUSD sellers attack 1.2540 key support ahead of UK/US dataGBPUSD fades bounce off the yearly low, marked the previous day, following its failure to cross the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ahead of top-tier UK/US data on Friday. Apart from the failure to cross the key EMA hurdle, the bearish MACD signals and lackluster RSI (14) line also suggest a continuation of the Cable pair’s south-run. However, a daily closing beneath an upward-sloping support line stretched from December 2023, close to 1.2540 at the latest, becomes necessary for the bears to tighten the grip. Even so, February’s low of 1.2520 and late 2023 trough surrounding the 1.2500 threshold could challenge the Pound Sterling’s further downside. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s weakness past 1.2500 will make it vulnerable to plunge toward mid-November 2023’s low of near 1.2375.
Alternatively, the GBPUSD pair’s recovery needs a daily closing beyond the 200-EMA level of 1.2567 to convince short-term buyers. Even so, a five-week-old descending resistance line and the monthly high will challenge the Pound Sterling’s further upside around 1.2645 and 1.2710 in that order. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside beyond 1.2710 enables it to confront a four-month-long horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.2790-2805. Following that, the Cable buyer’s ability to renew the yearly high, currently around 1.2900, can’t be ruled out.
Overall, the GBPUSD pair is on the way to bear’s platter as a slew of monthly UK data dump and the US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index occupy Friday’s economic calendar.
EURUSD pares the biggest daily loss in 13 months on ECB DayWednesday’s strong US inflation data and hawkish Fed Minutes portrayed the EURUSD pair’s biggest daily slump since March 2023. Even so, the Euro pair failed to conquer a five-month-old rising support line, close to 1.0730 by the press time. The inability to break important support joins the market’s consolidation ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision to trigger the quote’s corrective bounce. However, the below 50.00 status of the RSI (14) line joins the bearish MACD signals to challenge the bullish bias, which in turn highlights the aforementioned 1.0730 support for the sellers to watch. Following that, the yearly low of 1.0695 and the mid-November 2023 bottom surrounding 1.0655 will act as the final defenses of the bulls.
On the contrary, a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s October-December 2023 upside, close to 1.0795, quickly followed by the 1.0800 threshold, cap the immediate upside of the EURUSD. Even if the quote manages to remain firmer past 1.0800, 200-SMA and 100-SMA will challenge the Euro buyers around 1.0830 and 1.0870 respectively. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside past 1.0870 remains inconclusive for the bulls unless crossing a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from December 2023, near 1.0900 threshold at the latest.
To sum up, the EURUSD pair consolidates heavy losses ahead of the key ECB event, as well as the US PPI data. However, the bullish bias appears less convincing below 1.0900, especially when the ECB is likely to announce a dovish halt.
RSI divergence prods gold bulls, US inflation, Fed Minutes eyedGold price makes rounds to the record top early Wednesday as market players await the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, a bearish RSI divergence on the four-hour chart also challenges the XAUUSD buyers. That said, the lower low in the RSI (14) line contrasts with the higher high in the bullion prices to portray the bearish divergence and tease the sellers. However, a week-long bullish trend channel, currently between $2,314 and $2,375, restricts the precious metal’s short-term moves. Even if the prices drop beneath the $2,314 support, the bears need validation from the $2,300 threshold and convergence of the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a 1.5-month-old rising trend line, close to $2,245-42, to retake control.
Meanwhile, a fresh upside in the Gold price could aim for the stated bullish channel’s top line, around $2,375 at the latest. Following that, the 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s February-March moves, near $2,398, will precede the $2,400 threshold to lure the XAUUSD buyers. It’s worth noting that the precious metal’s advances past $2,400 won’t hesitate to aim for the $2,500 psychological magnet.
Overall, the Gold buyers are running out of steam ahead of this week’s top-tier data/events.
NZDUSD grinds higher past 0.6000 ahead of RBNZ, US InflationNZDUSD remains positive around 0.6035-40 early Tuesday, despite lacking upside momentum of late. In doing so, the Kiwi pair defends the previous week’s rebound from the lowest level since November 2023 while portraying the trader’s anxiety ahead of Wednesday’s monetary policy announcements from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It should be noted that the recovery in price takes the support of the upbeat RSI (14) conditions and the bullish MACD signals, which in turn suggests brighter chances of the quote’s further advances. However, the 200-SMA and a five-month-old previous support line, respectively near 0.6070 and 0.6115, appear tough nuts to crack for the bulls. In a case where the buyers manage to keep the reins past 0.6115, the odds of witnessing a gradual run-up toward a four-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6220 can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s October-November upside, close to the 0.6000 psychological magnet, restricts the immediate downside of the NZDUSD pair. Following that, the aforementioned horizontal area comprising lows marked since mid-November 2023, near 0.5940, will be the key challenge for the Kiwi pair sellers to pass before retaking control. Should the pair remain bearish past 0.5940, the November 14 low of around 0.5860 will act as the final defense of the buyers before driving prices down to the previous yearly bottom of 0.5773.
Overall, the NZDUSD pair is likely to extend the latest rebound ahead of the RBNZ and the US CPI, unless the output of the data/events suggests otherwise.
EURUSD bears attack six-month-old support ahead of Fed inflationEURUSD remains pressured at the lowest level in five weeks, down for the fourth consecutive day, as market players await the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data for February. In doing so, the Euro pair pokes the key support line stretched from early October 2023 while extending its fall from a convergence of the 200-day and the 50-day SMAs. That said, the bearish MACD signals and the pair’s failure to extend the week-start rebound beyond the key SMA joint keep the sellers hopeful. Also adding strength to the downside bias is a looming death-cross on the daily chart, a condition where the 50-SMA crosses the 200-SMA from above. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) line is sliding towards the oversold territory, which in turn suggests limited downside room for the quote. As a result, an area comprising the 1.0700 round figure and the previous monthly low of near 1.0695 will test the bears. Following that, a downward-slopping support line from December, close to 1.0675 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the buyers.
Meanwhile, the 1.0800 round figure guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair ahead of the aforementioned SMA confluence, near 1.0835-40 by the press time. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 1.0840, the 1.0900 threshold and a three-month-long descending resistance line surrounding 1.0940 will be crucial to watch before welcoming the Euro buyers. In a case where the bulls keep the reins past 1.0940, the monthly high of 1.0981 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet will act as the additional upside filters before giving control to the bulls.
Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to witness further downside ahead of the key US data. However, the Good Friday holiday will restrict the market’s reaction to the statistics.
GBPUSD sellers need validation from 1.2565 and UK/US GDPGBPUSD prints mild losses around 1.2630 while paring the first weekly gains in three, so far, as traders await Thursday’s final prints of the UK and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024. In doing so, the Pound Sterling struggles to defend the previous week’s rebound from the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) amid downbeat RSI (14) line. However, the bearish MACD signals and the Cable pair’s sustained trading beneath the convergence of 50-EMA and previous support line stretched from early February, around 1.2680 at the latest, keep the sellers hopeful. That said, the quote needs to provide a daily closing beneath the 200-EMA level of 1.2565 to confirm the further downside. Following that, the yearly low of 1.2518 and December 2023 bottom surrounding 1.2500 will act as the final defense of the bulls.
On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the 1.2680 resistance confluence comprising the 50-EMA and the previous support line could recall the GBPUSD pair buyers. Should the quote remain firmer past 1.2680, the 15-week-old horizontal resistance zone will challenge the bulls around 1.2795-2805. In a case where the Pound Sterling rises beyond 1.2805, the yearly peak of 1.2893 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight.
Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains bearish ahead of the key UK/US GDP data but the downside room appears limited.
Bullish pennant teases Gold buyers despite latest inactionGold price remains lackluster within a three-week-old trading range, struggling to extend the weekly rebound by the press time. However, a gradually firming RSI (14) line joins the bullish MACD signals and a one-week-long bull pennant to keep the XAUUSD buyers hopeful. That said, the aforementioned trading range’s top surrounding $2,188 guards the immediate upside of the bullion ahead of the stated pennant’s peak of near $2,195, quickly followed by the $2,200 threshold. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past $2,200, the odds of witnessing a new all-time high, currently around $2,222, can’t be ruled out. In that case, $2,265 could gain the buyer’s attention ahead of the $2,300 round figure.
Alternatively, a downside break of $2,165 will defy the bullish pennant chart formation and could quickly fetch the Gold price toward the previously mentioned trading range’s bottom of near $2,146-42. In a case where the XAUUSD drops beneath the $2,142 support, an ascending support line stretched from mid-February, close to the $2,100 psychological magnet at the latest, will be crucial to watch. Should the bullion remain weak past $2,100, the late December 2023 peak surrounding $2,090 will be the last defense of the Gold buyers before giving control to the sellers.
Overall, Gold price remains bullish unless breaking $2,090 support even if the upside room appears limited ahead of the key US data, namely the US GDP and Core PCE Price Index.
200-SMA tests AUDUSD rebound from six-week-old supportAUDUSD struggles to defend the week-start recovery from an ascending support line stretched from early February as traders await the key US Durable Goods Orders and the Aussie inflation data, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. In doing so, the risk-barometer pair jostles with the 200-SMA hurdle surrounding 0.6555. It’s worth noting that the market’s cautious mood joins the sluggish MACD and steady RSI (14) line to raise doubts about the quote’s further upside. Even if the buyers manage to cross the key SMA hurdle, an 11-week-old horizontal resistance surrounding 0.6635-40 will be a tough nut to crack for them before retaking control.
Meanwhile, AUDUSD sellers should wait for the aforementioned data, as well as the pair’s daily closing beneath the multi-day-old support line, close to 0.6515 by the press time, before entering. Even so, the monthly low of 0.6477 and February’s bottom of 0.6442 will challenge the quote’s downside. Following that, the bears could gain a free hand in targeting the 0.6400 round figure and the late 2023 swing low of near 0.6270.
Overall, AUDUSD pares recent losses ahead of the key data/events but the recovery appears less convincing.
USDJPY eases from key resistance, focus on US, Japan inflationUSDJPY remains pressured towards 151.00 while keeping the previous day’s U-turn from a five-month-old horizontal resistance zone amid Monday’s sluggish Asian session. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies the RSI (14) line’s divergence with the latest high in prices. However, the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s successful trading above the resistance-turned-support line stretched from mid-November 2023, close to 150.30 by the press time, challenge the pair sellers. Even if the quote drops below 150.30, the 150.00 psychological magnet and January’s high of 148.80 will test the bears before directing them toward the 200-SMA support of 146.70.
On the contrary, the USDJPY pair buyers need to provide a daily closing beyond the multiple tops marked since October 2023 near the 151.90-70 region to retake control. Even so, the year 2022 peak of around 151.95 and the 152.00 threshold will challenge the Yen pair buyers before directing prices toward the tops marked in 1990 around 155.80 and 160.40. In doing so, the quote will also need to jostle with the 160.00 round figure. Apart from the multiple hurdles toward the north, the US Core PCE Price Index and Japan’s Tokyo CPI also act as the key challenges for the pair buyers to tackle to keep the reins.
Overall, the USDJPY buyers need strong catalysts to defend the latest run-up.
AUDUSD sellers should keep eyes on 0.6510 and Fed talksAUDUSD stays on the way to posting a second consecutive weekly loss while reversing the post-FOMC rally. In doing so, the Aussie pair portrays a U-turn from an 11-week-old horizontal resistance surrounding 0.6640 amid a pullback in the RSI (14) line from overbought territory and a looming bear cross on the MACD. Also keeping the pair sellers hopeful is the clear downside break of the 200-SMA, close to 0.6545 at the latest. It’s worth noting, however, that an upward-sloping support line from mid-February, near 0.6510 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Following that, the yearly bottom surrounding 0.6440 and the previous yearly trough surrounding 0.6270 will lure the pair sellers.
Meanwhile, AUDUSD buyers remain off the grid below 0.6640 but an intermediate recovery can’t be ruled out if the quote manages to stay beyond the 200-SMA level of 0.6545. That said, the pair’s successful trading above 0.6640 allows it to cross the 0.6700 round figure while 0.6730 and 0.6780 could challenge the bulls afterward. In a case where the buyers keep the reins past 0.6780, the late 2023 swing high of near 0.6870 seems a welcome level for them.
Overall, AUDUSD is likely to witness further downside but the room toward the south appears limited.
GBPUSD bulls keep eyes on 1.2900 and BoEGBPUSD bulls take a breather at a weekly high, after rising the most in a fortnight the previous day, as traders await the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcements on Thursday. Also important will be the preliminary UK S&P Global/CIPS PMIs for March. That said, the quote’s successful break of a two-week-old descending resistance line, now support, as well as the 50-SMA, joins the bullish MACD signals to keep the buyers hopeful. However, a horizontal resistance area comprising tops marked since March 08, close to 1.2820-25, will join the overbought RSI line to challenge the Pound Sterling’s further upside. In a case where the Cable pair remains firmer past 1.2825, the odds of witnessing a quick run-up toward the monthly high surrounding 1.2900 can’t be ruled out.
On the flip side, the 50-SMA and the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line could restrict the short-term downside of the GBPUSD pair to around 1.2760 and 1.2740 respectively. Following that, a convergence of the 200-SMA and a five-week-old rising trend line, near 1.2670 by the press time, will be a tough nut to crack for the Cable sellers. Should the quote remain bearish past 1.2670, the monthly low of around 1.2600 and the previous monthly bottom surrounding 1.2520 will be in the spotlight.
To sum up, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish halt allowed GBPUSD to cross the short-term upside hurdle and lure the buyers ahead of the key UK PMIs and the BoE monetary policy decisions. It’s worth noting that the BoE isn’t expected to offer any change in the current monetary policy but can push back the rate cut bias toward late 2024 and help the British Pound (GBP) to defend the latest run-up.
Gold grinds within $15 trading range as Fed decision loomsGold price licks its wounds around the mid-$2,100s while portraying a choppy move between the one-week-old descending resistance line and $2,148 support confluence comprising the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the previous yearly high. In doing so, the XAUUSD depicts the market’s cautious mood ahead of the all-important monetary policy decision from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) while consolidating the previous weekly loss, the first in four. It’s worth noting that the overbought RSI (14) line and an impending bear cross on the MACD favor downside bias for the precious metal. In that case, a daily closing beneath $2,148 becomes necessary for the sellers to retake control. Following that, the late December 2023 peak of around $2,090 will be a quick favorite for the bears before the tops marked during early 2024 around $2,065. It’s worth noting that the $2,100 round figure also acts as a downside filter for the bullion.
On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the one-week-old descending resistance line surrounding $2,163 could quickly propel the Gold price toward the recent all-time high of near $2,195. Should the quote remain firmer past $2,195, the $2,200 round figure will challenge the XAUUSD bulls. It should be observed that an upward-sloping resistance line from May 2023 also highlights the $2,200 threshold as an important hurdle toward the north.
Overall, the Gold price is likely to depict a downside move unless the US Federal Reserve (Fed) disappoints the US Dollar bulls by resisting the hawkish performance.